The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Speaking of 155mm ammo...would it be technically possible to rebore/modify RU/UKR 152mm artillery pieces to 155mm ? This sort of thing has been done in the past.

What are the differences between 152mm and 155mm artillery calibres? Why is 155 perceived to be so much more effective when there's only ...

Answer (1 of 6): What are the differences between 152mm and 155mm artillery calibres? Why is 155 perceived to be so much more effective when there's only 3mm difference in calibre? The difference, is not merely “the 3mm”. But the amount of Research and Development being hurled at the system. Ar...

www.quora.com

This site claims the diameter is essentially the same, leaving the length of the shell as the primary variable. Im not sure if extra shell nose sticking beyond the throat would matter.

Not sure this would be meaningful. The Ukrainian stockpile of WarPac standard artillery is fairly limited, and is steadily shrinking from combat losses and wear and tear. It makes more sense to simply phase it out as it is lost and replace with western systems.

Is UVZ the same company doing the 800 T-62 renovations ?

400 tanks/year is respectable, but like you said, the effect of sanctions may impact that rate.

No. Armored Repair Plans are different from production factories. You're thinking of the 103rd Armored Repair Plant in Chita. Russia has several of those.

We know with the deployment of T-62s the manufacture of new Russian tanks is scant at best. Sourcing high end components due to sanctions is at best time consuming and expensive. Their have been photos taken of Belarus sending their tanks to Russia via railroad. The figure which unfortunately is unverified that I have run across is the Russians can manufacture three tanks a month vs a daily average loss rate per Oryx ( most likely an undercount ) is 5.6 tanks per day.
Leftyhunter

3 tanks a month is a ridiculous figure that is easily overturned by looking at Russian export sales over the past decades. 3 tanks a week is more to the tune of real production, with a tank a day being likely the true limit. Again short of a bottleneck in some components, UVZ is capable of putting out ~350-400 tanks a year.

Instead, the U.S. will simply get 100,000, 155mm artillery shells off of them, and flip 100,000 American made shells to Ukraine. It accomplishes the same end goal, without providing direct support.

This is similar to when Britain went bought 122mm ammunition off Pakistan, for Ukraine. Pakistan didn't want to be involved publically, but they were happy to sell it to the British, so it could end up in Ukrainian howitzers.

The other thing the South Koreans have done to help Ukraine is sign a some enormous arms packages with Poland. Getting those packages signed in a timely fashion, will allow Poland to continue to be aggressive in sending their legacy Soviet made equipment to Ukraine, due to the fact that upgraded, replacement options are on the horizon.

North Korea, Iran, Pakistan: Secret arms suppliers keep war in Ukraine going

Russia and Ukraine are seeking to replenish their stocks by any means, including deals shrouded in secrecy.

www.lemonde.fr

This isn't aid... it's a commercial sale. If the US or someone else is willing to foot the bill, I wouldn't be surprised if the RoK would supply weapons to Ukraine. But this isn't what you were talking about. The US can run around all over the world to purchase arms for Ukraine, and in fact probably is.

 

[Leftyhunter]

You left out the part where the Ukraine had a fairly large standing army; a large pool of trained manpower it could call on and entered the war fully mobilised. Russia in contrast entered the war with a major manpower issue [some BMP had two dismounts]; an army which was told not to expect major resistance and an army ill prepared or equipped for a strategic invasion of this magnitude [a frontage of more than 1,000km and an initial advance on fours axes with insufficient resources and not mutually supportive].



Do we know what the West can really do? For the past few decades it has fought the likes of Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and Serbia. The U.S. on it's own has fought Iran, Panama and Grenada.

