The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[swerve]

I note that the UK's been shipping old ASRAAMs (being replaced in the UK by new ones) mounted on Supacats (relatively cheap vehicles) to Ukraine. Gross overkill for shooting down ultra-cheap drones, but given that they're almost time-expired, it's hard to say they're a waste of money against almost any target.

There should be more of that. Any old MANPADS or other old AA weapons which don't need a lot of expensive backup which are sitting in storage should be shipped to Ukraine ASAP.

The old Gepards seem to be doing OK against UAVs. If there are any more in store, or equivalent kit, again - ship 'em!

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Ukraine receives the first Skynex systems. Looks like a very useful system, however, the number of systems being transferred is too low to have any meaningful impact. Again, the West is providing high quality hardware but too little and too late.

Analysis: Skynex – The New Air Defense System Protecting Ukrainian Skies, Courtesy of Germany (kyivpost.com)

2 systems per year, $100 million each.
Truly one of the MICs of all times.

 

[seaspear]

This article suggests anti missile capability ,if the Skynex provided includes 4 unmanned guns it has the potential to be useful

 

[Fredled]

I note that the UK's been shipping old ASRAAMs (being replaced in the UK by new ones) mounted on Supacats (relatively cheap vehicles) to Ukraine. Gross overkill for shooting down ultra-cheap drones, but given that they're almost time-expired, it's hard to say they're a waste of money against almost any target.

It doesn't mean you can waste them on small drones. The quantity of AD missiles ready to be fired at any given time is nonetheless limited, no matter how old they are. When the launchers are empty, they are empty!
But of course, the West is sending old stocks that were poised to be disposed and replaced. It happens that it's cheaper to send them to Ukraine than to dismantle and disposed them with respect to environmental and safety norms.
Exception with Germany who was happy to test its new IRIS-T system, not even in use yet by the Bundeswehr. And probably some others who use Ukraine as a test field for new weapons. Data collected in Ukraine are extremely valuable.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

This article suggests anti missile capability ,if the Skynex provided includes 4 unmanned guns it has the potential to be useful

According to this caption in an image from the article:

It is likely composed of 4 guns, a radar, and a C2 - together comprising a system.
$200m is no small change. For that money I'd expect much more capability. Together they can cover 2 small areas only a few square kilometers each.
That money can buy 4 full Iron Dome batteries for example.
While VSHORAD systems are very sophisticated, they too need to maintain some cost proportionality vs other tiers of an AD network.

 

[Armchair]

It doesn't mean you can waste them on small drones. The quantity of AD missiles ready to be fired at any given time is nonetheless limited, no matter how old they are. When the launchers are empty, they are empty!

It is hard to judge how the historical production cost of effectors affects decisions on the ground by either side.
If it does then assuming there are no alternative defences then whether missiles are “wasted” depends on the value of the target protected not just the nominal value of the missile.
If the target to be protected is the launcher itself (again with no other defences) it does not matter if launching empties a launcher that would be destroyed by the drone.
On the other hand, if launching at small drones makes the launcher and its systems more vulnerable to more sophisticated attacks then that is a different tradeoff.

 

[T.C.P]

According to this caption in an image from the article:

It is likely composed of 4 guns, a radar, and a C2 - together comprising a system.
$200m is no small change. For that money I'd expect much more capability. Together they can cover 2 small areas only a few square kilometers each.
That money can buy 4 full Iron Dome batteries for example.
While VSHORAD systems are very sophisticated, they too need to maintain some cost proportionality vs other tiers of an AD network.

Ironically Pantsirs would be a great solutions to Gerans. The SKynex seems too expensive and too overly engineered for threats like Shaheds/Gerans.

SkyGuards are cheaper and already in production, why not go for more of those?

 

[Feanor]

According to this caption in an image from the article:

It is likely composed of 4 guns, a radar, and a C2 - together comprising a system.
$200m is no small change. For that money I'd expect much more capability. Together they can cover 2 small areas only a few square kilometers each.
That money can buy 4 full Iron Dome batteries for example.
While VSHORAD systems are very sophisticated, they too need to maintain some cost proportionality vs other tiers of an AD network.

There might be an economics of scale issue. If Germany scaled production to dozens of vehicles per year, I'm sure the unit cost would go down.

It doesn't mean you can waste them on small drones. The quantity of AD missiles ready to be fired at any given time is nonetheless limited, no matter how old they are. When the launchers are empty, they are empty!
But of course, the West is sending old stocks that were poised to be disposed and replaced. It happens that it's cheaper to send them to Ukraine than to dismantle and disposed them with respect to environmental and safety norms.
Exception with Germany who was happy to test its new IRIS-T system, not even in use yet by the Bundeswehr. And probably some others who use Ukraine as a test field for new weapons. Data collected in Ukraine are extremely valuable.

Yes and no. It's another supply of missiles, that can potentially down fast Shaheds while not costing as much as Patriots or IRIS-Ts.

