The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vivendi]

Chief problem with Gripen is the number. Unless current operators give Ukraine their air forces, the number which could be given would be very small. I agree it's a better fit for Ukraine's conditions, but there are probably significantly more spare F-16s quickly available & potentially far more.

You are right about the spares.

As mentioned in another thread, the number of available F-16 MLUs in Europe is actually not very high, some a/c are too old and worn out, others have been sold already. And some countries will not part with their F-16 (e.g., Greece, Turkey). Nevertheless, there are still a few left, and the US may also provide some F-16s.

Saab has 14 new airframes that nobody (so far) has bought, it would take a few months to turn them into aircraft, not sure how much they could speed it up. Sweden have around 100 Gripen C/D several of which will gradually be replaced by Gripen E. Had Sweden been in NATO one could argue that for a limited time period Sweden don't really need 100 Gripen, NATO offers more than enough protection (Hungary and Chechia have 14 Gripen each, and the Baltics have no fighter jets, relying exclusively on NATO allies to provide the capability). One could also argue that even without a NATO membership Sweden could manage with a reduced number of fighter jets for, say, a 2-year period. Some estimates say it will take at least 2 years for Russia to rebuild the military capabilities in the region (others say it will take even longer). I don't know how many Gripen E will be produced during the next 2 years, however the production lines in both Sweden and Brazil are up and running, with several airframes already produced already.

Although not an ideal solution, I think Ukraine could benefit from getting both F-16 and also a few (14 or so) Gripen. The Gripen could then be used mainly for a2a, given their advantages with Meteor, etc. It would complicate logistics of course however I think the Ukranians would be able to handle it, if they are given sufficient training and support.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel will withdraw its 24 AH-64A Peten helicopters from service by 2025.

מהירים יותר, חזקים יותר: מסוקי הקרב המתקדמים שיגיעו לישראל - וואלה חדשות

חיל האוויר יוציא משימוש 24 מסוקים שברשותו ובמקומם ככל הנראה ירכוש מארצות הברית כ-20 מסוקי אפאצ'י חדשים מסוג "אקו". בצה"ל מתלבטים אם לחכות ולרכוש דגם חדש שיהיה מוכן רק בתחילת העשור הבא. לפי ההערכות, העסקה תתאפשר בזכות סיוע צבאי שארצות הברית תספק לאוקראינים

news.walla.co.il

It is currently considering 2 options:
1. Wait about a decade until FARA is complete.
2. Buy Echo models now.

If Israel chooses the latter, the article says it can use the Ukraine aid program to provide Ukraine with the A model and have the US backfill with E model.

 

[seaspear]

Is it though the number of these aircraft that have aesa radars that face peer on peer aircraft such SU35 this is vital for survivability it seems there is a emphasis on older model aircraft

 

[Feanor]

Thank you for sharing.
This whole suicide mission into the Belgorod Region is pointless in my opinion, and also Russia's response on its own soil is not that impressive.
This shows indeed lack of professionalism from both sides.

As several people have pointed out, this has the clear purpose of pulling Russian resources there. Russia's front line is a giant arc, making movement of reserves more difficult for Russia then Ukraine. Additionally Russia has been able to reduce the front line length by pulling back, and Ukraine hasn't really engaged in combat action along the Russian state border, save the occasional indiscriminate shelling and cross border infiltration. As a result Russia hasn't had to man the entire border with troops in large quantities. This raid is clearly intended to force Russia to commit at least some forces along its state border with Ukraine thus making them less available for other parts of the front line.

EDIT: Prigozhin is on the line again with some strange statements. He's claiming that as part of the Atemovsk/Bakhmut campaign Wagner started out with 35 000 regular fighters, and added 50 000 prisoners. Casualties among prisoners are 10 000 KIA and 10 000 WIA. This is a horrific statistic, with 40% casualties, of which half are dead. Either their CASEVAC is utterly horrendous or something about the combat action in and around town was particularly deadly. I'm leaning on the former as the likeliest explanation. He also claims their regular fighters lost ~10 000 KIA. This means Russian forces lost ~20 000 KIA in this battle.

