The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

wittmanace

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in what may be informational on the capabilities of the VDV, their ground force movements start at dawn and end at sundown mainly conducting daylight operations. this may be indicative of their NVG/Thermal tech for both infantry and armored units. As far back as 25-30 years ago most western Militaries and Especially the US Army prefer to conduct operations at night.

If we couldnt accomplish a mission at night, our units were considered untrained for that mission
This wouldnt explain a few key issues, such as the limited nighttime use of certain VDV units, like the 45th Orp, which are known to operate at night and drop at night. Further, Russian special forces certainly operate at night, and Syria has shown the Russian Airforce does hunt at night.

Even if the broader statement that the VDV doesnt fight or operate at night were true, it wouldnt be the reason for the 76th being in Belarus still.
 

Musashi_kenshin

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Counterpoint - we are seeing quite a bit of footage of destroyed Russian vehicles, and several attempts to move fast have failed including the air-assault operation west of Kiev that faltered and had to wait for mechanized formations to arrive from the north. This doesn't suggest that Russia is pacing itself. This suggests that the Russian military is trying to move as fast as possible, at the cost of some additional losses and less recon and planning.
My thoughts exactly. That and the dash for the airport. Why on earth would you try to take an airport just outside the capital on day 1 if you've got no intent to exploit that bridgehead immediately?

As I think we saw there was a bloody fight for it. Although it looks like Russia finally gained control they must have lost a lot of highly-trained personnel doing it, especially if they had to mount a second assault when allegedly Ukrainian forces retook it. Why do that if you're going slow and steady?
 

Feanor

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My thoughts exactly. That and the dash for the airport. Why on earth would you try to take an airport just outside the capital on day 1 if you've got no intent to exploit that bridgehead immediately?

As I think we saw there was a bloody fight for it. Although it looks like Russia finally gained control they must have lost a lot of highly-trained personnel doing it, especially if they had to mount a second assault when allegedly Ukrainian forces retook it. Why do that if you're going slow and steady?
We're also seeing them attempt to block large towns, and then move past them, instead of stopping to clear them. It seems likely that many of the units not yet committed are meant for that purpose.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Good argument. Counterpoint - we are seeing quite a bit of footage of destroyed Russian vehicles, and several attempts to move fast have failed including the air-assault operation west of Kiev that faltered and had to wait for mechanized formations to arrive from the north. This doesn't suggest that Russia is pacing itself. This suggests that the Russian military is trying to move as fast as possible, at the cost of some additional losses and less recon and planning.
Im wary of gauging losses based on either involved party releases or social media. Russia seems to have done very little to indicate losses for either side in the sense of footage etc. Consider their awareness of footage use in Armenia-Azerbaijan, as well as their own use of it re Syrian operations.

Id also argue that seeing losses when at this pace does not mean there would be fewer losses if they moved faster or slower. Initial losses are not really known, nor do we know relative losses.

Regarding the airport and the ground relief necessary, I dont think the localised initial failure of an air assault resulting in urgent ground relief means it is a trend or greater sign of overall panic, rush, pressure, or stress. I think if an assault force is to be overrun, youd rush to relieve them. Isnt this also what has occurred for western forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, even when there is no suggestion it means their respective armies were being overrun or that they were failing elsewhere.

In terms of indications of rushing and thus being less careful with recon and so forth, this pressure or rush would have seen faster use of reserves and other VDV elements, one would assume. If they are under pressure and faltering, would they withhold such forces? Would they not be going all out if they thought they were stalling? And frankly, I think theyd be relying on overwhelming firepower by now. I also get the impression that Russian pressure to get things moving would see much more aerial involvement, including freer use of dumb munitions. These arent things we are seeing.

Id also ask where the pressure comes from. I dont find it credible that he feels this huge domestic pressure, or that this is pressure that comes and goes in a few days. If he has pressure, itll be about the outcome, not what happens in a few days. It isnt exactly like Russia is awash with updates on the ground anyway.

Put it this way, given what we DO know, if they werent under pressure and had a plan, what would they be doing so differently form what they are doing.

Id also ask where we are seeing evidence that Ukraine is actually performing well militarily? Is this based on the relative speed of movements? or assumed losses? Id be very weary of either being used as a gauge. The response of handing out automatic weapons in the thousands to untrained civilians, asking civilians to make as many molotov cocktails as they can and to sue them against russian vehicles, and the steps taken in terms of men of conscription age do not suggest to me the Ukrainians believe their performance is what outlets such as Sky, BBC, CNN, etc seem to be implying. This is no slight on Ukrainian forces, to be clear.
 

