Some views on the state of the Assad regime and the implications. It does control most of the Syrian population but reigns over a ruined land.In the south region of Daraa, a hotbed of the revolution there is an assassination campaign against persons working in or with it. In the South-east there is still ISIS activity. Turkish backup for rebel forces facilitated the defence of the Idlib region and its invasion created an entity around Afrin with some indications that the Turkey wants to stay longer. There is deep hostility between Erdogan and Assad, with the former denying, like some western states, his right to rule. The fear of a quasi-independent state with a strong Kurdish imprint will have an impact on Erdogan but both have shown little inclination for compromise.
Of great importance is also the fate of the Syrian population in Idlib, Afrin and Turkey itself. We are talking about 6 million people here and what about the rebels? Some were integrated into the 5th corps of the SAA however those were mostly from the center and the south and not influenced to such an degree by Turkey.
Maybe the man most responsible for so much death and destruction will be able to position himself somehow as the only long-term option for stability and peace. The third Turkish invasion might ease the demands by Arab and Western states and provide an external enemy* and a path to diplomatic solution.
A suitable cynical outcome for a civil war with so many cynical interventions.
I will leave it there for a while, thanks, it helped me to think things through.
*Erdogan should know by now that using war cuts both ways in at least two ways, internal and external.
Of great importance is also the fate of the Syrian population in Idlib, Afrin and Turkey itself. We are talking about 6 million people here and what about the rebels? Some were integrated into the 5th corps of the SAA however those were mostly from the center and the south and not influenced to such an degree by Turkey.
Maybe the man most responsible for so much death and destruction will be able to position himself somehow as the only long-term option for stability and peace. The third Turkish invasion might ease the demands by Arab and Western states and provide an external enemy* and a path to diplomatic solution.
A suitable cynical outcome for a civil war with so many cynical interventions.
I will leave it there for a while, thanks, it helped me to think things through.
*Erdogan should know by now that using war cuts both ways in at least two ways, internal and external.
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