The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kharkov Front.

Russia has entered Ukraine across the border into Kharkov region. This invasion was preceded by a fairly major series of strikes over the past couple of weeks, including some strikes against bridges. Some Ukrainian POWs are already taken, but overall the situation remains murky. In many areas villages go right up to the border, so reports of Russia seizing some villages make sense. The main Ukrainian lines are several kms inside the border, meaning that Russia seizing some villages on the Ukrainian side of the border doesn't necessarily indicate that Ukrainian lines are broken. Ukrainian sources are confirming a Russian zone of control inside the Ukrainian border. So far the fog of war obscures where exactly the Russian advances are, and to what extent, if any, they are successful. Rybar is of the opinion that these are probing attacks, as part of pushing the grey zone back from the Russian border, rather then the start of any major offensive.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
That's what he does. He has annexed all the territories he has invaded. If he takes all Ukraine, piece by piece, he will annex all Ukraine.
Of course. But that doesn't mean this is the intent. If Ukraine fights until loses all of it's territory, it loses all of its territory. If Ukraine is willing to negotiate an end to the war, the door is open. Also let's be clear here, this is a hypothetical. In reality if the front line collapses, Russia won't be taking Kiev or even likely storming the Dnepr. In other words, even a maximum defeat followed by negotiations will still likely not have Putin take all of Ukraine.

Secondly, he and others have often talked about the inexistence of the Ukrainian statehood.
They say Ukraines is and was always part of Russia and its existence is a short accident of history. It's then natural that Ukraine returns to Russia, except the Lvov region which could be given back to Poland (Sergei Kaganov). These people still think like before WWII. Piotr Tolstoi talks about Ukraine as his country and he is the Duma Chairman and candidate to Putin's succession (not Presidential candidate, but the one who will inheritate the presidency after Putin's death.)
I think Russia's intent here is that they won't have NATO on their doorstep, so close to Moscow and other central Russian cities. If this can be achieved by Ukraine recognizing the annexation of Crimea and the LDNR, and remaining outside of NATO (Istanbul Accords) then that will do it. If it requires pummeling Ukraine and taking more territory, then that will do it. If it requires fighting until Ukraine begins to disintegrate as a country, then that will do it. Ukraine has made their position clear; no negotiations with Russia, full stop. Thus option 3 is the one Russia is pursuing.

Clearly, if they could, they would erase Ukraine off the map. But they know that they can't, in the present situation. So their speech is somewhat more realistical. They only talk about what they control already. And this doesn't stop at Ukraine. They have a double language: To western joournalists the Special Military Operation is only to preserve the right of the Russians to speak their own language. At home it's an existential threat to Russia to even let Ukraine to exist because NATO will use it to encircle Russia and because it's full of Nazy. They also show that, on the maps, Ukraine doesn't exist.
I think this is inaccurate. The initial invasion was likely meant to turn Ukraine into a satellite state akin to Belarus, rather then outright annex Ukraine. In other words the intent was not to erase Ukraine off the map.

But the desire to eliminate the Ukrainian state is not the cause of the war.
Putin expected Ukraine to stay a vasal state like Belarus. he prefers to conquer it by force rather than let it be a vasal of others. And he would do the same with Belarus.
I think this is accurate. But your own statement here is at odds with your earlier claims. If you want someone as a vassal, you recognize them as a separate entity. I also don't think vassalage is an accurate description here.

Yes. I was thinking about 2 or 3 nukes. Of course a dozen would have an effect on Ukrainian forces. But these forces are dispersed, not only necause they are stretched thin, but also to avoid one single strike to kill too many soldiers at once. Moreover, a front line has a line shape whereas a nuclear blast forms a large circle. The geometry of nuclear desctruction is not optimal. One tactical nuke could have barely the same effect as 10 well positioned FAB500.
But it wouldn't be a nuke instead of the FABs. It would be nukes in addition to the existing air strikes, which are already having an effect. It also depends on the size of the nuclear munition being used.

In the event of a front collapse and the Russians are able to drive several hundred of km westward, I don't think that Ukraine would be able to oppose further Russian advances. Nukes or no nukes. I don't think that they have much reserves between the front line and Kiev, Lvov and Odessa. Not even talking about Karkov. The Ukrainian government could undertake desperate resistance in the capital because it wouldn't be good for them to be arrested by the Russians. But the population will rather surrender than suffer a siege.
It wouldn't take much in the way of reserves. Russia still doesn't have a way to effectively deal with FPV drones or top-attack ATGMs across large areas of the front. This is why maneuver warfare is impossible. The same way Russia disassembled Ukrainian company tactical groups in their southern counter-offensive, Ukraine disassembled Russian attack groups in '22. Russia could drive some distance forward, but then they would need to pause to regroup and pull up supplies, they can't get too far from their EW umbrella, plus Russia's approach has been to dig and dig and dig whenever they advance, to hold against possible counter-attacks. I think that even with a partially collapsed front line, we're not looking at a drive to the Dnepr.

This is the question everybody would like to get an answer for. It's a big unkown. As far as China provides only dual-goods components and tools, it's hard to blame China because the definition of dual-use is very blurry. After all, China is also providing dual-use things to the West. So we shouldn't complain too much. A Western official even admitted that Europe depends on Chinese machine tools for its military production (just as any other production). Even better: Most of our canon powder is imported from China! And I didn't see any evidence that these imports have slowed down.

China, on one hand, has an interrest in seeing the Ukraine+Nato/Russia conflict lasting, on the other, they don't want to jeopardize their commercial relationship with the West. So they are not going to play with fire.
I don't think China has an interest in seeing this conflict continue. I think for China the most advantageous is a friendly Russia that's not at war with NATO or bogged down in Ukraine. It could provide manufacturing support, technology, and resources, as well as safe trade routes, for China in a potential conflict with the US.

