The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych · Jan 28, 2023

Dex said:
That article is from July. It's pretty obvious that HIMARS has done a number on Russia. Remember the New Years party where 600 recruits died while celebrating New Years? That was from HIMARS.

Russians have done similar with their artillery and missiles.

There are many factors to consider here. For example, one needs to take into account that the Russians aren’t willing to take out the US satellites coordinating the fire. Once that is done even to some degree, things become much more complicated for a lot of weaponry and greatly limits capabilities. And so on. Things aren’t that simple.

Feanor · Jan 28, 2023

Vivendi said:
No.

That's not Russia's position. "Russia's" (i.e., Putin's) position is "let's pretend to make a referendum, let's pretend to let the locals decide". Russia has absolutely no intention of letting any proper democratic process determine anything: not in Russia, not in Crimea, and not in Kherson.

There is a clear distinction between whether you trust Russian-run referendums or not, and whether one should even get to have one. The position of Ukraine and it's foreign backers is simple. No referendum, no secession, no matter what. If one's position is that the locals should get to decide, should even get to hold a referendum, then your position is directly counter to that of Ukraine. Pretending otherwise is willful ignorance. The position of Russia is that the locals should get to decide. The legitimacy of their referendums is a completely separate discussion. If you want a referendum and just don't trust the ones Russia has conducted, then you're basically taking Russia's position. In Ukraine this is likely to get you prosecuted.

Feanor · Jan 28, 2023

Dex said:
It's clear that Abrams are 100x better than whatever tanks Ukraine had. We saw the results when NATO fought against Iraq in the Gulf War who had a lot of the old tanks that Russia is currently using. The NATO forces destroyed 3,300 Iraqi tanks compared to losing 31 tanks. If you do the math, that's a 106-1 kill ratio right in line with the 100x better number I said.

We saw how much damage Ukraine did with the few HIMARS they had. Ukraine only has 16 HIMARS. The US has 410 of them and Romania has 54. That's 29x more HIMARS.

I don't even need to get into the F16/18/35 which is in the order of magnitudes more effective than Ukraine's non-existent Air Force.

John Fedup said:
Indeed, IIRC, many tanks were taken out by air assets. However, tank on tank encounters saw the Abrams winning virtually every time. This was likely due more to training and tactics but the Abrams was a superior platform. Just my two cents.

Basically none of what Russia is using today was in use by Iraq (T-72Bs/B3s, T-90As/Ms, T-80BVs/BVMs). Ukraine's T-72M1s are closer to what Iraq had. There is a significant difference. That having been said, the more modern Abrams variants are generally superior in tank on tank combat to just about anything Russia currently fields. With older variants it gets somewhat more complex.

vikingatespam · Jan 28, 2023

John Fedup said:
You can only do so much with airpower. Iraq is absolutely not a guide and Russia is orders of magnitude stronger than Iraq. Sooner or later Putin will run out of ass-kissing incompetent generals and will be forced to accept people that are capable despite not liking him. Hopefully the war ends before this happens, a better outcome for both sides.

Surovikin made the sensible decision to evacuate Kherson and he got demoted/cashiered/transferred for it. Not sure Putin can tolerate a competent general any more...

Feanor · Jan 28, 2023

vikingatespam said:
Surovikin made the sensible decision to evacuate Kherson and he got demoted/cashiered/transferred for it. Not sure Putin can tolerate a competent general any more...

That's one interpretation. Another interpretation is that he was demoted due to the failure of his SEAD efforts. Ukrainian air defenses are alive and kicking. A third interpretation is that he wasn't demoted at all but simply the air campaign is taking a back seat to ground operations, so having an air force general in overall command makes less sense. I'm also not sure why everyone thinks so highly of Surovikin specifically. I don't know that there's anything wrong with him as a general, but there was quite a bit of hype over his appointment. It represented a shift in strategy, but beyond that... what reason do you have for thinking he's particularly more competent then Gerasimov?

Ananda · Jan 28, 2023

Dex said:
Remember the New Years party where 600 recruits died while celebrating New Years? That was from HIMARS.

Doesn't mean HIMARS perform significantly better then Ukrainian MLRS existing stocks. That's the original debate from beginning. Other members also already point out that Russian also capable doing similar thing with their own stocks.

