The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

What are the drivers regarding this life expectancy? Why is it ~70 in Russia? How many of them apply to Putin? As someone said "rich 50 is middle class 40". It's not completely true, but certainly not completely untrue.

But the wider question is, what happens if Putin does die? Would that end the war?

I think the ~70 is an unweighted average across RU for all men. Answers vary from website to website. All of them seem to agree that the gap between men and women is quite large.

So if Putin dies tomorrow, who is in charge ? Is there a vice-president ?

 

[KipPotapych]

^ It’s prime minister who becomes an interim president until election is held.

Edit: and if he dies before then, it is the minister of foreign affairs, if I recall correctly.

 

[Feanor]

I think the ~70 is an unweighted average across RU for all men. Answers vary from website to website. All of them seem to agree that the gap between men and women is quite large.

So if Putin dies tomorrow, who is in charge ? Is there a vice-president ?

^ It’s prime minister who becomes an interim president until election is held.

Edit: and if he dies before then, it is the minister of foreign affairs, if I recall correctly.

I believe Prime Minister takes over for a few months and then elections are supposed to be held.

 

[KipPotapych]

I know prime minister is the next in line for sure. But can’t recall if it is Matvienko or Lavrov come after if the prime minister departs too. Before election is held. One or the other, number three and four. Imagine Matvienko getting the throne.

Edit: it is ether Matvienko or one of the deputy prime ministers. Foreign minister is not part of the equation, apparently.

 

[seaspear]

How likely is a change of leadership would lead to changes of policy and law introduced under President Putin and supported in the Russian parliament ,press censorship is extreme and voting is likely to follow media narrative

 

[KipPotapych]

^ I outlined on the previous page what I think would be the most likely scenario. In short, in my opinion, the best case scenario for Ukraine would freezing at the current line of contact, which seems to be the goal now anyway.

But again, I really do not see the relevance because, like even Burns said a couple of years ago:

Vladimir Putin is “entirely too healthy,” CIA Director William Burns said Wednesday, throwing cold water on constant rumors that the Russian president is suffering from illness as he pursues his war on Ukraine.

Burns, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, noted that his declaration was “not a formal intelligence judgment.” Still, given his position, Burns’ comment could help dampen hopes among Putin’s adversaries that the Russian’s demise is near.

CIA director: Putin 'too healthy'

William Burns' comment is a blow to Putin's critics who believed the Russian leader was ill.

www.politico.com

 

[KipPotapych]

These reports:



I am wondering how does this make any sense if Trump’s pivot (officially) happened after him personally meeting with Putin? Are there records of the Anchorage meeting? Surely this was discussed there without any doubt. Doesn’t make much sense to me. Either media reports are wrong or Witkoff is being prepared to become a scapegoat for the upcoming failure.

Yermak and some others from UA administration (I don’t remember who) are reportedly meeting Witkoff tomorrow to talk security guarantees.