Of course that everybody is concerned about the survival of Ukraine in the most urgent terms. But survival and counter-offensive are linked. If Ukraine can defeat Russian forces to the point that they are not a threat anymore, they will have, ipso factum, the ability to retake some territories.
Talking about a credible counter-offensive in 2025 may be opstimistic, but not extravagant.
I don't understand the link it can have with Trump and the US elections. Trump played the big game by blocking the aid bill. But he didn't want to be responsible for the defeat of Ukraine and the dead of people. He was certainly briefed about the urgency to let the congress act.
Why are you so certain he doesn't want to be responsible for the defeat of Ukraine?

For the West, it would be madness to use the nuclear reply. (But God knows what they can do!). Yet, I don't think their reaction will be limited to ramping up military production.
If I were NATO leaders, I would start by sinking the Russian fleet until no boat is seen on the surface, raid all their air bases within a 1000 miles radius around east-European borders and bomb systematically every Russian troops present in Ukraine. This immediately and unannounced. Then see if they want to fire more nukes.
That's a risky plan. What if the response is a Russian counter-value strike against dozens/hundreds of European and US cities because they believe your intent is to annihilate Russia as a country?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update on Kharkov front.

We now have some picture on the territorial situation, given the map from DeepState and the latest update from Rybar. Suriyakmaps is promising updates this evening. Some Russian sources are claiming ~40 sq kms gained, with 5 villages taken but the map from Rybar shows at least 8 (if I'm reading it right). There appear to be 3 areas of advance. The main is cutting a bulge in the border and this is the one most prominently visible in the DeepState map. There is a smaller attack west of that into Goptovka. And there are several Russian advances east of there, near Volchansk. This isn't implausible, again considering the location of Ukraine's main lines in the area. However whether this is true, and whether Russia can hold the area remains to be seen.


Deepstate UA claims that the reason for Russian successes is poor Ukrainian command in the area who sent up false reports, and misrepresented the situation. They're talking about poor counter-battery fires and mention that Russian forces have entered border areas prior to this, probing for weak spots. They also note that this isn't a push for Kharkov, rather a diversionary attack, but with reserves available to exploit.


A video statement from Ukrainian service members that retreated from Ogurtsovo. A neighboring high ground was taken by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces were ordered to counter-attack twice, but failed. They then "democratically" decided to leave their position because they don't want to die. Note these are personnel near Ogurtsovo, north of Volchansk, and Ogurtsovo is one of the villages Russia has taken.


Russia hitting a FrankenSAM on a Buk chassis in Kharkov region as part of the current effort.


A Ukrainian Bogdana howitzer getting hit by a Russian loitering munition. Note it seems that the Bogdana has been mostly deployed on the Russian border rather then the main front raising questions.


In Stariy Saltov Russia has taken out a bridge that's important to moving troops and supplies parallel to the border.


Ukrainian sources are claiming 8 Russian UAVs monitoring the situation simultaneously.


Russian sources are reporting Ukrainian JDAM and Hammer bomb strikes against Russian targets.


A Ukrainian construction worker in Kharkov films the smoke from the fighting rising in the distance.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Deepstate UA claims that the reason for Russian successes is poor Ukrainian command in the area who sent up false reports, and misrepresented the situation. They're talking about poor counter-battery fires and mention that Russian forces have entered border areas prior to this, probing for weak spots. They also note that this isn't a push for Kharkov, rather a diversionary attack, but with reserves available to exploit.
Could this means this time around Russia just to want to make sure their border, especially Belgorod save from Ukrainian incursion or artillery/rocket fires ? Unless there's total collapse of Ukrainian Defense, potentially they just want in to position themselves to threaten Kharkiv/Kharkov city, thus to draw Ukrainian reserve to defend it ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Could this means this time around Russia just to want to make sure their border, especially Belgorod save from Ukrainian incursion or artillery/rocket fires ? Unless there's total collapse of Ukrainian Defense, potentially they just want in to position themselves to threaten Kharkiv/Kharkov city, thus to draw Ukrainian reserve to defend it ?
I think the two reasons are accurate. It forces Ukraine to pull reserves from an already thin front line, and it pushes the front away from Belgorod. I'm sure the propaganda value doesn't hurt either.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I don't understand the link it can have with Trump and the US elections. Trump played the big game by blocking the aid bill. But he didn't want to be responsible for the defeat of Ukraine and the dead of people. He was certainly briefed about the urgency to let the congress act.
I want to ask you this, but seems feanor ask you similar thing first; "why are you certain that he didn't want to be responsible for the defeat of Ukraine" ?

He already put his position clearly in media, in front of the most liberal/anti him ones like CNN, and say; if he's in charge he will end the war in 24 hours. This means he saying to the other side of US political spectrum, that he really means to cut Ukraine war ASAP regardless Ukrainian/Zelensky position.

He also stated his position, by doing that he will stop Ukrainian being kill in the ground. So from his position he wants to stop people/Ukrainian dead. Zelenskyy doesn’t believe ‘rumors’ about Trump’s plan to end Russia-Ukraine war Zelensky might not believe Trump will do that, however that's Zelensky being Zelensky. However enough people believe other way around Trump will not give a penny to Ukraine - Hungary PM Orban or even believe Trump has more sinister motive to hate Zelensky administration Why Donald Trump ‘hates Ukraine’.

Will see what happens 'if' he wins elections. However this is also means, so far significant part of Republican camp or base especially that follows him, want to cut Ukrainian lines from US. Looking on the Trump followers media, or online pods, it does seems increasingly have supports.

