The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[OPSSG]

Let the Moderators lay the law down on this Russian-Ukrainian war thread on derails. No China discussions or mentions in this thread — start a brand new thread, if you wish to discuss it. The discussion on China is allowed but not in this thread, as it is confusing enough without derails.

Any China mention or discussion in any future post here will result an immediate 2 week ban from the forum. No reply to this is necessary.

 

[CumbrianRover]

Let the Moderators lay the law down on this Russian-Ukrainian war thread on derails. No China discussions or mentions in this thread — start a brand new thread, if you wish to discuss it. The discussion on China is allowed but not in this thread, as it is confusing enough without derails.

Any China mention or discussion in any future post here will result an immediate 2 week ban from the forum. No reply to this is necessary.

It's your call. However, where another country materially supports one of the belligerents is that country also persona non grata in the thread?

I'm not challenging, just asking wrt balance.

 

[OPSSG]

It's your call. However, where another country materially supports one of the belligerents is that country also persona non grata in the thread?

I'm not challenging, just asking wrt balance.

Great, 1st one banned for 2 weeks for replying to a red text warning.

 

[tonyget]

Not sure the authenticity of this audio. But are soldiers allowed leak front-line situation to family members during the war？

 

[Nabludatel]

Not sure the authenticity of this audio. But are soldiers allowed leak front-line situation to family members during the war？

I am not sure about the authenticity of the above video, but I would be very surprised if the Russian soldiers don't have similar conversations with their families . Morale and discipline is probably low, as not profecional soldiers would be not seeing the purpose of this war.

 

[GermanHerman]

I am not sure about the authenticity of the above video, but I would be very surprised if the Russian soldiers don't have similar conversations with their families . Morale and discipline is probably low, as not profecional soldiers would be not seeing the purpose of this war.

I'm still not convinced about the general assumption that morale is bad among russian troops.

The best indicator for actual low morale would be surrenders as we saw during iraqi freedom.

So far I'm unaware of any meaningfull desertion / surrenders of russian troops that would indicate a wide spread and serious problem with moral.

In regards to those phonecalls one thing to keep in mind ist that russia has officialy banned their soldiers from using phones.

This is also one reason why most of the material we see from the russian side comes from the rebels and chechens and not regular russian forces.

So I would take most of these intercepted calls with a grain of salt, especially because they are so easy to fake..

 

[OPSSG]

I'm still not convinced about the general assumption that morale is bad among russian troops.

This is a straw man argument, the new member just needs to be socialised on posting information with links, or qualify his overly broad statements.

The best indicator for actual low morale would be surrenders as we saw during iraqi freedom.

So far I'm unaware of any meaningfull desertion / surrenders of russian troops that would indicate a wide spread and serious problem with moral.

1991 Gulf War I surrenders occurred after many days of bombing that lasted from 17 Jan 1991 to 23 Feb 1991. The US led coalition flew over 100,000 sorties, dropping 88,500 tons of bombs. IMO, Iraqi troops also did not have a morale problem — their morale was high in hopes of surrender.

If you are unaware of things in Ukraine, maybe you might want to stop speculating and look for sources to confirm or deny?

For example:

​

(i) UK intel says the Russian units withdrawing from north Ukraine "likely to require significant re-equipping and refurbishment before being available to redeploy" to eastern Ukraine.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511706423033483274

​

(ii) Pro-Russian observers argue that the retreat from the North is a tactical move. IMO, Russians are regrouping for a major assault in the East — we are waiting for the Russians to attack in the East, in Donbass.​

​

(iii) Ukraine’s Security Service warns Russia is planning a “large-scale” provocation in besieged Mariupol, gathering the bodies of residents killed by Russian troops in a false flag against Ukraine. Russia will try to falsely claim Ukrainians are using civilians as human shields in Mariupol.​

In regards to those phonecalls one thing to keep in mind ist that russia has officialy banned their soldiers from using phones.

And?

This is also one reason why most of the material we see from the russian side comes from the rebels and chechens and not regular russian forces.

So I would take most of these intercepted calls with a grain of salt, especially because they are so easy to fake..

I think, you may want to rethink about trying to improve post quality?

