The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Thanks. You know we forget that the Ukrainians know how the Russians operate. They know their strengths and weaknesses because the older Ukrainians were taught and operated the same way in the Soviet forces. The Russians haven't really departed from that operational mind set, whereas the Ukrainians have been trained by NATO and imbued in western military thinking and operational concepts. That makes the Ukrainians very dangerous from a Russian POV. They know what the Russians are going to do even before they've thought about it themselves. They know how the Russians will react in any given tactical situation and plan for it.
"Just when Western leaders were beginning to meet the economic challenge of a rising China, they will be obliged to divert resources to stem a Russian security challenge."
Of course we are seeing intentions to increase defence spending but will that really distract from maintaining security regarding China? Indeed, the poor performance by the Russian army suggests they have no where near the supremacy that most observers accepted. Surely better units exist and are in reserve or maintaining security on various borders but it's now harder to visualise an unstoppable Russian assault through Poland and into Germany?
Does anyone know the Russian orbat in Ukraine? Is there a site which lists the current deployment of Russian brigades and divisions? I'd be interested to see how much of the army has actually been deployed.
@Larso66 Where did you get the quote from? Please post the source because it's a requirement of the rules and protects both you and the Forum from allegations of plagiarism and / or IP theft.
Ngatimozart.
A cut-n-paste from Post 2,469 by TCP - I see what you mean, it took me five minutes to find that again.
Of course we are seeing intentions to increase defence spending but will that really distract from maintaining security regarding China? Indeed, the poor performance by the Russian army suggests they have no where near the supremacy that most observers accepted. Surely better units exist and are in reserve or maintaining security on various borders but it's now harder to visualise an unstoppable Russian assault through Poland and into Germany?
Does anyone know the Russian orbat in Ukraine? Is there a site which lists the current deployment of Russian brigades and divisions? I'd be interested to see how much of the army has actually been deployed.
@Larso66 Where did you get the quote from? Please post the source because it's a requirement of the rules and protects both you and the Forum from allegations of plagiarism and / or IP theft.
Ngatimozart.
A cut-n-paste from Post 2,469 by TCP - I see what you mean, it took me five minutes to find that again.
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Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
In the US, we hear constantly about Russian propaganda and Russian troll farms. That drum is beat constantly. Russian websites have been blocked here like RT and Interfax.ru (but not interfax.ua). I was rather annoyed about a week ago when I wanted to check on a humanitarian corridor and wanted to see what the Russians were saying about it, not that I would believe what they had to say, but the article was blocked. I'm a grownup and can judge for myself and very much resent being treated like a child who can't be trusted to take my grains (or big spoonfuls) of salt. Anything coming out of Russia and anything that could be perceived as even slightly critical of Ukraine (no matter how factual) or questioning Ukrainian claims is automatically dismissed as "Russian propaganda" here.As truth can be one of the first victims of war I have included this article going into some of the history behind unit 54777 and how it shapes or influences history
Inside Russia’s Secret Propaganda Unit
Exclusive: Newly discovered documents reveal the role of a secret Russian intelligence section called Unit 54777 in propaganda and espionage operations.newlinesmag.com
This article by the Rand corporation goes into the psychology of propaganda with people more likely to believe the propaganda if repeated by multiple sources
Russia’s Top Five Persistent Disinformation Narratives - United States Department of State
Russia has long exploited the “Illusion of Truth” effect: When a lie is repeated so often that people begin to believe it. Understanding this effect can help you avoid falling for it.www.state.gov
This is not some invention of Russia though William Randolph Hearst the American publisher and known as the father of yellow journalism did much to push for America's war with Spain (You furnish the pictures and I'll furnish the war" )
Russia's “Firehose of Falsehood” Propaganda Model
Russia's propaganda model is high-volume and multichannel, and it disseminates messages without regard for the truth. It is rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it does not commit to consistency.www.rand.org
We have a free press here, but it is hardly unbiased. Even when no bias is involved, journalists are not as careful as they should be. In the first 24 to 48 hours after a shocking crime inside the country, initial news reports often get the facts wrong simply because journalists don't know all the facts yet and the situation may be confused, yet they feel the need to rush the story. I always reserve judgment during the early days. When it comes to foreign wars, our media can be ... um ... not totally reliable and susceptible to persuasion themselves.