Ranger25

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the German Chancellor seems to be reversing course on his reluctance to send lethal aid to Ukraine. Now urging governments to stand behind the Ukraine government and is sending 1000 ATGMS and 500 Stingers from German stocks


Estonia has closed its airspace to Russian flights, will become more difficult to reach Kaliningrad now



Poland and the Netherlands also sending more ATGMS as well as stingers to Ukraine. Poland is delivering to the border via truck convoy due to the current situations with airspace


 

wittmanace

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My thoughts exactly. That and the dash for the airport. Why on earth would you try to take an airport just outside the capital on day 1 if you've got no intent to exploit that bridgehead immediately?

As I think we saw there was a bloody fight for it. Although it looks like Russia finally gained control they must have lost a lot of highly-trained personnel doing it, especially if they had to mount a second assault when allegedly Ukrainian forces retook it. Why do that if you're going slow and steady?
Well, in my initial post I reference deep battle theory and the operational level. If what I have posited is correct, the VDV assaults on such positions are exactly what you'd expect to see actually. I would go so far as to say that Russian desperation or panic/pressure would have seen them actually using heavy fires to take out the airport in the face of a failed or partially failed VDV assault on it.

What aspect of taking the airport through the VDV rotorborne assault points to otherwise? If they were not rushed, theyd still do this, not least becuase theyre likely to want to cut off rearming efforts that we see other states have now committed to. There's pacing yourself and then there is hubris. Id suggest to not follow your own military doctrine/theory and not take the airport and allow it to operate would fall into the category of serious hubris.
 

Feanor

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Im wary of gauging losses based on either involved party releases or social media. Russia seems to have done very little to indicate losses for either side in the sense of footage etc. Consider their awareness of footage use in Armenia-Azerbaijan, as well as their own use of it re Syrian operations.

Id also argue that seeing losses when at this pace does not mean there would be fewer losses if they moved faster or slower. Initial losses are not really known, nor do we know relative losses.
Oryx blog is updating their casualty tracker, and backing it up with photos. Same with lostarmour. For lostarmour, filter by date for Ukraine as the conflict. Ukraine is definitely losing more, just not the kind of catastrophic "more" that one would expect. Of course these two sources use a relatively high standard of proof, but the proportions on lostarmour are still telling.


Regarding the airport and the ground relief necessary, I dont think the localised initial failure of an air assault resulting in urgent ground relief means it is a trend or greater sign of overall panic, rush, pressure, or stress. I think if an assault force is to be overrun, youd rush to relieve them. Isnt this also what has occurred for western forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, even when there is no suggestion it means their respective armies were being overrun or that they were failing elsewhere.

In terms of indications of rushing and thus being less careful with recon and so forth, this pressure or rush would have seen faster use of reserves and other VDV elements, one would assume. If they are under pressure and faltering, would they withhold such forces? Would they not be going all out if they thought they were stalling? And frankly, I think theyd be relying on overwhelming firepower by now. I also get the impression that Russian pressure to get things moving would see much more aerial involvement, including freer use of dumb munitions. These arent things we are seeing.
We're only on the third day of the war. They landed multiple air-assault forces deep into enemy territory, trying to seize airfields. The logical thing is that they want those airfields to land things they can't airdrop. And yet we don't see those larger landings, instead we see mechanized ground forces rushing to their relief. This indicates that the air-assault operation probably failed. Yes of course, this is what anyone would do, if in that situation. The point is that they're in that situation. Instead of An-124s and Il-76s landing with armored vehicles and artillery to back up the paratroopers/SpN/SOF, we have mostly additional units rushing on the ground. If the goal was never to land anything, and just to deploy tactical blocking units west of Kiev, why land at the airfields to begin with? Drop them in any field. If the goal was to destroy the airbases, that could have easily been done with missile strikes or bomber strikes.

Id also ask where the pressure comes from. I dont find it credible that he feels this huge domestic pressure, or that this is pressure that comes and goes in a few days. If he has pressure, itll be about the outcome, not what happens in a few days. It isnt exactly like Russia is awash with updates on the ground anyway.

Put it this way, given what we DO know, if they werent under pressure and had a plan, what would they be doing so differently form what they are doing.
As OPSSG said, the longer Ukraine puts up a credible fight, the more aid they will get from the west. The faster they collapse, the less. If Russia can end this in a week or two, it will be a fait accompli, a new reality that the west will have to face. If Russia gets bogged down for a month against organized resistance, not the occasional potshot but still functioning army units, that will be a different story.