True but the RF population is almost three times that of Ukraine. Russia has had mandatory conscription since 1991 it's not Ukraine's fault that the Russians don't properly train and equip their reservists.
The US never was in a conflict with Iran other then a few brief skirmishes at best . All we know about US military capability come from their past war experience depending in how many years one wishes to examine. One could also take military exercises into account. Arguably the last war the US fought a somewhat near peer adversary was China during the Korean War .
Most likely Putin was hoping for a repeat performance of the brief 2014 conflict with Ukraine and grossly overestimated the ability of the Russian military while grossly underestimating the NATO backed reform of AFU since 2014.
Leftyhunter

 

[Leftyhunter]

Not sure this would be meaningful. The Ukrainian stockpile of WarPac standard artillery is fairly limited, and is steadily shrinking from combat losses and wear and tear. It makes more sense to simply phase it out as it is lost and replace with western systems.



No. Armored Repair Plans are different from production factories. You're thinking of the 103rd Armored Repair Plant in Chita. Russia has several of those.



3 tanks a month is a ridiculous figure that is easily overturned by looking at Russian export sales over the past decades. 3 tanks a week is more to the tune of real production, with a tank a day being likely the true limit. Again short of a bottleneck in some components, UVZ is capable of putting out ~350-400 tanks a year.

Of course those figures are pre Western sanctions. If UVZ was doing so well we wouldn't see the Russians deploying old tanks such has T-62s, T-64s and T-72s . The Ukranian T-64s are at least highly upgraded .
Leftyhunter

 

[Leftyhunter]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ysmbjp So far Israel hasn't provided any weapons to Ukraine despite Zelensky constantly asking for what ever military assistance Israel would be willing to provide. Not sure how this Israeli MRAP got to Ukraine possibly by European swallows but newly elected Israeli PM Netanyahu has at least mentioned the possibility of Israel providing military aid to Ukraine.
Leftyhunter

 

[Feanor]

Of course those figures are pre Western sanctions. If UVZ was doing so well we wouldn't see the Russians deploying old tanks such has T-62s, T-64s and T-72s . The Ukranian T-64s are at least highly upgraded .
Leftyhunter

Most of Ukraine's T-64s are T-64BVs, the same type Russia has provided to the LDNR forces. There are no signs of T-64s with Russian regulars yet, though we saw some being pulled out of storage. Ukraine did launch an upgrade program in iirc 2010 for the Bulat program, which wasn't very impressive but it was a start. In '17 Ukraine started integrating thermals and better comms on their regular T-64BVs, producing the T-64BV mod'17. Lastly there was the ambitious T-64BM2 program, to combine the best parts of both, which saw a handful of tanks upgraded. I wouldn't describe any of them as "highly upgraded". Russian T-72B3s have the thermals (actually the entire sights) upgraded, improved ERA, and a new auto-loader to take longer APFSDS rounds. None the less it's considered a "budget" upgrade. Neither the mod '17 nor the Bulat variants are as upgraded as that... I don't think any Ukrainian T-64s can be considered "highly upgraded", except the BM2 program if it gets off the ground. They're mostly Soviet T-64BVs from the late 80's with limited improvements. I guess the word highly is fungible...

 

[Larry_L]

There is a lot of twittering about conscript losses at Makiivka in early November. I almost ignored this, but an article in the Guardian gives it some credibility. Some people see Russia's denial as confirmation. Grab the salt shaker. The last link is Rybar debunking this rumor.

‘We were completely exposed’: Russian conscripts say hundreds killed in attack

Survivor tells of being abandoned to attack near Makiivka, as anger grows in Russia over death toll from war

www.theguardian.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589620441962119168

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589869683368693767

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589956580187189248

https://twitter.com/hashtag/makiivka

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589386502249017345

 

[Leftyhunter]

