The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Dec. 29th-Jan1st

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strikes landing in Odessa. Reportedly a substation was hit in Usatovo.


Ukrainian Buk missile stuck in the ground, Kherson region.


Russian strike hit a medical facility in Kherson.


Battle damage from Russian strikes in Rybakovka, Nikolav region. These were some sort of warehouses.


The West.

Russia hit Ukraine's 8th Special Forces unit base in Khmel'nitskiy area.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strike in Dnepropetrovsk.


Reportedly Russian forces have taken Dorozhnyanka village near Gulyaypole, Zaporozhye area.


The North.

Russian strikes landing in Kiev. One of the targets hit was a hotel. It's possible this was a miss, and a factory across the street was the real target.


NASAMS and S-300 fragments in Kiev after recent Russian strikes.


Oskol Front.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.


Russian T-90M and BTR-80 getting hit. The BTR-80 is destroyed, the T-90M catches fire but we don't see the ending. Reportedly it got evacuated by Russian force after. This is Novoselkovo, Lugansk region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Russian strike on Krasniy Liman, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Ukrainian wounded evacuation in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian Forpost-R UAV being used to coordinate artillery fires in Artemovsk/Bakhmut area.


Ukrainian M777 firing near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Wagner forces operating T-90Ms.


Wagner forces tank fires in Opytnoe, south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian infantry on the outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian strike hit Konstantinovka, reportedly taking out a munition's storage.


DNR 3rd Motor-Rifles doing quadcopter munition drops near Gorlovka.


Russian infantry in Mar'inka.


Russian Ka-52 strike, Ugledar. Target is unclear.


Shelling of Donetsk continues.


Alchevsk, Lugansk region, got hit by a Ukrainian strike.


Some footage from Makeevka where a local college dorm got hit housing many Russian mobilized soldiers. No accurate casualty count is available, but the KIAs are low end 89 (Russian MoD claim) high end being hundreds.


Pervomaysk, Lugansk region, got hit by a Ukrainian strike, reportedly the hospital was hit.


Much, probably most, of Mariupol' still stands in ruins.


Russia.

Air defenses firing over Sevastopol'.


Air defense firing over Belgorod, allegedly successfully.


Russian Kalibr launches, we haven't seen these in a while.


There is unconfirmed information from Voronezh region that Baltimore airbase got hit (a Su-34 rgt is based there).


A Russian cruise missile fell in Volgograd region.


Barriers have also appeared between Russian jets based at Bel'bek airfield. Note they are shorter then the jets, and would do nothing against airburst.


Misc.

Russian Orlan UAV films attempts to down it.


Ukrainian 2S7 detonates while attempting to fire. Cause unclear.


A destroyed ammo truck and two Nona-S, possibly knocked out, Ukrainian.


Knocked out Ukrainian T-64BV, location and context unclear.


A destroyed Krab howitzer being taken away, possibly the same one we saw earlier.


A Ukrainian XA-180 burns, location and context unclear. I can't be certain but I think we've seen this footage before.


A look at a Ukrainian T-64BM that survived a hit due to successful ERA detonation.


Ukrainian air defenses, an AA machinegun and projector. Likely this is meant against UAVs and Shaheds.


Ukrainian forces operating the Caesar howitzer. Reportedly all 16 currently in Ukrainian service require repairs. No word on the one we saw clearly get hit by a Russian loitering munition near Ugledar.


Ukrainian forces operating the French M270 variant, LRU.


Domestically produced Ukrainian artillery shells have shown up on the front line.


Russian T-90M with Nakidka. Note, the first two companies of these deployed with Nakidka, further units did not. It's likely only pre-war deliveries came with that kit.


Russian rare A-545 assault rifle has shown up in the war zone.


Another prisoner exchange took place between Russian and Ukraine with 140 Ukrainian POWs being traded fro 82 Russian ones.


The World.

A Ukrainian S-300 stage falls in Belarus. Belarus claims they shot it down.


Reportedly volunteers have gathered funds to purchase 15 Victor AAA for Ukraine.


Polish Osa SAMs have shown up in Ukraine.


