The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

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Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The Ukrainian advances are currently west of the town. If they develop them sufficiently, several times greater then currently, then envelopment may become a possibility. But as of now that's not a credible threat. I suspect a much larger Ukrainian effort will be needed to accomplish that.

EDIT: Wagner forces raising the flag on the outer outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It looks like the edge of town but it's hard to confirm without geolocation.

On NOS they have shown a Russian video.
It seems that Bakhmut is almost/completely in Russian hands.
There appears to be conflicting reports with some in the Ukrainian govt denying that the Russians have totally occupied that which once was Bakhmut, but other Ukrainian reports claim that the Ukrainians withdrew to the west. I don't know who's right but based on logic I would suspect the latter because Zelenskiy has always said that when the Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut became untenable, they would withdraw, preserving the lives of their own military personnel rather than a defend to death scenario.

The other point to consider is that the battle for Bakhmut has fixed the Russians to a point where they have been slaughtered and lost a lot of material and equipment that they can't afford to lose. The Ukrainians only fed in enough men and equipment to slow down and fix in place the Russian forces, creating a major military focus for the Russians. Substantial Ukrainian reserve forces were not deployed to Bakhmut, instead being prepared for the future counter offensive. Apparently the Russians have been moving forces from other areas, such as Zaporizhia into the Bakhmut meat grinder, weakening those areas. It appears that the Ukrainians have been delivering HIMARS strikes on Russia transport nodes and routes, destroying components of those Russian forces on the move towards Bakhmut. I think that the Ukrainians may have started to shape the battlefield for their future offensive.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There appears to be conflicting reports with some in the Ukrainian govt denying that the Russians have totally occupied that which once was Bakhmut, but other Ukrainian reports claim that the Ukrainians withdrew to the west. I don't know who's right but based on logic I would suspect the latter because Zelenskiy has always said that when the Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut became untenable, they would withdraw, preserving the lives of their own military personnel rather than a defend to death scenario.
There seems to be some question about a south-western tidbit of the town south of the road to Krasnoe/Ivanovskoe. Ukraine may or may not retain a foothold. Can't be cleared up unless the front line moves again since the front line is so close to town.

The other point to consider is that the battle for Bakhmut has fixed the Russians to a point where they have been slaughtered and lost a lot of material and equipment that they can't afford to lose. The Ukrainians only fed in enough men and equipment to slow down and fix in place the Russian forces, creating a major military focus for the Russians. Substantial Ukrainian reserve forces were not deployed to Bakhmut, instead being prepared for the future counter offensive.
This is the Ukrainian narrative. However we have at least some evidence of Ukrainian reserves being committed to the fight around Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Apparently the Russians have been moving forces from other areas, such as Zaporizhia into the Bakhmut meat grinder, weakening those areas.
Is there any evidence of this? I haven't seen any, and I'm curious. The entire Artemovsk/Bakhmut fight for Russia has been Wagner and Wagner doesn't hold any other sections of the front line. There was some VDV presence on the flanks earlier but once the push got going in earnest, it was all Wagner.

It appears that the Ukrainians have been delivering HIMARS strikes on Russia transport nodes and routes, destroying components of those Russian forces on the move towards Bakhmut. I think that the Ukrainians may have started to shape the battlefield for their future offensive.
I think this is accurate. But they're not alone in this. Russian strikes in Kherson and Zaporozhye have been aimed to counter those efforts. The question is who will succeed.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Apr. 11th-12th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strike, allegedly Kherson region, producing a massive explosion. Allegedly they hit Ukrainian munition storage.


Ukrainian positions near Odessa. We can see a rare BMD-2.


Ukrainian mobilization efforts in Odessa.


LDNR Front.

Ukrainian Krab getting hit by a Russian loitering munition near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. They caught it out in the open likely while relocating. It catches fire and burns.


Ukrainian staging area hit in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, in a civilian house. Ukrainian service members run back into a burning house to save a Starlink terminal. They also talk about a car lost in the garage.


A large multi-story building is detonated in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The building is likely under Wagner control and was probably detonated by Ukrainian forces that mined it before withdrawing.


Two Ukrainian T-64BVs allegedly knocked out in a yard in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note they're covered in rubbish but there's no obvious damage. We definitely haven't seen these before.


Wagner fighters show off captured equipment, including an AT-4, a DP-27, and Maxim guns.


More aerial footage of the ruins of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The town is mostly gone.


Russian 132nd MRBde (former DNR 3rd MRBde) allegedly an Igla-S MANPADS team downing a Ukrainian Mi-8 over Avdeevka.