Add:


According to this, even now Ukrainian Army focus on getting new brigade, new assets for defence on Kyiv area and other regions. This why the talk before from White House on 2025 counter offensive due raise question, who wants the counter offensive? As Ukrainian now focus on defense. You are not planning counter offensive of you are now deep on preparing defense.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
Update on Kharkov front.
Ukrainians watched Russian forces concentrations for a while there. This attack is no surprise. But it's no good news for Ukrainians.
I also think that they tested this part of the front rather than trying to make a breakthrough.
_____________________
Feanor said:
If Ukraine is willing to negotiate an end to the war, the door is open.
I agree. Putin would be happy if Ukraine could be like Belarus with a second Lukashenko as president. A good friend who will always agree with him. But I think it's too late for this.

Feanor said:
In reality if the front line collapses, Russia won't be taking Kiev or even likely storming the Dnepr. In other words, even a maximum defeat followed by negotiations will still likely not have Putin take all of Ukraine.
It's true that Putin is more interrested in the Donbas, Mariupol and Sevastopol. But there is also this idea of buffer zone. Putin would like to turn the part of Ukraine he doesn't take as his private property into a buffer zone necessary to protect Russia [sic].
By maximum defeat or total collapse, I mean a situation where Russian military columns could drive all across Ukraine unhindered. Maybe with Kiev still held by Zelensky's Presidential Guard, but they wouldn't last long if they are encircled. And Lvov still under portection of a Polish brigade.

It's also possible that, content with a partial victory, Putin would not push the fighting further if there are still significant Ukrainian forces around Kiev, Odesa and Zhytomir or along the Dniepr. But I doubt, that in the event the front collpase everywhere from the Left Bank to Karkivov, there will be much Ukrainian forces left to stop them.

Feanor said:
But your own statement here is at odds with your earlier claims. If you want someone as a vassal, you recognize them as a separate entity. I also don't think vassalage is an accurate description here.
Not if the said country doesn't want to be a vasal. There is war because Ukraine refused. And made a coup to overthrow Yanukovitch.
Vasal is a good description of what Belarus is toward Russia. Of course, it's not the Middle Age anymore and terminology today is diferent. The only thing that shows that Belarus is not a vasal in the Middle Age sens, is that they didn't join Russian's troops in Ukraine as a normal vasal would ought to do.

Feanor said:
I don't think China has an interest in seeing this conflict continue. I think for China the most advantageous is a friendly Russia that's not at war with NATO or bogged down in Ukraine. It could provide manufacturing support, technology, and resources, as well as safe trade routes, for China in a potential conflict with the US.
It's hard to know what Xi thinks exactly. Rationaly, peace in Ukraine would be better for China. China can't use the trans-siberian railway to export goods to Europe anymore. Trade with Russia would be easier too. Among other things. But, on the other way, they get good deals with Russia thanks to the war and increased diplomatic weight. There are pro and cons for China.

Feanor said:
That's a risky plan. What if the response is a Russian counter-value strike against dozens/hundreds of European and US cities because they believe your intent is to annihilate Russia as a country?
I agree. And maybe such comment is not useful... Attacking Russian bases in Russia may be too risky, indeed.

What I mean is that a nuclear attack shouldn't be left unanswered. There should be a response with serious material impact. And this, not only with Russia but with anyone who would drop nukes first. (We would be embarrassed if ir was Israel, but that's another debate).
Of course the response should be proportional to the size of the blasts, the damage caused, civilian casualities and so on. But even a moderate attack could already be several times Hiroshima.

Abstaining from using nuclear power in military conflicts has been an universal religious law since WW2. There is a belief that starting even with a small tactical nuke would cause the entire destruction of humanity, or at least the civilisation as we know it. We are lucky that every leader on Earth believes that.
If one leader uses nuclear power, he will be responsible for puting humanity at risk. The whole world should be concerned in case of such event. The punishment for this should be exemplary. If not, others will think that it;s not sacred anymore and will use their nuclear bombs too.

It's extremely worrying that several people in Russia advocated the use of nuclear power in Ukraine. (Forunately Putin is against.) If it was only Khadyrov, I would say ok. But there are several others, more serious officials and intellectuals who don't seem to understand what using nukes means.
(I hope you will not ask me for evudence).

Ananda and Feanor said:
why are you certain that he (Trump) didn't want to be responsible for the defeat of Ukraine" ?
Because the war in Ukraine has taken other proportions since the time Biden and Trump tried to make murky deals with Ukrainian prosecutors and politicians.

Trump is not interrested in international politics. He thinks about Texas, Florida, New York... internal affairs. He had no other beans with Ukraine than hunting for Hunter Biden. He couldn't care less if it was Zelelensky, Yanukovitch or Putin in person who ruled Ukraine.

Trump is also someone who doesn't want to be involved in any war. He wanted to exit the Middle East totaly. Some 6000 US troops still remain there, but he would return all of them home if he could. This shows that he is not the only one in charge.
In this context he didn't want to be involved in the war in Ukraine neither. He would rather let Putin rule Ukraine as it's none of his business. Not because he hates Ukrainiams, but because he doesn't cares about what happens outside America.

It took a while, but Trumps seems to have changed his mind, and started to understand what happens there. Compared to a few months ago when he had no idea of what was going on.

When he said that he would stop the war in 24h, he didn't mean that he would stop all aid overnight, or that he will sign a peace deal with Putin without Zelensky. Seriously: A lot of peolpe in and ouside Russia, and Putin himself, think that a peace deal for Ukraine should be signed between the US President and the Russian President as during the good old times of the Cold War.

Trump says things to convince people to trust him, vote for him, lend him money, do business with him. It's not the meaning of his words that matters, it's the way he pronounce these words, the mimics and his voice tone. He doesn't think for one second that what he says has to materialize. Ending the war in 24h, just like ending the Covid epidemia in 24h, is for american voters who, like him, don't give a damn about f... Ukraine or f.... Covid.