Some of us have heard or read about the Gulf of Tonkin Incident and some of us remember the babies allegedly ripped from their incubators by Iraqi soldiers. Like Kuwait, other foreign belligerents have hired American PR firms to excellent effect. Kuwait had Hill & Knowlton. Croatia and Bosnia-Hecegovina hired Ruder Finn and several more. The KLA (side favored by the US in Kosovo) also hired Ruder Finn and other US PR firms. One of the first things the American State Department did during the Libya conflict was hook up the rebels with a well-connected Washington PR outfit, Harbour Group. Anyone remember the fake story about Gadaffi soldiers being issued Viagra for a rape campaign? That one played large in American media at the time, until finally the CIA had to issue a statement it was false.
Gulf of Tonkin Incdent:
The Truth About Tonkin
What really happened in the Gulf of Tonkin on the night of 4 August 1964? Documents released over the past several years have cleared up the picture.
Canada's CBC version of our "60 Minutes" news program that did an excellent piece on the fake incubator story that fooled the US, for anyone who prefers videos. Some insight into how these PR firms work and how they shape the news and public opinion and have inside tracks to elected government leaders and decision makers (at about the 24 minute mark, there is mention of the forerunner to Harbor Group hired by/for the Libyan rebels):
This piece does a good overview of the incubator hoax if you prefer to read (don't let the name of the publication fool you -- they have some impressive Pulitzer Prizes under their belt and do some excellent reporting and analysis -- you can Google for yourself to find out more):
When contemplating war, beware of babies in incubators
More than 10 years later, I can still recall my brother Sean's face. It was bright red. Furious. Not one given to fits of temper, Sean was in an up
www.csmonitor.com
Harbour Group started out helping the Libyan rebels pro bono, before they got the frozen assets:
The Libyan Rebels Have a Washington Lobbyist
The Harbour Group has taken on the rebel council as a pro bono client
www.theatlantic.com
You can Google up Ruder Finn and their work for Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina, if you like. Here is a 1993 interview of James Harff, President of Ruder-Finn by Jacques Merlino, a French television journalist (some amazing honesty here):
Russian propaganda tends to be clumsy and ham-handed and we rightfully laugh at it. Ours is more carefully crafted and harder to resist. Marketing research tends to be accurate because those paying for it demand that it be --it's serious business and huge sums may be at stake. Marketing techniques developed from this research are then tested and refined. It's both art and science, but our marketing/advertising/PR industry is quite developed and good at what they do. Sometimes it's selling fast food or soft drinks or sports shoes or a shipping service. Sometimes it's politicians. Sometimes it's countries. Sometimes it's wars. They do it all, for a nice price.
Putin should have placed moles in our top marketing/advertising/PR agencies to learn how it's done.
Note: The above is not a comment on Bucha. We still don't know exactly what happened there, but it looks like the Russians summarily executed unarmed civilians.
And the Ukrainians have been supplied with thousands of top-attack anti-tank weapons.
Dead Money
Member
I haven't seen a full orbat, however Jomini of the West produces (near) daily maps of the conflict + analysis, his maps include estimated unit disposition. Wikipedia has the basics on most units I've searched for, though obviously dated and unverified.
https://twitter.com/jominiw
I would assume that at times Russian routes are predictable because there are only so many roads available; making easier for the Ukraniains to plan ambushes.
The only tandem warhead systems there I can think of is TOW2, Korner and Konkurs.
That's what I thought; not just Soviet era designed ones.
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CumbrianRover
New Member
BBC reporting the delivery of Czech heavy armour to Ukraine; however, NATO Sec Gen saying the Ukrainians have a three week window for NATO to deliver heavy weapons as the Czechs have done.