Russian 150th MRDiv in Mar'inka. Infantry supported by T-72B3mod'16s, T-90Ms, and BTR-82As.


An apartment building in Slavyansk got hit, presumably a Russian strike.


Russian National Guard repair unit in Lugansk region. Note they're working on BTR-80s, BTR-82As, BRDM-2s, Ural trucks, Tigr armored cars, and even captured Ukrainian Varta armored cars.


Russia.

Belgorod region, Novostroevka-Vtoraya and Stariy got hit by Ukrainian shelling.


Misc.

Russian EW system R-330 Zhitel' getting hit by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike. Note this EW system is meant to jam GPS signals.


Knocked out Ukrainian Bushmaster armored car, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian territorial defense in L'vov region training with a very rare Soviet GT-MU-D1 armored towing tractor. Note the hodge-podge of weapons, including what looks like an MG-42, and a DP-27.


Ukrainian 2S1 with anti-UAV cage armor. Note it's almost identical to the Russian version we saw a few updates back.


Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.


Russian BREM-1M with side-skirt ERA like a T-90M or T-72B3 mod'16, and K-1 on the front armor.


Brand new Russian TMT-S mine-trawl in action. You can see a mine going off.


Russian positions of the 10th BARS, location unclear. I don't believe we've seen this unit before. BARS initially was a 38k strong ready reserve formed in South MD with the idea that these service members would deploy individually with active-duty units when called upon. However with the current war they were formed into btln formations and have been engaged on the front line for quite a lengthy time.


NATO/EU.

French RAC 112 APILAS grenade launcher in Ukraine by way of Finland.


Ukrainian Giatsint-B howitzers likely from Finland based on the paint job.


Spain is preparing to ship 6 Leo-2A4s and 20 M113s to Ukraine shortly.


Captured Russian T-90A in Louisiana, USA.


A troop train of Turkish Cobra II armored cars heading towards Ukraine through Romania.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
A number of Russians have entered Russia from Ukraine today, claiming to be soldiers of "the Freedom of Russia Legion", it seems they are controlling a small region in Belgorod.

They are fighting Russian soldiers in Russia, and it seems they even downed a Russian Mi-8:

Another organization "Russian volunteer Corps" is also becoming more active:

Quite interesting development. Clever shaping operation...?
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
A number of Russians have entered Russia from Ukraine today, claiming to be "soldiers of the Freedom of Russia Legion", it seems they are controlling a small region in Belgorod.

They are fighting Russian soldiers in Russia, and it seems they even downed a Russian Mi-8:

Quite interesting development. Clever shaping operation...?
It appears to be a cross-border raid like the last ones, but larger in scale. Whether they're Russians or not is of course anyone's guess, but it's happening around Grayvoron checkpoint and the villages in the area. The helo downing was initially reported by a single child, with no corroboration yet. A fake telegram channel called Grayvoron LIVE claiming to be local was also uploading quite a bit of misinformation on the subject. The 4th-6th links have some videos of the Ukrainian attack on the border checkpoint. We can see a couple of humvees and an armored car of some sort involved. Rozhin claims the two Humvees were later destroyed, hard to confirm without footage. We also see a tank.


Ukrainian forces inside Russia stopping a civilian vehicle. Purpose is unclear but we can see them setting up an SPG-9 recoilless rifle next to it.


Video from Belgorod region where heavy weapons' fire can be heard in the distance, and an Mi-26 can be seen flying. Russia has previously used Mi-26s to rapidly move reserves when Ukrainian forces caused a breakthrough.


More Russian helos over Belgorod flying towards Grayvoron.


Allegedly that very same troop column that attacked the border checkpoint moving towards it.


EDIT: A Russian BMP-3 on the streets of Grayvoron and smoke from fires suggesting that Ukrainian forces made it all the way to Grayvoron (the third village from the border).


Russian UAV footage of Ukrainian forces in a village in Belgorod region.


Ukrainian soldier with a MaxxPro MRAP in Belgorod region.


