South China Sea thoughts?

[koxinga]

The article has one major point which is worth considering.

Other than being fellow communists, Vietnam has shown a uniformed, consistent position and track record when it comes to defending their national sovereignty. They have absolutely no qualms to take on bigger powers (France, US, even China, all three are nuclear powers). They have also shown a willingness to escalate, and take casulties even if the results was a draw or a loss (e.g 1988 Johnson South Reef skirmish), UN/UNCLOS be dammed.

The Philippines, on the other hand, has no such record and mostly neglected external defence, relegating that to the US until their departure. The internal politics also means that such position can shift (e.g the previous President, Duterte for example emphasised China's military/nuclear capabilites and consider it better to take the appeasement route) . Even yesterday, Marcos lost his VP, Sara Durterte, who is the daugther of the former president.

That they proudly parade their MDT with the US and try to internationalize the conflict plays into the Chinese mind / thinking that this country is weak and depends on external help or international organisations.

This is the difference; China sees it from a predator / prey frame, the Philippines sees it from a right/wrong frame.

 

[Ananda]

Sara Duterte resignation from cabinet perhaps have influence to Chinese on keep pushing Marcos Jr. Perhaps it can be right gamble or can be something that bring reverse outcome from Pinoy public support perspective.

Either way the perception (from China) that Philippines going alone without support from others in ASEAN (on this recent SCS move, especially political move on "bragging" MDT on SCS), could also explain why China increasingly singling out Pinoy on recent SCS spats. Looking how most of others ASEAN capitals basically silences on this one, can give perception to China they are doing right gamble.

Add:

Exclusive: Photos show CCG boarding, inspecting, restricting Philippine vessels intruding into Ren’ai Jiao - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Shown what China perspective, and see the language. Deter Philippines to come and supply the ilegal ship that they put in China territory.

Why they are not detering Vietnam building artificial land mass in Spartly ? Why they're not detering Indonesia on drilling and exploit gas in North Natuna Sea ? Why they let Malaysia strengthen their outpost in Malaysian part of reefs in Spartly chains?

So clearly China in SCS asside claiming all nine dash line area, also doing cherry picking on whose they are going to confront at one time. Their CG harassing Indonesian drilling platforms, Harassing Malaysian out posts, but not so far at the extense what they're doing to Philippines. Which back to external factor in here asside internal Philippines politics. Clearly China want to influence Pinoy Internal politics. However personally I just feel something else asside that. Philippines waiving MDT factor seems part of that.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I don't understand why the Philippines carry out these replenishment/logistic operations with only such small boats. They now have enough frigates and corvettes to support such important missions.
US renews warning after officials say Chinese forces seized 2 boats in Philippines (youtube.com)

And closer to the shore/post, they can use some of those Taiwanese Multi-Purpose Assault/Attack Crafts which are perfect for defence against bullying chinese coast guards.

Update: now also some large chinese navy vessels are spotted in the neighbourhood.
AFP confirms 4 Chinese warships monitored off Balabac, Palawan (youtube.com)




Here some other news.
PT PAL has offered a variant of its landing platform dock (LPD)-derived hospital ship in response to a request for information (RFI) from the Philippine Navy. If ordered, then it will be PT PAL's (and Indonedia's) 5th naval ship exported to the Philippines.

PT PAL positions hospital ship for Philippine Navy's potential requirement

PT PAL has offered a variant of its landing platform dock (LPD)-derived hospital ship in response to a request for information (RFI) from the Philippine Navy.

www.janes.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

And now the news appears that Vietnam says it is ready to hold discussions with the Philippines regarding Manila's claims to an extended continental shelf in the South China Sea.

Vietnam open to talks with Philippines over claims in South China Sea (youtube.com)

 

[swerve]

Shown what China perspective, and see the language. Deter Philippines to come and supply the illegal ship that they put in China territory.

Illegal & in Chinese territory according to China, but only because China's criteria for what's Chinese territory in the South China Sea are contrary to UNCLOS - although China is a party to UNCLOS.

China also says that a Japanese claim to an islet or rock south of Japan, & the waters around that islet, is illegal because it doesn't meet the UNCLOS criteria for an island - but it simultaneously claims numerous rocks, shoals & reefs in the SCS as Chinese territory, with attached waters, which fail to meet the UNCLOS criteria in exactly the ways in which it says that Japanese-claimed islet or rock fails.

 

[Ananda]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-did-not-consider-invoking-us-pact-over-south-china-sea-clash-2024-06-21/

Philippines now says they will not bring MDT in SCS skirmish. Seems there're some debates internally within Philippines political establishment. As before on Pinoy media some pundits and politicians ask Marcos administration to invoke this.

High noon at Second Thomas Shoal | The Strategist

China has identified the beleaguered garrison at Second Thomas Shoal as a weak link among the South China Sea features physically occupied by the Philippines and, by extension, the US-Philippines alliance. While Manila has held ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Australian ASPI put article on this, while I'm not agree with all, there's one of the points that I agree on:

different arms of the Philippines government issue multiple, overlapping statements on the South China Sea, suggesting there is a coordination problem.

After I also looking on multiple responses in Pinoy media, and then this latest statement from Marcos people, seems for me the Philippines not completely ready on their next move. Considering how China is not first time singling out Philippines, especially after Marcos Jr taking over, they should preparing more on reaction move after the skirmish that bound to happen anyway.

Vietnam put offer to settle with Philippines on their claim borders in SCS. This is what Indonesia and Vietnam done with their claims borders. China will not like it, as if all ASEAN already settle bilaterally with each other, then it is more likely they're going to face China (at least diplomatically) as a Group. China want to handle the deal bilaterally with each of the neighbors, and not in one Group.

When the neighbors still have dispute with each other's, then it is less likely they move as a group, despites each of them knows they're facing Big Guy in neighborhood. Working as a group will force the Big Guy more calculations on how to deal. However working as a group also bring more cohesive results if within the group it self, they already have more solid possition. Including not bringing others into equations.

This is also perhaps why other ASEAN (asside Pinoy still have border dispute with neighbors), choose to stay in the line during Philippines and Chinese skirmish. They must also ready as a group to build common ground. When some in Pinoy's political establishment waving around MDT publicly, don't think bode well with others in ASEAN that (most of them) not want to bring/involve outsiders in SCS yet, especially US.

Add:
Marcos basically say similar thing:

Philippines not in business of instigating wars, says President Marcos

MANILA: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Sunday (Jun 23) his country is not in the business of instigating wars and will always aim to settle disputes peacefully, amid escalating maritime confrontations with China. "In defending the nation, we stay true to our Filipino nature...

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[koxinga]

The MDT that PH has signed is a sword that has to be used lightly.. the local politicians that demand Marcos invoke MDT don't realise that by doing so, it reconfirms CN's suspicion that PH is just US puppet

MDT should be seen as a last resort, a backstop against an unprovoked attack. This is probably one key reason why they are hesitant on pulling the MDT lever too readily.

PH needs to demonstrate and be seen as having the ability to manage the situation (e.g Chinese provocations). This sends signal to both CN and US that they have their own agency and forces both to reconsider how they want to move forward.