 

[GermanHerman]

The NYT provides some background to the killing of russian POW's, apparently this happened already in march 30th during the russian Retreat:

Ukraine Live Updates: Civilians Flee Eastern Regions as the West Ramps Up Sanctions on Russia

Residents are leaving eastern Ukraine after warnings of an expected escalation of fighting there by Russian troops, as the U.S. and its allies moved to impose new sanctions to punish Moscow.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Nabludatel]

I find this interesting threat although I am amazed if Soviets were thinking only about a nuclear war, that would be no win situation

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511792088274411524

 

[OPSSG]

I will say again what I said previously; that it's supposed to have a bustle loader and unlike other designs; ammo and charges are not intended to be stored on turret walls and in the hull to reduce the possibility of a catastrophic explosion the event of a hit penetration. It's also telling that after decades of relying to a large extent on ERA modules Armata is intended to have a mix of ERAs and also composite armour on certain parts.

1. You have not answered the question. You have deflected the issues raised by referring back to the Russian brochure on supposed Russian tank production capability for quality control not previously seen. By way of general description, a bustle loader like a conveyor belt that can take whatever shell is needed to the feed mechanism.

Pros:

• High storage density
• Can be protected by blowout systems
• Easy ammunition replenishment
• Can be modified as an assistance system

Cons:

• Mechanically complicated
• Large system

The Armata I believe is intended to rectify various shortcomings; for one it has a bustle loader and if I'm not mistaken ammo and charges aren't placed unprotected.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1459183716790538248

2. A bustle loader due to its mechanical complexity needs to be extensively tested, like the system in the K-2 Black Panther; and the Armata needs a level of quality control not often seen in Russia’s tank factories. It’s not impossible, just very difficult to achieve a high MTBF. This is why I think the technology in the Armata needs years to mature, to become more reliable. This is why I asked you to explain.

3. In this post, I have done the courtesy of exposing the engineering limitations faced by the makers of the Armata. Achieving higher MTBF is not magic but will take time to improve quality control such that the MTBF of the bustle loader will not be too low. This is a technology maturity issue that Russian weapons fanboys will never understand.

Of course. But Soviet tanks have horrible post-penetration protection. Situations where 1-2 crewmen would be killed in a western tank, turn into a catastrophic kill of all crewmen and probably anyone close enough nearby, in a Soviet tank.

4. Agreed. Thank you for leading the discussion on post-penetration protection. Soviet era T-72 tanks for example, have two piece rounds that are arrayed in a carousel around the gun — these are inferior to one piece German APFSDS rounds, like the current DM63 round. The DM 63 is a tungsten-based kinetic energy round that features a temperature-independent propulsion system.

​

(a) The T-72 tank commander or the tank’s computer keeps track of what rounds are located at certain points, and the system cycles until that round is put under the loading mechanism. The Soviet era auto loader design is ingenious but it does have engineering trade-offs.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507817508262354954

​

(b) In the war in Ukraine, the limitations of the carousel design, post-penetration (from battle damage), is captured by numerous photos of the turret being blown off.​

5. In other news, Ukrainian and open sources have accused Russia’s 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade of many of the crimes against humanity that took place in Bucha.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511821203304030210

 

[STURM]

You have not answered the question. You have deflected the issues raised by referring back to the Russian brochure on supposed Russian tank production capability for quality control not previously seen.

I have not read or had access to any Russian brochures on Armata. What little I know about it has been picked up over the years from various sources on the internet; including some discussions here on DT in the past.

I wasn't deflecting anything; merely pointing out some of main points the Russians are intending to achieve with the design to - in my opinion - overcome some of the inherent weaknesses in Soviet era designed MBTs.

In this post, I have done the courtesy of exposing the engineering limitations faced

That courtesy is well appreciated. Thank you.

 

[ngatimozart]

I'm still not convinced about the general assumption that morale is bad among russian troops.

The best indicator for actual low morale would be surrenders as we saw during iraqi freedom.

So far I'm unaware of any meaningfull desertion / surrenders of russian troops that would indicate a wide spread and serious problem with moral.

In regards to those phonecalls one thing to keep in mind ist that russia has officialy banned their soldiers from using phones.

This is also one reason why most of the material we see from the russian side comes from the rebels and chechens and not regular russian forces.

So I would take most of these intercepted calls with a grain of salt, especially because they are so easy to fake..

Well disciplined troops will generally have good morale in a combat zone. Sure they will bitch and moan about everything but that's normal. Even when the going gets bad they will still do the job. You know that you have problems when the bitching and moaning stops. We know that the Russian forces have problems with conscripts and in the conscript side life is pretty harsh. First terms are bullied by fourth terms who are the senior conscripts at the end of their time. That's what I understand anyway.

