The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

Equipment for Ukraine drawn from Kuwait wasn’t combat-ready, IG says

If poorly maintained howitzers from Kuwait stock were sent directly to Ukraine, it "would have killed somebody," a DoD inspector general report found.

www.defensenews.com

Pentagon Inspector General Audit found that several location that house Army Prepositions Stock (APS), turn out to be in sub standards maintenance conditions. This is going to matter for US assets stocks send to Ukraine, as APS is where those stocks originate.

During the inspector general’s audit of that pre-positioned stock area, the fifth of seven such locations around the world, “we identified issues that resulted in unanticipated maintenance, repairs, and extended leadtimes to ensure the readiness of the military equipment selected to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the May 23 report stated.

The article focus on conditions of APS from Kuwait, but the report shown Inspector General found also similar conditions on other APS location, around the world.

US must then prepare further investments to refurbished those APS on fighting conditions. Well, guess Russia not the only one that have sub standards maintenance problem on their stocks inventories.

 

[contricusc]

This could make a lot of sense. If they are successful in ending the Russian occupation of Transnistria, it would allow Ukraine to redeploy troops currently on the Transnistria border to other regions.

I always wondered why is it taking so long to decide on cleaning Transnistria of Russian forces. Moldova should officialy ask Ukraine for assistance in demilitarizing Transnistria. For Moldova, it would resolve its territorial problem that stands in its way to join the EU and NATO, and for Ukraine it would remove a threat that forces them to keep troops locked there, and it could also provide a large amount of Soviet ammunition. A win-win for Moldova and Ukraine.

 

[vikingatespam]

I always wondered why is it taking so long to decide on cleaning Transnistria of Russian forces. Moldova should officialy ask Ukraine for assistance in demilitarizing Transnistria. For Moldova, it would resolve its territorial problem that stands in its way to join the EU and NATO, and for Ukraine it would remove a threat that forces them to keep troops locked there, and it could also provide a large amount of Soviet ammunition. A win-win for Moldova and Ukraine.

Im not even sure Moldova has a functional army. While it would be easy to cut TN in half, what would you do with it ? The ammo will probably get blown unless they cut a backdoor deal with the defenders.

 

[vonnoobie]

Im not even sure Moldova has a functional army. While it would be easy to cut TN in half, what would you do with it ? The ammo will probably get blown unless they cut a backdoor deal with the defenders.

All on the assumption it is prewired to blow, With the amount of ammo meant to be stored there you dont want to just be throwing a sachel charge into each bunker to blow it. That being said it also depends on quality of said ammo, It may have been well stored and good to go now, it may be in a condition that they can be rebuilt or it may be absolute junk.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

All on the assumption it is prewired to blow, With the amount of ammo meant to be stored there you dont want to just be throwing a sachel charge into each bunker to blow it. That being said it also depends on quality of said ammo, It may have been well stored and good to go now, it may be in a condition that they can be rebuilt or it may be absolute junk.

Most of the old Soviet stuff in that ammo dump at Cosbana is very old, and unstable, too unstable to be moved. So it sits there there like a giant powder keg being guarded by a mixed detachment Russian and Transnistrian "peacekeepers":

The largest illegal arms depot in Eastern Europe

A possible explosion of huge deposits of military material would cause an ecological and human disaster. The military depot in Cobasna was created in the 1940s in the Ribnita district, then the Moldavian SSR, now the separatist region of Transnistria. During the Soviet period, the artillery...

www.arnika.org

If the experts cited in the piece above are correct, if that dump were to blow, it would be equal to Hiroshima or a 7+ earthquake.

 

[Vivendi]

Equipment for Ukraine drawn from Kuwait wasn’t combat-ready, IG says

If poorly maintained howitzers from Kuwait stock were sent directly to Ukraine, it "would have killed somebody," a DoD inspector general report found.

www.defensenews.com

Pentagon Inspector General Audit found that several location that house Army Prepositions Stock (APS), turn out to be in sub standards maintenance conditions. This is going to matter for US assets stocks send to Ukraine, as APS is where those stocks originate.



The article focus on conditions of APS from Kuwait, but the report shown Inspector General found also similar conditions on other APS location, around the world.

US must then prepare further investments to refurbished those APS on fighting conditions. Well, guess Russia not the only one that have sub standards maintenance problem on their stocks inventories.

The way I read it, they found issues in one (1) location. This was due to the contractor. Nothing is mentioned about issues elsewhere

 

[ngatimozart]

Prigozhin has been at it again having a go at the Russian Military.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664687975941431297

He's also feuding with Kadyrov with Kadyrov taking the Kremlin line. He's standing into danger.