 

[seaspear]

It does though suggest the capability of shooting down cruise missiles more than just Shaheds , which may be useful against such in terminal phase of flight

 

[Fredled]

Oerlinkon/Skynex's advantage is to fire at several targets in a very short time, with sub-munition shells exploding at a distance programmed by software as the gun points to the target. Now let's compare with so called much cheaper rocket systems. An Oerlikon gun can easily destroy 10 drones approaching at the same time, and still have enough ammos to deal with several waves of drone attacks immediately after that, without supervision. A rocket launcher can fire only 4 rockets at a time, then has to be reloaded. It means that you need several launchers. This increase logistic hurdles, the number of men mobilised for this task, and the system vulnerability. All these rockets can be hit and explode.

I don't think it cost $200M per unit. Once the development cost is behind, it becomes affordable.

 

[Vivendi]

Great news from the UK: a new, large, support package was announced by the UK PM Mr. Sunak during a surprise visit in Kyev. £2.5 Bn in military aid during 2024-2025 that includes long-range missiles, air defense, artillery ammo, and maritime security support. About £200m will also be spent to procure and produce thousands of drones. Russia attacks 'arrogant British' after Sunak visits Ukraine to announce new aid | UK News | Sky News

This is excellent news. Several European countries have now committed to substantial support for 2024 and beyond. Let's hope they can speed up deliveries!

 

[KipPotapych]

Pretty good thread on twitter about the Russian railroad construction efforts behind the frontline. Looks like they are pretty busy. Unrolled here for those who do not have Twitter:

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: Geospatial Analysis: Railroad Construction on Occupied Territories. Updated Thread: 1/ Frontelligence Insight examined satellite imagery of railroad constructions in occupied territories, specifical...…

threadreaderapp.com

Maybe Feanor has some good info to add here?

 

[Fredled]

Pretty good thread on twitter about the Russian railroad construction efforts behind the frontline. Looks like they are pretty busy. Unrolled here for those who do not have Twitter:

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: Geospatial Analysis: Railroad Construction on Occupied Territories. Updated Thread: 1/ Frontelligence Insight examined satellite imagery of railroad constructions in occupied territories, specifical...…

threadreaderapp.com

Maybe Feanor has some good info to add here?

A few days ago the Ukrainians had destroyed a bridge in construction on this line, with some cruise missiles.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Not a whole lot has happened. There have been minor Russian advances in multiple areas, including creeping gains around Avdeevka, a slight move forward towards Terny, some gains in the woods west of Kremennaya, a decent gain of ground (but no population centers) in the Seversk salient, continued creeping envelopment of Novomihailovka, a move westward out of Mar'inka, and ground regained in the Rabotino salient. Noteworthy is that Ukraine has managed to thwart Russia's advances on Stepovoe with reinforcements and counter-attacks, and have either halted Russian advances in Sin'kovka, or even pushed them out of the outskirt they were holding.

Oskol Front.

Russian forces have failed in all attemps to seize Sinkovka and now appear to have been pushed back from the village. Rumors swirl about West MD incompetence being to blame.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 685: Situation on northeastern front: Ukrainian Army recaptured the part of Syn'kivka under gray area after Russian Army was forced to retreat from the northern outskirts. Map: [...

t.me

Russia made considerable gains at Terny prompting the deployment of Ukrainian reinforcements. However, either Russia's advance at Terny wasn't as significant as initially reported or Ukraine counter-attacked. Either way, it appears some ground initially marked as a Russian advance is in Ukrainian hands.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/01/05/20240105122127-e0d1f647.jpg?utm_source=t.me&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=t.me&utm_referrer=t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 687: Situation north of Donetsk: Recent video footage which shows shelling of Ukrainian positions ( 49°05'47.9"N 38°02'14.3"E ) allows to correct the frontline east of Terny, which shows some advances made by Russian Army in the previous days never took place. However...

t.me

An interesting piece of analysis that shows Russia's UPMK module is not as accurate as desired. Several of them missed a bridge, and a KH-38ML had to be used to finish the job.

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A Leo-2A5 knocked out in the woods of Kremennaya.

Colonelcassad

Вышедший из строя в лесах под Кременной шведский танк STRV 122A (модификация немецкого Leopard 2A5), стоящий на вооружении украинских формирований. @heads_hunters

t.me

3 Leo-2s getting hit by Russian loitering munitions on the Oskol front.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Бойцы ЗВО жгут Леопарды на фронте у Купянска ▪️Операторы Западной группировки войск поразили FPV-дронами сразу 3 танка Leopard-2 немецкого производства в Харьковской облати. ▪️Активные бои на Купянском направлении продолжаются t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Бойцы ЗВО разгромили взвод немецких танков «Леопардов» на сватовском направлении, пытавшихся атаковать российские позиции В районе н.п. Терны ВСУ готовились к атакам на позиции наших войск, но группировка войск «Запад» уничтожила врага высокоточными боеприпасами. /Минобороны/ТК Звезда/...

t.me

More footage of Ukrainian Archers near Kremennaya.

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Seversk Salient.

