The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Feanor said:
What are the drivers regarding this life expectancy? Why is it ~70 in Russia? How many of them apply to Putin? As someone said "rich 50 is middle class 40". It's not completely true, but certainly not completely untrue.

But the wider question is, what happens if Putin does die? Would that end the war?
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I think the ~70 is an unweighted average across RU for all men. Answers vary from website to website. All of them seem to agree that the gap between men and women is quite large.

So if Putin dies tomorrow, who is in charge ? Is there a vice-president ?
 
K

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ It’s prime minister who becomes an interim president until election is held.

Edit: and if he dies before then, it is the minister of foreign affairs, if I recall correctly.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
vikingatespam said:
I think the ~70 is an unweighted average across RU for all men. Answers vary from website to website. All of them seem to agree that the gap between men and women is quite large.

So if Putin dies tomorrow, who is in charge ? Is there a vice-president ?
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KipPotapych said:
^ It’s prime minister who becomes an interim president until election is held.

Edit: and if he dies before then, it is the minister of foreign affairs, if I recall correctly.
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I believe Prime Minister takes over for a few months and then elections are supposed to be held.
 
K

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I know prime minister is the next in line for sure. But can’t recall if it is Matvienko or Lavrov come after if the prime minister departs too. Before election is held. One or the other, number three and four. Imagine Matvienko getting the throne.

Edit: it is ether Matvienko or one of the deputy prime ministers. Foreign minister is not part of the equation, apparently.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
How likely is a change of leadership would lead to changes of policy and law introduced under President Putin and supported in the Russian parliament ,press censorship is extreme and voting is likely to follow media narrative
 
K

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ I outlined on the previous page what I think would be the most likely scenario. In short, in my opinion, the best case scenario for Ukraine would freezing at the current line of contact, which seems to be the goal now anyway.

But again, I really do not see the relevance because, like even Burns said a couple of years ago:

KipPotapych said:
Vladimir Putin is “entirely too healthy,” CIA Director William Burns said Wednesday, throwing cold water on constant rumors that the Russian president is suffering from illness as he pursues his war on Ukraine.

Burns, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, noted that his declaration was “not a formal intelligence judgment.” Still, given his position, Burns’ comment could help dampen hopes among Putin’s adversaries that the Russian’s demise is near.

www.politico.com

CIA director: Putin 'too healthy'

William Burns' comment is a blow to Putin's critics who believed the Russian leader was ill.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
These reports:

IMG_2150.jpeg

I am wondering how does this make any sense if Trump’s pivot (officially) happened after him personally meeting with Putin? Are there records of the Anchorage meeting? Surely this was discussed there without any doubt. Doesn’t make much sense to me. Either media reports are wrong or Witkoff is being prepared to become a scapegoat for the upcoming failure.

Yermak and some others from UA administration (I don’t remember who) are reportedly meeting Witkoff tomorrow to talk security guarantees.
 
K

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I said earlier that y’all know what I think when all these news started popping out about the Flamingo, completely unrealistic manufacturing capacity, next Europe’s missile nonsense, and other hype out of nowhere. The answers as to why may have appeared today.

All this Flamingo PR, it seems, was made to put the focus away from the investigation against the manufacturer and (likely falsely and, at the very least, prematurely) show some epic “new” capability that is going to win the war and even sell a whole bunch of these questionable missiles all over Europe to make Ukraine great again, put it out into a public focus. Likely to put the pressure on government to intervene because otherwise, god forbid, the entire (likely way overhyped) wonder project could end up in shambles.

kyivindependent.com

Exclusive: Maker of Ukraine's new Flamingo cruise missile facing corruption probe

Ukraine's anti-corruption agency has been investigating the country's star deep-strike drone company — Fire Point — over concerns it misled the government on pricing and deliveries, five sources with knowledge of the investigation told the Kyiv Independent. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau...
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Of course, I didn’t even consider this kind of angle of the propaganda campaign. I only mostly thought about the following, which dates exactly a year back, and other things I talked about previously:

IMG_2156.jpeg

I really do not understand why people get all hyper and excited at these news after years of worth of lies. Really weird stuff. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me - you can’t get fooled again”.
 
R

Redshift

Active Member
glen_k said:
Curious to hear opinions: who really derailed the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that Trump was reportedly trying to push forward? According to leaks, one side was ready to make compromises, but at the last moment someone made a sharp turn. At that time, Zelensky was in close contact with Western partners. Was the decision made outside of Kyiv? Or in Kyiv, but under pressure?
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Nobody, the whole thing was a charade, a farce, a way for Russia to get the red carpet treatment from Trump without doing a single thing.
 
R

Redshift

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
I know prime minister is the next in line for sure. But can’t recall if it is Matvienko or Lavrov come after if the prime minister departs too. Before election is held. One or the other, number three and four. Imagine Matvienko getting the throne.

Edit: it is ether Matvienko or one of the deputy prime ministers. Foreign minister is not part of the equation, apparently.
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Do you think that constitutional protocol is likely to be followed (in any way that is fair)? History says otherwise in the Putin era and I have a feeling that will not change.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
KipPotapych said:
“Denazification”. I wonder who did the deeds.

news.sky.com

Pro-Western Ukrainian politician and former parliament speaker Andriy Parubiy shot dead in Lviv

Authorities say a manhunt has been launched after the gunman fired several shots at the 54-year-old before fleeing the scene.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
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There have been a few assassinations back and forth that suggest Russia and Ukraine are going after people they perceive as significant on the other side. It's hard to see these as anything other then a crime, the war notwithstanding. If Russia is behind this it might be classified as state-sponsored terrorism.
 
K

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Yes, I agree. However, if I were to bet, I would have hard time choosing (and would probably end up passing altogether) who to bet on.

These “far-right” organizations are going to have substantially more influence than they did prior to the war and I would think that competition among the parties involved is a real thing. We are now talking about guys like Sterneko (pretty much a Nazi) having quite a bit of involvement in the Ukrainian MIC, for instance. I think there are plenty of people who will whack each other in struggle for power. So I wouldn’t assume that it is Russian targeted killing.

Edit to add: What is also significant, in my opinion, the equivalent “very right” individuals were gaining some traction in Russia, but are now mostly kept in check, without any significant support from the population. In Ukraine, on the other hand, these people are pretty much glorified. More importantly, they are also publicized and whitewashed in our media (Sternenko nowadays is simply a youtuber, streetfighter, activist and social influencer, for example). This is very troublesome, in my opinion, as chickens always come home to roost.

On this note, from “the best-known military blogger in Ukraine” (as per the article cited above, ie Sternenko) from the other other day:

IMG_2152.jpeg
 
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