When he thinks about that issue more seriously, he is more embarassed as he would have prefered not to have to deal with that [sic}. I think that he will simply let his Secretary of State and other people more interrested in this particular thing deal with it. Trump say numerous stupid things but he is not a moron. He is able to understand things if briefed correctly. In this case, he understood that witholding military aid further could make him responsible for the defeat of Ukraine wihtout saving any lives. It's not something he wants to be remembered for.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I will try to update today or tomorrow. Things are happening rather quickly Russian advances in Kharkov are going faster then anything we have seen in a long time. It's not dissimilar to the Ocheretino breakthrough in terms of tempo, except even faster. However much of what Russia is taking over is poorly protected border area that was essentially a sort of no-mans land. There also appears to be an effort to push on Volchansk, a town of 17 000 near the border. Despite the offensive being in the Kharkov region, so far the geography doesn't look like it's intended to actually push on Kharkov. It's also only happening along a small section of the border, raising questions about whether Russia will expand the area involved. From a territorial standpoint this is quite bit of land gained, but Russias hold is tenuous and Ukraines main defenses are ahead.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
It's hard to know what Xi thinks exactly.
Not really. Xi is only interested in ensure China as position as the pre-eminent power, which means he will exploit any situation to his/ China's advantage. Getting US distracted (again, post Afghanistan/Iraq) and Russia weakened are obvious benefits. He is not interested in the eventual outcome in that theater, much like their disinterest in the Red Sea (again, knowing the EU and American can step in to protect trade routes, without China lifting a finger).

Re trans-siberian railway (land freight to export goods to Europe is a pipe dream. I see limited commercial value over sea freight w.r.t to demand in Europe (excluding any potential regulations against trade with China). The railway is a just a physical manifestation of OBR.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
But sufficient to draw Ukraine reserves there, to weaken other areas? I await your detailed report.
Sure. Ukraine will definitely have to pull units to stop this attack. How many units remains to be seen. And Russia certainly hasn't committed all of their battle group North to the fight. So far Russia seems to have hit some second-line units pretty hard, and has had some successes. Without reinforcements, there's a real risk they could actually break through Ukrainian defenses. Other sections of the front started moving too, namely Chasov Yar, Netaylovo, Ocheretino salient area again, and Krasnogorovka/Georgievka area. None are major advances, but all put Ukraine in the uncomfortable position of either leaving troops in those areas to hold, and risking losing ground up north, or pulling them, and risking losing ground faster in the Donbas. One thing we can confidently state is that Ukrainian defense in the Donbas are quite robust, and rapid advances by Russia are highly unlikely. But pull the units, and undermanned lines could buckle. On the other hand, the defenses up north appear to be relatively shallow. In other words Russia could theoretically break through them completely at least in theory, forcing Ukrainian units to fight in substantially less advantageous positions as a result. And there are also unconfirmed reports of Russian forces massing across from Sumy too, meaning we might see another incursion there. There are signs of Russia being stretched thin too though, in terms of materiel in particular. Battlegroup North has been spotted with T-62M mod'22s, and we have information from Russian sources that some motor-rifle units are turning into regular rifle infantry, due to losing most of their vehicles. In principle this is a temporary problem, Russia can certainly produce enough BTR-82As, BMP-3Ms, and various MRAPs/armored cars/trucks to turn them back into motor-rifles. In practice however we've had at least one attack take place using Desertcross buggies as assault vehicles. A questionable decision.
 
I will try to update today or tomorrow. Things are happening rather quickly Russian advances in Kharkov are going faster then anything we have seen in a long time. It's not dissimilar to the Ocheretino breakthrough in terms of tempo, except even faster. However much of what Russia is taking over is poorly protected border area that was essentially a sort of no-mans land. There also appears to be an effort to push on Volchansk, a town of 17 000 near the border. Despite the offensive being in the Kharkov region, so far the geography doesn't look like it's intended to actually push on Kharkov. It's also only happening along a small section of the border, raising questions about whether Russia will expand the area involved. From a territorial standpoint this is quite bit of land gained, but Russias hold is tenuous and Ukraines main defenses are ahead.
Very interesting development. Given the estimate of ~50k troops in the northern grouping this still feels very much like diversion/creation of border buffer zone, but it also feels like the Russians have been pursuing targets of opportunity when they find tactical success so who knows how things will play out.

Do we have any reasonable estimates on what kind of reserve force Russia has in the Donbass? I know various analysts / Ukrainian officials have predicted a high intensity Russian offensive operation there in late May/June but for that to be reasonable I'd guess they need multiple corp-size elements there that are currently uncommitted. Timing-wise this certainly feels like a setup for something more significant in the next month. None of this can be very surprising to Ukrainian command so I'm curious if they have a plan to deal with the additional pressure or if their hands are simply tied by personnel constraints.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Very interesting development. Given the estimate of ~50k troops in the northern grouping this still feels very much like diversion/creation of border buffer zone, but it also feels like the Russians have been pursuing targets of opportunity when they find tactical success so who knows how things will play out.
I think this is it exactly. If Ukraine makes a robust response, then Russia minimizes the effort, shifts some of the fighting across the border and uses it as a distraction. If Ukraine lags responding, then Russia can seize some border towns like Volchansk, and make it possible to eventually creep up on Kupyansk from behind. Because it seems pretty unlikely Russia can launch a major offensive across the Oskol. If Ukraine fails to adequately respond then may be Russia could take Kharkov. In theory. Or at least threaten it.