Feud Between Top Putin Allies Spills Out Into Open (newsweek.com)
.
Meanwhile the two Russian partisan groups have attacked Belgorod Oblast again and intend to eventually take Moscow. We'll see. Apparently someone hijacked Russian radio in Belgorod and broadcast that the Oblast was leaving the Russian Federation to become the Belgorod Peoples Republic. That caused panic and confusion in the city and Oblast.

Sweden has agreed to allow Ukrainian pilots to assess the JAS39 Gripen fighter. YouTube Video.

 

[koxinga]

SLD (Shangri-La Dialogue) going on in Singapore and Prabowo "offers" a so-called peace plan.

I am not sure if he is misinformed or smoking some strong stuff. His points were:

1. Immediate ceasefire.
2. Withdrawal by 15 km of troops from both sides, creation of a demilitarized zone in between.
3. Immediate UN peacekeeping deployment.
4. UN referendum in occupied territories.

The basic premise is fundmentally flawed, because the "occupied terrorities" are essentially Ukrainian terrorities. There isn't any dispute on the ownership in place. The referendum will fail also because I am not even sure if the current population are representative of the region because of internal displacement due the war.

 

[Feanor]

Meanwhile the two Russian partisan groups have attacked Belgorod Oblast again and intend to eventually take Moscow. We'll see. Apparently someone hijacked Russian radio in Belgorod and broadcast that the Oblast was leaving the Russian Federation to become the Belgorod Peoples Republic. That caused panic and confusion in the city and Oblast.

Local partisans always come from across the border, don't seem to contain any locals, and operate only in the border area with the support of a foreign military. The entire effort is clearly intended to pull Russian resources to the area but it's also clearly not Russian partisans. At best it's a formation of Russian citizens created by Ukraine and operating with generous support from the Ukrainian military. At worst it's literally just the Ukrainian military using a sock puppet.

 

[vikingatespam]

Local partisans always come from across the border, don't seem to contain any locals, and operate only in the border area with the support of a foreign military. The entire effort is clearly intended to pull Russian resources to the area but it's also clearly not Russian partisans. At best it's a formation of Russian citizens created by Ukraine and operating with generous support from the Ukrainian military. At worst it's literally just the Ukrainian military using a sock puppet.

Sock puppet, but a potentially useful one. At the end of the day, if the neo-nazi elements end up getting killed off while drawing off more RU resources thats a win.

 

[T.C.P]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/13whs4s
A pretty detailed vdieo on how Lnacet crews work. They are suing Zala observation drones for the lancet, cheaper and smaler than the using the Orlans.

Recently been seeing a lot of Krasnopol videos as well, I woder if the Zala obervers have laser designators for the Krasnopols or if Russia can only use the Orlans for that.

I have no idea how many Krasnopols Russia has and is actively supplying to their troops, but this video shows how they use it. If it can only be paired with the more relatively expensive Orlan, it could explain another bottleneck in their usage-

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/13z2rx5
On another note, most of the videos I have seen of supposed krasnopols, the title always claim that is from D-30s. Is their any reason why Russia uses their scarce guided shellls from their older atrillery and not from their more recent SPGs?

 

[swerve]

Most of the old Soviet stuff in that ammo dump at Cosbana is very old, and unstable, too unstable to be moved. So it sits there there like a giant powder keg being guarded by a mixed detachment Russian and Transnistrian "peacekeepers":

The largest illegal arms depot in Eastern Europe

A possible explosion of huge deposits of military material would cause an ecological and human disaster. The military depot in Cobasna was created in the 1940s in the Ribnita district, then the Moldavian SSR, now the separatist region of Transnistria. During the Soviet period, the artillery...

www.arnika.org

If the experts cited in the piece above are correct, if that dump were to blow, it would be equal to Hiroshima or a 7+ earthquake.

It says it has about 20,000 tons of weapons & ammunition. The Hiroshima bomb had a yield of about 15 kilotons, i.e. it was equivalent to the simultaneous explosion of 15,000 tons of TNT.

20,000 tons of weapons & ammunition would not produce a 15 kiloton explosion. Firstly, if accurately reported, not all of it is ammunition, & even if it was, it wouldn't have 15,000 tons of explosives. Most of the weight of a shell is in the casing, not the explosive. Secondly, it wouldn't all go off at once. There'd be a series of lesser explosions. It'd be very destructive, but not like an atom bomb of the same yield as the total weight of ammunition.

