The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

Stuff and nonsense. You've posted several links to western articles talking about the Mosin use in general terms. None have specifically addressed its use. This is just propaganda. Not lies exactly, just very misleading. If you look at photos, it's got optics every time. And if you look at photos of LDNR reservists from the Mariupol' assault or from early in the war where they didn't have body armor and were easily distinguishable by their SSh-68 helmets and side pouches, it's always the same 1-2 Mosins at most in a photo, each time with optics, surrounded by other troops with AKs and PKMs. There is one photo of 4 of them (though these 4 had flak jackets), but again all optics, and the photo was labeled as an LDNR sniper section. There is 0 evidence of the Mosin being issued as a primary infantry rifle. All of the evidence and all info from the rebel side points to them being used as sniper rifles. And while we're at it, there is at least one NATO member that at least recently used the Mosin as a sniper rifle.

I don't doubt the rifle in the hands of a trained and experienced soldier is deadly but there seems to be a number of complaints about the quality of training from conscripts even having the best rifle in the world would not make me a sniper
Russian Conscripts Given Guns From 1800s To Fight In Ukraine: Report (ibtimes.com)
Conscripts Sent to Fight by Pro-Russia Donbas Get Little Training, Old Rifles, Poor Supplies - Sources (usnews.com)
Certainly LDNR forces in this article were known to have been seen according to this article with them last year
The Famed Mosin Rifle Haunts the Russian Army | The National Interest

 

[OPSSG]

Kherson Update

1. Russia faces a Western coalition able to provide sufficient resources to take back Kherson in phases. Ukraine will never stop fighting because Putin frames it as a genocidal war. The situation on the right bank and the left bank of the Dnipro river, in Kherson, will probably freeze in the near future. Crossing the river is a challenge for Ukraine, and the crossings would be under Russian artillery fire. But I would not dismiss Ukraine's chances of achieving further gains over the winter in other areas.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591222876447072261

2. Well done, I congratulate the Russian Army on going from the right bank to the left bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson. Likewise, I am moved to witness freedom returning to Kherson, Ukrainians hugging their soldiers, and blue and yellow flags raised.

3. The area Russians lost on the right bank was strategic and important for future offensives.

(a) The retreat proves that the Russians have assessed their abilities to be insufficient in order to advance anywhere in the right bank of the Dnipro river. The Russians seem to have left early X’mas presents for Ukraine — artillery shells found at a Russian ammunition location is especially useful to send as post cards.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591444318979751937

(b) Kherson has been a very difficult area to advance in. The terrain is not optimal and the Russian Army in Kherson had done a good job of digging their fighting positions. The liberation of Kherson is the result of 3 months of attacks on the Russian ground lines of communications (LOC). The Russian army has no business in Ukraine. No number of draftees will solve this problem. In fact, it will only make things worse, because every next batch is less motivated that the previous one.

(c) This LOC corrosion was too much for the Russians, in the end. The fate of the Nova Kakhovka dam has been under debate. Some feared that the Russians would blow it up too, but that is unlikely. Following which, the Ukrainians attacked the Kimburn peninsula via a risky amphibious assault on the left flank — which I am not sure if it is a minor effort or diversionary attack (on the left flank). If they can hold this bridgehead on the Kimburn peninsula, then they can flank the Russian defensive lines.​

 

[vikingatespam]

@Leftyhunter Provide a source for that claim please. You've made it more than once and if you don't provide a source stating that the Model 1892 Mosin- Nagent rifle has gone into general issue with the separatists the Moderators will consider sanctions against you.

Ngatimozart.

I have also noted the presence of the M-N in DPR use. The first time I noted this was from this video:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/up3tv0
While we dont see the tops of these rifles, I can see that at 0:03, the soldier on the right does not appear to have an optic on the rifle. The soldier on the left might have one.

All of the squad appears to be armed with the M-N. Also note the steel pot helmets.

To be fair, this was fairly early on in the war, and these were likely reservists. Nevertheless, to equip soldiers in 2022 with this gear is criminal, outside of having no other choice.

 

[IIO2]

Apparently, the Russians abandoned an S-300 system when they left Kherson. No verified details regarding its specific location, or if it's functional.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591378693917900801

Russian ammunition cache discovered in the Kherson region, as Ukrainian troops sweep the area.

Russian military leave ammunition in Ukraine

Russian military leave ‘crate after crate’ of ammunition in Ukraine.

cdn.jwplayer.com

 

[IIO2]

Delusional Russian rally in Moscow. I don't speak Russian, but my understanding is that they want SARMAT missiles used on Washington, or something to that extent?