This area hasn't been active in a long time. Russian forces have made considerable gains in the south-eastern section of it, posing a threat to the village of Veseloe. Presumably the intent is to come at the village from the north-east, forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw. Russian forces also gained some ground around Spornoe, but after initial moves that looked like they were aiming to seize the village, they withdrew from it's southern outskirts. As far as I can tell Russian forces hold ruined storage faclities in the south of Spornoe, but the two residential areas are both under Ukrainian control.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/01/13/20240113234245-ccb10547.jpg

Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian offensive efforts here are mostly halted. Russia has gained some ground on the heights west of Klescheevka, but they remain contested. Russian forces have also made minor gains around Kurdyumovka. Around Bogdanovka Russian forces are enveloping the village from the west, due to the village itself being in a low area.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/01/13/20240113234248-797f000b.jpg

Russia appears to have struck a HIMARS near Konstantinovka, though it's hard to be sure the vehicle was destroyed.

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Охота на HIMARS: Кассетным ударом уничтожена американская ракетная система 31.12.2023 г. артиллерией группировки войск "Юг" была поставлена точка в операции по уничтожению расчёта РСЗО Himars, действующего на Артёмовском направлении. ▪️Система находилось в 8 километрах южнее н.п...

t.me

Avdeevka.

Russian forces in this area are halted south and north-west of the town and even lost a couple of forward positions on each flank. They're still slowly pushing northward towards the Zarya neighborhood of cottages, and presumably afterwards towards Ocheretino. They're also gaining ground street by street in the north-eastern suburb of Avdeevka. Last but not least Russian forces have resumed advances in Pervomayskoe, after initially being pushed back there by a Ukrainian counter-attack. As it stands Russian forces hold the northern side of the ponds there, making it easier to push westward through the village.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/01/13/20240113234250-9a7cffbb.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 688: Situation north of Avdivka: Small Russian Army advance was made south of Water Treatment Facilities thus entering in Ivushka dachas. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.16903854223768%2C37.7206551350713&z=14 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 686: Situation northwest of Donetsk: Russian Army made new advances in Pervomaiske. Ukrainian Army positions in the southern part of the village are under enormous pressure and further retreats to the north and west continue as Russian troops advance dacha by dacha...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 685: Situation on Avdivka front: - From the northern axis Ukrainian Army recaptured some of the lost positions south of Novokalynove. - From the southern axis, recent geolocations confirms Ukrainian Army eventually recaptured the lost positions southwest of Sjeverne in...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 682: Situation northwest of Donetsk city: As a result of the partial withdrawal of Ukrainian Army during the last days Russian Army made some advances south of Pervomaiske. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 682: Situation north of Avdivka: Russian Army continue advancing slowly south of Vesele towards Avdiivskyi Quarry. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.18182219142551%2C37.728065470672725&z=13 ]

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Армия России штурмует Первомайское, продвинувшись на 500 м на фланге Авдеевки ▪️"В районе Первомайского очень интенсивные бои, у русских успехи тактического характера", - признают связанные с ВСУ аналитические ресурсы. ▪️На Авдеевском направлении "в восточной части Первомайского российские...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 671: Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army continue advancing at the western outskirts of Marinka reaching the first houses of Heorhiivka, where Ukrainian Army retreated towards the first defensive positions within the town. Map: [...

t.me

A Bradley gets hit by a Lancet near Stepovoe. Fighting continues around this village, and casualties are mounting though Russia is certainly losing more.

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A Russian T-80BVM mod'23 with the new Krysha roof cage, and Saniya EW station operating near Avdeevka. It's one of several EW stations being installed on Russian vehicles.

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Минобороны показало кадры оснащенного комплексом борьбы с FPV-дронами танка Т-80БВМ, ведущего бой под Авдеевкой

Российские танки в зоне СВО начали оборудовать системой подавления FPV-дронов "Сания", следует из кадров, размещенных военным ведомством на своем официальном сайте. Танки Т-80БВМ 9-й мотострелковой бригады 1 Армейского корпуса, воюющие в районе Первомайского под Авдеевкой, оснастили

topwar.ru

Mar'inka.

Russian forces are pushing west and north-west out of Mar'inka and have entered Georgievka, the next village over. There is a dominating height north of the village, and Russian forces are clearly planning to assault it.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 682: Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army increased the buffer zone around Marinka by advancing norwest of the town. It's expected that the aim of Russian forces is the capture of the hill (White square) in order to fully secure Marinka from any Ukrainian Army...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 687: Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army made small advances nortwest of Marinka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.95829985859713%2C37.476363944716674&z=14 ]

t.me

Novomihailovka.

Russian forces continue a slow envelopment from the south, despite some Ukrainian counter-attacks. Ukrainian forces have also pulled back somewhat in the north-east, likely due to Russian control of dominating heights. In the north Ukrainian strong points at Pobeda hold, and bar further advances.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/01/12/20240112211513-c55ffd17.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 685: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Ukrainian Army retreated from some positions northeast of Novomykhailivka as Russian Army intensified the attacks in this axis. Following the failure of Russian troops to capture the town from the south they are now trying to...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/01/10/20240110215208-50796c9b.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 684: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army continue increasing the salient towards Novomykhailivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.83496604223491%2C37.454604262268745&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 682: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Ukrainian Army recaptured the cemetery and the cotton buildings south of Novomykhailivka following the failure of Russian Army to enter in the town. Map: [...

t.me

Ukrainian T-64BV near Novomihailovka gets hit, after which the commander bails out. The tank then hits a landmine.