Next he claims that at peak times there were 50 000 Wagner fighters in and around the town, while Ukraine peaked out at 82 000 troops. With this in mind he claims 50 000 KIA and 70 000 WIA for Ukraine. I can't speak to the credibility of these numbers. Prigozhin has often spoken rough truths before but he's a side to the conflict and these numbers look very strange to me. One thought is that mechanized CASEVAC would not be readily available in town, especially once Wagner forces took the roads. And while we've seen Russian military personnel being helicoptered out, I don't think I've ever seen Wagner CASEVAC by air. So there might be a lower standard of support in place.

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[contricusc]

Next he claims that at peak times there were 50 000 Wagner fighters in and around the town, while Ukraine peaked out at 82 000 troops. With this in mind he claims 50 000 KIA and 70 000 WIA for Ukraine. I can't speak to the credibility of these numbers.

His numbers about Wagner may be true, but the numbers about Ukrainian troops are totally absurd. He basically claims that he lost 20 000 KIA to inflict 50 000 KIA to Ukraine, at a 2.5 kill ratio for an attacker that sends human waves and complains about lack of ammunition. This is borderline insane.

If he lost 20 000 KIA, then Ukraine probably lost at most 5 000 KIA considering the tactics involved and the type of battleground.

 

[Feanor]

His numbers about Wagner may be true, but the numbers about Ukrainian troops are totally absurd. He basically claims that he lost 20 000 KIA to inflict 50 000 KIA to Ukraine, at a 2.5 kill ratio for an attacker that sends human waves and complains about lack of ammunition. This is borderline insane.

If he lost 20 000 KIA, then Ukraine probably lost at most 5 000 KIA considering the tactics involved and the type of battleground.

Other then Ukrainian sources and the occasional shot of corpses, is there evidence of human wave attacks? I see it mostly being discussed but actual combat footage doesn't look like that. And there's a question about his complaints on shells. Other Russian sources have claimed that for a while Wagner basically got whatever they asked for whenever they asked for it, and when they were instead given the same quantity of shells as regular Russian Army, that's when they started complaining. In other words it's quite possible they were used to having 10 shells to every 1 Ukrainian one, able to simply pound anything even remotely suspicious, and instead were left with a more reasonable quantity. It's not clear. I too find his numbers questionable though.

EDIT:

Update Belgorod Region.

Mostly a wrap up of footage surfacing. First and foremost there is some speculation that some of the Ukrainian vehicles allegedly abandoned/destroyed are staged. Notable the while paint stating For Bakhmut on the burned out desert color Humvee looks like it was put over the burned metal, i.e. applied after the vehicle was destroyed. Also the two green Humvees in the ditch seems to be in awfully good condition for having been hit by a strike, and don't seem to have dirt in the tires, so are unlikely to have been stuck trying to get out of the ditch.

Moscow calling

"Хамви" с целыми стёклами не даёт покоя бойцам OSINT, вот их мнение: - Песок не застрял в протекторе шины. Грязи на шинах нет вообще. Авто было погружено в траншею с бортовой платформы. Даже малобюджетный фильм о войне не был бы таким неряшливым насчет реализма; - HMMWV врезался в край...

t.me

Moscow calling

Интеллект тех, для кого это делается, не позволяет понять им, что надписи «За Бахмут» сделаны ПОВЕРХ сгоревшей краски

t.me

Some footage of Ukrainian fighting positions in Kozinka. Despite Russian sources suggesting that they were digging in for a fight, these look pretty basic. Infantry digs in almost any time it stops moving.

Colonelcassad

Окопы украинских террористов, которые они копали в Козинке во время вторжения на территорию России. Явно готовились к удержанию поселка, но что-то пошло не так.

t.me

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Russian journalists come under fire as they try to film footage in Kozinka.

Colonelcassad

Журналисты издания "Ридовка" попали под обстрел в Белгородской области в районе КПП "Козинка" Обошлось без жертв. Противник продолжает обстрелы приграничной территории. Относительно фото окопов в Козинке, сообщают, что там были и наши окопы.

t.me

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Some footage of Grayvoron border checkpoint.