 

[Feanor]

I have no idea how many Krasnopols Russia has and is actively supplying to their troops, but this video shows how they use it. If it can only be paired with the more relatively expensive Orlan, it could explain another bottleneck in their usage-

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/13z2rx5
On another note, most of the videos I have seen of supposed krasnopols, the title always claim that is from D-30s. Is their any reason why Russia uses their scarce guided shellls from their older atrillery and not from their more recent SPGs?

A few things. First off, Russia has two laser-guided shells. The Krasnopol' is the 152mm, the Kitolov is the 122mm. It's the latter getting fired from D-30s. There's also the 240mm mortar shells Santimetr, but it's relatively scarce. Second off, Russia can definitely use things other then Orlans to paint the target. The original version was envisioned with SpN/recon teams using lasers to paint the target. Mating it to the Orlan was a relatively recent development, iirc 2019 is the first time we saw it in Syria. Thirdly, these are expensive shells with relatively limited production lines. This is the true bottleneck. Fourthly Russia's supply of "more recent" SPGs is dwindling. Production of Msta-SM even in the best years was two btlns annualy. That's 36 cannons. Even if they doubled that as part of the mobilization effort (unlikely, we're not seeing trains full of them like we do with the T-90Ms) that's 72 pieces. Russia has lost over 400 SP and over 200 towed artillery pieces this war. In addition, barrel wear seems to have taken a nasty toll on Russia's artillery forces.

EDIT: This is a Msta-B. I.e. the towed variant of Russia's most modern in service howitzer.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[ngatimozart]

Local partisans always come from across the border, don't seem to contain any locals, and operate only in the border area with the support of a foreign military. The entire effort is clearly intended to pull Russian resources to the area but it's also clearly not Russian partisans. At best it's a formation of Russian citizens created by Ukraine and operating with generous support from the Ukrainian military. At worst it's literally just the Ukrainian military using a sock puppet.

I think that we might be arguing semantics, but partisans are usually defined as a country's irregular forces operating within the same country to fight an occupying force, or against their own govt. It doesn't matter whether they attack from across the border of a neighbouring country, or attack from within their own country, or regardless of who arms and supplies them.

 

[Feanor]

I think that we might be arguing semantics, but partisans are usually defined as a country's irregular forces operating within the same country to fight an occupying force, or against their own govt. It doesn't matter whether they attack from across the border of a neighbouring country, or attack from within their own country, or regardless of who arms and supplies them.

I'm on board with this definition. LDNR forces fighting on Russia's side are Ukrainian partisans resisting their own government. Just don't publish that in a Ukrainian newspaper under your own name.

 

[ngatimozart]

I'm on board with this definition. LDNR forces fighting on Russia's side are Ukrainian partisans resisting their own government. Just don't publish that in a Ukrainian newspaper under your own name.

I was going to publish it under @Preceptor name.

 

[KipPotapych]

Meanwhile the two Russian partisan groups have attacked Belgorod Oblast again and intend to eventually take Moscow. We'll see.

Not sure if serious. The only other guy I know calling these “partisans” is Ponomarev:

A former member of Russia’s Duma who was expelled for anti-Kremlin activities has claimed that Russian partisans were allegedly behind a car bomb which blew up the daughter of one of Vladimir Putin’s close political allies on the outskirts of Moscow.

Speaking in Kyiv, where he is based, Ilya Ponomarev alleged the explosion on Saturday evening was the work of the National Republican Army, which he claimed was an underground group working inside Russia and dedicated to overthrowing the Putin regime.[…]

“This action, like many other partisan actions carried out on the territory of Russia in recent months, was carried out by the National Republican Army (NRA),” Ponomarev said. He was speaking in a 7pm broadcast on February Morning, a Russian-language opposition TV channel he launched in Kyiv earlier this year.

He added: “A momentous event took place near Moscow last night. This attack opens a new page in Russian resistance to Putinism. New – but not the last.”[…]

This is from a Guardian article a few months ago: Ex-Russian MP claims Russian partisans responsible for Moscow car bomb | Russia | The Guardian

Americans seem to disagree:

U.S. officials said the drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military or intelligence units, the latest in a series of covert actions against Russian targets that have unnerved the Biden administration.[…]

In addition to the drone attack, U.S. officials say they believe the Ukrainians were responsible for the assassination of the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, the killing of a pro-Russian blogger and a number of attacks in Russian towns near the border with Ukraine, the most recent of which occurred Monday.[…]

This is from a NYT article from a week or so ago: Ukrainians Were Likely Behind Kremlin Drone Attack, U.S. Officials Say

On this note, the same article suggests the following:

U.S. intelligence agencies do not know which unit carried out the attack and it was unclear whether President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top officials were aware of the operation, though some officials believe Mr. Zelensky was not.