Russian forces training in Belarus, with the new AMN armored cars, and new rifles. Note the mismatched uniforms and body armor. These look like mobilized forces. And just as predicted proper APCs/IFVs are harder to come by.


A batch of 12 Pathera T6 armored cars arrive in Ukraine.


Renault GBS 180 truck in Ukrainian service. The variant is meant for warmer weather, note the cloth cabin.


The LAV Super Bison has allegedly shown up in Ukraine.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
A couple of interesting videos

This is a Russian tank crew whose tank hit amine, and a russian drone then guided the crew back to Russian territory

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/10udk0x
Can you imagine what was going through the minds of the crew? They had no way of knowing that the drone was oen of theirs, bit sides use the same commerical small drones.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/10u3cx6
A T-84 crew giving a review of the T-84 oplot, english subtitles. At one point this tank was ebing looked at by the Bangladesh army, Pakistani military etc. The crew mentions that they cannot get a lot of parts due to loss of Crimea, another highlight of how vital Eastern Ukraine is as an industrial hub and why its not easy for Ukraine to discuss giving up those territories to Russia.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Jan 2nd-4th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Ukrainian Kozak-2 armored car, allegedly carrying an ATGM team, destroyed by loitering munition, Kherson region. Reportedly this is old footage from November.


An abandoned Msta-S, Russian, probably Kherson region. This is likely also old footage from Russia's withdrawal.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

A Russian strike landing in Zaporozhye.


A Russian strike hit near Dnepropetrovsk, reportedly the Sinel'nikovkskiy railroad junction.


A Ukrainian strike hit Vasil'yevka, a dormitory that allegedly was being used by Russian occupation administration. The strike also hit an apartment building next door, killing 5 civilians and wounding 15.


Allegedly a Ukrainian UAV struck Russian military storage in Berdyansk. Russian sources claim the UAV was downed successfully.


Oskol Front.

Russian artillery fires on the Svatovo axis.


LDNR Front.

Russian VDV Nona-S fires near Artemovsk/Bakhmut, more confirmation that VDV is present in the area.


Ukrainian forces operating a captured BTR-82A in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Civilians still living in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russia struck an ice-skating rink in Druzhkovka, allegedly being used as a Ukrainian staging area.


DNR 3rd Motor-Rifles hitting Ukrainian vehicles with artillery, on the Gorlovka axis.


DNR 9th Rgt shows off a quadcopter doing CAS, where Ukrainian forces are on one side of the trenchlines and DNR fighters on the other. This is probably Avdeevka area.


Interesting UAV footage and radio traffic, DNR 9th Rgt, advancing on Avdeevka. They're coordinating infantry movements by radio, using UAV footage and reports from infantry.


Russian loitering munition allegedly taking out a Ukrainian counter-battery radar. I can't really tell what they hit.


DNR 1st Bde using D-20s, likely on the Pervomayskoe axis.


Makeevka, the collapsed dormitory being excavated, where Russian soldiers were hit by a Ukrainian strike.


Russian UAV dropping 82mm mortar shells, south-west of Donetsk.


Allegedly a Ukrainian BMP-2 captured in Pavlovka.


DNR forces using a T-72A with K-1 added. We've only recently seen early T-72 variants show up in the war, likely pulled from reserve stocks.


Russia.

A Russian energy infrastructure object, unspecified, was hit by a Ukrainian UAV in Bryansk region. Blackouts followed.


Russian air defenses firing over Rostov-na-Donu. That's pretty far from the front lines, it's unclear what they're shooting at.


Russian air defenses firing in Crimea.


Russian Iskander launches in Voronezh region.


A Russian military train in Samara carrying some GAZ-66s, a few T-62s, and a lonely 2S5.


Satellite images show continuing repair work on the Crimean bridge nearing completion.


The first group of convicts have completed their 6 months service in Wagner and are now receiving pardons.


Misc.

Another shot of the destroyed Bureviy, a Ukrainian Uragan variant. I believe it's the same one we've seen before.


A Ukrainian military airfield got hit, where some MiG-29s were based. It's unclear if any were damaged. It's also unknown which airfield this is.


A Russian Chechen fighter shows off destroyed vehicles in a hangar. Presumably these are Russian vehicles after a Ukrainian strike but this is unclear.


A Ukrainian M113, captured.