Should that pass muster, those NATO Migs are going to follow.
NATO is going on the offensive, Putin's bluff is being called.
However, are there socio economic issues for this war being brought to an early conclusion?
Supply of wheat and sunflower oil anyone?
Should that pass muster, those NATO Migs are going to follow.
NATO is going on the offensive, Putin's bluff is being called.
However, are there socio economic issues for this war being brought to an early conclusion?
Supply of wheat and sunflower oil anyone?
The question on everyone's mind is hold long can Putin stay in power if the military situation doesn't improve for Russia and sanctions start having a greater effect? Will the military step in or will we see massive crowds in the streets of Moscow? Another question is that if thing drag on; will we see more Russians; who otherwise wouldn't have been very supportive of him; flocking to Putin's side because of what they perceive as a NATO/Western attempt to isolate and weaken Russia?
www.aljazeera.com
“Russians were craving strong leadership … Law and order were the key words,” said Russian political commentator Abbas Gallyamov. “The general mood in the country was patriotic, anti-NATO.”
''According to him, Putin played on these sentiments and presented himself as someone who could put Russian domestic affairs in order and stand up to perceived humiliation by the West.''
“Russians were craving strong leadership … Law and order were the key words,” said Russian political commentator Abbas Gallyamov. “The general mood in the country was patriotic, anti-NATO.”
''The more authoritarian he was becoming, the more Russian people liked it,” Gallyamov said.''
But the expansion of NATO eastwards caused some tensions, expressed by Putin in his famous speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 in which he accused the US of “having overstepped its national borders in every way”. Analysts have pointed to the 2008 war in Georgia, in which Russian troops fought alongside forces of two breakaway regions against the Georgian army, as a demonstration of the Kremlin’s red lines after Tbilisi tried to pursue NATO membership. Even after the conflict, however, positive engagement with the West continued and in 2009, the administration of US President Barack Obama announced a “reset” in relations with Russia.
''According to Mark Galeotti, director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, Russia will also have to scale back its geopolitical reach.''
“Russia is not going to collapse … but in terms of the impact on the Russian state as a powerful state able to sustain foreign military and political adventures, that’s a very different matter,” Galeotti said. “In terms of Russia’s place in the world, it will be hard for the Russians – and certainly while Putin is in power – to not be considered essentially a pariah state.”
''In his view, Putin’s bid to go down in Russian history as a key state builder has failed.''
How will the war in Ukraine affect Putin’s legacy?
Will the invasion of Ukraine prove to be the Russian president’s undoing?
“Russians were craving strong leadership … Law and order were the key words,” said Russian political commentator Abbas Gallyamov. “The general mood in the country was patriotic, anti-NATO.”
''According to him, Putin played on these sentiments and presented himself as someone who could put Russian domestic affairs in order and stand up to perceived humiliation by the West.''
“Russians were craving strong leadership … Law and order were the key words,” said Russian political commentator Abbas Gallyamov. “The general mood in the country was patriotic, anti-NATO.”
''The more authoritarian he was becoming, the more Russian people liked it,” Gallyamov said.''
But the expansion of NATO eastwards caused some tensions, expressed by Putin in his famous speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 in which he accused the US of “having overstepped its national borders in every way”. Analysts have pointed to the 2008 war in Georgia, in which Russian troops fought alongside forces of two breakaway regions against the Georgian army, as a demonstration of the Kremlin’s red lines after Tbilisi tried to pursue NATO membership. Even after the conflict, however, positive engagement with the West continued and in 2009, the administration of US President Barack Obama announced a “reset” in relations with Russia.
''According to Mark Galeotti, director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, Russia will also have to scale back its geopolitical reach.''
“Russia is not going to collapse … but in terms of the impact on the Russian state as a powerful state able to sustain foreign military and political adventures, that’s a very different matter,” Galeotti said. “In terms of Russia’s place in the world, it will be hard for the Russians – and certainly while Putin is in power – to not be considered essentially a pariah state.”