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Allegedly abandoned Ukrainian kit. Note the Arabic-looking writing actually says Glory to Ukraine in Cyrillic.

Colonelcassad

t.me

Russia claims 70 Ukrainian KIAs from the raid, but evidence remains scant.

Colonelcassad

Министр обороны РФ Шойгу заявил, что в ходе КТО в Белгородской области было уничтожено 70 украинских боевиков и различная техника. РФ будет жестко и оперативно отвечать на подобные выпады.

t.me

 

[Rob c]

For sure the F-18 would have less issues with FOD.

Not true, the nose wheel of the F16 is behind its intake were as the F18 intakes are behind the nose wheel and almost as low. The suction effect from intakes of a moving aircraft is negligible on the ground in front of the aircraft. the main cause of FOD is what is thrown up by the nose wheel including water and what is in the water. the RAAF lost a F111 at Ohakea some years ago. The fallacy that F16s are FOD prone is just that, a fallacy. For an even worse case, look at a modern B737. I have no problem flying in those.

 

[contricusc]

Other then Ukrainian sources and the occasional shot of corpses, is there evidence of human wave attacks? I see it mostly being discussed but actual combat footage doesn't look like that. And there's a question about his complaints on shells. Other Russian sources have claimed that for a while Wagner basically got whatever they asked for whenever they asked for it, and when they were instead given the same quantity of shells as regular Russian Army, that's when they started complaining. In other words it's quite possible they were used to having 10 shells to every 1 Ukrainian one, able to simply pound anything even remotely suspicious, and instead were left with a more reasonable quantity. It's not clear. I too find his numbers questionable though.

Even if this is the case and Wagner had excessive ammunition and was not using human waves, it is still unreasonable to believe they had a positive kill ratio against the Ukrainians for two reasons. One one hand, they wee on the offensive in a city with high rise buildings, which is the ideal battleground for defenders. On the other hand, it would have made no sense for Ukraine to defend the city for so long if it had a negative casualty ratio. The only rational reason for Ukraine to defend Bakhmut for such a long time was the ability to cause heavy losses to the attackers at a very advantageous kill ratio.

 

[vonnoobie]

I also find the claims on Ukrainian losses suspect. One might be able to logically argue Ukrainian losses could have been on par with Russian losses, even a little higher but to be 150% higher and Ukraine still in position to launch counter attacks on the flanks of Bakhmut?? Not likely at all.

What does stand out to me is Wagner suffered a higher rate of deaths then the prisoners 35,000/10,000 vs 50,000/10,000 is 28.57% vs 20%. I know its not all black and white and could be particular reasons for this just wondering what they may be.

Does he a give a time period for when Ukraine allegedly peaked at 82,000? That would be a good 12% of all Ukrainian forces in such a small area, the rest of the Ukranian lines should have been collapsing.

 

[Feanor]

Even if this is the case and Wagner had excessive ammunition and was not using human waves, it is still unreasonable to believe they had a positive kill ratio against the Ukrainians for two reasons.

Like I said, I don't trust those numbers either.

One one hand, they wee on the offensive in a city with high rise buildings, which is the ideal battleground for defenders.

If Russia could generate such lopsided kill ratios while attacking cities, Ukraine would be screwed big time. I'm not saying it's impossible, but Ukraine isn't that incapable and Russia isn't that capable. I tend to agree with this assessment.

On the other hand, it would have made no sense for Ukraine to defend the city for so long if it had a negative casualty ratio. The only rational reason for Ukraine to defend Bakhmut for such a long time was the ability to cause heavy losses to the attackers at a very advantageous kill ratio.

