The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

GermanHerman · Apr 10, 2022

Georges Malbrunot of Le Figaro cites a french intelligence source claiming that british SAS as well as US Delta Forces are active in ukraine since the first day of the war. Same source claims russia is aware of this.

Feanor · Apr 10, 2022

Jaykaro said:
@Feanor hello, can you please tell why in your bulletins 95% of the channels are strictly pro-Russian telegrams? To read it that way, only Ukrainian equipment is destroyed.
(this is not a complaint).

I think there is a deficit of information from the Russia side that is largely the fault of Russia's own government whose information campaign has been... non-existent? I don't know how else to describe the sad briefings they put out with minimal information and minimal coverage. There are good sources on the Russia side, including people who are moving with rebel units through the war zone, but they are on social media and there is a language barrier. There is also a significant bias, and claims are often made that are not corroborated by the material presented. I try to bridge these two gaps and present these sources 1) in English, making them more accessible, and 2) by filtering to what is either strictly factual or very close to it. When presenting claims I make sure to present them as claims. If I have a personal opinion or stance on the claim being made I include that as well (so if I find a particular claim questionable I will say so and why).

As for destroyed Russian equipment, we have an excellent source for destroyed Russian equipment in Oryx Blog.

Regarding the investigation of the strike on Kramatorsk by serial numbers - schizophrenia, which is spreading in Z groups. ( at first they appealed to what direction the tail part fell from, but from the video from Berdyansk it became clear that the tail part is significantly twisted and it is impossible to determine the direction of impact. Now the serial numbers are taken)

Moreover, these missiles and all the serial numbers were manufactured by the Soviet Union at the Bryansk factory, and if the AFU had them, then Moscow should certainly have Soviet documents that they were transferred to the Ukrainian armament back during the Soviet era. But there is no such information. Strange again, isn't it?

For the direction of strike, I can't speak to it. Like I said, if the location of tail part falling is indicative that suggests a launch direction. If not, then not. I was hoping someone with more knowledge on SRBMs might be on here and can jump in.

For the serial numbers and documents, yes. You would think they do. However it presumes accurate record keeping in the '80s era Soviet Army, and it presumes those records survived intact. Hell, considering the inept nature of Russia's information presentation, I allow for the possibility that Russia has documents proving that the missile in question was in Ukrainian hands at the fall of the Soviet Union and has simply failed to produce them because nobody has put it together. We will have to wait and see. I actually spent some time trying to find other series numbers for Tochka missiles, to see what they looked like for comparison, but wasn't able to. If we can see the series numbers for missiles being used by Ukraine follow one pattern, but say Russian Tochkas fired in Chechnya or Georgia have another, that would at least provide some context.

There was also a launch from Russian-controlled Shakhtarsk. Everything was blamed on the work of the air defense, but again, this is a sofa opinion, where is the official investigation?
There was an explosion in Kramatorsk right after the work of the air defense system, again, strange.

So far I don't have evidence that this launch took place, only uncorroborated claims. Do you happen to have any footage? Launches get video taped pretty frequently, so I'm still hoping it turns up.

The Russian Defense Ministry also points to the southwest direction of the arrival, claiming that the launch came from Ukraine-controlled Dobropillya. However, there are positions of Russian and "separatist" forces in the south-south-west direction (for example, south of Ugledar and near Velyka Novoselka) within the range of the Tochka-U missile (120 km), which means that the launch could well have taken place from there.

I actually haven't reviewed Russian MoD statement, I usually ignore their meager attempts at information coverage this war because they are so unhelpful. I just spent some time poking around with a map tool and you're correct. Those two locations are within the range of a Tochka-U strike, Ugledar being a bit closer, and Velikaya Novoselka being close to the range limit.

I also do not deny that it could have been Ukrainian-controlled forces, because a couple of days earlier, Zelensky had authorized the use of such systems for the territorial defense of Ukraine. Therefore, they could have easily used them on civilians due to inexperience or on other purpose. It should be a normal investigation, not guessing by serial numbers (Yes, and 15 numbers difference is not small, there could be different batches.)