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Russian FAB strikes at Novomihailovka.

Colonelcassad

Удары ФАБами по позициям ВСУ в Новомихайловке @voin_dv

t.me

Colonelcassad

Удары ФАБ в исполнении авиаторов 11 Армии в районе Новомихайловки @voin_dv

t.me

A massive explosion of a Russian MT-LB based VBIED. It's unclear if the intent was to strike Ukrainian positions or make a hole in a minefield.

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[Feanor]

Zaporozhye.

Russian forces are creeping forward in both the old Vremyevskiy bulge, and the Rabotino salient. Nonetheless all the gains are minimal. It's not clear that any major offensive effort is taking place. Rather this seems to be the consequences of elite Ukrainain units being sent elsewhere.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 687: Situation on Zaporizhia front: Russian Army made small advance west of Verbove. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.43948511880527%2C35.93627158421561&z=13 ]

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/01/13/20240113001558-dc617906.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 685: Situation on Zaporizhia front: Russian Army captured new Ukrainian Army position south of Robotyne. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.434586626329576%2C35.83139451544272&z=14 ]

t.me

Russian forces advancing near Rabotino are capturing areas where Ukrainian vehicles were knocked out. Russia has now captured some Leo-2A4s, though it remains to be seen whether Russia can haul them away, since this is still very close to the front.

За"контактированный" Леопард 2

И еще немного резиния на башню

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

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Colonelcassad

Выведенные из строя 2 танка Leopard 2A4 в районе Работино

t.me

Dambiev

Красивое. Два уничтоженных в зоне проведения СВО украинских танка Leopard 2A4 немецкого производства с установленными комплектами дополнительной защиты "Контакт-1".

t.me

Ukrainian UAVs made out of spare materials have been spotted in Zaporozhye, suggesting a shortage of standard produced UAVs.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ стали использовать на запорожском направлении кустарные БПЛА, которые собраны из подручных материалов и нередко падают без использования средств поражения. БПЛА серийной и заводской сборок встречаются все реже.

t.me

Dnepr Front.

Russian forces have gained some ground in Krynki. Ukraine is still funnelling troops into this foothold, though their casualties are horrendous and it's unclear what possible purpose this effort could serve at this point.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 689: Situation on Kherson front: During the last three days battles continued in Krynky which is completely destroyed after intense artillery activity. Russian Army continue recovering the salient created by Ukrainian Army around the town. The battle is being costly by...

t.me

Footage of the apocalyptic landscape at Krynki.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Видео с последствиями баталий в Крынках Село выглядит так, как будто на него сбросили атомную бомбу. В кадре нет ни одного целого объекта. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Allegedly a Ukrainian Su-25 downed in Kherson region. Note the type is likely the least valuable combat jet Ukraine operates.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️При попытке атаковать наши позиции армией России сбит штурмовик Су-25 на Херсонском фронте Боевая машина уничтожена из ПЗРК на правобережье Херсонской области в районе Берислава. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Earlier a video identified a destroyed Ukrainian vehicle in Kherson as a Stryker. A closer look reveals it to be a Canadian Super Bison. It was taken out by a loitering munition.

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Colonelcassad

Уничтоженный канадский бронетранспортер ACSV TCV Super Bison . Кадры со стороны противника.

t.me

Ukrainian Strela-10 on the right shore of the Dnepr getting hit. Note the red missile containers, these are the re-exported Jordanian missiles. Also we have a Buk, M109, and a 2S1 getting hit in the same area. Russian efforts to strike Ukrainian targets supporting the cross-river operations continue.

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Russia hit two IRIS-T TELs in Kherson region but it's not clear if they are real or decoys.

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Colonelcassad

Работа "Ланцетов" по ЗРК Iris-T на правобережье Днепра.

t.me

A Russian SRBM strike misses a Ukrainian IRIS-T by ~30m in Kherson region. Note it's possible the shrapnel still damaged something, but it's quite a miss.

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Уничтожение РЛС ЗРК Iris-T

Уничтожение РЛС немецкого ЗРК Iris-T стоимостью 140 000 000 евро. Прилетел Искандер.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Belgorod.