There's many things about military life that you don't appear to understand. Just because certain things are banned doesn't meant that the ban is always adhered to. Certain places in Singapore used to be out of bounds to NZDF personnel because of lewd activities that allegedly occurred within. @OPSSG may be familiar with Bugi Street before the Singaporean government ruined it; ahem I mean cleaned it up. Anyway some establishments within Bugi St were off limits and the worse thing that you could tell a Kiwi (or Aussie) service person is that somewhere is off limits. That's like advertising the place and guaranteed where they will head too. As I am sure certain Aussies such as @spoz and @ASSAIL can testify. Now this is just a jovial example, but it serves its purpose.

The difference with the Russian troops here, is that we are seeing examples of very poor discipline, from looting, to an officer being deliberately run over by a soldier with a grudge, it's soldiers carrying cellphones in combat when they know they shouldn't, or the rape and murder of civilians, the abandonment of vehicles without destroying them enabling the enemy to use them, poor battlefield hygiene with rubbish just turfed into holes or trenches immediately next to the trenches / foxholes they are inhabiting. The list goes on.

You may have your doubts but the basic soldiering evidence speaks for itself. I had a Warrant Officer who served in Vietnam and was in charge of my basic training. He was a NZ Army tankie before he transferred across to the RNZAF. He would've torn a lot of those soldiers new arseholes before he went to breakfast. and then tore them new ones straight after breakfast. He scared the shit out of me with just one look but I had a helluva lot of respect for the man that just grew threw the time I served. He died a couple of years ago of old age but he left behind many, many people who are just in awe of the man and his humility even though he scared us all shitless at some stage.

When the enemy is handing you your arse on a plate and you don't know what's happening, why you are there, and find out that you have been lied to by your chain of command including your National Command Authority, of course your morale is going to drop and you are going to become a tad annoyed. If you want the best out of your troops you tell them what's going on - tell them the truth, the reasons why, what they have to do, how and when by. The mission objectives as well. you will find that if they have that knowledge they will perform better because they know what the plan is, what's at stake, why, and the risks.

 

[Rob c]

Yes, spent many an entertaining and interesting night in Bugi street in the early times. However a watched this video a couple of times recently which has an interview with the ex PM of finland and thought he brings a very well thought out opinion on the war. I was also amused by his explanation of how the Russians have three words for the "Truth" and what they really mean.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Pro-Russian observers argue that the retreat from the North is a tactical move. IMO, Russians are regrouping for a major assault in the East — we are waiting for the Russians to attack in the East, in Donbass.

Many are still commenting and getting tons of visibility on their views, that Ukraine has won. They all fail to realize Russia needs a symbolic victory somewhere before it can think of making a full retreat.

 

[ngatimozart]

Many are still commenting and getting tons of visibility on their views, that Ukraine has won. They all fail to realize Russia needs a symbolic victory somewhere before it can think of making a full retreat.

The Russians need a face saving victory of some sort definitely if Putin is to salve something out of this mess. Whether he gets it or not is another story and it may just turn into a war of attrition with the only winners being the arms manufacturers and Hinenui-te-po, (Hine of the great night) the keeper of the underworld who welcomes the dead.

 

[Rob c]

Many are still commenting and getting tons of visibility on their views, that Ukraine has won. They all fail to realize Russia needs a symbolic victory somewhere before it can think of making a full retreat.

I agree with you on this, Putin cannot back down at this point even if his army gets the crap kicked out of them. The other problems I see is that while the west is supplying a lot of defensive weapons they are not supplying the type of weapons Ukraine needs to push the Russians out of Ukraine and are in effect asking the Ukrainians to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

Another problem is the attitude of the Russian people, I have seen a number of reports of people contacting friends in Russia and finding that they did not believe western news when they heard it as they had been totally indoctrinated to believe that anything that varied from the official government line was fake news. Even my sister who lives in Australia and has Russian friends found this. This means that Putin is likely to retain popular support for this war as he controls the narrative and things like high casualties will simply never published while he is still in command. I would not be surprised if people are not even told of the death of a loved one for a significant period of time.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 3: A Blood feud

Many are still commenting and getting tons of visibility on their views, that Ukraine has won. They all fail to realize Russia needs a symbolic victory somewhere before it can think of making a full retreat.