Ukrainian forces hauling away an S-300 TEL with a Z marking. This could be another ex-Ukrainian non-operational S-300 TEL that Russian forces took from Crimea and set up in Kherson as decoys.


Rare footage of a Russian ISDM remote minelayer. Note, it's basically an MLRS with packet reloading. Why this couldn't have been combined with the Tornado-G requirements, and produced as standardized MLRS is unclear.


Another good shot of the BMP-Nona hybrid, Ukrainian.


Another look at Ukraine's 47th Bdes T-55S.


A good look at a Ukrainian improvised loitering munition.


Ukraine's recently formed 67th Mech Bde. Note the Right Sector flag.


A Russian BTR-82 transporting a bunch of mines. It doesn't look safe to me.


NATO/EU.

Reportedly France is planning to supply AMX-10s to Ukraine.


A bomblet from a French BONUS cluster submunition has been found in Ukraine.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Also saw somewhere, but cannot recall where now that there is a lot of tension in Europe over Leupold 2 tanks to the point that there is no certainty that they’ll be sent at all. The article was referencing a Spiegel article, which I can neither access nor understand. If anyone has insight there, I’d appreciate some details.
Minna Ålander has looked into the article you most likely refer to: Minna Ålander on Twitter: "https://t.co/r25numjMDC" / Twitter

Seems there are several inaccuracies in the Spiegel article, and a bit of speculations. Things are moving, albeit a bit slower than one would have hoped.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
A bomblet from a French BONUS cluster submunition has been found in Ukraine.
BONUS (and SMArt) consist of two submunitions and both are permitted under the terms of the CCM A-Guide-to-Cluster-Munitions.pdf (clusterconvention.org)

The BONUS artillery shell contains two top-attack sensor-fuzed munitions with explosively formed penetrator warheads. Once fired, the BONUS releases its 2 IR-guided munitions which start to search for potential targets at 175 meters of altitude within an area of 32,000 square meters while they are going down at 45 m/s. When the BONUS munitions confirms a potential target, it strikes downward with its explosively formed penetrator warhead to hit the target's roof where the armor is weakest. BONUS (deagel.com)
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This first paragraph is taken from a series of conversations that an American volunteer in Ukraine has with an American journo. The volunteer is with the International Legion and is a member of a Recon Team. He has a significant decades of military service prior to this war and has fought in many wars. WordPress.com

It appears that the Russian army are starting to get smarter now. Reports on the ground suggest that they are beginning to perform better on the battlefield in the Donbas region. It is thought that this is due to new commander (s) taking over. However their basic patrol technique requires a lot of work, with some still bunching up and being predictable. They are also not spreading their artillery in confusing staggered fire locations., and are keeping their logistics close by. So when the Ukrainians fix the location of the logistics, artillery gunners see their logistics going boom. One of the Ukrainian recon teams disabled a T-72 with a RPG hit on the drive sprocket, disabling the tank. It was a deliberately aimed shot.

Towards the end of December 2022 some fool of a Russian officer discarded a set of Russian army operational orders without ensuring that they were properly destroyed. Part of the OPORDER contained the artillery fire plan and there was no artillery observer directing the fire. It was just a straight out shoot and hope to hit something. As the Wavell Room says very WW1 or Soviet Red Army WW2; definitely not 21st century techniques. The attack was in the Kherson Oblast.

1675674156378.png
"The salient observation on the fire plan is that it belongs to the early 20th century. There is no direct relation (an artillery officer or party) between the assault unit and the units allocated to provide the offensive support (in Russian terms the rocket and artillery fires). The latter are controlled at divisional level and provide the fires for but not with the assault unit. It is entirely possible for the assault unit not to have visibility of the fire plan other than the timings shown in the orders (which may contribute to fratricidal incidents).
In WWI-style (and in the practice of the Red Army in WW2), a lengthy bombardment is laid on for the assault unit, in this case lasting all day. At the conclusion of the fire plan the unit assaults. It has no further call on artillery or rocket fires.
The fire plan is indiscriminate. As witnessed in many scores of villages across Ukraine, the aim is to level the settlement and force the defenders to leave (because ‘there is nothing left to defend’ as a weary defender of Popasna in the Donbass remarked; this settlement, incidentally, pre-war home to 20,000 residents, has been completely erased from the map and will not be rebuilt)."​

