As noted, the mobilization probably won't aid much in the short term but could make a big difference sometime next year, assuming they spend the time wisely and can overcome equipment challenges. Question is:. What does Ukraine do now? Go hard now in the hopes of deciding it before the reinforcements arrive? Or hope that the west will continue to provide enough support to counter the escalation and play it more cautiously?
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
A number of reports have the RU tossing guys into busses already, even those with no experience. This makes no sense at all. Like you and others point out...
HOW are you going to TRAIN 300,000 soldiers
HOW are you going to EQUIP 300,000 soldiers
HOW are you going to SUPPLY 300,000 soldiers
HOW are you going to COMMAND 300,000 soldier (good luck finding trained command elements for all the new formations...)
Does Putin have a copy of the Necronomicon where he is planning to blood sacrifice all the 300,000 to summon the Elder god Chthulhu ?
#Baffled.
A casual look around YouTube is indeed showing what you describe - many, many men gathered by buses or recruitment centers on their way. It all looks a bit frantic to me.
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
FIRMS: whats going on with the FIRMS data ? It appears like there is very little fire/arty activity in the last week or so. Has it been cloudy over the entire front ?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #4,925
Minor correction. Russia does have the heavy equipment. But most of it is in gigantic quantities, stored in garbage conditions. In other words, categories 3 and 4. With enough armor repairs plants all of it could be brought back on line, down to the last BRDM-1. But realistically on of the bottle-necks is industrial capacity.
Thought I have covered thatwith
but in hindsight not that clear. Apologies for that but you are correct they have the raw assets but all intents most of them are just hulls in need of major or full rebuilds. What i am curious about is would you have any numbers on number of vehicles or respective equipment they are pumping out in a time frame since the start of the conflict. What I am curious about is if we can see any indication that they have managed to either A. ramp production up and keep it up or B. if production is falling. Not holding my breath but such numbers would give an indication of things.
Not sure it will even help next year. Remember summer in Ukraine is only about 7 months away which is bugger all time in grande scheme. They could use that time to train them but how effective it would be with so many personnel and a reduced training cadre remains to be seen but the equipment alone, A force that size you would be expecting give or take 1,500 MBT's in it not counting the thousands of APC's and IFV's all to be fielded in just over half a year. From my understanding Russia could pump out 300+ (will need clarification please, having trouble with sources) tanks a year pre war and thats before sanctions, With sanctions they would need to ramp production up to 900% and not bother about replacing losses on the front .... This force if it was to make a difference wouldn't make a difference until 2024.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #4,928
2024? 1 month for bootcamp (Russian KMB is ~30 days) and then a 3-month training program gives you trained btln units in ~6 months after mobilization is declared. It's currently September of 2022... how do you figure 2024? The whole force doesn't have to and wouldn't arrive on the battlefield all at once. We should expect to see the first units hitting the battlefield in Ukraine inside of 6 months. How much training they will provide, how much equipment and to what standard they will equip them is an open question. But 2024 is oddly far into the future.
That is in relation to the force as a hole. I'm sure you will see an amount of them arriving before then but to make use of 300,000 me being anything more then a simple grunt with a gun they will need equipment that is not presently available and will take time to acquire largely around the heavy vehicles.
I could have made my post a lot clearer but I will just make it now.
300,000 men will need various levels of MBT's, APC's, IFV's, artillery, trucks, AA, etc etc etc none of which at this present time is available in numbers and good working order to outfit this new force. That will take time and my thinking is it will take Russian industry a good 18 months if not more to fully achieve that.
Is it likely that the Russians will use the winter as training time, to rebuild units, with a view to better planned attacks when the weather and ground permits? This almost seems to be the natural plan. At least it's what I'd do but the Russian military has messed a lot up to this point. Equipping them with adequate clothes/boots etc is probably a bigger challenge than finding heavy weapons.
I think that the effects of winter may not have much of an effect on the conflict as being stated. The Russian army carried out their initial invasion during late winter when the ground is frozen. My understanding is that the greatest impediment to movement when the mechanical units are confined to the roads is in late autumn or spring when the ground is wet and easily turned to mud except for well formed roads.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
IM trying to find the report, but it was to the extent that the main factory (UVZ ?) received a contract to demothball/upgrade 150 T-series tanks in the next year. This was before the recent conscription drive. If you are only able/willing to do 150 tanks/year, this doesnt give the appearance of being able to rapidly replace losses.