''In his view, Putin’s bid to go down in Russian history as a key state builder has failed.''
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I wonder which street crowd will be larger, family members of fallen soldiers protesting against the war or people who think big bad NATO is screwing them? Probably a function of how long this drags on and the actual KIA/WIA numbers.The question on everyone's mind is hold long can Putin stay in power if the military situation doesn't improve for Russia and sanctions start having a greater effect? Will the military step in or will we see massive crowds in the streets of Moscow? Another question is that if thing drag on; will we see more Russians; who otherwise wouldn't have been very supportive of him; flocking to Putin's side because of what they perceive as a NATO/Western attempt to isolate and weaken Russia?
How will the war in Ukraine affect Putin’s legacy?
Will the invasion of Ukraine prove to be the Russian president’s undoing?
“Russians were craving strong leadership … Law and order were the key words,” said Russian political commentator Abbas Gallyamov. “The general mood in the country was patriotic, anti-NATO.”
''According to him, Putin played on these sentiments and presented himself as someone who could put Russian domestic affairs in order and stand up to perceived humiliation by the West.''
“Russians were craving strong leadership … Law and order were the key words,” said Russian political commentator Abbas Gallyamov. “The general mood in the country was patriotic, anti-NATO.”
''According to him, Putin played on these sentiments and presented himself as someone who could put Russian domestic affairs in order and stand up to perceived humiliation by the West.''
''According to Mark Galeotti, director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, Russia will also have to scale back its geopolitical reach.''
“Russia is not going to collapse … but in terms of the impact on the Russian state as a powerful state able to sustain foreign military and political adventures, that’s a very different matter,” Galeotti said. “In terms of Russia’s place in the world, it will be hard for the Russians – and certainly while Putin is in power – to not be considered essentially a pariah state.”
''In his view, Putin’s bid to go down in Russian history as a key state builder has failed.''
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Of course. But Soviet tanks have horrible post-penetration protection. Situations where 1-2 crewmen would be killed in a western tank, turn into a catastrophic kill of all crewmen and probably anyone close enough nearby, in a Soviet tank.
Largely due to unprotected ammo and charges stored in the turret and hull; as well as a low baseline protection level. The Armata I believe is intended to rectify various shortcomings; for one it has a bustle loader and if I'm not mistaken ammo and charges aren't placed unprotected.
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Forgot the title but I have a book about how during Eisenhower's time the CIA was extremely busy conducting various ops globally. It seems that publications such as Life and Times were used in a major way to spread news in a way intended by the U.S.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Why sad ?
Ukraine: India condemns Bucha killings, backs probe - Times of India
India had earlier abstained from a vote on a resolution in the UN Human Rights Council seeking a commission of inquiry to look into violations committed during Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. China did not condemn the killings even as it described Bucha images as very disturbing.
m.timesofindia.com
Indian media condem the killing, however also stop put the blame on Russia. They emphasises on getting the truth by getting Independent Investigation. And India emphasises on Independent. It is different with Most Western mainstream media that already jumping the wagon on Ukraine accusation as wholle from begining.
That's independent position that India put. A possition that come from guys that sitting in the fence try to see both sides. Something that is not the possition of Both West and Russian mainstream media. Western mainstream media taking position on jumping with Ukraine band wagon from begining. Thus it is not an Independent possition, and already playing on the circle or propaganda and counter propaganda. In that situation, they are not much different in principe as Russian Mainstream media.
That's what I'm saying from begining of this war, and something you seems don't understand. Both have heavy bias. You may call outright lies to Russian maimstream media, but western mainstream media can not also be call as independent reliable sources of Information on this war. Thus for guys that want to see both sides angles just like my self, have to be carefull to see both media. Luckily there are others more independent media that I can look asside from both sides mainstream media.
However fell free to trust western mainstream media on this war. It's your choice.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
If and when these killings are confirmed independently by reliable experts as war crimes, it will be interesting to see how China responds. It is very likely the Chinese are telling the Russians in private, how could you be so stupid? That would be followed by how could you be so stupid to get caught!