Do we have any reasonable estimates on what kind of reserve force Russia has in the Donbass? I know various analysts / Ukrainian officials have predicted a high intensity Russian offensive operation there in late May/June but for that to be reasonable I'd guess they need multiple corp-size elements there that are currently uncommitted. Timing-wise this certainly feels like a setup for something more significant in the next month. None of this can be very surprising to Ukrainian command so I'm curious if they have a plan to deal with the additional pressure or if their hands are simply tied by personnel constraints.
Good question. Based on what I'm reading and seeing it seems Russia has plenty of troops. There are some shortages of kit starting to come through. Not because total stockpiles are running dry, they're don't appear to be. Rather it's the same bottleneck as before, the rates at which old vehicles can be reactivated and new vehicles produced. So can reserves be committed to a push in Kharkov region or a bigger offensive effort in the Donbas? In principle yes. The biggest issue is that I'm not sure sending in more forces or larger assault elements would help. Where Russia succeeds, it's typically either because they've destroyed Ukrainian defenses and can attack and mostly mop up remaining infantry with the assault teams, or where they do something unexpected like the move on Ocheretino. This makes me question the idea of a major summer offensive. What would the offensive even seek to do? Current rates of advance appear to be somewhat less then sustainable based on the losses of vehicles. So if anything the logical move would be to slow the pace of offensive operations while continuing to increase the volumes of loitering munition strikes, airstrikes, and meanwhile focus on increasing production of armored vehicles to overcome the deficiencies. Ukraine loses manpower from artillery and airstrikes, and equipment from loitering munition strikes. Territory in generally less significant since Russia can't plausibly take enough to force Ukraine to surrender or cause a strategic defeat. But that's my view of it. Russia may try to capitalize on Ukraine's shortage of manpower to cause the front to collapse and may choose to commit more forces not in one spot, but everywhere. In other words lots of smaller attacks across large sections of the front intending to stretch it to a breaking point. This is of course all speculation on my part. I wouldn't be surprised if literally nothing happens, and Russia just keeps doing what they're doing now. I'm also really curious why we're not seeing a new BMP production line being set up anywhere. Rubtsov machinebuilding retooling BMP-1s into 1AMs is good, and making extra-armor kits standard is certainly good for BMP-1s and 2s, but it's not enough. For MBTs they've announced working towards restarting T-80 production in some upgraded variant. Recent info from a visit to OTM suggested they're working on restarting turret production. There's a lot of fog that makes it hard to speak confidently.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kharkov front.

An overview of various maps showing the advances in Kharkov region. Due to fairly rapidly developing events, and the delay in posting, none should be treated as completely authoritative. The current rates of advances probably won't last, unless something goes very very wrong for Ukraine, so we should get a clearer picture once the front stabilizes. Probably the most accuarte one is from suriyakmaps, but even they have a big strip between Ukrainian and Russian lines that isn't colored in a no-man's land. It's not colored in at all meaning, the exact line of control is unclear. First link. What's interesting is that we're not seeing any movements that go deep, instead a steadily expanding wider zone of control along the border. Russian forces are advancing somewhat southward, but this doesn't seem to be the main effort at least yet.


Footage from inside the village of Glubokoe. It's unclear who controls it right now.


Sounds of gunfire on the outskirts of Volchansk.


Russian soldiers in Gatische. Reportedly Ukraine abandoned it without a fight.


Some more footage of the strike against the bridge in Stariy Saltov, and another bridge strike, near Volchanskie Hutory, a village east of Volchansk. These are logical shaping strikes happening at the same time as Russia is advancing.


A Russian AMN-590951 burns after being struck by a Ukrainian FPV drone.


Russia taking out a 2S1 or Krab near Lozovaya. The video claims it's a Krab, Ledok identifies it as a 2S1, though I don't know how. They clearly hit something, but what is a mystery. It does burn well but we don't see secondary detonations, meaning this might well be a decoy. On the other hand it does appear to have a roof cage.


A Ukrainian T-64BV mod'22 and allegedly a T-72 taken out by Russian forces near Liptsi.


Another Ukrainian T-64BV taken out near Podoly.


Some sort of Ukrainian vehicle hit, allegedly a command truck, in Molodovoy, Kharkov region.


Russian Iskander strike allegedly on a Ukrainian Buk SAM. It's hard to make out what the vehicles are.


Russian Lancet strikes against an MLRS of some sort (BM-21?) and allegedly a tank though I can't make it out. Whatever it is, in that first video, we definitely have secondary explosions, meaning something is hit. Note we have the same video in the second link but it's claimed as either a PzH-2000 or an M109.


Ukrainian MLRS of some sort, allegedly Vampir Grad variant, fires a packet then tries to hide, but a Russia UAV is watching the entire time, and as soon as it hides it gest hit with a fast missile of some sort.


Ukrainian 2S1 getting hit near Zlochev, Kharkov region.


Russian loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian towed gun or decoy. On the one hand we havae no secondaries, on the other hand it appears to be in a folded up position, meaning not ready to fire. There might not be any ammo nearby.


Allegedly another destroyed Bogdana howitzer in Kharkov region.


A P-18 radar getting hit, Kharkov region.


Russia struck the meatpacking plant in Kharkov. It was allegedly being used as a Ukrainian logistical hub.


Panicked reports are coming in of Russian troops assaulting Volchansk and the city being/getting surrounded. I don't think this is accurate. The most optimistic pro-Russian reports have Russian troops on the outskirts of Volchansk.


Footage of Ukrainian POWs captured in Kharkov regions continues to come in. It appears they were mostly taken in the first day when Ukrainian positions were caught off guard. We have no info of groups of forces surrendering after that.


A lone Ukrainian POW taken near Volchansk.


The new tactical sign for battlegroup north. The BAZ trailer in the second link is carrying a T-62M.


Russian battlegroup North and their T-62M mod'22s.


The commander of a Ukrainian border guard unit near Kharkov was killed in the fighting. This is confirmation that at least some of the units Russia hit are border guards.


The so-called Russian Volunteer Corps have shown up near Volchansk. Their value is questionable given their abysmal earlier performance.