Barents Observer reports that the Russian Ministry of Energy issues notes to national energy, metal and mineral companies requesting 100% of employees to show up at military recruitment offices. Only top company leaders, their deputies and heads of the production units will be omitted from the requirement. Russian miners and oilmen go to war | The Independent Barents Observer (thebarentsobserver.com)
According to Meduza the plan is to mobilise 1.2 million, only 16,000 of them from Moscow. Russia to conscript 1.2 million people — Meduza
This is very bad news -- for the poor people being conscripted, as well as for Ukraine, and EU/US.
Several German government ministers have indicated that under specific conditions, Germany is ready to take in Russians fleeing the "partial military mobilization". Germany signals willingness to take in Russians fleeing Ukraine war conscription | News | DW | 22.09.2022
If Germany wants to save lives and make a significant contribution to ending this war, I think Germany should make a deal with EU countries having borders with Russia -- that those countries will open the borders for Russians fleeing conscription, and they will be transported to Germany (and possibly other EU countries). The more Russian civilians fleeing this, the better.
Germany should also step up their military support to Ukraine. Depressingly, Scholz is still, for reasons unknown to me, holding back on sending e.g., Leo 2s to Ukraine. Pressure mounts on Germany’s Scholz to send tanks to Ukraine – POLITICO
According to Meduza the plan is to mobilise 1.2 million, only 16,000 of them from Moscow. Russia to conscript 1.2 million people — Meduza
This is very bad news -- for the poor people being conscripted, as well as for Ukraine, and EU/US.
Several German government ministers have indicated that under specific conditions, Germany is ready to take in Russians fleeing the "partial military mobilization". Germany signals willingness to take in Russians fleeing Ukraine war conscription | News | DW | 22.09.2022
If Germany wants to save lives and make a significant contribution to ending this war, I think Germany should make a deal with EU countries having borders with Russia -- that those countries will open the borders for Russians fleeing conscription, and they will be transported to Germany (and possibly other EU countries). The more Russian civilians fleeing this, the better.
Germany should also step up their military support to Ukraine. Depressingly, Scholz is still, for reasons unknown to me, holding back on sending e.g., Leo 2s to Ukraine. Pressure mounts on Germany’s Scholz to send tanks to Ukraine – POLITICO
So taking people from the industries that are still raking in the money for Russia to keep the illegal war going? Besides the fact a force this size will take years to train and properly equip with equipment and vehicles this will cause a good amount of harm to the Russian economy and especially government revenue. Putin is getting more stupid and desperate by the day...
Probably the mobilisation will happen in phases -- so perhaps phase 1 will be around 300,000, followed by phases 2, 3, and 4.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Ukraine’s Draft Dodgers Face Guilt, Shame and Reproach (Published 2022)
Thousands of Ukrainian men are avoiding military service, putting them on risky paths into Europe. Among Ukrainians, it’s stirring a complicated debate.
‘A Lot of Panic’: Russian Men, Fearing Ukraine Draft, Seek Refuge Abroad (Published 2022)
Vladimir V. Putin’s new military call-up has sent young men who don’t want to fight in Ukraine heading to the borders.
When Ukrainian avoiding draft then they are cowards. However when Russian avoiding draft then it is humane thing to do. This is what Western Mainstream media try to put. Thus are this not part of propaganda war ?
This is part of what happened in any military draft all over the world. Some of the population will try to run away. Happen in US during Vietnam drafted, happen in Ukraine, and when it's happening in Russia, why it's a difference ?
This shown media bias in Western-Ukraine vs Russia-China is just part of normalcy. So why saying what West put is more truth in this war ? The truth is both sides now playing fog of war on more intense mode.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Isn't the second New York Times being objective about Russians trying to flee the draft because they don't want to do it, rather than saying they're wise to seek to dodge it?
Presumably there are Russians who will, in due course, wag their fingers at those who try to avoid the draft. But it's a bit difficult to report on that given the draft is only happened. Should the New York Times have anticipated disapproval and said that Russian draft-dodgers would face criticisim?
Staged Annexation Vote Starts in Russian-Occupied Areas of Ukraine
Russian officials opened polling stations in a staged election to annex the territory Moscow controls in Ukraine, a move that Ukrainian and Western officials have derided as a sham by the Kremlin.
www.wsj.com
This is a rather rushed "referendum". Few will doubt that the results were falsified and the outcome was predetermined. The rush seems to have come up as a result of Ukrainian battlefield successes, to bring the territories under the coverage of Russian military doctrines with all the resulting implications reserved, regardless of what anybody outside the Kremlin thinks. The referendum is also likely illegal under international law.
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