Most of Ukraine's T-64s are T-64BVs, the same type Russia has provided to the LDNR forces. There are no signs of T-64s with Russian regulars yet, though we saw some being pulled out of storage. Ukraine did launch an upgrade program in iirc 2010 for the Bulat program, which wasn't very impressive but it was a start. In '17 Ukraine started integrating thermals and better comms on their regular T-64BVs, producing the T-64BV mod'17. Lastly there was the ambitious T-64BM2 program, to combine the best parts of both, which saw a handful of tanks upgraded. I wouldn't describe any of them as "highly upgraded". Russian T-72B3s have the thermals (actually the entire sights) upgraded, improved ERA, and a new auto-loader to take longer APFSDS rounds. None the less it's considered a "budget" upgrade. Neither the mod '17 nor the Bulat variants are as upgraded as that... I don't think any Ukrainian T-64s can be considered "highly upgraded", except the BM2 program if it gets off the ground. They're mostly Soviet T-64BVs from the late 80's with limited improvements. I guess the word highly is fungible...

Still a limited upgraded Ukranian T-64 beats a T-62 of which at least 40 per Oryx have been mostly captured vs destroyed by the UA.
Leftyhunter

 

[Feanor]

Still a limited upgraded Ukranian T-64 beats a T-62 of which at least 40 per Oryx have been mostly captured vs destroyed by the UA.
Leftyhunter

No doubt. The current T-62Ms were sent to the front because some category 1 were available, and easy to pull. They seem to have primarily gone to LDNR forces and Cossack irregulars. Let's remember that LDNR reservists were initially mobilized with no body armor or comm gear, and sent to the front. They were provided with body armor mainly through volunteer efforts, and armored vehicles are scarce with them to this day. A T-62M is better then no tank at all. If it gets into a slugfest with a T-64BV, it's in trouble.

 

[Leftyhunter]

No doubt. The current T-62Ms were sent to the front because some category 1 were available, and easy to pull. They seem to have primarily gone to LDNR forces and Cossack irregulars. Let's remember that LDNR reservists were initially mobilized with no body armor or comm gear, and sent to the front. They were provided with body armor mainly through volunteer efforts, and armored vehicles are scarce with them to this day. A T-62M is better then no tank at all. If it gets into a slugfest with a T-64BV, it's in trouble.

Plus the Russian generously issued the highly modern Model 1892 Mosin- Nagent rifle to their newly liberated brothers from the Donbass.
Leftyhunter

 

[Feanor]

Plus the Russian generously issued the highly modern Model 1892 Mosin- Nagent rifle to their newly liberated brothers from the Donbass.
Leftyhunter

They were issued as bolt action sniper rifles and where I saw them they all had optics. They were not issued as primary rifles to infantry squads anywhere. This has been stated at least twice already. This is the least questionable part out of the entire mobilization effort, though western media latched on to it for propaganda reasons. The lack of body armor is far more significant.

 

[STURM]

True but the RF population is almost three times that of Ukraine.

Russia's population can be 1000 times larger than the Ukraine's but it will count for nothing if Russian units enter the war very understrenght and without full mobilisation.

Russia has had mandatory conscription since 1991 it's not Ukraine's fault that the Russians don't properly train and equip their reservists.

Anyone said it was the Ukraine's fault? The issue was about a Russian army which went in the war extremely unprepared.

All we know about US military capability come from their past war experience depending in how many years one wishes to examine.

All we know about actual U.S. combat performance these past few decades cone from invasions or combat operations mounted against Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Panama and Grenada. Let's leave out the Dominican Republic.

Arguably the last war the US fought a somewhat near peer adversary was China during the Korean War.

What about Vietnam? Some 50,000 dead and hundreds if not more aircraft lost in action.

Most likely Putin was hoping for a repeat performance of the brief 2014 conflict with Ukraine and grossly overestimated the ability of the Russian military while grossly underestimating the NATO backed reform of AFU since 2014.
Leftyhunter

We know for a firm fact that Putin was not expecting the Ukrainians to put up such determined resistance.

 

[Leftyhunter]

Russia's population can be 1000 times larger than the Ukraine's but it will count for nothing if Russian units enter the war very understrenght and without full mobilisation.