Ukraine is calling for the population of Volchansk to evacuate. However it's unclear if there is enough time left for that. Russian forces are close, some sources claim already assaulting it, though this seems optimistic.


Ukrainian FPV drone strikes have hit a bus full of agricultural workers in Belgorod region killing 6 and wounding 35 others. Given the nature of FPV munitions, to me this looks like an act of terrorism. I also suspect this is counter-productive. Meaning Ukraine will cause more support in Russia for the war effort in general and the cross-border invasion of Kharkov region in particular.


A Russian gas station was hit by a Ukrainian drone strike in Belgorod region.


In Belgorod allegedly a Ukrainian Tochka missile hit a residential building collapsing a section of it. Reports so far indicate 28 dead, rescue work is ongoing. The intended target may have been a power plant located across the street from this apartment complex.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Oskol front.

Russia has taken the villages of Kislovka and Kotlyarovka. Note these are right next to the village of Tabaevka that was taken earlier this year.


Seversk salient.

There are reports of Russian forces gaining some ground north of Veseloe, but not all sources are confirming the gains.


Ukrainian forces have reportedly recaptured the filtration station north of Belogorovka.


Chasov Yar.

Russian advances towards Chasov Yar. Russia has re-entered the Canal neighborhood from the north-east private sector houses. They're doing this having secured the forest nearby. Russian forces also continue to expand their area of control over the canal crossing in the south. Finally Russian forces have expanded the area of control around Ivanovskoe.


A Ukrainian dump truck was attempting to repair the destroyed canal crossing in Chasov Yar. Russia took it out.


2 Ukrainian T-64BVs destroyed near Chasov Yar.


Russian loitering munition striking some sort of vehicle in the treeline that explodes spectacularly. Possibly a Ukrainian SP Howitzer.


Russian soldiers, clearly in the rear, inspecting a knocked out Ukrainian T-72AV with mine trawl. The person speaking mentions Ukrainian forces tried to evacuate the tank. Based on their lack of body armor and relaxed carriage, this is likely closer to Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Aerial footage of the ruins of Chasov Yar. The town is quickly heading the way of Avdeevka and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Avdeevka-Netaylovo area.

West of Avdeevka Russian forces have entered Umanskoe from the east, north of the waterway. It's the third ring of villages around Avdeevka. South of the waterway Russian forces have advanced towards the Yasnobrodovka-Netaylovo road, effectively cutting it in one spot. They've also approached Novopokrovskoe from the east, though aren't assaulting it yet. Russian forces are slowly taking the low-lands south of Pervomayskoe. It was reported that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the area but Russian forces hadn't entered due to mines. Some sources are also reporting some expansion to Russia's area of control north and north-east of Ocheretino, but the gains reported are relatively minor. For the time being this offensive is spent. Inside Netaylovo Russian forces are continuing a slow advance.


Around Ocheretino Russia has begun slowly expanding their area of control westward and northward. The village of Arkhangel'skoe has fallen.


A Ukrainian T-72AV and T-80BV taken out west of Tonen'koe.


Ukrainian M113 trying to pick up infantry near Arkhangel'skoe gets hit by an RPG, and then Russian soldiers finish it off with hand grenades, likely killing the Ukrainian infantry inside.


Ukrainian infantry withdrawing from Arkhangel'skoe on foot under artillery fire.


A Ukrainian tank (T-72?) gets hit by a Sparta btln FPV drone near Yasnobrodovka. The tank appears to already be knocked out, and from this strike it burns.


An M1 Abrams knocked out near Avdeevka.


Ukrainian BRDM-2 taken out near Netaylovo.


2 Bradleys knocked out and a BMP-2 destroyed in the Avdeevka area, context unclear.


Allegedly an M1 Abrams getting hit by repeated FPV strikes in the Avdeevka area.


Another M1 getting hit, this one at night.


Allegedly a Ukrainian drone team dugout getting hit. It's clearly a Ukrainian position of some sort.


Russia hits either a decoy or an S-300 TEL, north-weset of Avdeevka.


A Ukrainian Oncilla/Dozor-B armored car hit near Avdeevka. While originally a Ukrainian design from KhBTM, it's currently in production in Poland.


A vew on the ruins of Avdeevka. The town is effectively destroyed. I suspect the remaining residents would fit into a single high-rise building.


Russian flag raising in Arkhangel'skoe. The village is currently under Russian control.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Mar'inka area.

Russian forces are repotedly advancing inside Krasnogorovka along very logical lines closing the gap between the eastern grouping and southern one. Russian forces also gained ground north of the factory. Russian forces have also re-entered central Georgievka. They briefly held these positions previoulsy but were pushed out. Since then Russian forces have gained more ground along the high-ground south of Georgievka, so they may feel their flanks are better secured.


Two Leo-2s (A4 I think) getting hit somewhere in the Kurakhovo area. We've seen Leo-2A4s active here before, most notably 3 with K-1 on them were lost in a failed counter-attack on Pobeda along with an M113. The ones here appear to have the same K-1 layouts. Russian sources are claiming it was a Ukrainian attack with 3 Leo-2s and 2 M113s so it could be the same unit. I also can't help but wonder if the counter-attack is in response to the advance inside Georgievka above.


Flag raising on the factory in the center of Krasnogorovka. While the town isn't taken, with the factory fallen, it's just a matter of time.


Some aerial footage of the fighting in Krasnogorovka. You can see the one neighborhood of larger apartment buildings, and the rest of the town as a giant private sector.


Novomihailovka area.

Russian forces have entered the first few buildings of Paraskovievka and gained some ground north and south of there.


Russian forces show off a captured FV105 Sultan near Novomihailovka.


Zaporozhye front.