It appears Ukraine has tried to hit Belgorod with more MLRS strikes, but they were intercepted. It is claimed based on fragments recovered that Czech Vampir Grad variants are being used along with Ol'kha and Tochka munitions.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Впечатляющие кадры отражения удара по Белгороду Позиции ПВО не видно, так что можно спокойно публиковать и гордиться нашими парнями из ПВО t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг пытается нанести массированный удар по Белгороду, в небе десятки взрывов, ревёт тревога Губернатор Гладков: В Белгороде и Белгородском районе запущена сирена ракетной опасности. Если вы находитесь дома – не подходите к окнам. Укройтесь в помещениях без окон со сплошными стенами (коридор...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России отразила удар «Вампира» по Белгороду ▪️Около 21.30 мск отражен удар РСЗО RM-70 «Вампир», которыми враг уже атаковал город на днях, –сообщает Минобороны. ▪️Силами ПВО сбиты 10 реактивных снарядов. ▪️3 человека пострадали при украинском обстреле Белгорода вечером в понедельник...

t.me

Colonelcassad

t.me

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Грохот в небе Белгорода: враг пытался нанести удар Сообщается о ракетной опасности. При этом одновременно был нанесен удар по врагу. Как раз в Харькове прогремели взрывы. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️«В Белгороде запущена сирена ракетной опасности. Все жители должны спуститься в укрытие», – губернатор Есть сбитые цели, на земле обломки ракет. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг снова пытается атаковать Белгород, гремят взрывы, ревут сирены ракетной опасности Губернатор Гладков: "В Белгороде запущена сирена ракетной опасности. Если вы находитесь дома – не подходите к окнам. Укройтесь в помещениях без окон со сплошными стенами (коридор, ванная, туалет, кладовая)...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️9 ракет «Ольха» сбиты над Белгородской областью ▪️«4 ракеты РСЗО «Ольха» перехвачены средствами ПВО над Белгородской областью около 12.00 и 5 ракет около 13:00», - Минобороны. ▪️В 13:50 в Белгороде отменен сигнал ракетной опасности, сообщает губернатор. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Удар отражён: сбиты 9 вражеских целей на подлете к Белгороду ▪️Оперативные службы уточняют информацию о последствиях на земле в Белгороде и районе. По предварительным данным, пострадавших нет. ▪️В городе есть повреждения в частном секторе - в 3 домах выбиты окна. Также повреждены газовая...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Страшные кадры из Белгорода, мощные взрывы над городом, армия России отражает удар врага Украина 4-й раз за день пытается атаковать город. Оставайтесь в укрытиях t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia has begun installing shelters and setting up protection around public transportation stops in Belgorod. These obviously aren't designed to take a direct hit but offer protection from sharpnel.

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Russia is reportedly relocating school children out of Belgorod to summer camp facilities elsewhere for safety reasons.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Белгородских школьников на фоне обстрелов отправят в более безопасные регионы страны Губернатор Белгородской области Вячеслав Гладков сообщил, что власти четырех регионов — Воронежской, Калужской, Тамбовской и Ярославской областей — согласились принять белгородских школьников в детские лагеря...

t.me

Russian MChS evacuating wounded from Belgorod.

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Russian Strikes.

A look at Russian strikes on Kiev. Russian hit the Kvazar factory, the Artem factory, a factory in Vishneviy, Mayak factory, a cement factory, the M-Tac uniform factory, and the Radio measurement plant. Note many of these are well known staples of the Ukrainian defense industry. The cement factory is a bit of a mystery, but it's quite likely the facilities were repurposed for something defense-related. This is a stark contrast to the strikes on Belgorod using MLRS packets against a dense built-up urban area.

Colonelcassad

А теперь пруфы по Киеву за январские праздники: 1. Завод Квазар был 2. Завод Артем в центре был 3. В Вишневом завод - поцарапан 4. Завод Маяк был. 5. Бетонный завод 2 человека есть прилеты 6. Завод Радиоизмеритель - поцарапан. Месть доброй воли

t.me

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Colonelcassad

t.me

Colonelcassad

Уипали по заводу Артема и КБ Луч. И там, и там я работал. Их бомбили весной и осенью 22-го. Ольха делается на заводе Артема разрабами КБ Луч. Решив вести огонь по штабам, ВКС РФ покарали объект кинжалами. Могли погибнуть рабочие и итр. Они погибли. Украинская пропаганда это скрывает. УТОЧНЯЮ...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️После удара в Киеве: так выглядит фабрика М-ТАС, чью одежду носят Зеленский, Залужный и нацистские батальоны В компании по производству тактической одежды сообщили, что разрушены склады и производственные мощности. Одежда этого бренда популярна среди руководства Украины и боевиков нацбатов...

t.me

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России поразила фабрику военной формы, которую носят Зеленский, Залужный и нацисты ▪️В результате атаки Киева повреждено производство тактической формы M-TAC, помогавшее нацистским формированиям типа "Кракена" и др. ▪️Компания сообщает, что производственные мощности и складские...

t.me

The Mikropribor plant was hit by a Kinzhal but it failed to detonate and was subsequently dug out of the ground by Ukraine.

Рыбарь

Об ударе ВС РФ по НИИ Микроприборов в Киеве Вчера по Сети разошлись фото из Киева, где местные службы выкапывали из грунта остатки упавшего боеприпаса в ходе налета 2 января. На фоне многочисленных споров о том, была ли находка боевой частью «Кинжала» или нет, за кадром остался самый интересный...

t.me

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There are reports that a Ukrainian UAV manufacturing facility in Kiev was also hit.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России ударила по инновационному центру дронов для ВСУ в Киеве, — нардеп Луценко "Сегодня в здание нашей мастерской, где работают наши специалисты (разработка новых решений в сфере БПЛА, улучшение и модернизация, ремонт и т.д.) прилетела ракета. Объем материального ущерба уточняем", -...

t.me

In Sumy Russia hit a factory near Shostka that produces detonators and primers for munitions.