Or it's a political symbol, and one Ukraine needs as a rallying point at a time when morale is low, the war seems interminable, and you need to buy time for society and the military to hang on while you train your reserves for a big push in the spring (now summer). There are other possible reasons for the defense. And I suspect this mess didn't come cheaply for Ukraine. I also do suspect Ukraine has a disproportionately low number of WIA to KIA, just not this lopsided, since CASEVAC out of the city was problematic for some time, and there were reports that hospitals in the city were overwhelmed. I suspect Ukraine initially may have intended and even succeeded in doing that but as time dragged on, the situation became steadily worse for Ukraine. The point at which both MSRs were under Russian fire was the point at which the situation likely became disadvantageous. And reports from both sides generally support this where videos from the Ukrainian side became more pessimistic as time went on. At one point we got reports from the city hospital that Ukraine was talking about a company a day in casualties (which I would imagine is ~25 KIA and ~75 WIA, or with a more lop-sided ratio maybe 35 KIA and 65 WIA?). Again Ukraine threw troops into the city that often came with ~1 week of training before being sent to the front. Do you think they were as effective in combat as regular line units?

EDIT: Apparently the fighters involved in the Grayvoron raid gave an interview where they admit their two Humvees got stuck in a trench and that's why they were abandoned.

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More footage of one of the captured MRAPs.

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[vikingatespam]

Even if this is the case and Wagner had excessive ammunition and was not using human waves, it is still unreasonable to believe they had a positive kill ratio against the Ukrainians for two reasons. One one hand, they wee on the offensive in a city with high rise buildings, which is the ideal battleground for defenders. On the other hand, it would have made no sense for Ukraine to defend the city for so long if it had a negative casualty ratio. The only rational reason for Ukraine to defend Bakhmut for such a long time was the ability to cause heavy losses to the attackers at a very advantageous kill ratio.

Given the advance rates for Wagner were very low, I think this spells the P : P ratios were not far from 1. The UKR were the defenders, so I would have a difficult time predicting more UKR casualties than Wagner.

Having said that, Im not going to put too much faith in what Progozhin is saying one way or another.

 

[Feanor]

Update. Apr. 16th-18th

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Ukrainian patrol boat or tugboat on the Dnepr near Zaporozhye getting hit by a Russian loitering munition strike.

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Moscow calling

Поражение 13 марта украинского буксира проекта Т-63М "Костромич" при помощи "Ланцето"-подобного БПЛА близ Запорожья (47.729472, 35.159055).

t.me

Russia hits a Ukrainian howitzer position in Zaporozhye. Note we don't see the gun crew scattering, though it may be obscured by the trees. We don't see the cannon firing, or munitions detonating. This might be a mockup.

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Russian Kamaz-chassis Grads in Zaporozhye, firing.

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Russian VDV assault teams training in Zaporozhye. Though what they intend to assault there is unclear. Note the combat optics and suppressors. They sure don't look like line infantry. The anti-material rifle is interesting. The VDV has been using those for some time, and generally not as sniper rifles but against light vehicles. The Tigr-M with the RCWS is interesting but more interesting is the Tayfun MRAP with the RCWS. I think this is the first time we've seen that combination.

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The North.

Russia struck targets in Chernigov and Sumy region, presumably suspected Ukrainian staging areas.

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Oskol Front.

Russian artillery fires followed by an assault on Ukrainian positions. Woods near Kremennaya.

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Russian TOS-1 strike on Ukrainian vehicles in the woods of Kremennaya. Some vehicles clearly catch fire.

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LDNR Front.

Ukrainian forces detonating buildings as they retreat, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Moscow calling

Контролируемый подрыв здания Дома культуры на северо-западной окраине Бахмута (48.605770, 37.976730) при отходе ВСУ.

t.me

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Colonelcassad

ВСУшники подорвали при отступлении Дом Культуры в Артемовске. Вероятно, вместе с частью боеприпасов, которые хранились в подвальных помещениях.

t.me

Wagner crew-served weapon fires in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, a DShK HMG and AGS-17 automatic grenade launcher.

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A destroyed Dingo armored car near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженный в районе Артемовска немецкий бронеавтомобиль "Динго". Всего Германия передала на Украину 50 таких машин.

t.me

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The wreckage of allegedly the Ukrainian Su-25 downed on Jan 7th. Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Повёрнутые на войне

Наконец то появились кадры со сбитым украинским Су-25 в Артемовске. Музыканты свалили его ещё 7 января. Но до этого место падения было под противником.

t.me

Wagner fighters in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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Overrun Ukrainian positions near Avdeevka. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

Несколько фото с украинских позиций в лесу под Авдеевной, недавно отбитых одним из наших «Штормов». Если вкратце, то грязь, тела, мины и много-много-много гильз. Бой за эти позиции легким не был.

t.me

Zelenskiy visits Avdeevka. At this point Avdeevka isn't enveloped at all though it's on the front lines.