Russian advances around Urozhaynoe and Staromayorskoe are continuing. This time they have gained some hills west of Staromayorskoe , and have entered it from the west side.


Russia is also continuing to advance in the Rabotino salient, though slowly.


Russia striking targets in Urozhaynoe.


An interesting video from inside Urozhaynoe. A Russian BTR-82A rides down the street, and takes either an ineffective hit or a near miss from a Ukrainian RPG. It then picks up pace, and drives through 3 more RPG shots all of which miss. One thing to say for wheeled vehicles is that they can often move very quickly, almost like a car, despite being armored. What's interesting is that the vehicle is heading southward, confirming the nature of the advance into the village being from the west side into the center, with Ukrainian forces still being in the southern part.


A fascinating video from inside the Rabotino salient. A couple of Russian infantry on a dirt-bike navigate the moonscape, dodging artillery fire, only to arrive at what is allegedly a Ukrainian dugout where they throw a grenade and enter.


A Ukrainian FV103 Spartan destroyed in the Rabotino salient.


Russia hit what appears to be a Patriot decoy position near Gulyaypole.


Russia also took out the second FrankenSAM, this one in Zaporozhye. We can clearly see the SAM and the loader truck.


Ukrainian POWs taken near Staromayorskoe.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Crimea.

Ukraine hit Crimea with unmanned boats again using a couple of new techniques. They used some boats as breachers to get through Russian harbor defenses, and outfitted another one with R-73 short range AA missiles. Since they can lock on to a heat signature they are a threat, and Russian helicopters and jets have been a significant part of the Russian defense effort. The harbor they penetrated is a small base on the west side of Crimea, and they hit a small boat.


Strikes.

Russia hit two Mi-24s and possibly damaged an Mi-8 in Dnepropetrovsk region. The Mi-24s burn, so it's clear they're out, but the Mi-8 is not visibly damaged. On the other hand it's a claimed Iskander strike, in other words a fairly large warhead. Some sources claim another two Mi-24s damaged, but I can't really make them out.


Russia hit the police station in Toretsk. At this point the line between Ukrainian Troops of Interior and regular army is relatively thin. However it would be strange if that's what it was being used as. I suspect it was some sort of Ukrainian staging area or supply point.


Russia hit Dimitrov/Mirnograd, striking a Ukrainian staging area. Some reports claim up to 60 KIA.


Russia hit the village of Velikodolinskoe, near Odessa. Targets unclear.


Russia hit the thermal power plant in Slavyansk.


Russian Shahed strikes against energy infrastructure in Sumy region. Blackouts are reported.


Some footage of battle damage to the machinehall of the Dneproges.


Battle damage after a Russian strike reveals two destroyed MBTs, one possibly a T-80BV. Location unclear. Many of Russian strikes against hangars and industrial buildings are done for this purpose, but we often don't have BDA.


Russia struck Krasniy Liman. Target unclear, but reportedly it's near the rail station.


After recent Russian strikes, a Kh-101 with a double warhead was found, and a brand new Kh-69, which may or may not have been launched by an Su-57.


Ukraine hit a fuel storage facility in Roven'ki, Lugansk region, using ATACMS cluster munition variant.


A Ukrainian UAV hit an oil refinery in Bashkiriya, Volgograd, and Kaluga. They also hit a fuel storage facility in Krasnodar region.


Ukraine hit a restaurant called Paradise in Donetsk. No good information on casualties yet, preliminaries say 1 dead, 1 wounded.


Since Russia began their cross-border invasion, Ukraine has launched 4 series of strikes against Belgorod. Targets appear to include residential areas and a shopping center. In all likelihood we are once again witnessing indiscriminate lobbing of Grad or Uragan rockets into the city. One strike resulted in 8 wounded civilians. Numbers on the rest are unclear.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Russian T-90M eats two FPV drones. It considers catching fire after the first one but decides against it. After that you can see the turret rapidly rotating and the RCWS HMG poiting at the sky presumably to try to shoot down any further inbounds. The tank keeps moving, so presumably it's alive.


A failed Russian counter-battery strike on a PzH-2000 near Toretsk. This section of the front line is virtually completely static.


A Russian improvised MRLS on a UAZ van chassis.


A Ukrainian ASRAMM AIM-132 hit by a Russian loitering munition.


A Ukrainian tank, allegedly a Leo-1A5, getting hit first a Krasnopol', then by a loitering munition. The practice of double and triple-tappping targets has become common.


A Ukrainian Caesar howitzer getting hit. While it's a plausible image, it's hard to be sure it's not a decoy, and not a look-alike. Some Bogdana variants look similar enough in a low quality video.


A knocked out Bergenpanzer 3 somewhere. I suspect this is the Rabotino salient.


Russia has apparently shifted to using Izd. 305 missiles against vehicles. I think this is a wise move. Depleting Ukrainian artillery and vehicle supplies is very important to any Russian offensive successes. Here they hit what appears to be a T-72 and a 2S3 with an anti-drone cage that's obviously not very effective against a large missile. There appear to be crew scattering after the hit, but the vehicle doesn't catch fire and there are no secondaries. It's possible it's out of ammo, or just got lucky.


2 African soldiers in Russian service. One has a patch of his countries' flag on in addition to the Russian one, but I have to admit, I don't know which country it is.


A Russian IMR-2 with ERA side-screens, clearly improvised, and a roof cage.


A look at the driver's camera for one of Russia's turtle-tanks.


Vault 8, a Russian mobilized soldier, mentioned in his telegram that there is a tendency for motor-rifles units to lose vehicles faster then they get replaced, turning some of them into regular infantry.


Another Russian turtle-tank, with an EW station on top.