Allegedly fighting is ongoing in Glotovo and Kozinka villages.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
How do you recognize these as Ukrainian forces?
How do I know these are not Russian government forces? The uniforms and the context surrounding it. Or are you arguing that the proxy-formations made out of Russian nationals in Ukraine are not "Ukrainian forces"? I refer to the LDNR rebels as Russian forces, I'm going to identify the Ukrainian "Russian Volunteer Corps" as Ukrainian Forces to simplify it. We don't call the Georgian Legion "Georgian Forces". We call them Ukrainian forces to simplify descriptions.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Belgorod Region

It appears Ukrainian forces have been pushed back from Grayvoron itself but are now set up around Kozinka with Glotovo still on the front lines, possibly contested. There are reports of ~30 Ukrainian soldiers set up in a church on the north side of the village, and Russian sources estimate around 100 fighters in the area. Most of Ukraine's vehicles appear to have withdrawn, though at least one MaxxPro MRAP was knocked out and abandoned. Russian sources report 8 wounded civilians, 39 enemy KIA, and 5 enemy POWs. Ukraine claims one POW. Note there is currently scarce evidence from the Ukrainian side, and literally no evidence from the Russian side.


This Russian POW was allegedly taken during this raid.


Apparently Ukrainian forces captured a Russian BTR-82A at Grayvoron.


Russian Su-25 over Grayvoron area.


According to Military Observer, at least 3 MaxxPro MRAPs entered Belgorod region. The one we saw above and the one knocked out are different vehicles.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Apr. 13th-16th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Another Russian strike against Berislav. Russia has been striking Kherson region regularly, suggesting that Ukraine's efforts to prepare for forcing the Dnepr have drawn some attention.


The Tavricheskiy neighborhood of Kherson got hit. Two civilians were killed.


Russian strike, Kherson region, allegedly munition and fuel storage.


Russian security forces found a bunch of munitions in Kherson region. Note these could well be abandoned Ukrainian stores.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Ukrainian M270 firing, Zaporozhye region.


Russian airstrike on Zaporozhye.


Allegedly a Ukrainian strong point getting hit in Zaporozhye region. Note it makes little sense to strike Ukrainian positions, the priority now should be interdiction.


Battle damage after a Russian strike in Orekhov. I think we've already seen this damage.


Russian transports carrying Arctic off-terrain vehicles in Melitopol', likely related to a shortage of vehicles.


Russian T-54/55s show up in Ukraine. With hindsight we know they're attached to an artillery unit in Zaporozhye.


Russian Kamaz chassis Grad in Zaporozhye region.


The West.

L'vov region a Ukrainian training camp got hit by a Russian strike.


The North.

A psych war in Sumy region got hit. It house over 150 patients, casualties are unclear. It's also unclear if the patients were still there at the time of the strike. Many public facilities like schools were repurposed as troop staging areas.


Reportedly Russia struck an industrial target in Chernigov. What it was is unclear.


Oskol Front.

Ukrainian M109 destroyed allegedly near Kupyansk. The filming is being done from a BMP-1. This was allegedly a loitering munition strike.


A Ukrainian T-80 getting hit by a loitering munition near Kupyansk. Note due to the suboptimal angle and small warhead it's likely the tank survived, though likely took serious damage.


Allegedly Ukrainian tanks getting hit in the woods of Kremennaya. While the tree cover makes it impossible to make out what's getting hit, the explosion is considerable.


Near Kremennaya, LNR 4th Bde MBT shooting up Ukrainian positions, as it withdraws takes an RPG hit to the turret. Reportedly the tank and crew survived.


Russian T-90M fires in the woods near Kremennaya. It's got the Nakidka thermal shroud.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Russian forces striking Ukrainian infantry in Belogorovka.


A Ukrainian Humvee burns, allegedly near Seversk. It appears to be some sort of specialized vehicle on the Humvee but type is unclear.


Russian loitering munition hitting a Ukrainian 79K6 Pelican radar near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian light armor transport vehicle getting hit near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It's hard to make out what it is, but it looks tracked. Could be a BMP, a Spartan, or even a M113.


Russian artillery striking Ukrainian forces in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian Wagner fighter gets hit in the head by a round, but is saved by his kevlar. He can celebrate a second birthday on this date, as he appears to be ok.


Ukrainian soldiers trying to evacuated a WIA under fire, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Wagner Fagot ATGM team in action, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian service member from the 57th Mech in action, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A destroyed MT-LB and FV103 Spartan APC, both allegedly Ukrainian.


A destroyed BMP-2, allegedly Ukrainian, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A Ukrainian soldier films a Grad packet landing across the street from him.


A massive explosion in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, possibly underground munition storage detonating.


Assorted footage from the Russian side out of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note the T-90M mod'23, with K-1 tiles on the chain-net hanging off the turret. Note the two links have different photos.