Среди поражённых в ходе наиболее результативного за несколько месяцев удара целей - единственный на Украине завод по производству капсюлей-детонаторов

Российский удар по объектам противника на Украине, который наносился ночью и утром 13 января, стал самым результативным за последние несколько месяцев. Причём ракет сегодня было выпущено меньше, чем в ряде предшествующих ударов. Результативность оценивается в плане массовости преодоления

topwar.ru

Russia also struck targets in Kharkov. While the target is unclear we have secondary detonations.

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Evidence of Russia using a jet-engine Shahed variant has emerged.

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Первая атака реактивного «Шахида»: Он долетел до середины Украины со скоростью более 500 км/ч. Об этом с тревогой пишут вражеские ресурсы: "Первые фото частей реактивного БпЛА-камикадзе Shahed (вероятно 238) на территории Украины. Первая иранская бензиновая версия имела индекс "М", реактивная...

t.me

Ukrainian sources confirming that Russian strikes hit a missile manufacturing facility.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Украина от ракетного удара России потеряла предприятия, на которых могли производиться самые мощные ракеты в стране, — экс-глава ССО ВСУ генерал Кривонос ▪️"У нас власть "сливает" данные о предприятиях, которые были способны выпускать мощнейшее оружие", — заявил генерал. ▪️Никто не несет...

t.me

Videos of the Russian Kinzhal strike in Kiev recently provide some confirmation of what has been rumored for some time. The Kinzhal drops to ~3M on the last portion of it's trajectory, presumably making it possible to use it's guidance system, and of course making it possible to intercept.

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[Feanor]

Other interesting tidbits.

Russia has apparently deployed a Lancet variant with thermals. A set of videos have emerged showing their use. Continuing development of these munitions is to be expected and Russia clearly can produce thermals domestically.

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Russia deployed a brand new Yastreb-AV counter-battery radar to Ukraine where it was promptly destroyed by a Ukrainian strike.

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In their recent unmanned boat attacks on Crimea, Ukraine used a new variant with rockets mounted on them.

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Colonelcassad

ВСУ начали использовать надводные дроны для обстрела ракетами побережье Крыма. Вероятно, на этом дроне использовали 122-мм ракету от РСЗО «Град». @genshtab24

t.me

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A Ukrainian CV-90 getting hit, I suspect near Kremennaya. Note this is probably the most modern IFV Ukraine has in service.

Colonelcassad

Поражение беспилотником шведской БМП CV-90. Экипаж после поражения машины бежал (одного 300-го тащили за собой).

t.me

Reportedly Ukraine's Lt. General Pavlovich, Air Force, died recently. Circumstances are unclear. Reportedly he was involved in training Ukrainian pilots.

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The series of funerals of Ukrainian pilots continues with two other pilots being buried, one a MiG-29 pilot. This comes a week after Russian claims that they shot down multiple jets includign a MiG-29s recently.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Уничтожен МиГ-29 ВВС Украины с нереально молодым пилотом — потерю вскрыл некролог ▪️"Сообщается о гибели 23-летнего пилота украинского МиГ-29 с позывным Blue Helmet ("Голубая каска") во время недавнего вылета", - пишут украинские ресурсы. ▪️Отметим, что Минобороны РФ 29.12 сообщало, что...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Уничтожен ещё 1 боевой самолёт ВСУ: лётчика хоронят в Житомире ▪️Украинские СМИ сообщают, что самолёт с майором Романенко сбит во время выполнения боевого задания в конце декабря. ▪️Вчера сообщалось, что также уничтожен МиГ-29 ВВС Украины с юным 23-летним пилотом. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Reportedly the mass surrender of an entire Ukrainian platoon.

АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z

СДАЛИСЬ ЦЕЛЫМ ВЗВОДОМ В ПЛЕН! Очередное пополнение обменного фонда. Данные военнослужащие сдались в плен всем взводом после продолжительного боя. Есть среди них и идейные, и мобилизованные, которые ещё неделю назад были дома, а их затолкали в машину и отвезли на убой, и всякие разные. Но все...

t.me

Interesting look at two damaged Russian T-72B3s mod'22s surviving RPG hits due to ERA. Reportedly these were FPV drones carrying RPGs. Despite the advantages offered by things like Javelins and NLAWs, even fairly traditional ERA protection remains relevant.

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A couple of Russian Pantsyrs in the war zone, stuck in the ice.

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Russian TOS-1A with a RP-377UVM1L anti-UAV EW.

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A Russian MT-LB column. Note they're all up-gunned and up-armored. They're clearly being used as ersatz-IFVs.

Ибо зима и снег

Мотолыги с различными жилищами сверху Странно: судя по башенке фото отзеркалено?

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

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Russian MT-LB carrying an RBU depth charge launcher being used as an erzats MLRS.

МТЛБ с РБУ-6000

https://t.me/milinfolive/114254

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

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Russian 2M-3M MT-LB variant has been sighted again, with a roof cage too. This is possibly Russia's 39th Motor-Rifles.