Tail fragment location and serial numbers is about all we have to go on at this time. I'm happy to have someone provide more materials and information. Again I think it's plausible that Russia fired an old Tochka missile in an attempt to hit a piece of railroad infrastructure, missed, and hit a crowd of civilians. I also think it's plausible the launch was not by Russia. Moving a Tochka unit from Belarus all the way to Ugledar without anyone else spotting it, is a bit of a long shot, in my opinion. We've seen very little of this Russian Tochka unit until just now. I'm curious whether it's because this unit is being hidden (but if so, why was it being transported without so much as a tarp through Belarus?) or it's because the unit hasn't really seen much action.

EDIT: Found it. Footage of a launch out of Shahtersk, it was among the materials I hadn't dug through yet. We can see two launches, and it's claimed as an air defense launch. However there's no sign of the missile maneuvering, just a launch upward. Well two launches to be exact...

Южный Плацдарм

#Донбасс #ДНР Работа российской ПВО в районе города Шахтерск @yug_plazdarm

t.me

⚡️Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война)

⚡️Системы ПВО работают по целям над городом Шахтерск, ДНР. PS. Мы нуждаемся в вашей поддержке: Сберкарта: 4276 1609 2548 3621 ⚠️Поддержите нас посильно кто чем может.

t.me

Señor Pomidor · Apr 10, 2022

Very interesting interview in an Spanish newspaper (pretty mainstream, socially conservative and economically liberal bias). They talked with an ex-Spanish sniper that is now fighting in Ukraine: Un francotirador español en Kiev: «Mis opciones de salir vivo de aquí son del 50%» (larazon.es)

Some translated extracts:

In addition to the harshness of a conflict in which "everyone acts in an inhuman way with civilians involved", this elite shooter from Madrid has been surprised by the presence in kyiv of so many private security agencies. “I have not seen armed civilian militias here. What there are here are military companies from many countries, including Ukraine. A commander interviews you, they get to know you, they take pictures of you. Analyze all that you are and where you have been. They are Poles, Swedes, Danes and, above all, Americans. They put together teams of six people and, if you are the missing card in the deck, they hire you. I understand that Zelensky's number four is the one in charge of coordinating operations with the commanders, who are mostly Americans. They are the ones who move the roost ».

«You don't arrive, they give you a weapon and you start shooting. It's false. You have to have contacts with someone from the Army base. If you don't speak English, for example, they take you directly to the border. The Foreign Legion that I have seen is in Yavoriv, on the border with Poland. They do not have weapons, nor do they wear uniforms. If they arrive in military clothing, they provide them with another. What they are doing is learning Ukrainian so they can communicate with the population if they attack that area. They are like a humanitarian aid made up of ex-soldiers from many countries.”

He does not want to say the name of his employer, nor the salary that is paid into a Ukrainian account every fifteen days. He specifies that the figure depends greatly on the qualification and the task, «a paramedic is not paid the same as a sniper. Or to a drone pilot than to a scavenger or an artificer ». Then there are the “pluses”. "In my case, it's $300 per man killed."

The next mission for which they have just hired him will be a “black op”, an operation without a flag that he will carry out together with three colleagues with a US command. If they are caught, no one will take notice. “It is a mission that is done under the radar. Let's just say that, officially, it doesn't exist. I still don't know when it will take place."

He is sure that massacres like Bucha's are the work of Chechen mercenaries: «I have seen the occasional corpse left behind by the troops, but I can assure you that it is not the Russians. They are the Chechens, an elite group working for Moscow. It's scary even to see them physically. Russian soldiers are children, they do not have that evil or that level of violence and cruelty. Most are doing military service. I can tell you that they have knelt in front of me, asking me to please not shoot them, crying. A soldier crying. The Russians have not done that.

QEDdeq · Apr 10, 2022

Statement of the AZOV deputy commander in Mariupol

It looks like they start to realise they have been left to die heroically there. I wouldn't be surprised if Russians would make a cynical offer in exchange for a clean surrender. After all, they would need someone to run Eastern Ukraine should Russia succeed in capturing larger areas than they could manage.

STURM · Apr 10, 2022

Interesting podcast.