Another look at Wagner's T-90M mod'23, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Wagner fighters in Freedom Square, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian improvised heavy APC on a T-64 chassis. Reportedly the troop compartment can be removed again. It's likely the protection level on it is far lower. It's been sighted in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian sources report that some of the reinforcements arriving in Artemovsk/Bakhmut received only 5 days of training, don't know how to hold their weapons or reload their machineguns.


TOS-1 strike landing at Nevel'skoe, as 110th Bde armored vehicles advance. With hindsight we know the village is still in Ukrainian hands so this attack must have failed. If I'm reading the location correctly, this must be south of Pervomayskoe.


Russian Msta-S with an anti-UAV cage on top, in action near Mar'inka. Likely 150th Motor-Rifles.


Russian Su-34 strikes near Ugledar.


A better shot of destroyed Russian armor near Ugledar. Note Russia seems to have given up on taking the town.


Russian 60th Motor-Rifles near Velikaya Novoselka, west of Ugledar. We have a 120mm mortar team in action. We've had very little footage from this section of the front.


Russian troop column near Donetsk, with a (these days) rare T-72B. Apparently it's part of a South MD unit heading to Mar'inka.


7 S-300 missiles fell on an area of Slavyansk, suggesting either a massive failure of Ukrainian air defenses or that Russia is using S-300 missiles against ground targets. Some of the missiles hit a residential apartment building, with a death toll so far of 5 killed and 15 wounded.


Russian strikes reportedly landed in Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. These are likely aimed at Ukrainian troops and supplies heading to the Artemovsk/Bakhmut meatgrinder.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia.

A fire burns at the Belgorod powerplant, possibly a Ukrainian strike.


Misc.

Allegedly two Russian MBTs getting hit by SMArt round submunitions.


Ukrainian Krab getting hit allegedly by a Krasnopol' round.


Ukrainian ZU-23-2 guntruck getting hit. Location and context unclear. We can see it firing right before, so it's possible this is a loitering munition strike.


Russian quadcopter drops a hand grenade into a Ukrainian dugout, a Ukrainian soldier hiding from the copter goes down there, presumably not realizing a grenade just went down the hole.


Russian mobilized personnel delivering MT-12 fires, allegedly mobilized personnel. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian UAV allegedly downed by Russian EW. Location and context unclear.


Russian BTR-82A with an anti-UAV net that caught a UAV-dropped munition.


Russian forces have been spotted with ATS-59G off-road tractors carrying the same 2M-3M naval turrets.


France 24 published a report on Russian mobilized personnel training somewhere in Ukraine. Western coverage of the Russian military is extremely rare.


Russian Sadko trucks with naval machineguns in the back.


Ukrainian AAA technicals, possibly Kiev.


Ukrainian motorcycles with ATGMs, possible Metis.


A Ukrainian howitzer hiding behind quite a bit of anti-UAV netting. It's horizontal in addition to vertical.


Ukrainian forces converting a captured T-62M into an ARV. Considering the state of the barrel and the lack of 115mm shells, this makes sense.


Ukrainian BMP-2 with cage armor on the sides and rubber sheeting on the front.


Ukrainian forces with Avenger SAMs. Note this is basically an American Strela-10 equivalent so hardly a new capability, but a necessary replacement for attrition.


Another shot of AS-90s in Ukraine.


It appears Ukraine has begun manufacturing 120mm mortar shells. I suspect some of Ukraine's new manufacturing is actually taking place in Poland.


Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.


NATO/EU.

A train in Italy of M109L howitzers near the Slovenian border, presumably heading to Ukraine.


M2A2 ODS arrives in Ukraine. Still in desert colors.


Norwegian, Polish, and Canadian military instructors in Poland training Ukrainian crews on Bergenpanzer-2 and Leo-2A4 operations.


A British WS-61 Sea King handed over to Ukraine.


Germany has reportedly approved ex-GDR MiG-29s for transfer to Ukraine. Note the former East Germany MiG-29 fleet is now in Poland.


Reportedly the first Dutch Leo-1s will be going to Ukraine shortly.


Ukraine appears to have taken delivery of a single Blackhawk. The reasoning behind this is unclear.

 

At lakes

Well-Known Member
[QUOTE="Feanor, post: 425271, member: 186]

raine appears to have taken delivery of a single Blackhawk. The reasoning behind this is unclear.

[/QUOTE]
refer post 6871 for a better picture of said Blackhawk
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update Belgorod Region.