Worse Than WWII Soviet Weapons! Ukrainian Soldiers ‘Lambast’ Another European System For Ineffective Performance

Several European countries have been shipping weaponry to Ukraine to support the country’s resistance against Russian invasion. While most of this weaponry has supported Kyiv’s war effort, some have garnered harsh criticism for their poor performance. In particular, the Mod63 120mm mortar...

eurasiantimes.com

This is the article from Turkiye media in December. Basically the performance of Western systems is mix. There's enough debates on whether Soviet barrels (that Ukrainian use on their stocks artillery) perform better under duress then Western barrel.

Point is, Western systems due in some situation perform better then Ukrainian own stocks or ex Soviet ones. However there are others situations where Ukranian own stocks perform better. Soviets (then later on Russian and Ukrainian) design their systems base on Different approach and thinking then Western ones. This is clearly known since cold wars.

This is not making Western systems will be marginally have superior performance even proportional wise, toward Ukranian and Russian systems on much occasion. They're each having their own advantages. Simplicities on maintenance and support due matters.

seaspear · Jan 29, 2023

Feanor said:
That's one interpretation. Another interpretation is that he was demoted due to the failure of his SEAD efforts. Ukrainian air defenses are alive and kicking. A third interpretation is that he wasn't demoted at all but simply the air campaign is taking a back seat to ground operations, so having an air force general in overall command makes less sense. I'm also not sure why everyone thinks so highly of Surovikin specifically. I don't know that there's anything wrong with him as a general, but there was quite a bit of hype over his appointment. It represented a shift in strategy, but beyond that... what reason do you have for thinking he's particularly more competent then Gerasimov?

It might be easy to think that Surovikin would be glad to have passed the poison chalice of responsibility to Gerasimov who has so far distinguished himself with his call for no facial hair for Russian soldiers impressing Kadyrov the head of the Chechen republic and Prigozhin who has his own views on military leadership

KipPotapych · Jan 29, 2023

vikingatespam said:
Surovikin made the sensible decision to evacuate Kherson and he got demoted/cashiered/transferred for it. Not sure Putin can tolerate a competent general any more...

I’d also add to Feanor’s post that they were going to withdraw from Kherson regardless of who was the chief of the “special operation” at the time. It was the obvious and logical (and, perhaps, only) choice. Furthermore, it wasn’t really his call, but the upper chain of command (namely, Shoigu’s with Putin’s approval (?)) and the chickens were probably coming home to roost way before he was appointed to the post.

In his very first interview, about a week or so after his appointment, if I recall correctly, Surovikin was talking about the “difficult decisions” that weren’t ruled out (and I feel like, could be wrong of course, he mentioned that earlier as well, when it was announced that he is to be the new chief):

Situation tense in Ukraine, difficult decisions cant be ruled out: Russias new Ukraine commander

Further actions regarding Kherson is going to depend on the current military and tactical situation, Russian commander Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin said. It is complicated, difficult decisions cannot be ruled out.

www.anews.com.tr

Another thing to consider is that it was plainly obvious that they would have to withdraw from Kherson and his appointment was an attempt to “change the tide”, but he failed to do. Maybe? It took a month to finally announce the withdrawal. Who knows. Holding such a small part of the right bank of the great river was a failed cause after they started losing the rest of the territory they occupied there and I am sure it was clear to everyone in the Russian command (and others) prior to Surovikin stepping up.

Can he be credited with the successful retreat though? Perhaps? I don’t know.

I also still fail to see that he was demoted, as I outlined in one my posts on the previous page (or a page or two (?) prior).

relic88 · Jan 29, 2023

kato said:
Germany announced two BPz recovery vehicles with the 14 Leopard it is donating, as this is basically what a Leopard 2 company (of that size) gets for support in the Bundeswehr. There'll probably be more from others in the user group.

Thanks. I failed to really dig deeper, that is on me.

So looking at this, it seems to me that if all of this heavy gear is deployed timely and used properly that at the very least Russia will not be able to go further than they have. And at the very best UKR could claw some ground back.

KipPotapych · Jan 29, 2023

Ananda said:
Doesn't mean HIMARS perform significantly better then Ukrainian MLRS existing stocks. That's the original debate from beginning. Other members also already point out that Russian also capable doing similar thing with their own stocks.

The whole claim about 600 is questionable to begin with, but that is probably not even important. To take this example and say “look, this shows the HIMARS is far superior”, that argument does not hold much water, in my humble opinion.