Anyone said it was the Ukraine's fault? The issue was about a Russian army which went in the war extremely unprepared.



All we know about actual U.S. combat performance these past few decades cone from invasions or combat operations mounted against Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Panama and Grenada. Let's leave out the Dominican Republic.



What about Vietnam? Some 50,000 dead and hundreds if not more aircraft lost in action.



We know for a firm fact that Putin was not expecting the Ukrainians to put up such determined resistance.

Vietnam is interesting because intialy it didn't start out as a conventional war but by 1965 it did evolve into a semi conventional war. The NVA couldn't match the US and it's allies in terms of armor and artilery but had pretty good infantry even if they suffered the bulk of the losses. Yes NVA air defense was pretty good as the Soviet Air Defense Forces spent a lot of time, money and effort to put together at the time the world's densest air defense network at least in terms of SAMs . The North Vietnamese and North Korean Airforce's stationed in North Vietnam where our numbered by a good margin but until 1972 did a reasonably good job of air defense.
Yes the Russian Army went in unprepared but that was out of choice as somehow plenty of money for mega yachets and overseas bank accounts plus mythical weapon systems such has the T-14 Armata tank but not for less glamorous mass training of reservists and asic vehicle maintenance. The overall importance of maintaining a well trained reserve force goes back at least has far as King Fredrick the Great but Putin being a startegic genius apparently knew better.
Leftyhunter

 

[relic88]

Lots of videos of Ukrainians celebrating in Kherson. The city looks surprisingly (to me) intact.

 

[Leftyhunter]

Lots of videos of Ukrainians celebrating in Kherson. The city looks surprisingly (to me) intact.

The Russians did destroy the power stations. Still not much propaganda value in destroying Khearson City has it stands now even Putin's sock puppets are embarrassed.
Leftyhunter

 

[STURM]

Vietnam is interesting because intialy it didn't start out as a conventional war but by 1965 it did evolve into a semi conventional war.

By 1968 when the VC was all but wiped out it became a mostly conventional war. It ended with NVA tanks and APCs crashing through the gates of the Presidential palace in Saigon; the culmination of a multiple Corps level offensive by the NVA.

The North Vietnamese and North Korean Airforce's stationed in North Vietnam where our numbered by a good margin but until 1972 did a reasonably good job of air defense

Given that the U.S. as a superpower with immense resources lost a few hundred aircraft including several shot down by fighters belonging to a war torn improvised 3rd World Country; says a lot.

It's also worth pointing out that the Ukrainian strategy of limited air denial with various types of innovative tactics was also employed by the Serbs in 1999; albeit with less success. Sure NATO air power adapted and was free to.do what it wanted but the Serbian AD network remained a major threat until the last day of the conflict and the bulk of Serbian AD systems survived NATO's DEAD efforts. Iraq too emergency a similar strategy but a far less successful one.

Yes the Russian Army went in unprepared but that was out of choice.

Whether if was by choice or forced upon them is irrelevant as the fact remains that the Russian army was unprepared for a strategic invasion on the 2nd largest country in Europe on a over 1,000km frontage with 4 major axes with insufficient resources and backed by an air force not trained or equipped for a strategic air campaign. This is not to give excuses for the Russians or to downplay the Ukrainian performance but a vital fact to take note of.

 

[Steinmetz]

Looks like the retreat(Phased Withdrawal) was done very orderly and in quick succession. I haven't seen many videos coming in of abandoned equipment like from the Kharkiv debacle. Too early to tell what will happen in the coming winter months. If Ukraine launches an offensive towards Melitopol, that presents its own challenges. Much like the direction towards Kherson, open flat terrain with very little cover. The good news is, is that Kherson is still intact and people can go home. Let's just hope it doesn't get destroyed with artillery battles.

 

[vikingatespam]

I would of thought that the UKR would be interdicting the crossing sites 24/7, but we dont have any evidence of that so far.