Moscow calling

Зеленский в Авдеевке. Осмотр руин домов, награждение бойцов ВСУ. Над кем они ржут на крайнем фото, ваше мнение?

t.me

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Ukrainian 2S17-2 Nona-SV near Avdeevka.

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Mar'inka, a Russian tank takes a hit from an FPV drone with some sort of munition, likely an RPG ground. Since the drone operator targets the front of the turret, the tank shrugs off the impact and keeps operating.

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Ukraine struck the center of Donetsk with a Grad strike, near a church during Orthodox Easter services.

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Ukrainian 2S3 near Konstantinovka with it's barrel blown apart allegedly due to subpar Pakistani munitions.

Moscow calling

Украинская 152-мм САУ "Акация" в Константиновке (Донецкая область). По словам автора видео, ствол разорвался из-за "качественных" пакистанских снарядов. Расчёт САУ, также по словам автора, не пострадал.

t.me

Ukrainian Shark UAV downed somewhere in Donetsk region.

Colonelcassad

В ДНР приземлили украинский БПЛА "Shark", предназначенный для глубинной разведки и корректировки огня. Как заявляет разработчик дрон может работать и в связке с американскими HIMERS. Камера "Shark" обладает 30-тикратным зумом. Беспилотник оборудован системой шифрованной связи. Дальность...

t.me

Unknown Ukrainian UAV downed over Donetsk.

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Russia.

Allegedly Ukrainian UAV strikes on energy infrastructure in Belgorod.

Moscow calling

Кадры ударов беспилотников по энергообъектам в Белгороде. Суровикин, ты воюешь не туда...

t.me

Wagner has apparently started training mobilized personnel for Russia up to 3 MRBdes. Note this indicates that my earlier assessments were correct. Russia still hasn't managed to put the 300k entirely through training. Quite a few aren't available for action yet. Given the performance of Wagner forces in combat, this is likely a good decision. But it should have been made 8 months ago.

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Misc.

Interesting footage of a Russian ATGM team on an ATV firing Metis ATGMs at a Ukrainian strong point. This is the Immortal Stalingrad volunteer unit. We saw footage of them shipping to the front some time ago.

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Ukrainian Osa getting hit by a loitering munition strike.

Война Z Украина

Уничтожение украинского ЗРК "Оса" российским дроном-камикадзе "Ланцет".

t.me

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Footage of Russian UAV operators calling in a strike. Note they record the coordinates using a phone as a voice recorder and then transmit that to speed up the process. Based on the terrain this is the Dnepr coast but where exactly is unclear.

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Battle damage after a Russian airstrike. Apparently they hit a building where Ukrainian forces had staged their gear.

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Russian T-72B3 mod'16 after a Javelin strike. Despite hitting square on a K-5 tile, it still penetrated the turret roof and hit the guns firing mechanism. Allegedly the crew survived.

Moscow calling

Российский Т-72Б3 обр. 2016 г. после попадания тандемной кумулятивной боевой части FGM-148 Javelin. Ракета прилетела точно в блок ДЗ "Контакт-5", но кумулятивная струя все равно пробила башню и повредила казенник. Экипаж не пострадал. К слову, один из распространённых мифов про Javelin - то...

t.me

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A look at Ukrainian vehicles trying to move in the mud. It puts into context why Ukraine is delaying their offensive.

GREY ZONE

Рубрика: погода. Готова ли земля для контрнаступления – отвечает ВСУ?!

t.me

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Bradleys in Ukrainian pixel camo. Reportedly in Ukraine.

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Colonelcassad

Американские БМП "Брэдли" в ВСУшном пиксельном камуфляже. Утверждается, что уже на Украине.

t.me

Ukrainian Nissan Patrol SUV turned into an ersatz armored vehicle.