On day 42 of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Pentagon assessed that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas, senior defense official says. Pentagon has seen reports that Ukraine has surrendered Mariupol, “but we do not assess that that has happened,” senior defense official says.
One of the reasons the Pentagon announced last night another US$100 million in weapons transfers to Ukraine is because there was an “urgent need” for Javelins in the Donbas and the Ukrainians want to be ready.
Meanwhile, I am still waiting release of latest day 42 deployment maps from the open source community, including by Jomini of the West and Nathan Ruser. Things are going to get even more complicated for Russia.
Please explain a lot more, because I am not buying the glossy Russian brochure for the Armata — I don’t believe they have all the kinks worked out in this new technology.
@Feanor will know more than me on the production status.
The Armata claims for its 2A82-1M 125 mm main gun to be superior to the Rheinmetall L55A1,120 mm gun seem to be incredible (or borderline science fiction). The claims imply a ‘break through’ in materials science that is very unlikely.
The Rheinmetall L55A1’s pressure increase is vital to obtain the performances increases that the the DM73 round will bring (i.e. a 8% performance increase over current DM53/DM63 rounds). Qatar placed an order with the Germans for 62 Leopard 2A7+s and Hungary ordered 44 Leopard 2A7+s — the above is a lot of modern electronics in a latest generation German tank. Not sure how much access Russia has to electronics after all the sanctions and attempts to prevent tech transfers to Russia.
One of the reasons the Pentagon announced last night another US$100 million in weapons transfers to Ukraine is because there was an “urgent need” for Javelins in the Donbas and the Ukrainians want to be ready.
Meanwhile, I am still waiting release of latest day 42 deployment maps from the open source community, including by Jomini of the West and Nathan Ruser. Things are going to get even more complicated for Russia.
Really?
Please explain a lot more, because I am not buying the glossy Russian brochure for the Armata — I don’t believe they have all the kinks worked out in this new technology.
@Feanor will know more than me on the production status.
The Armata claims for its 2A82-1M 125 mm main gun to be superior to the Rheinmetall L55A1,120 mm gun seem to be incredible (or borderline science fiction). The claims imply a ‘break through’ in materials science that is very unlikely.
The Rheinmetall L55A1’s pressure increase is vital to obtain the performances increases that the the DM73 round will bring (i.e. a 8% performance increase over current DM53/DM63 rounds). Qatar placed an order with the Germans for 62 Leopard 2A7+s and Hungary ordered 44 Leopard 2A7+s — the above is a lot of modern electronics in a latest generation German tank. Not sure how much access Russia has to electronics after all the sanctions and attempts to prevent tech transfers to Russia.
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GermanHerman
Active Member
Not to go off topic to much but china has it's own human rights issues which are recognized by western nations or on the radar of the UN for ages.
China, much like Saudi Arabia, is aware how dependant the western nations are on it.
All these moral values that russia violates in Ukraine right now are of no concern to the EU and Nato when SA does the same in Yemen or China in Tibet and its western provinces.
I realy dont see China beeing overly concerned about their Image, I rather think they are analyzing the reaction of the Nato block with taiwan in mind.
I'm just quoting what I've read on it; like everyone else I have no idea how it eventually turns out; thus I can remain skeptical but I won't make any premature declarations. What it's intended to become and what it actually becomes can be profoundly different.
I will say again what I said previously; that it's supposed to have a bustle loader and unlike other designs; ammo and charges are not intended to be stored on turret walls and in the hull to reduce the possibility of a catastrophic explosion the event of a hit penetration. It's also telling that after decades of relying to a large extent on ERA modules Armata is intended to have a mix of ERAs and also composite armour on certain parts.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
What China and SA may (probably) have done occurred in remote areas with limited media coverage and with populations likely unable to put the word out. Ukraine is exactly the opposite which is why China should be pissed. They are going out of their backing Russia IMO and they certainly don’t need the backlash from Russia’s BS.