In the event of troubles in the Spratlys; China will also have to ensure it has sufficient assets to defend its home waters and backyard against possible moves by the U.S, Japan and South Korea. Despite this however China will still enjoy numerical superiority over what the other claimants can deploy.
Also, unlike in the past, China can now better support its forces in the disputed area, including deploying airpower; thanks to the islands building.
The First, Second and Third Island Chain. China is boxed in by several countries who are either U.S. allies, U.S. friendly or neutral. This plays a large part in determining how the Chinese conduct themselves and influences their threat perceptions and insecurities.
Sturm your 2 summarize conditions..is the challenge that China need to faced. My points all along that the SEA nation facing SCS have not to build numeriority parity with China. They only have to build up enough to take on 1st onslaught frm China in time of trouble. That's mean China southern fleet and Air asset in Hainan or whatever they build up already in the Islands bases.
That's what I see what Vietnam doing right now. What Vietnam build up now..they are not trying to get parity with China..is too far fetched..but they are build up enough capacity to make trouble to China southern fleet, and whatever Air Asset China has in the south. SCS is also important to Japan, ROK and Taiwan..granted in time of trouble North Korea will try to do something to tied up ROK..but at the same time it's tied up China's other two fleet frm effectively supporting Southern Fleet.
Yes China can continue to build up..but China build up will also bring others to build up..China continue to try to settle SCS billaterally, but the action in SCS also made everone else warried that only made them reacted counter reactive to what China wish. That's why seems there are some missconnection between what China want to dipplomatically and economically with what actual action in SCS.
China seems showing two facet, one that what to try find settlement and other which dictating and belligerent to any that are not wanting to accept her demand. Now Phillipines seems try to soften the approach, whille Vietnam show they want to talk with China, but also showing is readiness thus showing they are not some little neighbour China can push around.
I myself see Vietnam way will show more benefit rather than Philipines softening permisive approach that their new President increasingly shown to China.
In the end Vietnam continue prepared defensive approach to what ever holding they still has in SCS, so they are not being taken lightly by China, and again I believe their moved is what other neighbours should follow on conjuction dealling with China.
I deliberately take out others like the US, Australia in India..just to show that by building up considerably without having to match parity with China..it's enough to make China think twice..despite what China act diplomatically..or what Chinese internet warriors boasted.
In the end when China taking hostile action to 'say' one of Vietnam holding in SCS..it will bring others bit later on to the field.. Caused eventough too much in stakes to let China do whatever she wants in SCS, it will be some delay on that. However if the neighbours in SCS shown enough capabilities to hold off China initial onslaught..then the next onslaught will be more difficult for China to do without bring others to the field.
That's why I still say it is matter to shown some preparedness against China in deffensive posture..caused if you made too easy for China, then it will end to soon before others can reacted.