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Improvised Ukrainian off-road vehicle. Reportedly carries 10.

Шуш

Украинская бронесамоделка. Движок - атмосферный дизель Mercedes, задний привод, рессорная подвеска. Заявляется возможность перевозки до 10 пассажиров. Подробнее тут (украинский сайт). Для понимания габаритов:

shusharmor.livejournal.com

.

Another Ukrainian MT-LB/Rapira hybrid. This one with an armored cabin around the gun.

МТЛБ - "Рапира"носец с рубкой.

Несколько фото машины с рубочкой вокруг ПТО. Было фото, еще вот в копилку. Судя по всему, снимки прошлогодние. PS: И пулемет сохранили, ошибку Фердинанда не повторили :)

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russia shows off an EW Orlan-10 variant called Moskit in service in Ukraine.

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Russian VDV riding a BMP-2M. Russia has two separate BMP-2 upgrades, one involves an extra armor kit that can relatively easily be mounted on existing vehicles. And one involves an expensive turret upgrade with a massive FCS and comms improvement, as well as ATGMs and an AGS-17. Combining the two would create something reasonably modern. But alas they're both deployed in limited quantities, and separately.

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A Russian T-80BVM mod'22, with even more K-1 installed over the cage armor.

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Russian T-90S in Ukraine. These are definitely export variant tanks and this is at least the 5th we've seen.

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Russian field hospital operating in Ukraine.

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Russian improvised armored vehicles heading to Ukraine. Some are donations.

Все полезно что в бой поехало

Мобилизованная инкассаторская Буханка с допброней со своей родной, поправляют в комментах (см. ниже) Некий БА - гантрак на базе Нивы, сделанный неравнодушными гражданами из г. Пермь.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

NATO/EU.

Slovakia reportedly handed over all 13 of it's MiG-29s to Ukraine.

Moscow calling

Словакия передала Украине все 13 обещанных истребителей МиГ-29, - министр обороны Словакии Ярослав Надь. Интересно, сколько времени понадобится человеку-Конашенкову, чтобы уничтожить их всех?

t.me

Allegedly Polish PT-91s in Ukrainian service. If accurate, this is our first sighting.

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Italian M109Ls being prepared for shipment to Ukraine. We can see some Italian Leo-1s there too. They might also end up going to Ukraine.

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The Netherlands have reportedly handed over a total of 196 YPR-765 APCs to Ukraine.

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Ukrainian Marines take delivery of AMX-10RCs.

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AMX-10RC в ВСУ

Министр обороны Украины опубликовал видео с переданными Францией на вооружение украинской армии колёсными танками AMX-10RC. Министр обороны Украины: Украинские морские пехотинцы приветствуют новую французскую кавалерию AMX-10! Мы прокатились вместе с нашими бойцами и договорились назвать АМХ-10…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

 

[contricusc]

At one point we got reports from the city hospital that Ukraine was talking about a company a day in casualties (which I would imagine is ~25 KIA and ~75 WIA, or with a more lop-sided ratio maybe 35 KIA and 65 WIA?).

That’s another reason why Prigozin’s numbers are way off. The reports of 100 casualties in a day are a highlight of the worst time for the Ukrainian defenders. It would basically take 1200 such days to reach the number of 50 000 KIA and 70 000 WIA. Considering the battle lasted for less than 10 months (300 days), you would need an average of 400 casualties per day on the Ukrainian side to reach Prigozin’s numbers. That is just absurd.

Again Ukraine threw troops into the city that often came with ~1 week of training before being sent to the front. Do you think they were as effective in combat as regular line units?

Those new troops were certainly not very effective, but I doubt Wagner’s prison troops got much more training. Overall, the average Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut were likely much better trained and equipped than Wagner’s prison recruits.

 

[Feanor]

That’s another reason why Prigozin’s numbers are way off. The reports of 100 casualties in a day are a highlight of the worst time for the Ukrainian defenders. It would basically take 1200 such days to reach the number of 50 000 KIA and 70 000 WIA. Considering the battle lasted for less than 10 months (300 days), you would need an average of 400 casualties per day on the Ukrainian side to reach Prigozin’s numbers. That is just absurd.