-.Mention is made of a video showing Ukranians shooting Russian prisoners [might have been revenge for Bucha]. Al Jazeera reported this a few days ago but I have no idea if other networks did.
- A Brit journalist describes what she saw in Ukranian villages that were recaptured. She spoke to a few villagers; one recounted how she went back to.her home to get some food. She encountered a group of Russians digging a hole in her garden who told her that they been ordered to shoot villagers and to bury them. A Ukrainian attack managed contrive the Russians off in time.
- An ex Brit army tanker describes a tank engagement which was seen by a UAS [the video is in the Telegraph' site]. A lone Ukranian T-64 [tge footage only.shows a lone tank but there could have been other Ukrainians involved] engages a Russian armoured column. The first shot misses and from the explosion we know it was a HE round. Eventually the T-64 is targeted by dismounted Rusian troops whose ATGW misses and the video ends. The speaker describes in details what happens when a sabot penetrates a turret.

Jaykaro · Apr 10, 2022

Feanor said:
For the direction of strike, I can't speak to it. Like I said, if the location of tail part falling is indicative that suggests a launch direction. If not, then not. I was hoping someone with more knowledge on SRBMs might be on here and can jump in.

Point-U in Berdyansk, what I meant about the tail part, if you look closely, you can see its rotation. Sometimes the engine compartment ends up in the impact circle, sometimes it flies off in a completely different direction
Moscow calling
(i hope this link looks like a post, if no sorry)
Also i have found information about tochka-u

https://imgur.com/a/N0cajKN

Note that the engine compartment, separated at an altitude of 2.2 km, fell 400 meters west of the center of the impact area. And the missile was flying from north to south. That is, the bay went to the right in the firing direction. Was this due to accidental factors, or is this deviation characteristic of all missiles? The question hangs in the air.

Tail fragment location and serial numbers is about all we have to go on at this time.

Also with regard to serial numbers and documentation of the USSR, without this information will not be able to determine accurately. The difference in the series is significant, okey when it differs by 1. Here's an example in the city Snejnyi 2014 . Serial number ВГ 910840

Another video at Idlib in 2018

Serial Number ВГ 910865.

In 2017, the following information appeared in the media: "The Russian military handed over 50 Tochka-U ballistic missiles to Syria."
Naturally, the Russian Ministry of Defense denied these deliveries
As we know -no smoke without fire.

So I think without official documentation is impossible to figure out.
Well, or we need information from Shakhtersk, if two rockets launched, it is necessary to find the second

____
EDT: UAV Orlan looks hightech

Feanor · Apr 10, 2022

QEDdeq said:
Statement of the AZOV deputy commander in Mariupol

It looks like they start to realise they have been left to die heroically there. I wouldn't be surprised if Russians would make a cynical offer in exchange for a clean surrender. After all, they would need someone to run Eastern Ukraine should Russia succeed in capturing larger areas than they could manage.

You don't really think these fighters will agree to run Eastern Ukraine for Russia? Or that Russia, after demonizing Azov, would be able to put them in charge? I'm sure there's a deal to be made, but the deal will probably be more of their lives in exchange for surrender. During the '14-'15 campaign rebel forces made a practice of executing captured right wing volunteer fighters from units like Aydar, Azov, Right Sector. I suspect this is still the case.

Feanor · Apr 10, 2022

Update.

Around Kiev.

Pole taping in Borodyanka.

Оперативные сводки

В Бородянке, похоже, целое ОПГ взяли. И тут же вынесли приговор. Единственный закон, действующий в современной Украине - это анархия. @opersvodki

t.me

The North.

Destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV in Chernigov. Note, this is probably old, as Russian forces have withdrawn from the area. It's also possible Russia is continuing air strikes in the area, even after ground forces have withdrawn.

Уголок Ситха

Уничтоженный украинский танк Т-64 в Чернигове. Обращает внимание расположение танка в застройке, где его накрыло артиллерией.

t.me

Another T-64BV destroyed, also allegedly Chernigov area. Timeline and context are unclear.

Colonelcassad

Очередной уничтоженный украинский Т-64 в Чернигове

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Allegedly a Russian SpN raid in Kharkov area captured weapons.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Трофеи спецназа после рейда в Харьковской области ▪️Американский ПТРК Javellin ▪️Панцерфауст 3 с выстрелами ▪️Шведские гранатометы AT-4 ▪️Армейская радиостанция Harris. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Territorial defense fighters in Kharkov learning to use their new rocket launchers.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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