The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Musashi_kenshin · Feb 26, 2022

GermanHerman said:
The thing with Nato delivering lethal aid is that this will not change the outcome of the war but will greatly enhance the chance of russia escalating the conflict.

Hard disagree. Putin is a nasty piece of work, but he has limited options to escalate. Russia's threats towards NATO are usual bully boy tactics, relying on fear rather than backing words up with force.

So far Russia has cut off its airspace to the UK, no doubt because they hoped to make other countries scared of following suit. But now pretty much all of Eastern Europe and the Baltics are rushing to cutting off access to their airspace to Russian flights, so that's a failure.

Sending lethal aid to Ukraine is important for the following reasons.

1. Even if it will be hard for Ukraine to win outright, it may be able to suck Russia into bloody urban combat that forces Putin to agree to achieving far less than he wanted - e.g. the Ukrainian government staying in office under control of a majority of their pre-bellum territory.

2. It shows that NATO will not cave in to Russian threats. Just as Ukraine is a sovereign nation, NATO states are sovereign and have the absolute right to arm a nation that is neither under UN sanctions nor has committed any morally reprehensible crime. This strengthens NATO, because it shows we're all in this together, rather than ready to cut a deal with an aggressor and leave the periphery in the lurch.

3. It shatters the belief amongst Russian hawks that they can just walk into somewhere like the Baltics and win in a matter of hours. They could expect the same bloody fighting in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. That also strengthens NATO.

4. Somewhat more cynically it prolongs Russian military misery and increases the chances of rising Russian sentiment against Putin.

Capt. Ironpants · Feb 26, 2022

Feanor said:
Or their fuel trucks got destroyed. Some of the engineers vehicles we saw hit were fuel trucks.

There are many options including having Ukraine provide the trucks or at least the drivers, or signalling to Russia in advance that there is a corridor where foreign military aid will travel in unarmed and clearly marked trucks, and any strikes against them would be unwelcome. When Poland said they were sending aid to Ukraine, it came with footage of a truck column.

Given the huge refugee backlog/jam/logjam leading to border crossings (still visible on Google maps), I assume Ukraine has personnel keeping lanes open for inbound trucks (military and humanitarian aid) and, if using Ukrainian trucks to haul it in, outbound as well. I can't picture any Russian strikes on such convoys in the far west, and certainly certainly not in Lvov area, but how far east can these trucks go before being taken out by the Russians? And would they give a hoot about NATO statements such attacks would be "unwelcome"? I get the impression that, as far as the West and NATO are concerned, Putin has figured he might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. Again, I apologize for my ignorance in these matters, and hoping to learn.

(Edit for minor typos)

FD 3.14 · Feb 26, 2022

Rob c said:
Even in the middle of a war you can get some people who have a sense of humor.

Ukrainian man offers to tow enemy tank back to Russia after it runs out of fuel
Though the press needs to learn the difference between an armored fighting vehicle of various types and a tank.

^^^^^^ The smallest piece of information can he a gold mine for a analyst.

That tank was one tank of a unit that was scrounging the town for fuel.

Invasion forces shouldn’t run out of gas in three days.

In just about everything I’ve read logistics are Russia’s Achilles’ heel.

wittmanace · Feb 26, 2022

FD 3.14 said:
^^^^^^ The smallest piece of information can he a gold mine for a analyst.

That tank was one tank of a unit that was scrounging the town for fuel.

Invasion forces shouldn’t run out of gas in three days.

In just about everything I’ve read logistics are Russia’s Achilles’ heel.

If logistics, in this case fuel for armoured vehicles, are your achilles heel....why would you try and go as far from your source as you can or uncoil as fast as you can? the contrary would be true

Feanor · Feb 26, 2022

Musashi_kenshin said:
Hard disagree. Putin is a nasty piece of work, but he has limited options to escalate. Russia's threats towards NATO are usual bully boy tactics, relying on fear rather than backing words up with force.

So far Russia has cut off its airspace to the UK, no doubt because they hoped to make other countries scared of following suit. But now pretty much all of Eastern Europe and the Baltics are rushing to cutting off access to their airspace to Russian flights, so that's a failure.

Sending lethal aid to Ukraine is important for the following reasons.

1. Even if it will be hard for Ukraine to win outright, it may be able to suck Russia into bloody urban combat that forces Putin to agree to achieving far less than he wanted - e.g. the Ukrainian government staying in office under control of a majority of their pre-bellum territory.

