I think the question is not even what if a worse person comes to power if Putin kicks the bucket, but, as Feanor put it, simply what happens if he does suddenly die. And I think it is crucial to realistically asses the possibilities. As far as the war situation is concerned, the perspective of better outcome for Ukraine is rather bleak. This is not exactly an appropriate example, but consider the death of Stalin and Khrushchev taking over the reins and, for those familiar with the subject, the following “Stalin’s personality cult” theme unfolding. What has changed for those outside the USSR? There was the Cuban missile crisis a decade later. Soviet Union existed for 3 more decades after that. And the collapse happened after a relatively weak leader came to power, in the country in the deep crisis and an urgent need for reforms.
Putin, however, is not even remotely close to Stalin. And Russia is not a Soviet Union. Russian society is not a Soviet society. So while the example is not exactly appropriate, I think perspective is important. Even if we assume a completely unrealistic scenario of some “liberal”, what they call them in Russia, coming to power, what is going to change in Ukraine? The best case scenario, in my opinion, is the war would stop at the line of contact and great concessions will be expected for return of any territory that makes sense to return (basically where we are today, but with expectations of bright future and “reload” of diplomatic relations, etc). This is why many people criticize people like Yashin, Kara-Murza, and the like. They criticize them for their “weak” and almost mumbling position on Ukraine. It seems that people are completely oblivious to the fact that these “wanna be politicians”, really, still represent Russia and
want to represent Russian people, not Ukraine and its people, or some other nation. And these are the most “liberal politicians” that Russia has to offer. Their support in Russia, however, is probably within (a large) margin of error. What is also likely within the margin of error, if that, is the desire to stop the war, abandon the captured territory, and basically meet the Ukrainian demands. There is simply no way this is going to happen, regardless of who comes to power if Putin has a stroke tomorrow and turns into vegetable or is buried a few days later.
Of course, this discussion is quite outside the brackets of a reasonable one to begin with because building your strategy on an expectation of Putin suddenly dying is ridiculous. But the fact that even if this unlikely contingency does happen, things are not likely to get much better for Ukraine should certainly be taken into account and, hence, it should not be seriously considered in any strategic planning.
Perhaps with Putin gone Russians will grow tired of dying over dirt. Maybe they will have their own Maidan or Russian Spring revolution. Yeah I know that's seriously hard to imagine Russians wanting change.
Perhaps, most of those dying for dirt are doing so voluntarily. Perhaps, they believe they are dying for something other than dirt, something much more significant. See, that is the thing that people tend to misunderstand for whatever reason: it’s not about the dirt. Imagine Russia, of all places, caring about some 6,000 sq km of land. Just think about the numbers and costs. To me it is just plain weird that people see the Russians as these dumb apes with no ability to reason on a level even remotely close to an average “westerner”.
As for change, what kind of change are you talking about? Do we want chnage? If we do, what kind of change is it that we want? Again, the assumption that they should want change and, I am assuming what is implied, the desire to be more like us is also pretty weird.
I am going to attach a couple of thoughts here that do not belong to me and have nothing to with this conflict in particular; rather there was no intention by the author for these to be used in this context. These are in no particular order, though there is an order intended by the author within a wider context, which is not followed here.
Just to make it clear before some run ahead with their imagination into a fantasy world, I am
not calling for empathy for Putin or Russian aggression. Other than that, do as you will with these. My sincere apologies to the Mr Dalio for using these in the context never intended.
www.politico.eu
www.euronews.com
Edit: Feel like I really missed the opportunity here. Of course, it should have been “just piece”.