I think what many (or so it seems) fail to see/recognize or give sufficient credit to is the fact that the main advantage the Ukrainians have here is the comms, use of American satellites, and the intel provided mainly by the United States. In this regard, Russians have been fighting with one arm tied behind their back since the beginning. Do the Russians have the capabilities to correct this? Yes, they do, but so far everyone has been pretending that these assets aren’t part of the war because they are owned and operated by the Americans. Remove these assets from the equation and things would be completely different. In fact, I personally believe that we wouldn’t even have this discussion (or have a different one) if that were the case because it would be over long time ago.

KipPotapych · Jan 29, 2023

relic88 said:
Thanks. I failed to really dig deeper, that is on me.

So looking at this, it seems to me that if all of this heavy gear is deployed timely and used properly that at the very least Russia will not be able to go further than they have. And at the very best UKR could claw some ground back.

I think this is key. So far it doesn’t look like “timely” is actually going to happen, according to the reports (ranging from mid-spring up to end of this year, with some deliveries being held up to next year). Things, of course might be sped up, if the Ukes really start losing the initiative (or perhaps it would have the opposite effect?).

They have now moved on to F-16’s and long-range missiles as something that should be provided. With the jets, I still fail to see who is going to fly them in the quantities they are asking for and where they are going to operate from. And even if there are answers to that, can they can make much difference without disabling the Russian air defence which currently isn’t within the reach? I guess this is where the LRM’s come in, but I can clearly see how this is a huge step to escalation beyond the point of no return.

Ananda · Jan 29, 2023

KipPotapych said:
Do the Russians have the capabilities to correct this? Yes, they do, but so far everyone has been pretending that these assets aren’t part of the war because they are owned and operated by the Americans.

Exactly, Those Western systems has to operate within overall supporting environment. Especially latest Western systems which heavily network oriented. Part of that network support that Russian knows silencing them will be part of 'red line'. Every side have red line that crossing them increase the scope of war toward next stage.

Some Western media pundits call NATO still support with one hand behind the back, however so does Russia still fight with one hand behind the back. The only parties that already fighting all out is Ukrainian.

Feanor · Jan 29, 2023

KipPotapych said:
I’d also add to Feanor’s post that they were going to withdraw from Kherson regardless of who was the chief of the “special operation” at the time. It was the obvious and logical (and, perhaps, only) choice. Furthermore, it wasn’t really his call, but the upper chain of command (namely, Shoigu’s with Putin’s approval (?)) and the chickens were probably coming home to roost way before he was appointed to the post.

In his very first interview, about a week or so after his appointment, if I recall correctly, Surovikin was talking about the “difficult decisions” that weren’t ruled out (and I feel like, could be wrong of course, he mentioned that earlier as well, when it was announced that he is to be the new chief):

Situation tense in Ukraine, difficult decisions cant be ruled out: Russias new Ukraine commander

Further actions regarding Kherson is going to depend on the current military and tactical situation, Russian commander Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin said. It is complicated, difficult decisions cannot be ruled out.

www.anews.com.tr

Another thing to consider is that it was plainly obvious that they would have to withdraw from Kherson and his appointment was an attempt to “change the tide”, but he failed to do. Maybe? It took a month to finally announce the withdrawal. Who knows. Holding such a small part of the right bank of the great river was a failed cause after they started losing the rest of the territory they occupied there and I am sure it was clear to everyone in the Russian command (and others) prior to Surovikin stepping up.

Can he be credited with the successful retreat though? Perhaps? I don’t know.

I also still fail to see that he was demoted, as I outlined in one my posts on the previous page (or a page or two (?) prior).

As to demotion, there's billet, and there's rank. His rank hasn't changed, but he's not overall in command of the war anymore. Could one consider that a demotion? I think yes. On the other hand, consider what he was put in charge to do. It was a major air war against Ukraine. Has that air war abated? Not really. Has it achieved its strategic purpose? Also no. Ukraine is still in the war, Ukrainian transportation is still functioning, and Ukraine's MIC was never a major factor to begin with. Ukrainian air defenses are not knocked out of the war, Russia doesn't really have a free reign in the skies, though it got some extra breathing space as additional air defenses had to be pulled back to defend cities, and quite a few have been destroyed just not nearly enough. Western replacements are online and are still arriving. Ultimately the effort hasn't been an abject failure. But it hasn't been a success either.

SolarisKenzo · Jan 29, 2023

Ananda said:
Exactly, Those Western systems has to operate within overall supporting environment. Especially latest Western systems which heavily network oriented. Part of that network support that Russian knows silencing them will be part of 'red line'. Every side have red line that crossing them increase the scope of war toward next stage.

Some Western media pundits call NATO still support with one hand behind the back, however so does Russia still fight with one hand behind the back. The only parties that already fighting all out is Ukrainian.