It appears Ukraine's raid around Grayvoron has been defeated. I think this outcome was inevitable and this is likely more meant to distract from efforts elsewhere then serve as a major offensive. Ukrainian vehicles parked at the Grayvoron border checkpoint were destroyed by a Russia strike once again showing thorough ineptitude from both sides. Russia comically missed the preparations and movement to contact of the Ukrainian forces, then took nearly a day to organize a strike against those forces parked at the checkpoint. Ukraine on the other hand after taking a border checkpoint, simply left vehicles parked in the open to get hit. Neither side put their best foot forward in my opinion. We have 3 destroyed armored humvees, a pickup truck, and an armored car I can't readily identify. Russian forces also apparently captured a second MaxxPro MRAP, as well as some munitions and weapons.

According to Rybar there are still ~500 Ukrainian troops in Pisarevka on the other side of the border and rumors are circulating about another Ukrainian offensive. But Grayvoron checkpoint is under Russian control and there are two destroyed armored cars that are AMZ Dzik.



Allegedly Ukrainian KIAs from Belgorod region. Note, I usually don't publish photos of dead bodies for their own sake but in this case it's the first proof of Ukrainian casualties. Warning footage of corpses.


Russian infantry in Kozinka, based on how they're moving they're likely not in contact with the enemy.


Ukrainian troop column before they entered Belgorod region.


Ukrainian forces massing at Grayvoron checkpoint before yesterday's fighting. Note some channels are spreading photos from yesterday claiming they are from today. Also note the masses of troops relatively in the open. A perfect opportunity for Russia to strike on known coordinates, and yet...


Footage out of Glotovo after the fighting. The driver claims that there were no civilian deaths, only some wounded, and most of the locals are evacuated. Also claims there is no major damage.


Elsewhere in Belgorod Region.

In Belgorod a Ukrainian quadcopter dropped a small munition on the roof of the FSB building. No casualties reported at this time.


There are unconfirmed reports of a Ukrainian probing attack near Schetinovo in western Belgorod region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update Belgorod Region.

It appears Colonel-General Lapin personally took command of the efforts in Belgorod region. Here's him posing with one of the knocked out MRAPs.


A curious video of Lapin personally directing what appears to be an infantry platoon, support by a BMP-2, to advance. Note the general isn't carrying a weapon and is being filmed thoroughly the entire team. The whole mess looks staged, possibly intended to let him recover some of his reputation after his poor performance at the front.


Here's that same MRAP during day hours.


A destroyed armored car, we've seen above. It's allegedly a KrAZ Cobra.


According to Military Observer Ukrainian vehicle losses are broken down as follows; 2 MaxxPro MRAPs, 3 Humvees, 1 KrAZ Cobra, one AMZ Dzik-2. Second link has some more photos.


Some footage of Ukrainian forces rolling up to Grayvoron border checkpoint. The lack of damage from the Russian strike indicates that this footage is from yesterday.


Russia hauling away one of the captured MRAPs.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Update Belgorod Region.

It appears Ukraine's raid around Grayvoron has been defeated. I think this outcome was inevitable and this is likely more meant to distract from efforts elsewhere then serve as a major offensive. Ukrainian vehicles parked at the Grayvoron border checkpoint were destroyed by a Russia strike once again showing thorough ineptitude from both sides. Russia comically missed the preparations and movement to contact of the Ukrainian forces, then took nearly a day to organize a strike against those forces parked at the checkpoint. Ukraine on the other hand after taking a border checkpoint, simply left vehicles parked in the open to get hit. Neither side put their best foot forward in my opinion. We have 3 destroyed armored humvees, a pickup truck, and an armored car I can't readily identify. Russian forces also apparently captured a second MaxxPro MRAP, as well as some munitions and weapons.

According to Rybar there are still ~500 Ukrainian troops in Pisarevka on the other side of the border and rumors are circulating about another Ukrainian offensive. But Grayvoron checkpoint is under Russian control and there are two destroyed armored cars that are AMZ Dzik.



Allegedly Ukrainian KIAs from Belgorod region. Note, I usually don't publish photos of dead bodies for their own sake but in this case it's the first proof of Ukrainian casualties. Warning footage of corpses.


Russian infantry in Kozinka, based on how they're moving they're likely not in contact with the enemy.


Ukrainian troop column before they entered Belgorod region.


Ukrainian forces massing at Grayvoron checkpoint before yesterday's fighting. Note some channels are spreading photos from yesterday claiming they are from today. Also note the masses of troops relatively in the open. A perfect opportunity for Russia to strike on known coordinates, and yet...