And later the article discusses the assault :
"The assault was not led in by a reconnaissance force. It is uncertain whether there was any reconnaissance at all. As previously described, there was no artillery support after the fire plan lifted. The lack of artillery forward observers; the described inadequacies of tactical communications; and ‘old-fashioned’ fire control practices mean an infantry company cannot conduct dynamic or ‘on call’ offensive support. The Russian Army also lacks necessary ground-to-air communications and tactical air control parties, in Western-NATO nomenclature. There was therefore no support from tactical bombers (the Su-25 Grach ‘Rook’) or attack helicopters (the Ka-52 ‘Alligator’). The lack of ground-to-air communications and poor coordination, in fact, has led to fratricidal downings of attack helicopters There was no engineer support. There was no battlefield ambulance. There was no coordination with flanking units or flanking actions. There was no surprise, deception or use of smoke to cover the assault group.

From abundant YouTube videos of similar actions it may be assumed the BMD-2s lined up behind the three tanks in single file and conducted a frontal assault. The paratroopers would have been riding on top of the vehicles. As the assault group reached the outskirts of the village the tanks probably fired HE-Frag shells at close ranges against possible (or imagined) Ukrainian positions. The BMD-2s would have fanned out in extended line with about 50 meters between vehicles and the paratroopers dismantled and attacked on foot. This drill - ‘the attack from the line of march’ - is the staple Russian Army drill practiced on ranges. The frontage would have been in the order of 300 - 400 meters."​
Apart from the very poor OPSEC the Wavell Room author says that a western soldier would see this as an operational order, but more as a timetable. It does illustrate the current Russian army operational planning and execution of a mission methodology. The American Volunteer has mentioned in the above conversation and in previous conversations about how Russian tanks lead first followed by APCs and infantry with the infantry sometimes dismounted, and a lack of recon or flank protection. He said that the Russian tankers wouldn't be very happy about that.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
At a press conference today, the Norwegian government announced Norway will allocate 15 billion NOK (USD 1.46 billion) to support Ukraine per year for the next five years, so a total of 75 billion NOK (USD 7.3 billion). The plan is that the money will be split 50-50 between military and humanitarian/other aid for 2023, this will be adjusted for the subsequent years according to the needs of Ukraine.

In addition, neighbor countries of Ukraine will be given 5 billion NOK this year due to the high burden of these countries to handle refugees from the war in Ukraine.

The Norwegian PM said during the press conference that this huge, long-term support to Ukraine is also a strong signal to Russia.

Ukraina: Regjeringen vil gi 75 milliarder kroner de neste fem årene - VG
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This first paragraph is taken from a series of conversations that an American volunteer in Ukraine has with an American journo. The volunteer is with the International Legion and is a member of a Recon Team. He has a significant decades of military service prior to this war and has fought in many wars. WordPress.com

It appears that the Russian army are starting to get smarter now. Reports on the ground suggest that they are beginning to perform better on the battlefield in the Donbas region. It is thought that this is due to new commander (s) taking over. However their basic patrol technique requires a lot of work, with some still bunching up and being predictable. They are also not spreading their artillery in confusing staggered fire locations., and are keeping their logistics close by. So when the Ukrainians fix the location of the logistics, artillery gunners see their logistics going boom. One of the Ukrainian recon teams disabled a T-72 with a RPG hit on the drive sprocket, disabling the tank. It was a deliberately aimed shot.
I'm very wary of claims about improvement or worsening of Russian Army performance. The Russian military is very uneven. There are units that perform quite well (810th and 155th Marines for example) and other units that perform very poorly (the "elite" units of West MD for example, or the 90th Tanks). Differences in performance could easily be because they're facing a different unit. There are also still separate entities in this fight. LDNR forces are still de-facto separate structures, there are irregulars formations that consist of everything, from war-hungry adrenalin junky Cossacks, to professional Russian-ex military with significant combat experience. Consequently their performance varies drastically, from outperforming a typical line motor-rifle unit, to being next-to useless in battle, there are still National Guard troops on the front lines, though far less of them now. There's also the mass mobilization, with many of those mobilized personnel now on the front lines. I'm sure their training also varied, creating even more uneven performance. Throw mercenaries like Wagner into the mix, and saying something about Russian tactical performance in general becomes impossible. It's the average temperature of sick people in a hospital. And here we have anecdotal evidence.