Id also ask where we are seeing evidence that Ukraine is actually performing well militarily? Is this based on the relative speed of movements? or assumed losses? Id be very weary of either being used as a gauge. The response of handing out automatic weapons in the thousands to untrained civilians, asking civilians to make as many molotov cocktails as they can and to sue them against russian vehicles, and the steps taken in terms of men of conscription age do not suggest to me the Ukrainians believe their performance is what outlets such as Sky, BBC, CNN, etc seem to be implying. This is no slight on Ukrainian forces, to be clear.
The evidence is several destroyed Russian troop columns, and multiple lost vehicles. Ukraine isn't performing well, just better then one would expect. To me two destroyed engineers columns and one destroyed artillery column are signs that Russian reconnaissance or flank security (likely both) are failing. Otherwise the Ukrainian unit moving to ambush the column would have gotten spotted and hit. I suspect this is a planning failure, since the capabilities both UAS and regular recon, are there.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
If they are smart, they're probably slowing down at this point. Seeing more evidence of Russian columns being hit indicates there must be some groups of Ukrainians moving about forests and wooded areas with ATGMS. It would make sense to fully establish your bridgeheads make sure to have teams of your own navigating the forested and wooded areas. We just don't know much still.

It does seem the Russians are making a move towards Mariupol now. I've seen several collaborating reports that they're in Berdyansk and have captured the airport.

Russian tanks on the way to Mariupol from Berdyansk direction Berdyansk - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com


They can still easily turn this into a more limited operation if things don't go well. Still hard to say at this point. As for NATO countries sending lethal aid now. I feel that's risky. Especially if Russia decides to take those assets out.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
We're only on the third day of the war. They landed multiple air-assault forces deep into enemy territory, trying to seize airfields. The logical thing is that they want those airfields to land things they can't airdrop. And yet we don't see those larger landings, instead we see mechanized ground forces rushing to their relief. This indicates that the air-assault operation probably failed. Yes of course, this is what anyone would do, if in that situation. The point is that they're in that situation. Instead of An-124s and Il-76s landing with armored vehicles and artillery to back up the paratroopers/SpN/SOF, we have mostly additional units rushing on the ground. If the goal was never to land anything, and just to deploy tactical blocking units west of Kiev, why land at the airfields to begin with? Drop them in any field. If the goal was to destroy the airbases, that could have easily been done with missile strikes or bomber strikes.

Taking an airfield and not being in a hurry to use it doesnt mean youre under pressure. I would separate out the points of the failed assault and then the non use or method of relief. A failed landing assault needs relief. As a separate point, to not fly in AN-124s and Il-76s is perhaps indicative of uncertainty over air control, for example. The urgency to take airfields is perhaps precisely related to the efforts oft he west to supply more weapons.

Encircling cities or bypassing them rather than fighting through them is rather consistent with Russia having learnt lessons form the last 30 years, I'd dare say. The absence of a rush to assault Kiev with tanks is perhaps as much understood as Grachev's ghost as anything else.

I would also add that Russia would certainly rather fight the Ukrainian army in the field, rather than pressing ahead and perhaps being unable to pin the forces ion the field. Awareness of the problems of stay behind forces etc, as discussed elsewhere in this thread, would also point to the wish to proceed as they are.
 

Steinmetz

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As for not shutting down the internet or cutting the electricity; I feel the Russians are probably using it for intel as much as anyone else is. Civilians with smart phones in this situation, are a great resource.
 

Feanor

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They can still easily turn this into a more limited operation if things don't go well. Still hard to say at this point. As for NATO countries sending lethal aid now. I feel that's risky. Especially if Russia decides to take those assets out.
Limited to what? There are Russian troops on the right shore of the Dnepr. Mairupol' is being sandwiched in from both sides, once it falls there's your land corridor to Crimea. Kharkov and Sumy are under siege, and the northern axis has reached the Kiev suburbs. The next steps will likely involve LNR forces from the south and Russian forces from the north linking up in the Kharkov-Sumy area, units on the LDNR front line retreating to Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk, and anything that can still move around Kharkov-Sumy likely pulling back towards Kiev. Mariupol' will probably be blockaded initially, and Russian troops will head north-west from there. The main question is timeline, and how many losses Russia will take doing this. What countours of a more limited operation do you see here? That they might not land in Odessa? That they might not push past the Dnepr beyond the Kiev outskirts? That they might not assault Kiev and instead use this as a negotiating position?
 

Feanor

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Taking an airfield and not being in a hurry to use it doesnt mean youre under pressure. I would separate out the points of the failed assault and then the non use or method of relief. A failed landing assault needs relief. As a separate point, to not fly in AN-124s and Il-76s is perhaps indicative of uncertainty over air control, for example. The urgency to take airfields is perhaps precisely related to the efforts oft he west to supply more weapons.