Footage out of Glotovo after the fighting. The driver claims that there were no civilian deaths, only some wounded, and most of the locals are evacuated. Also claims there is no major damage.


Elsewhere in Belgorod Region.

In Belgorod a Ukrainian quadcopter dropped a small munition on the roof of the FSB building. No casualties reported at this time.


There are unconfirmed reports of a Ukrainian probing attack near Schetinovo in western Belgorod region.

Thank you for sharing.
This whole suicide mission into the Belgorod Region is pointless in my opinion, and also Russia's response on its own soil is not that impressive.
This shows indeed lack of professionalism from both sides.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Thank you for sharing.
This whole suicide mission into the Belgorod Region is pointless in my opinion, and also Russia's response on its own soil is not that impressive.
This shows indeed lack of professionalism from both sides.
I beg to differ. I think General Mark Hertling got it right. He believes this was a raid. He defines a raid to be a limited attack for a specific purpose. Raids are used to threaten or seize a limited objective, they cause movement by the enemy to defend against the raid & they are usually short in duration with a small force. The short duration means they sustain themselves, which means no logistics trail. Thus the cost of executing a raid is very low.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This is the Ukrainian narrative. However we have at least some evidence of Ukrainian reserves being committed to the fight around Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
I regard the Bakhmut battle as an Ukrainian strategy to bleed the Russian army and Wagner, fixing them in place.
Is there any evidence of this? I haven't seen any, and I'm curious. The entire Artemovsk/Bakhmut fight for Russia has been Wagner and Wagner doesn't hold any other sections of the front line. There was some VDV presence on the flanks earlier but once the push got going in earnest, it was all Wagner.
This is the source I am using and yes it's Ukrainian, but he does include Russian source material in his videos.

I don't know this source or how reliable it is, but if offers a possible explanation or Putin's fixation on Crimea; it's personal for Putin.
Thank you for sharing.
This whole suicide mission into the Belgorod Region is pointless in my opinion, and also Russia's response on its own soil is not that impressive.
This shows indeed lack of professionalism from both sides.
No it's not a pointless exercise. It will force Putin to divert forces an material to better protect is common border with Ukraine. That's forces which would be better utilised in defence against the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. I strongly believe that this raid is part of Ukraines battlefield shaping prior to their offensive.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Two Twitter threads about some of the limitations of the F-16, highly relevant for the Ukrainian war. They focus on different things and both are well worth a read. I was somewhat surprised, it seems the F-16 MLU has more limitations than I thought.



Gripen C, although "on paper" seems to be not much more capable than F-16 MLU, have a few tricks up it's sleeve that could have made a difference in some situations (and also handles FOD much better):
I suspect the F-18 would also have been a better choice (from a technical point of view) than the F-16. I have seen some claims that the radars of e.g. the Australian F-18 have a longer range than the F-16 MLU radars, but not sure if it's true or not. For sure the F-18 would have less issues with FOD.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
I concur with @Vivendi and @ngatimozart . The Free Russia Legion's attacks on Belgorod oblast are raids and are not meant to gain territory. They are meant to distract Russia. They will hold territory as long as Russia doesn't respond but will withdraw (have withdrawn?) once Russia starts seriously countering them.

Since Russia doesn't really have a meaningful amount of military reserves (they've all been committed to the front line), the forces Russia use to counter the Free Russia Legion will have to come from somewhere. Probably Donetsk oblast since that's the closest. But every man and vehicle shifted from Donestk to Belgorod is one less soldier and vehicle defending Donetsk. And if Russia shifts the troops back from Belgorod to Donetsk after this, then the Free Russia Legion just attacks again.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Two Twitter threads about some of the limitations of the F-16, highly relevant for the Ukrainian war. They focus on different things and both are well worth a read. I was somewhat surprised, it seems the F-16 MLU has more limitations than I thought.



Gripen C, although "on paper" seems to be not much more capable than F-16 MLU, have a few tricks up it's sleeve that could have made a difference in some situations (and also handles FOD much better):
I suspect the F-18 would also have been a better choice (from a technical point of view) than the F-16. I have seen some claims that the radars of e.g. the Australian F-18 have a longer range than the F-16 MLU radars, but not sure if it's true or not. For sure the F-18 would have less issues with FOD.
Chief problem with Gripen is the number. Unless current operators give Ukraine their air forces, the number which could be given would be very small. I agree it's a better fit for Ukraine's conditions, but there are probably significantly more spare F-16s quickly available & potentially far more.
 
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