Russia Is fighting with One hand behind the back?
Apart from starting nuclear holocaust, Russia Is doing everything they can.
From strategic bombers to submarine-launched Cruise missiles, they mobilized over a million men ( officialy ).
The Ukraine war Is the biggest military offensive in Europe since ww2...

Feanor · Jan 29, 2023

SolarisKenzo said:
Russia Is fighting with One hand behind the back?
Apart from starting nuclear holocaust, Russia Is doing everything they can.
From strategic bombers to submarine-launched Cruise missiles, they mobilized over a million men ( officialy ).
The Ukraine war Is the biggest military offensive in Europe since ww2...

Russia can't shoot down western ISR aircraft that are supporting Ukraine's war effort. If this war was Russia vs Ukraine, and Ukraine was operating those assets, they would all be targets. As it stands, the west provides Ukraine with unmanned boats, uses a US UAV to guide them on target to attack Russian ships, and Russia can't do anything to disrupt the guidance. You can't win the recce battle if the recce assets are "neutral". Russia had superior ISR to Ukraine at the start of this war, but inferior to NATO. Ukraine got the benefit of NATO assets, with the ability at least in principle to target such Russian assets, while Russia had no ability to target those used by NATO.

KipPotapych · Jan 29, 2023

Feanor said:
As to demotion, there's billet, and there's rank. His rank hasn't changed, but he's not overall in command of the war anymore. Could one consider that a demotion? I think yes.

Could also be the necessary shuffling, whatever the purpose might be, no?

SolarisKenzo said:
they mobilized over a million men ( officialy ).

Where does this info come from? Don’t believe I have seen anything to this effect. Some unsubstantiated reports indicated that there is another round of mobilization of additional half a mil men coming, but even with that the number would still be below a mil, officially?

SolarisKenzo · Jan 29, 2023

KipPotapych said:
Where does this info come from? Don’t believe I have seen anything to this effect. Some unsubstantiated reports indicated that there is another round of mobilization of additional half a mil men coming, but even with that the number would still be below a mil, officially?

You are perfectly correct, I wanted of course to write " over half a million men " ( 318 000 officially in the first round of mobilization + 100 000 annual conscripts + conscripts from LNR and DPR ).
Age starting to kick in...

Larry_L · Jan 29, 2023

Ukraine doesen't have the reach to stop the manufacture of Iranian drones which have caused so much destruction in their country. They also do not have the reach to stop the launch of these drones. They are asking for military action against another country.

Kyiv calls for ‘liquidation’ of Iranian plants building weapons for Russia

Presidential adviser says Tehran gearing up to boost supplies to Moscow, ignoring international sanctions; Mossad chief also warns of increase in arms deliveries to Kremlin

www.timesofisrael.com

It looks like there has been a reply to their request..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619477502388469763

Drones target Iranian weapons factory in central city of Isfahan

Attack appears to fit a pattern of strikes against strategic sites that have been attributed to Israel

www.theguardian.com

Feanor · Jan 29, 2023

Larry_L said:
Ukraine doesen't have the reach to stop the manufacture of Iranian drones which have caused so much destruction in their country. They also do not have the reach to stop the launch of these drones. They are asking for military action against another country.

Kyiv calls for ‘liquidation’ of Iranian plants building weapons for Russia

Presidential adviser says Tehran gearing up to boost supplies to Moscow, ignoring international sanctions; Mossad chief also warns of increase in arms deliveries to Kremlin

www.timesofisrael.com

It looks like there has been a reply to their request..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619477502388469763

Drones target Iranian weapons factory in central city of Isfahan

Attack appears to fit a pattern of strikes against strategic sites that have been attributed to Israel

www.theguardian.com

The Shahed manufacturing facility appears to be intact. Iran also suffered a major earthquake and some sources are conflating damage from the earthquake with damage from the attacks. To me this is a problematic precedent. If it's ok to attack Iranian facilities because they are supporting the Russian war effort, it has to then be ok for Russia to strike similar facilities in NATO countries...

Военный Осведомитель

После вчерашних инцидентов в иранском Исфахане, в Телеграмме начали с поразительной скоростью распространяться мифы о том, что промышленные объекты компании Shahed Aviation Industries были уничтожены, однако это не так. Свежие спутниковые снимки показывают, здания завода не пострадали и...

t.me

EDIT; Some more footage. It's more and more concerning that the line between war and peace is increasingly blurred.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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