The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

It seems that RUSI is not as optimistic as IISS.

The Kremlin can Afford the Luxury of a Second Anti-NATO Front

Russia's grey-zone warfare against Europe comes at a fraction of the cost of the conflict in Ukraine.

www.rusi.org

"The Russian economy is a mess – as Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) assessments show. And BOFIT has been tracking the Russian economy for 30 years.
...
Still, the snag is that this day of reckoning for the Russian economy is still rather a long way off. Of itself, the economy could stagger on like this for 3-5 years. Russia is likely to remain an economy in decline judged by almost any calculus, except in its ability to wage war."

Enough Ukrainians for those 5 years? Do we want to keep paying the bill for those 5 years? Maybe US doesn't.
I am also a bit skeptical about one little detail: Russia has suffered ~1.400.000 losses?

 

[Feanor]

It seems that RUSI is not as optimistic as IISS.

The Kremlin can Afford the Luxury of a Second Anti-NATO Front

Russia's grey-zone warfare against Europe comes at a fraction of the cost of the conflict in Ukraine.

www.rusi.org

"The Russian economy is a mess – as Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) assessments show. And BOFIT has been tracking the Russian economy for 30 years.
...
Still, the snag is that this day of reckoning for the Russian economy is still rather a long way off. Of itself, the economy could stagger on like this for 3-5 years. Russia is likely to remain an economy in decline judged by almost any calculus, except in its ability to wage war."

Enough Ukrainians for those 5 years? Do we want to keep paying the bill for those 5 years? Maybe US doesn't.
I am also a bit skeptical about one little detail: Russia has suffered ~1.400.000 losses?

I'm also suspicious of those casualty figures, and of the part where they say a 8-9% budget deficit would be all that bad. I also have to wonder if their GDP data includes economic activities in annexed areas, many of which are economically productive and areas like Donetsk, Lugansk, and Crimea definitely provide recruits for the war.