 

[Leftyhunter]

By 1968 when the VC was all but wiped out it became a mostly conventional war. It ended with NVA tanks and APCs crashing through the gates of the Presidential palace in Saigon; the culmination of a multiple Corps level offensive by the NVA.



Given that the U.S. as a superpower with immense resources lost a few hundred aircraft including several shot down by fighters belonging to a war torn improvised 3rd World Country; says a lot.

It's also worth pointing out that the Ukrainian strategy of limited air denial with various types of innovative tactics was also employed by the Serbs in 1999; albeit with less success. Sure NATO air power adapted and was free to.do what it wanted but the Serbian AD network remained a major threat until the last day of the conflict and the bulk of Serbian AD systems survived NATO's DEAD efforts. Iraq too emergency a similar strategy but a far less successful one.



Whether if was by choice or forced upon them is irrelevant as the fact remains that the Russian army was unprepared for a strategic invasion on the 2nd largest country in Europe on a over 1,000km frontage with 4 major axes with insufficient resources and backed by an air force not trained or equipped for a strategic air campaign. This is not to give excuses for the Russians or to downplay the Ukrainian performance but a vital fact to take note of.

By the time of the 1975 final offensive all foreign forces had withdrawn from South Vietnam and Congress despite President Ford's pleas cut off financial aid to South Vietnam.
Besides the Soviet Air Defense Personnel and North Korean AF their was also approx 100k PLA troops assigned to North Vietnam from 1965 to 1969 and many where assigned to man anti aircraft guns. North Vietnam had the strongest AD system in the world at time as they had massive foreign assistance . North Vietnam was far from a poor impoverished country in terms of military power during the Vietnam War. I have a whole thread on Historium that covers this subject if interested.
It is relevant if the political leadership of a given country elect to have a war of choice but didn't thing things through.
Leftyhunter

 

[IIO2]

Not sure this would be meaningful. The Ukrainian stockpile of WarPac standard artillery is fairly limited, and is steadily shrinking from combat losses and wear and tear. It makes more sense to simply phase it out as it is lost and replace with western systems.



No. Armored Repair Plans are different from production factories. You're thinking of the 103rd Armored Repair Plant in Chita. Russia has several of those.



3 tanks a month is a ridiculous figure that is easily overturned by looking at Russian export sales over the past decades. 3 tanks a week is more to the tune of real production, with a tank a day being likely the true limit. Again short of a bottleneck in some components, UVZ is capable of putting out ~350-400 tanks a year.



This isn't aid... it's a commercial sale. If the US or someone else is willing to foot the bill, I wouldn't be surprised if the RoK would supply weapons to Ukraine. But this isn't what you were talking about. The US can run around all over the world to purchase arms for Ukraine, and in fact probably is.

There is actually no "proof" of transaction that South Korea is actually going to charge the USA anything, unless, of course you can provide me a receipt. The more likely scenario is that the USA called South Korea up and said "you know those billions of dollars in military support we give you each year by stationing thousands of troops and assets in South Korea to further deter Rocket Man in the north?... How about you send us 100,000 155mm artillery shells, we both call it a purchase and it works for both of us..."

South Korea owes a ton to the West. I'm sure they're not nickel-and-diming their core allies, unless those countries are willing to pay the price for those goods. The South Koreans have a booming economy (top 10 in the world) and can definitely afford to give away the ammunition. Especially, after the sales of weapons that this conflict has brought them.

 

[Leftyhunter]

I would of thought that the UKR would be interdicting the crossing sites 24/7, but we dont have any evidence of that so far.

The Ukranians claim to have bombarded the Russians who fled accross the Dnipro River but it's to early to get an idea how successful they where. The Russians have been withdrawing equipment for weeks well before the Ukranians could move artilery within the 24km or so effective range without using more expensive and hard to get extended range US Excalibur or German SMart ammo. Yes the Ukranians have HIMARS but only so many rockets are available.
Leftyhunter