 

[Feanor]

I don't doubt the rifle in the hands of a trained and experienced soldier is deadly but there seems to be a number of complaints about the quality of training from conscripts even having the best rifle in the world would not make me a sniper
Russian Conscripts Given Guns From 1800s To Fight In Ukraine: Report (ibtimes.com)
Conscripts Sent to Fight by Pro-Russia Donbas Get Little Training, Old Rifles, Poor Supplies - Sources (usnews.com)
Certainly LDNR forces in this article were known to have been seen according to this article with them last year
The Famed Mosin Rifle Haunts the Russian Army | The National Interest

As I said the last time this came up, it wasn't a great idea. But clearly SVDs were not available, so instead they opted for Mosins. Again it's probably the least problematic piece of that entire mobilization. The lack of training, lack of body armor, lack of comm gear, and lack of leadership, are all much worse.

 

[Larry_L]

An interesting investigation by The Insider, Bellingcat, and Der Spiegel on programing the flights of Russia's missile strikes. This shows, among other things how much intelligence can be achieved through open sources, and how poor highly intelligent people can be at operational security.

Remote killers: Who is guiding missiles towards Ukrainian civilian targets and how?

On the morning of October 10, Vladimir Putin's forces fired another series of guided missiles on Ukrainian residential areas and civilian infrastructure. At least 20 civilians were killed and 108 wounded. The next day, about 30 more missile strikes were launched against Ukrainian cities. The...

theins.ru

 

[Leftyhunter]

It will most likely take Oryx a few weeks to catalog all the equipment that RF forces have abandoned in Ukraine but here's a snippet of some of the equipment. Clearly the Russian MoD wasn't quite truthful when they said all equipment was brought to the East or South bank of the Khearson Oblast. Not all RF personnel crossed the Dnipro has videos are emerging of RF personnel captured in civilian clothing.
Leftyhunter

 

[Leftyhunter]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/yt0hwj This expert really showed his expertise
Leftyhunter

 

[STURM]

This expert really showed his expertise

The reality is that most countries and people [maybe you're an exception] prior to the invasion assumed that the Russian would enter Kiev after a few days or that the Ukrainians would put up fierce but ultimately futile resistance. Very few were aware that the Russian army was unprepared for a high intensity protracted war [for reasons which have been discussed extensively]; that the political leadership was under major illusions and that the Ukrainians had done such a great job preparing themselves.

As such I wouldn't hold it against him that his assessment [like many others] was proven wrong by subsequent events.

 

[Leftyhunter]

The reality is that most countries and people [maybe you're an exception] prior to the invasion assumed that the Russian would enter Kiev after a few days or that the Ukrainians would put up fierce but ultimately futile resistance. Very few were aware that the Russian army was unprepared for a high intensity protracted war [for reasons which have been discussed extensively]; that the political leadership was under major illusions and that the Ukrainians had done such a great job preparing themselves.

As such I wouldn't hold it against him that his assessment [like many others] was proven wrong by subsequent events.

That would definitely argue for avoiding the wisdom of the crowd. Fortunately for the integrity of Ukraine , President Zelensky didn't go along with the in crowd . Maybe we should take expert advice with a handful of salt.
As to to your previous points as Von Clausewitz said way back in the day " war is politics by other means". All wars are political and therefore politics and the leaders of said political entries determine military policy. We can't draw a fine line between the military and political. All conflicts are determined win ,loose or draw by what kind of foreign support they receive. The Russo- Ukranian War is not an exception .
Leftyhunter

 

[STURM]

Maybe we should take expert advice with a handful of salt.

We should but we should also take advise strongly into consideration. Take Iraq and Afghanistan; in both cases various experts/academics/think tanks pointed out the complexities in both countries; the problems and invading/occupying power would face and the need to rebuild both countries but the political leadership was too consumed in hubris and short sightedness.

On the Ukraine I stand by what I said - "The reality is that most countries and people [maybe you're an exception] prior to the invasion assumed that the Russian would enter Kiev after a few days or that the Ukrainians would put up fierce but ultimately futile resistance".

Hindsight is great and it's easy for people now to say the experts got it wrong; they underestimated the Ukrainians; made the Russians to be 10 foot tall, etc.

 

[Leftyhunter]

We should but we should also take advise strongly into consideration. Take Iraq and Afghanistan; in both cases various experts/academics/think tanks pointed out the complexities in both countries; the problems and invading/occupying power would face and the need to rebuild both countries but the political leadership was too consumed in hubris and short sightedness.

On the Ukraine I stand by what I said - "The reality is that most countries and people [maybe you're an exception] prior to the invasion assumed that the Russian would enter Kiev after a few days or that the Ukrainians would put up fierce but ultimately futile resistance".

Hindsight is great and it's easy for people now to say the experts got it wrong; they underestimated the Ukrainians; made the Russians to be 10 foot tall, etc.