1. It’s a blood feud, by now. Ukraine is going to bleed Russia for every inch. Ukrainian forces have been “recalibrating since the beginning,” and are continuing to do so in eastern Ukraine, a senior US defense official says.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511666059367043072

2. One of the reasons the Pentagon earlier announced US$100 million in weapons transfers to Ukraine is because there was an “urgent need” for Javelins in the Donbas and the Ukrainians want to be ready. Ukrainian forces “are absolutely adapting and adjusting in real time to Russian efforts now to increase their activities there” in eastern Ukraine, senior US defense official says. In relevant developments:

​

(a) US is expected to help facilitate transfer of tanks from NATO allies to Ukraine, according to senior US officials. The tanks will be Soviet-era T-72 tanks, which Ukrainian military has experience operating and will be delivered “within days, not weeks;” and​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1492897079596929027

(b) the US Senate passed Bill S.3522 reviving the Lend-Lease Program and allowing certain requirements to be waved for President Biden to provide military equipment to Ukraine.​

 

[Boardgamer88]

(b) the US Senate passed Bill S.3522 reviving the Lend-Lease Program and allowing certain requirements to be waved for President Biden to provide Military Equipment to Ukraine.

I actually posted about that but it ended up in the RNZAF thread (in my defence, I'm a kiwi and so am rightly concerned about the NZDF).

Anyway, what can we expect from the US, assuming that the bill passes?

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 3: A Blood feud

Anyway, what can we expect from the US, assuming that the bill passes?

3. I’m Singaporean, so I know as little as the others here when compared to Americans who know their system better. IMO, there are recent developments worth taking note of:

​

(a) The AeroVironment Switchblade 600, that is in the military aid pipeline, will be a game changer, once the Ukrainian Army guys in the US are trained and deploy back home. The 50-pound, tube-launched Switchblade 600 is operated by a touch-screen and can fly 40 km and loiter in the air for 40 minutes, according to the manufacturer.​

​

(b) In over a month,11 major actions took place on the Belarus railway that included sabotage, hacking, & stopping trains. There were dozens smaller ones (e.g. train drivers refused to carry Russian equipment). More than 40 railway workers have been detained. The military are put on duty along the railway lines in Belarus.​

​

(c) Estonia has donated 200illion euros worth weapons to the Ukraine, & these include:​

• Javelin ATGMs
• D-30 howitzers
• anti-tank mines
• recoilless anti-tank guns
• automatic weapons
• ammunition
• disposable grenade launchers
• hand grenades

4. I suspect the American Lend-Lease Program will include 120mm mortars, 0.5 inch machine guns, a ton of different types of optics (for night fighting), laser designators, mini-UAVs, logistics vehicles, protected troop lift vehicles, large recovery vehicles, artillery hunting radar, and so on. On the left, a fully kitted out rifle, rifles on the extreme right not so much — it’s going to be close and dirty infantry battles in this war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510202445930061826

5. Ukraine’s getting from Europe, ex-Soviet artillery like towed D-30s and they need a lot of vehicles, if they are going to have artillery duels with Russian artillery. Their new artillery guns need to shoot and displace. The logistics fleet pushing artillery ammo needs to keep up with the shoot and scoot tactics.

6. The Ukrainian Army needs to kill Russian artillery, if their troops want to attack positions — if you don’t kill the King of Battle, you are always on the run from enemy artillery. Can’t always assume that the Russian Army will continue setting up towed artillery in the broad daylight, to an open field, within range of Ukrainian artillery, while being observed by Ukrainian FOs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511868438326784004

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 3: A Blood feud

7. The issue with lend-lease is actual host nation capability to absorb the weapons transferred. If the Americans are going to hand over weapons, sourced from Poland (as an example), Poland would like 1-1 replacement with excess US stocks.

8. You can’t just transfer M1A2 SEPv3 MBTs to Ukraine because they can’t repair them on their own or recover these Abrams MBTs but Ukraine could easily operate Polish made PT-91s or T-72s. In contrast, Warsaw had ordered 250 M1A2 SEPv3 model Abrams tanks manufactured by US group General Dynamics, and as host nation, can absorb more American MBTs. Wheeled vehicles are easier for the Ukraine Army to use and maintain, which is why UK wants to send Mastiffs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511835135108337668

9. Ukraine needs tires too.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511968199910305796