In principle there is nothing surprising about some units potentially getting smarter and learning from experience. On the flip side, when I saw footage of DNR Sparta btln entering Volnovakha, they looked like professionals. They kept good dispersion, moved skillfully building to building, had quadcopter support at the platoon level. And this was at the start of the war. Meanwhile the recent Russian offensive in Zaporozhye, the one that stalled after taking a handful of villages, didn't look good at all.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
I'm very wary of claims about improvement or worsening of Russian Army performance. The Russian military is very uneven. There are units that perform quite well (810th and 155th Marines for example) and other units that perform very poorly (the "elite" units of West MD for example, or the 90th Tanks). Differences in performance could easily be because they're facing a different unit. There are also still separate entities in this fight. LDNR forces are still de-facto separate structures, there are irregulars formations that consist of everything, from war-hungry adrenalin junky Cossacks, to professional Russian-ex military with significant combat experience. Consequently their performance varies drastically, from outperforming a typical line motor-rifle unit, to being next-to useless in battle, there are still National Guard troops on the front lines, though far less of them now. There's also the mass mobilization, with many of those mobilized personnel now on the front lines. I'm sure their training also varied, creating even more uneven performance. Throw mercenaries like Wagner into the mix, and saying something about Russian tactical performance in general becomes impossible. It's the average temperature of sick people in a hospital. And here we have anecdotal evidence.

In principle there is nothing surprising about some units potentially getting smarter and learning from experience. On the flip side, when I saw footage of DNR Sparta btln entering Volnovakha, they looked like professionals. They kept good dispersion, moved skillfully building to building, had quadcopter support at the platoon level. And this was at the start of the war. Meanwhile the recent Russian offensive in Zaporozhye, the one that stalled after taking a handful of villages, didn't look good at all.
I would it be fair to suggest a similar assessment of Ukrainian forces though?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I would it be fair to suggest a similar assessment of Ukrainian forces though?
Very much so. We've had Ukrainian POWs stating that they had gotten ~2 weeks of training. We've had Ukrainian forces that got months of training in a NATO country. We've had foreign fighters in Ukraine with years of military experience.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Jan 5th-6th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

A Russian soldier lobbs a rocket-propelled projectile at Ukrainian forces on the Bol'shoy Potemkin island in the Dnepr.


A destroyed Ukrainain Iveco LMV in Kherson region.


Allegedly British special forces in Ukraine, Kherson region. Personally I'm skeptical.


Oskol Front.

Ukraine's 66th Mech Bde riding M113s from Australia in Lugansk region.


Russian BMPT operations on the Svatovo axis.


Kupyansk stands in ruins. There are reports of Ukrainian mobilization efforts in the city.


LDNR Front.

Some footage of Russia's 57th Motor-Rifles in action near Artemovsk/Bakhmut, riding T-80BVs.


Allegedly a Russian jet was downed in the Artemovsk/Bakhmut area, and fell in Russian-controlled territory.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Su-25 downed near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Given the timeline, I suspect only one jet went down, and both sides are claiming the other lost one.


Ukrainian YPR-765 in the Artemovsk/Bakhmut area.


Aerial footage of Artemovsk/Bakhmut and outskirts shows the city being reduced to rubble.


Battle damage in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian strike against a Ukrainian powerplant in Kurakhovo.


DNR 3rd Motor-Rifles firing D-20s on New York (former Novgorodskoe).


Sparta btln continues quadcopter munition drops around Pervomayskoe.


Russian T-72B3mod'16s from the 150th Motor-Rifles in Mar'inka.


Ukrainian forces near Ugledar are using green markings now.


Russia.

Ukrainian Shark UAV crashed in Rostov region.


Russian WIAs from the strike in Makeevka are airlifted to Samara region.


Misc.

A Ukrainian artillery striking hitting a Russian Msta-B howitzer.


A Russian Orlan-10 strike variant crash-landed on Ukrainian positions.