МТЛБ - 2М-3 с "мангалом" и экранами

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A Russian T-55 with it's roof cage.

Старый добрый

Т-55 с мангалом ВС РФ

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russian CBRN recon vehicle on BTR-80 chassis with a roof cage. It's possible that it's being used as a regular APC. And a BTR-82A with a massive cage set up that cannot possibly be practical...

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Антидрон со всех сторон.

телеграм - канал bmpd

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A Russian T-90M with an unspecified EW station on it, in addition to the ERA and roof cage.

Новый тренд, помимо "мангалов"

Теперь видимо, кто как куда может, устанавливает на танки блоки РЭБ.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

An updated ZSA-T Linza MEDEVAC MRAP in Russian service with the 155th Marines.

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A Russian Z-STS armored truck in the war. The type was put into production as part of the current war, but after some fairly large initial quantity, there have been no news on further deliveries. This doesn't mean they aren't taking place, but it's not clear.

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Russian, Iranian, and DPRK 122mm shells in Russian service.

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Reportedly Syrians and Egyptians in Moscow enlisting in the Russian military, and receiving Russian citizenship.

Рыбарь

Ещё в начале января в сирийском оппозиционном сегменте появилось видео, снятое предположительно в Москве на пункте по отбору на военную службу по контракту. Граждане Сирии и Египта подписывают контракт с ВС РФ и получают российское гражданство. Мера, скажем прямо, актуальная: с осени 2023...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Сирийцы и египтяне заключают контракты с армией России и едут в зону СВО. ▪️«Сувейда 24» — оппозиционное сирийское СМИ — публикует ролик с одного из призывных пунктов ВС РФ в Москве, на котором группа сирийцев и египтян получает форму российской армии перед отправкой на полигон недалеко в...

t.me

A Somalian, Indian, and Syrian, in Russian military service, already near the front. If you're wondering what's going on in the video, they're being thanked for volunteering to defend Russia and liberate Russian lands, and being gifted tactical gloves.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Бойцы из Сомали, Сирии и Индии готовятся к бою в рядах армии России На видео добровольцы, подписавшие контракты с российской армией, во время стрелковой подготовки на полигоне в зоне СВО. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Chinese service members have shown up in Russian service, one of them was recently killed.

China army

В момент гибели китайского добровольца в зоне СВО Чжао Жуя с ним находился его соратник Сяо Цян (на фото в середине), который был ранен в результате сброса бомбы вражеским дроном. Сяо Цян рассказал, что укронацисты применяли также по ним запрещенные кассетные боеприпасы. @china3army

t.me

Colonelcassad

Доброволец из Китая 38-летний Чжао Жуй погиб на Запорожском направлении, защищая интересы России в борьбе с укронацизмом — Феникс ТВ @china3army

t.me

Russia is reporting 640k total contract service members, and 40k BARS service members that took part in the war, 7k of them still there.

https://iz.ru/1627583/2023-12-28/minoborony-soobshchilo-o-bolee-640-tys-kontraktnikov-v-armii

An up-armored VAB in Ukrainian service.

Зазаборенный француз

БТР VAB ВСУ

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

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Allegedly Ukrainian MT-LB with a BTR-60 turret.

МТЛБТР-60

МТ-ЛБ с башней от БТР-60ПБ

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A Ukrainain M1 with ERA sideskirts. Note the type has yet to see combat, and only a single btln was supplied to Ukraine.

Colonelcassad

Обмазанный ДЗ "Абрамс" где-то в тыловых районах. Перед применением идут попытки усиления защиты этих машин, чтобы не повторять ошибок с "Леопардами".

t.me

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Ukraine's 59th Motorized bde is riding Belgian Leo-1A5s. While better then nothing, they're going to be in for trouble if they run into anything remotely modern. I suspect we will see them uparmored with K1, and anything else Ukraine can get.

В ВСУ 59-ю бригаду вооружили танками Leopard 1A5 бельгийской армии

Согласно видео, опубликованному на днях в сети, танки Leopard 1A5, ранее служившие в бельгийской армии, теперь находятся на вооружении 59-й моторизованной бригады ВСУ. Как указывается в издании Army Recognition, в августе 2023 года 30 бывших бельгийских ОБТ были переданы компанией OIP Land Systems

topwar.ru

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Another Ukrainian 2S22 Bogdana variant has shown up.

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Ex-Yugoslav M-80 with a roof cage in Ukrainian service.

Хлипенько.

Украинская БМП М80 югославского производства с "мангалом". Шасси видимо не держит донагрузки, вот и сделали кое-как.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Ukrainian territorial defense team with a Chinese DShK clone, and Czech AK clones for rifles. Presumably this is an air defense detachment. But it's still noteworthy that they have no body armor or tactical rigs.

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Ukrainian forces using a Kub-M2 SAM. This is the predecessor to the Buk, using a similar architecture and compatible missiles.

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It appears Indian 155mm shells have shown up in Ukraine. India is currently investigating how this happened.