2 Russian BMP-2s with extra-armor kit. These are steadily becoming more common with some sources indicating they've become standard for overhauled BMP-2s from a repair plant. What's ironic is that BMP-2s are also being overhauled and upgraded at Kurganmash, which puts out the BMP-2M, but generally without the extra armor kits.


A Russian MT-LB with an MT-12 on top, as an improvised SP artillery piece. Where once these vehicles looked rather silly, they're quite relevant given what kind of antiques both sides will resort to.


A T-80BVM with an unindentified EW station on it.


A look at dispersion of Russian logistics. We have an UAZ pickup converted to a maintenance truck, and a motor-cycle with the sidecar just being a fuel drum. The BMP-3 is a BMP-3 with the extra armor already damaged.


Russian positions with netting overhead to protect from drone strikes.


Russian volunteer organizations have taken a BMP-3 MEDEVAC prototype from a museum, as the program never went ahead. They have repaired it, and it's heading to the front.


A T-80BVM with a thermal camera for the driver and a T-80BV with extra front and rear cameras.


A Russian Tor-M2 with anti-UAV pickets using Vepr-12 semi-automatic shotguns.


Russian repair unit fixing a knocked out and captured Ukrainian T-64BV.


Ukrainian M-55S remain active.


Ukrainian MiG-29 carrying JDAM-ER.


Ukrainian sources are showing off a captured Russian portable EW station.


Ukraine continues to operate aircraft from roadways and improvised air strips, a wise choice given the series Russian strikes against Ukrainian aircraft over the past ~9 months.


A Ukrainian M120 Rak self-propelled 120mm mortar.


A rare Ukrainian M-80A with a roof cage.


Ukrainian forces towing an OTO Melara M56 105mm light howitzer, with a pickup truck.


A Ukrainian border guards M113 with a small MLRS on top. In Russia and Ukraine there are border guard troops that are military in nature though not under their respective MoDs.


A Ukrainian T-64BV with a camera for the driver's spot.


A PT-91 with cages, from Ukraine's 117th Mech Bde.


A Ukrainian M777 repair facility. As time goes on there will be more and more that Ukraine can do themselves both for maintenance and repairs.


An interesting look at a Ukrainian anti-UAV detachments.


Ukraine's 1st SOF Bde is being converted into a territorial defense bde. Note the unit has its own tanks and artillery, so those will likely go elsewhere. Prior to this one of the bdes batallions was disbanded.


A report on Leo-1 deliveries to Ukraine suggests that Ukraine has already received as many as 90 of these tanks.


An interesting example of the limitations of strikes on bridges. Mere days after Russia hit this bridge twice, and even caught a locomotive on top of the bridge, destroying it, Ukraine has simply rebuilt it not as a bridge but as a berm with a rail lineon it. Obviously this impedes automobile traffic, but that's probably a minor concern. Rebuilding bridges over water is harder, but also doable.


Russia has rebuilt a bridge in Novoazovsk. This area is far from the front line and reconstruction efforts of civilian infrastructure can generally proceed unimpeded.


A giant St. George ribbon has been put out at the famous Saur Mogila monument. The site has become symbolic in dual ways, the same way that for LDNR residents the orange-black ribbon has a dual symbolism, Great Patriotic War and the events of '14.


Russia is resuming production of agricultural machinery in Melitopol'. Economic success is key to keeping the locals quiet and content.


Poland has returned two Ukrainian men who fled into Poland illegally to avoid the draft.

 

KipPotapych

Active Member
Quite an update, Feanor. Thanks.

Battle damage after a Ukrainian strike reveals two destroyed MBTs, one possibly a T-80BV. Location unclear. Many of Russian strikes against hangars and industrial buildings are done for this purpose, but we often don't have BDA.

Probably unintentional, but the strike was Russian, unless I am missing something.

2 African soldiers in Russian service. One has a patch of his countries' flag on in addition to the Russian one, but I have to admit, I don't know which country it is.

The colour scheme suggests Libya. Could also be one of those improvised “we are our own country” flags.

An interesting video from inside Urozhaynoe. A Russian BTR-82A rides down the street, and takes either an ineffective hit or a near miss from a Ukrainian RPG. It then picks up pace, and drives through 3 more RPG shots all of which miss. One thing to say for wheeled vehicles is that they can often move very quickly, almost like a car, despite being armored. What's interesting is that the vehicle is heading southward, confirming the nature of the advance into the village being from the west side into the center, with Ukrainian forces still being in the southern part.

Lucky.

A fascinating video from inside the Rabotino salient. A couple of Russian infantry on a dirt-bike navigate the moonscape, dodging artillery fire, only to arrive at what is allegedly a Ukrainian dugout where they throw a grenade and enter.

This is some crazy stuff. I’ve seen apparently a very shortened version of this and didn’t even realize where they arrived until now. Wonder how it worked out for those guys.

Ukrainian M113 trying to pick up infantry near Arkhangel'skoe gets hit by an RPG, and then Russian soldiers finish it off with hand grenades, likely killing the Ukrainian infantry inside.

Very unfortunate. They basically locked themselves in. Isn’t it the point where one would throw a white flag out?

Quite a few videos and reports that the M113s can absorb quite bit of fire and remain mobile.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Reuters said:
On the other side of the border in Belgorod region a whole section of a Russian apartment block collapsed, killing several people, after it was struck by a Soviet-era missile launched by Ukraine and shot down by Russia, Russian officials said on Sunday.

Kyiv made no comment, but its forces have stepped up attacks recently on Belgorod as part of what it sees as a drive to free all its territory from Russian control.

In response to Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod, President Vladimir Putin suggested in March that Moscow could try to establish a buffer zone inside Ukrainian territory.
link
It looks like a battle between Kadkiv and Belgorod. The goal of the Russians is to push Ukrainian rocket launchers further away to prevent the bomboing of Belgorod. And testing Ukrainian defence lines at the same time.
 
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