Ukrainian Furiya UAV allegedly downed by artillery using shrapnel airburst.


Russian Su-34 preparing for a mission with Kh-31Ps, anti-radar missiles. SEAD continues to be a concern.


The World.

Reportedly Ukraine has received over 100 Roshel Senator armored cars.


Russia is delivering shiny new BTR-82As to Belarus.


A Russian A-50U has shown up in Belarus.


Russian troops in Belarus as part of the joint forces grouping.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
@Feanor what are the russian sources saying about what happened in Vuldehar yesterday/today?I only got some snippets in more pro Ukr pages today. Apparently a russian force of over 30 armoured vehicles tried attacking and allegedly were beaten back. The footage of the armour destruction has not been released yet, but the footage of Russian infantry losses were some of the most grim I have seen of this conflict so far. Not in terms of number but in terms of brutality. I wont post the video here, but one of the videos was of two russian infantry men stuck in a stream who got quadcopter bombed and sustained back damage and drowned on camera in only like 1-2 feet of water. It was very very morbid.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor what are the russian sources saying about what happened in Vuldehar yesterday/today?I only got some snippets in more pro Ukr pages today. Apparently a russian force of over 30 armoured vehicles tried attacking and allegedly were beaten back. The footage of the armour destruction has not been released yet, but the footage of Russian infantry losses were some of the most grim I have seen of this conflict so far. Not in terms of number but in terms of brutality. I wont post the video here, but one of the videos was of two russian infantry men stuck in a stream who got quadcopter bombed and sustained back damage and drowned on camera in only like 1-2 feet of water. It was very very morbid.
Russia has launched several failed attacks on Ugledar. Russia is simultaneously pushing head on and trying to envelop the town. It's unclear why they're trying to do both. Russian sources aren't spreading too much about it but its clear Russia has taken significant losses.
 

relic88

Member
There is a lot of talk about a loon
Russia has launched several failed attacks on Ugledar. Russia is simultaneously pushing head on and trying to envelop the town. It's unclear why they're trying to do both. Russian sources aren't spreading too much about it but its clear Russia has taken significant losses.
For RU forces, is there a danger of command over reacting to the imminent injection of Western tanks and other coming aid?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There is a lot of talk about a loon

For RU forces, is there a danger of command over reacting to the imminent injection of Western tanks and other coming aid?
What kind of danger? Russia is currently not launching any major offensives, just many minor pushes across multiple areas. Russia is also holding, at least according to what we know, about half of their mobilized personnel in reserve.
 

relic88

Member
What kind of danger? Russia is currently not launching any major offensives, just many minor pushes across multiple areas. Russia is also holding, at least according to what we know, about half of their mobilized personnel in reserve.
I'm sorry I submitted in incomplete, incoherent post somehow. My question really is, does the RU offensive timeline move up with the news of Western tanks on the horizon?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I'm sorry I submitted in incomplete, incoherent post somehow. My question really is, does the RU offensive timeline move up with the news of Western tanks on the horizon?
Reports seem to indicate a Russian offensive will happen soon so likely no change in timing is needed since tanks and training for Ukraine is several months away at least. Long range additional strike kit is also months from now as well.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm sorry I submitted in incomplete, incoherent post somehow. My question really is, does the RU offensive timeline move up with the news of Western tanks on the horizon?
Reports seem to indicate a Russian offensive will happen soon so likely no change in timing is needed since tanks and training for Ukraine is several months away at least. Long range additional strike kit is also months from now as well.
It's honestly not clear. My money is that Russia doesn't have a single large offensive planned at all. If they've learned anything, it's that they can't coordinate those kinds of efforts on that kind of scale. I think Russia will continue inching forward along sections of the front from Kupyansk to Krasniy Liman to Seversk to Artemovsk/Bakhmut, to Mar'inka, to Ugledar. Where they can they will gain ground, where they can't they will stop and try to inflict damage through attrition, a combination of attacks and massive shelling. If the Ukrainian front line begins to collapse due to casualties, faster advances are possible, but I think this is unlikely. Ukraine is continuing significant mobilization efforts and the demographic damage is nowhere near the point where they will have exhausted their manpower.
 
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