The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vanquish]

Not you can't say that about anything they do. When Russia captured the town of Kurakhovo, you can't say that wasn't a success. You can call it a Pyrrhic victory, but you can't say nothing was accomplished. Here however we have a large scale mechanized assault (a mech company with support elements at least). The target is a couple of small villages. Ukraine doesn't appear to have captured either village, and has lost double digits of vehicles to Russian drone strikes. Contrast that with Ukraine's counter-attacks in Chasov Yar where Russia has pushed into the factory and been pushed back out of it twice now and Ukraine still holds the factory. Those efforts were definitely successful for Ukraine. Ukraine will still eventually lose Chasov Yar, but those specific counter-attacks were successful. Here Ukraine will eventually lose the area too, but this specific effort was not a success.

If you want another example, look at the fighting in the Seversk salient. That's a successful Ukrainian defense. It's been successful for 2+ years and Russian gains are extremely modest for massive expended resources (cumulatively).



Last time I checked nobody invaded the USA. Russia isn't a super power. The USSR was, but the USSR and Russia are two different countries, no matter how much the latter tries to act like it still has the power and influence of the former.

I feel that there are military victories and moral victories. Ukraine desperately needs a victory of any kind after 1048 days of war. I would imagine most news of the war in Ukraine is of what they are doing in the Kursk region, not of what is going on elsewhere. I would expect the opposite to be true in Russia.

I have to think Ukraine opening up a little boil in Russia must be really irritating to Putin especially seeing as they seem to be able to do little about it after 5 months. Politically at the very least that must be embarrassing for Putin although not to the point where he has to stay away from windows.

In regards to Russia being a super power I dare say most of the world believes that. Before their invasion of Ukraine I would have had them as a top three military power. Now after nearly three years of war and still not having control of Ukraine I would agree that Russia's stock is waning.

 

[Feanor]

I feel that there are military victories and moral victories. Ukraine desperately needs a victory of any kind after 1048 days of war. I would imagine most news of the war in Ukraine is of what they are doing in the Kursk region, not of what is going on elsewhere. I would expect the opposite to be true in Russia.

Except... it's never good to let political considerations dictate military decisions like that. Yes the ultimate goals of wars are political but if you expend resources on futile attacks to win "moral" victories, while the enemy continues to roll forward in other areas at a pace that dwarfs your efforts, the end is going to be unpleasant. If this war ends with a ceasefire along the line of contact, retaining an extra few sq kms in Kursk with no population and no economic value won't be nearly as significant as losing Pokrovsk, something that's starting to loom large on the horizon. If Russia feels they can take Pokrovsk reasonable quickly, they may do what they did in '15 when they finished the fight for Debal'tsevo before signing Minks 2.0 so that it would fall on the rebel side of the line. Also from what I've seen in Ukrainian sources, they're not thrilled with Kursk. I'm not sure it scores the kind of victory that one would expect.

I have to think Ukraine opening up a little boil in Russia must be really irritating to Putin especially seeing as they seem to be able to do little about it after 5 months. Politically at the very least that must be embarrassing for Putin although not to the point where he has to stay away from windows.

Well if it annoys Putin then I guess it's good use of resources.

In regards to Russia being a super power I dare say most of the world believes that. Before their invasion of Ukraine I would have had them as a top three military power. Now after nearly three years of war and still not having control of Ukraine I would agree that Russia's stock is waning.

Perception and reality are different, I think that Russia had a chance of becoming one of the future great powers in a multi-polar world. I think this war did a lot to blow those chances. On the flip side none of this seems to have really done much damage to Russian aspirations in Africa, and much of Russia's near-abroad has taken the "wait and see" position. Except Georgia who apparently wants to be friends now. Presumably to avoid the fate of Ukraine.

 

[vikingatespam]

I have to wonder if the lack of focus on stopping RU in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas indicates UKR knows it will be giving those up in the upcoming negotiations. RU territory now is the most valuable negotiating card.

 

[KipPotapych]

I have to wonder if the lack of focus on stopping RU in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas indicates UKR knows it will be giving those up in the upcoming negotiations. RU territory now is the most valuable negotiating card.

I don’t think they would be giving those up. It’s not like they would simply give away Kramatorsk os Sloviansk, for example. I believe Russia controls under 70% of DNR, about 72-73% of Zaporizhia Region, 75% or so of Kherson Region, and something like 99% of LNR (do not quote me on these numbers since they come from my memory). Unless there is a complete collapse of the Ukrainian defences, I do not believe anyone is giving up much of what they are in full control of. If that were not the case, Kursk would have no meaning at all, I do not think (and I actually do not think it is that great of a bargaining chip to begin with, especially with the Russian forces being next to Sudzha now or there about).

 

[rsemmes]

True enough and when a super power gets invaded and can't repulse it, that's kind of embarrassing to.

"Can't" or hasn't tried to? Has Russia deployed enough resources to do the job? From a military point of view, it makes sense to keep Ukrainian forces there, they are not going to take Kursk, but as long as they keep feeding the cauldron...
It is better, for Russia, than a successful defence of Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine has a few places where to deploy troops to do that.