Encircling cities or bypassing them rather than fighting through them is rather consistent with Russia having learnt lessons form the last 30 years, I'd dare say. The absence of a rush to assault Kiev with tanks is perhaps as much understood as Grachev's ghost as anything else.

I would also add that Russia would certainly rather fight the Ukrainian army in the field, rather than pressing ahead and perhaps being unable to pin the forces ion the field. Awareness of the problems of stay behind forces etc, as discussed elsewhere in this thread, would also point to the wish to proceed as they are.
The west is not going to fly transport jets with weapons into Ukraine. They will fly them to Poland and truck in L'vov across the border.
 

wittmanace

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They flew out to Poland and haven't returned. The airfield where they were based was hit by a Russian missile strike, and is likely now in Russian hands since it was near Melitopol'.
The absence of the airfield near Kiev might be one of multiple reasons for that.

Id also point to the speculation regarding being able to withdraw Ukrainian leaderhsip, perhaps also in light of the little helicopter role of Yanukovich
 

denix56

Active Member
Good argument. Counterpoint - we are seeing quite a bit of footage of destroyed Russian vehicles, and several attempts to move fast have failed including the air-assault operation west of Kiev that faltered and had to wait for mechanized formations to arrive from the north. This doesn't suggest that Russia is pacing itself. This suggests that the Russian military is trying to move as fast as possible, at the cost of some additional losses and less recon and planning.
There were multiple reports with video footages of the Russian mechanized groups trying to buy petrol from locals. I assume they try to move fast, that causes logistic issues. They also actually skip some towns after encircling them to move forward, but it also disrupts logistics to some extent.
Also some Ukrainian forces might strike the logistics as they remain uncovered while the front line moves.
 

Steinmetz

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Limited to what? There are Russian troops on the right shore of the Dnepr. Mairupol' is being sandwiched in from both sides, once it falls there's your land corridor to Crimea. Kharkov and Sumy are under siege, and the northern axis has reached the Kiev suburbs. The next steps will likely involve LNR forces from the south and Russian forces from the north linking up in the Kharkov-Sumy area, units on the LDNR front line retreating to Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk, and anything that can still move around Kharkov-Sumy likely pulling back towards Kiev. Mariupol' will probably be blockaded initially, and Russian troops will head north-west from there. The main question is timeline, and how many losses Russia will take doing this. What countours of a more limited operation do you see here? That they might not land in Odessa? That they might not push past the Dnepr beyond the Kiev outskirts? That they might not assault Kiev and instead use this as a negotiating position?
I wouldn't make any assumptions to any change of plans they might have. I do feel at least East of the Dniper and a full land corridor, including Odessa is within their primary objectives.

The west is not going to fly transport jets with weapons into Ukraine. They will fly them to Poland and truck in L'vov across the border.
They won't fly them in, I agree. Trucks are still targets, but also, if the they feel confident in sending trucks in, then Ukraine must have a pretty good air defense network still setup around Lyviv.
 

GermanHerman

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The thing with Nato delivering lethal aid is that this will not change the outcome of the war but will greatly enhance the chance of russia escalating the conflict.

I remember when in 2014 artillery shelled urban centers and everyday there were new pictures of dead civilians.

I agree with those who argue that russia is showing restrain, the more the fight gets dragged out the higher the propability of russia dropping any restrain gets.

One could argue that at the same time the chances of Putin ending the war rises, but it's questionable if he will (be able to) end the conflict without achiving some goals.
 

Feanor

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There were multiple reports with video footages of the Russian mechanized groups trying to buy petrol from locals. I assume they try to move fast, that causes logistic issues. They also actually skip some towns after encircling them to move forward, but it also disrupts logistics to some extent.
Also some Ukrainian forces might strike the logistics as they remain uncovered while the front line moves.
Or their fuel trucks got destroyed. Some of the engineers vehicles we saw hit were fuel trucks.

I wouldn't make any assumptions to any change of plans they might have. I do feel at least East of the Dniper and a full land corridor, including Odessa is within their primary objectives.

They won't fly them in, I agree. Trucks are still targets, but also, if the they feel confident in sending trucks in, then Ukraine must have a pretty good air defense network still setup around Lyviv.
There are many options including having Ukraine provide the trucks or at least the drivers, or signalling to Russia in advance that there is a corridor where foreign military aid will travel in unarmed and clearly marked trucks, and any strikes against them would be unwelcome. When Poland said they were sending aid to Ukraine, it came with footage of a truck column.
 
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