Those numbers came from inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Wagner was engaged north and south of the town. Again I don't trust his numbers. But I suspect the casualty figures, if we ever get the real ones, will also look strange. This was not a typical fight for either side.

Those new troops were certainly not very effective, but I doubt Wagner’s prison troops got much more training. Overall, the average Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut were likely much better trained and equipped than Wagner’s prison recruits.

Is there any evidence to support this? I suspect Wagner gave all their troops identical training, but this is just my feeling based on what I've observed. We lack data on Wagner. We have some data on Ukrainian forces being thrown in with minimal training.

EDIT: To be clear, I think Wagner took more losses then Ukraine. But how much more is an open question.

 

[Scott Elaurant]

My apology if this has been raised before. (I normally talk about ships). There was another ASPI article about the feasibility of Australia donating stored F18 Hornets (A model, not Super Hornets) to Ukraine. It is argued there are 40 F18As in storage, they could go to Ukraine for little cost to Australia. The article points out that there are two conflicting views on the condition of the Hornets.

Why Western fighter jets are critical to Ukraine’s success—and how Australia could help | The Strategist

US President Joe Biden’s decision on 19 May to help facilitate Ukraine’s efforts to procure advanced fourth-generation fighter aircraft was a significant shift in America’s posture. Announced at the G7 summit in Tokyo, the US ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Simple questions:
1. Assuming the Hornets are in reasonable condition, should Australia offer them?
2. Are the Hornets in flyable condition without major work and cost?

My assumption is that the F18 has a better radar than older F16s, sturdy undercarriage, and might prove more useful.

Acknowledged bias: I have Finnish relatives and Ukrainian-born Australian friends, so would like to see Australia do more to help.

 

[Vivendi]

Breaking news: "Sweden will provide basic training on Gripen".

Hmm, very interesting. I hope this means what hope it means.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661702563874447361

 

[hauritz]

The Swedish airforce has purchased over 200 Gripens but only have 80 in service so I am guessing they have a large number in storage. They could probably provide a substantial number to the Ukrainians fairly quickly.

 

[At lakes]

First Photo Showing Ukrainian Su-24 Armed With Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles Emerges

The Fencer was long rumored to be the Ukrainian aircraft of choice for using the British-supplied cruise missile. Two weeks after the announcement of the

theaviationist.com

The first photo's released by the UKR Defense of 2 Storm Shadow cruise missiles under the wing of the SU24.

 

[Vivendi]

The Swedish airforce has purchased over 200 Gripens but only have 80 in service so I am guessing they have a large number in storage. They could probably provide a substantial number to the Ukrainians fairly quickly.

No this is not the situation -- for various reasons the number of Gripen is very limited. On the other hand, I am guessing that the main fighter jet for Ukraine will be F-16. Since the F-16 has several limitations (in particular the version they will be getting) it would be beneficial for Ukraine to get even just a few Gripen (12-14) and use them mainly for a2a. I think this should be feasible.

 

[Vivendi]

Not true, the nose wheel of the F16 is behind its intake were as the F18 intakes are behind the nose wheel and almost as low. The suction effect from intakes of a moving aircraft is negligible on the ground in front of the aircraft. the main cause of FOD is what is thrown up by the nose wheel including water and what is in the water. the RAAF lost a F111 at Ohakea some years ago. The fallacy that F16s are FOD prone is just that, a fallacy. For an even worse case, look at a modern B737. I have no problem flying in those.

Thanks for the correction on F-18.

According to Justin Bronk, Gripen is less susceptible to FOD than either F-16 or Typhoon. Giving RAF Typhoons to Ukraine Would Be a Very Expensive Symbolic Gesture | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

The reason there is so much focus on FOD in Ukraine is due to the improvised, distributed, rough airfields they are using.

The MiG-29 is much more "FOD-resistant" than any Western fighter it seems. MIG29-Flight-Manual-Pt-1.pdf (jasonblair.net) (page 1-22)