And an article at the WP from yesterday suggests that Kiev may have no control of how the supplied weapons are being used, which is probably highlighted by recent statements from the State Department and other entities from other countries that they are not encouraging or supporting the attacks on Russian territory (to the point that the weapons are supplied on the condition that they are not to be used in Russia), as well as public statements from Ukrainian officials that they are “prohibited” to do so with the western supplied weapons.

[…]U.S. and Western officials have insisted that Ukraine carefully track the billions of dollars’ worth of weapons that have flowed into the country. Kyiv’s backers have also largely barred Ukrainian forces from using Western weapons and equipment for attacks on Russian soil. Yet the recent raid into Russia underscores how materiel can change hands in unpredictable ways, creating oversight challenges that few in Washington and Kyiv appear willing to acknowledge.[…]

The WP article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/03/nato-weapons-russia/

So “partisans” is a quite a bit of a stretch.

 

[ngatimozart]

Not sure if serious. The only other guy I know calling these “partisans” is Ponomarev:

A former member of Russia’s Duma who was expelled for anti-Kremlin activities has claimed that Russian partisans were allegedly behind a car bomb which blew up the daughter of one of Vladimir Putin’s close political allies on the outskirts of Moscow.

Speaking in Kyiv, where he is based, Ilya Ponomarev alleged the explosion on Saturday evening was the work of the National Republican Army, which he claimed was an underground group working inside Russia and dedicated to overthrowing the Putin regime.[…]

“This action, like many other partisan actions carried out on the territory of Russia in recent months, was carried out by the National Republican Army (NRA),” Ponomarev said. He was speaking in a 7pm broadcast on February Morning, a Russian-language opposition TV channel he launched in Kyiv earlier this year.

He added: “A momentous event took place near Moscow last night. This attack opens a new page in Russian resistance to Putinism. New – but not the last.”[…]

This is from a Guardian article a few months ago: Ex-Russian MP claims Russian partisans responsible for Moscow car bomb | Russia | The Guardian

Americans seem to disagree:

U.S. officials said the drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military or intelligence units, the latest in a series of covert actions against Russian targets that have unnerved the Biden administration.[…]

In addition to the drone attack, U.S. officials say they believe the Ukrainians were responsible for the assassination of the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, the killing of a pro-Russian blogger and a number of attacks in Russian towns near the border with Ukraine, the most recent of which occurred Monday.[…]

This is from a NYT article from a week or so ago: Ukrainians Were Likely Behind Kremlin Drone Attack, U.S. Officials Say

On this note, the same article suggests the following:

U.S. intelligence agencies do not know which unit carried out the attack and it was unclear whether President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top officials were aware of the operation, though some officials believe Mr. Zelensky was not.

And an article at the WP from yesterday suggests that Kiev may have no control of how the supplied weapons are being used, which is probably highlighted by recent statements from the State Department and other entities from other countries that they are not encouraging or supporting the attacks on Russian territory (to the point that the weapons are supplied on the condition that they are not to be used in Russia), as well as public statements from Ukrainian officials that they are “prohibited” to do so with the western supplied weapons.

[…]U.S. and Western officials have insisted that Ukraine carefully track the billions of dollars’ worth of weapons that have flowed into the country. Kyiv’s backers have also largely barred Ukrainian forces from using Western weapons and equipment for attacks on Russian soil. Yet the recent raid into Russia underscores how materiel can change hands in unpredictable ways, creating oversight challenges that few in Washington and Kyiv appear willing to acknowledge.[…]

The WP article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/03/nato-weapons-russia/

So “partisans” is a quite a bit of a stretch.

It doesn't matter because you are arguing semantics. The Kremlin call them terrorists; they could be called guerrillas. partisans, freedom fighters, liberation fighters, irregulars etc. It all depends upon the person who is talking about them. In the end it is just a label.

 

[hauritz]

Whether you call them partisans, freedom fighters or whatever, traditionally you see their activity increase preceding a major military operation. The last thing Russia would want to deal with now are internal security problems. Even low level activities would mean resources have to diverted from the frontline.

It kind of surprises me that we haven’t seen more of this. Russia is full of ethnic minorities that have little love of Moscow.

 

[KipPotapych]

I think “names” matter, especially when you refer to basically UA forces as “Russian partisans”. Otherwise, it provides a false idea of what is actually happening.

It kind of surprises me that we haven’t seen more of this. Russia is full of ethnic minorities that have little love of Moscow.

I am wondering what you are basing this on. Because I don’t believe this is the case. The “partisans” are also not the ethnic minorities you are referring to.