Certainly elections have consequences or the alternative would be a military coup or revolution. History has numerous examples of political leaders making poor military decisions. Generals who make predictions on impending wars can be right or wrong.
True from Alexander the Great to the present day no one got Afganistan right other then the Sikhs who managed to grap a chunk of Afghanistan which eventually was inherited after many decades in to modern Pakistan. I was going along with the in crowd and of course I was wrong. The Russian military was certainly much worse then their PR team had the world believe. In hindsight based on just their wars in Chechnya no should of been surprised by the Russian PR was better then their performance as a military force.
Leftyhunter

 

[STURM]

I was going along with the in crowd and of course I was wrong. The Russian military was certainly much worse then their PR team had the world believe.

It wasn't only "their PR team" it was practically everyone else. Even Michael Kofman was surprised; I have no idea what Lester Grau's pre invasion assessment was.

In hindsight based on just their wars in Chechnya

Chechnya was a while ago and was during a period when Russia was in a troubled and chaotic post Cold War state. May if us assumed that because of reforms undertaken in recent years and because the Russians had been quite competent in the Donbas [UASs were effectively deployed as part of strike/recce packages and it got to a point where the Ukrainians would get hit minutes after using a radio] that the Russians were building an army suitable for the types of ops it would be faced with in the Ukraine.

 

[Leftyhunter]

Perhaps Zelensky had a different analytical team that had the inside scoop?
Leftyhunter

 

[STURM]

Perhaps Zelensky had a different analytical team that had the inside scoop?

He and his planners understood the Russians; they understood their own country; they had a military which had learnt the right lessons; they were getting accurate intel from internal and external sources and there was nothing they could have done but to prepare themselves as best they could.

 

[relic88]

Russia seems to have blown crossings over the Dnipro river. Seems to suggest that they don't planning on going back across in the near future.

 

[Leftyhunter]

Russia seems to have blown crossings over the Dnipro river. Seems to suggest that they don't planning on going back across in the near future.

I saw a crossing by small boats of approx 40 Ukranian troops going to the East or left bank of the Dnipro River West of the Nova Khoghva( sp?) Dam on a YT channel called the " Enforcer" that is unabashedly pro Ukranian. I can't seem to locate a clean video . I will look for it. Ukranian officials have spoken on their Telegram channels of liberating the Kinburn Peninsula next .
From what I gather the situation on the East bank of Khearson Oblast is now very much fluid. Supposedly the Russians are actually digging new defensive lines in Crimea so the future of the Russian occupation of East or South Khearson is hard to predict. I am looking for more concrete updates.
Leftyhunter

 

[IIO2]

Russia seems to have blown crossings over the Dnipro river. Seems to suggest that they don't planning on going back across in the near future.

Their logistics are abysmal and it was an enormous front prior to them blowing the bridges and using the Dnieper River as a natural barrier. I think it was the correct decision from their command structure. They've proven wholly incapable of fighting a multi-front war. They are at legitimately at their best when they simply throw their soldiers into the meat grinder and make slow, bloody pushes as they have around Bakhmut, Soledar and Avdiivka. Any time they stretch out their logistics, the Ukrainians simply take advantage of the large front, use flexible, patient defense in depth, allow the Russians to advance, then counter attack and cut those Russian units off. It's extremely costly (in terms of lives) for the Ukrainians as well, but they've built up a sizeable army, and have replacements constantly being trained in places like Britain, who are also sending those replacements back better equipped, while their is evidence that Russian replacements are being sent with lesser equipment, from antiquated small arms, to older, less capable armor. As long as the flow of equipment from the west keeps up, it will continue to keep the death toll high for the Russians, who I believe will focus on trying to consolidate their games in Luhansk and Donetsk.

Ultimately, I think Russia is making the correct decision for them, in realizing that the Kherson front was going to be a slow, expensive disaster if they stayed there.

 

[ngatimozart]

An interesting investigation by The Insider, Bellingcat, and Der Spiegel on programing the flights of Russia's missile strikes. This shows, among other things how much intelligence can be achieved through open sources, and how poor highly intelligent people can be at operational security.

Remote killers: Who is guiding missiles towards Ukrainian civilian targets and how?

On the morning of October 10, Vladimir Putin's forces fired another series of guided missiles on Ukrainian residential areas and civilian infrastructure. At least 20 civilians were killed and 108 wounded. The next day, about 30 more missile strikes were launched against Ukrainian cities. The...

theins.ru

The Bellingham story was posted on here in October.

All conflicts are determined win ,loose or draw by what kind of foreign support they receive. The Russo- Ukranian War is not an exception .
Leftyhunter

That's rubbish. There have been plenty of conflicts where foreign support didn't happen. The British were the victors of the Boer war and didn't require foreign support. The Boers got Mauser rifles from the Germans but that in itself didn't alter the outcome of the war. Then there as the English Civil War, the Norman invasion of England, Cromwell's actions in Ireland, the English defeat of the Spanish Armada, Chinggis Khans wars, and so on.