The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

So if you decide to shoot your neighbours poodle because you personally think that it is a threat that's just fine and dandy eh?

What if your neighbour decides that your goldfish is a threat should your neighbour break into your house and kill your goldfish?

The better analogy is that you neighbor decides your goldfish is a threat, then claims that you are a nazi, then burns your house down.

 

[Feanor]

Do you see widespread political agitation to stop fighting ? Do you see defense contractors deliberately leaving orders unfilled ? Is there sabotage of vehicles and munitions ?

We are probably quibbling over definitions, but without the above, there is clear evidence of the desire to not be Russian.

Now, no one can doubt this is changing over time:

Ukrainian Support for War Effort Collapses

New data from Ukraine show the public favors ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has plummeted.

news.gallup.com

With an increase in "Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible" this points to war weariness- but this is not the same as surrender. I take (collective) desire to not fight = surrender.

Yes I think we are quibbling about definitions. The reality is, Ukraine is out of volunteers who want to fight, or are even willing to obey mobilization orders, but hasn't reached the point where the population is willing to surrender. Though it's heading there.

Quantitatively, sure, but the presence of draft dodgers alone doesnt imply anything other than the human nature to not get killed. We are agreeing in principle and disagreeing to the extent of "wanting to fight".

Once we see several of the following, you can be sure the wheels have fallen off the UKR war effort:

- polling indicating the desire to end the war no matter what
- mass protests
- domestic war production suffering from strikes or other logistic disruptions
- widespread, continued RU advances with lower casualty rates

Russian advances are widespread, continuing, and have lower casualty rates than years past from what I've seen. The current mobilization effort requires considerable violence to the would-be recruits, and the TCC is generally despised throughout Ukrainian society. We've also had protests, including ones that broke into TCCs and released mobilized personnel. It's not about the presence of draft dodgers. It's about the absence of non-draft dodgers. But if you mean that it can get worse, and Ukraine isn't at the breaking point, then yes. That's true. As a Russian joke goes, when I hit rock bottom, I heard someone knocking from below.

 

[crest]

Do you see widespread political agitation to stop fighting ? Do you see defense contractors deliberately leaving orders unfilled ? Is there sabotage of vehicles and munitions ?

We are probably quibbling over definitions, but without the above, there is clear evidence of the desire to not be Russian.

Now, no one can doubt this is changing over time:

Ukrainian Support for War Effort Collapses

New data from Ukraine show the public favors ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has plummeted.

news.gallup.com

With an increase in "Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible" this points to war weariness- but this is not the same as surrender. I take (collective) desire to not fight = surrender.



Quantitatively, sure, but the presence of draft dodgers alone doesnt imply anything other than the human nature to not get killed. We are agreeing in principle and disagreeing to the extent of "wanting to fight".

Once we see several of the following, you can be sure the wheels have fallen off the UKR war effort:

- polling indicating the desire to end the war no matter what
- mass protests
- domestic war production suffering from strikes or other logistic disruptions
- widespread, continued RU advances with lower casualty rates

I would have to disagree there desertion numbers like that are definitely a result of people not believing the fight is winnable/worth dieing for or they don't want to be there especially as there is no way out once in. Also considering they in many cases didn't volunteer to join, in fact we're litterity forcibly kidnapped off the streets and sent to the front with little training....those factors explain the manpower issue alot better then any other explanation I have heard. The multiple examples of soldiers themselves saying these things also lends alot of credit to the idea that at least as far as from fighting is concerned, the war is Infact quite unpopular. Tho there is of course a solid and large group that is commited to the fight problom is as far as recruitment goes there already fighting.

Russia for example has more soldiers in the Feild then Ukraine but way less desertions shouldn't human nature apply equally to both sides?