2. It shows that NATO will not cave in to Russian threats. Just as Ukraine is a sovereign nation, NATO states are sovereign and have the absolute right to arm a nation that is neither under UN sanctions nor has committed any morally reprehensible crime. This strengthens NATO, because it shows we're all in this together, rather than ready to cut a deal with an aggressor and leave the periphery in the lurch.

3. It shatters the belief amongst Russian hawks that they can just walk into somewhere like the Baltics and win in a matter of hours. They could expect the same bloody fighting in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. That also strengthens NATO.

4. Somewhat more cynically it prolongs Russian military misery and increases the chances of rising Russian sentiment against Putin.

It's the logic of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. Except... if it won't change the outcome for Ukraine, merely lead to widespread destruction and misery, one might take issue with that approach. Bloody urban combat means large scale civilian casualties.

denix56 · Feb 26, 2022

Regarding fuel - there is message in Telegram channel (I dont know whether it is more true than the rest of info now) - The tank group (or something mechanized) went through Sumy oblast, and the 2 refuel vehicles followed them. These 2 vehicles got into ambush, 1 was destroyed, another one was stopped by local armed civillians. I assume something like it happens here and there, more like guerrilla war.

Blackshoe · Feb 26, 2022

OPSSG said:
2. More interestingly is the open call for drones by Ukraine as they dig into fight within the city centres. Using Molotov cocktails, is a sign of desperation — it’s a very short ranged weapon — a whole bunch of Ukrainian throwers can be machine gunned down. My preference is to make command wire triggered IEDs, or lay anti-tank mines when fighting armour. This is a tactically superior solution to the last ditch use of Molotov cocktails.

Genuinely shocked I haven't seen more videos of Ukrainian forces distributing IED making materials, especially EFPs. Granted, absence of evidence and all, but it's still very surprising for me

wittmanace · Feb 26, 2022

Blackshoe said:
Genuinely shocked I haven't seen more videos of Ukrainian forces distributing IED making materials, especially EFPs. Granted, absence of evidence and all, but it's still very surprising for me

to be fair one area it seems Ukraine has been doing very well is opsec, and people not filming their forces, positions, maneuvering etc.

I am inclined to believe that if media had got hints at it and were asked not to report, they wouldnt.

FD 3.14 · Feb 26, 2022

wittmanace said:
If logistics, in this case fuel for armoured vehicles, are your achilles heel....why would you try and go as far from your source as you can or uncoil as fast as you can? the contrary would be true

Because you’re using main battle tanks .......advance ......advance advance blitzkrieg style.

during an armored invasion there’s only two ways you don’t get your resupply.

either youv out run your supply lines or they they don’t have the ability to resupply you .

wittmanace · Feb 26, 2022

FD 3.14 said:
Because you’re using main battle tanks .......advance ......advance advance blitzkrieg style.

during an armored invasion there’s only two ways you don’t get your resupply.

either youv out run your supply lines or they they don’t have the ability to resupply you .

right, the thing is, advancing blitzkrieg style isnt a thing. Armored invasion is also not a thing. So I am very unclear as to what you mean here.

These formations, and not just groups of MBTs, operate in a manner determined in part by the need to be supplied by their own supply lines and units at specific time, event, or geography determined intervals, and other logistical needs. I dont believe for one second that anyone is seriously suggesting this is just a dash of MBTs, and that they are being held back by fuel trucks being held up by armed civilians (are they civilians still then???)

I also have to ask what the difference is, re "either youv out run your supply lines or they they don’t have the ability to resupply you"?

Blackshoe · Feb 26, 2022

Feanor said:
Russia seems to have launched some very ambitious air-assault operations at Gostomel' and now Vasilkov airfields to cut off Kiev from the west. The first failed to secure a landing for larger troop formations, the second apparently looked secure enough, and then didn't work out quite as planned.

I have commented on Twitter that some of the Russian ops feel a lot like Operation JUST CAUSE and URGENT FURY, where every elite units gets a chance to do Their Thing because we have to let them have a chance.

Feanor · Feb 26, 2022

Update.

This map looks about right to me. The blue circles are towns where Ukrainian forces are surrounded. Please take with a grain of salt, reliability of information is inherently limited, plus there's a time delay.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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