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Индия расследует возможность попадания своих артиллерийских снарядов на Украину

Как подчеркнуло издание The Economic Times, Индия не входит в число стран, поставляющих боеприпасы на Украину

tass.ru

Pakistani 125m shells have also shown up in Ukraine.

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Ukraine has begun the construction of massive defense lines in preparation for a strategic defense. This includes buried bunkers.

Colonelcassad

t.me

Ukraine's former attorney general Lutsenko recently claimed that Ukraine has lost 500k killed and heavily wounded in the current war. He mentions these as "безвозвратные потери" meaning service members won't be returning to service even if they survive.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Украинский шок: 500 000 военных ВСУ убиты и тяжело ранены, – экс-генпрокурор Луценко ▪️"Это будет шок, но украинцы заслужили знать, сколько человек погибло на войне и тогда снимутся все вопросы: нужна ли мобилизация", — заявил бывший Генеральный прокурор Украины Луценко ▪️Он добавил, что...

t.me

Ukraine has tightened mobilization efforts and has put new rules into place to make it easier to go after draft dodgers. As a result many Ukrainians are trying to leave. Meanwhile checkpoints have been set up around Kiev region to hand out draft notices. This has also sparked some protests from the families of already mobilized personnel. Ukrainian abroad are rushing to renew their documents as moving forward this will be impossible if one is dodging the mobilization.

Colonelcassad

Пытающиеся вырваться из Украины. После ужесточения запрета на выезд, будущее пушечное мясо стало накапливаться на западной границе Украины, не имея возможности выехать.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Власти врали неделю украинцам и всё же признали, что на новых блок-постах под Киевом вручают повестки ▪️Неделю назад власти заявили, что в рамках "контрдиверсионных" мероприятий в Киевской области увеличивают количество блокпостов и это никак не связано с мобилизацией. ▪️Комендант...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Коллапс на границе Украины: Массовый отказ на выезд инвалидов и многодетных ▪️Видео с границы, где сегодня перестали пропускать многих украинцев, имеющих право на выезд. ▪️Образовались огромные очереди из автобусов, в которых люди стоят уже больше суток. ▪️Проверки привели к массовому...

t.me

Рыбарь

Закономерным результатом публикации нашумевшего законопроекта о мобилизации на так называемой Украине стали протесты родственников уже мобилизованных членов ВСУ. Разумеется, тотальный контроль над украинским медиаполем пока сводит к минимуму резонанс от выступлений жителей, но их массовость и...

t.me

Рыбарь

Во многих европейских городах украинцы толпятся у консульств, чтобы оформить продление личных документов до вступления в силу нового мобилизационного закона. А могли бы спокойно, не толпясь, оборонять Авдеевку или штурмовать Артёмовск. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Европе орды украинских беженцев бросились срочно получать документы, так как после начала очередной волны рассылки повесток, который теперь будет распространен и на беженцев, им в получении документов могут отказать, а банковские карты быть заблокированы. Нацистский режим в Киеве найдет...

t.me

 

[Milne Bay]

Putting this here as unverified but interesting from several points of view.
Significant loss - if true
And what shot them down? Another interesting question

 

[T.C.P]

Putting this here as unverified but interesting from several points of view.
Significant loss - if true
And what shot them down? Another interesting question

Rumour mill is going crazy on this. some are syaing that it was shot down by Russia's own AD. Which is believable but beyond pathetic if that actually happened.

 

[Feanor]

The Il-22 landed already, damaged in some sort of incident but clearly did not crash. No word on the A-50. One other possibility nobody seems to be discussing is a collision.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг радостно вопит о якобы сбитых бортах А-50 и Ил-22 ВКС России над Азовским морем ▪️Украинская пропаганда заявила, что самолёты якобы сбиты ЗРК Patriot, естественно это ложь. ▪️Вскоре киевские СМИ сами опубликовали переговоры самолёта-ретранслятора Ил-22, который в итоге сел в Анапе. ▪️Ил...

t.me

Рыбарь

✈️ О возможной утрате А-50 и подбитом Ил-22 ВКС России над Азовским морем В украинском сегменте царит радость: над Азовским морем сбит А-50. Если подобная информация подтвердится, это станет очередным чёрным днём для российских ВКС и ПВО. ▪️Во-первых — из-за того, что А-50 не так много. А...

t.me

EDIT: According to Military Observer, the A-50 is A-50U RF-50601. Also the Il-22 allegedly landed at a civilian airfield in an emergency landing which led to their radio comms getting leaked.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[KipPotapych]

Is it just me or the reported percentage of intercepted Russian drones and missiles dropped significantly in the past couple of months or so? If it isn’t just me, what are the thoughts on the reasons for the reduction in intercept rates? Scarcity of resources? Russians doing something different?

Most (if not all) analysts and western governments officials predicted more and greater intensity strikes on the critical infrastructure this winter that Russians concentrated on last year, but it appears that Russia is avoiding it for the most part and puts most of the effort into striking manufacturing facilities, whether military or otherwise. What are the thoughts on this? Is this change in strategy the cause of lower interception rates due to the location of the Ukrainian air defences?