They would have to work with South Korea then, not Turkey. Outside steel and FCS there isn't really that much in the Altay that isn't sourced from Korean contractors (and most of the delays seem to stem from Korean companies having to develop alternatives to the German sub-components within their products).
Russia - General Discussion.
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Ananda
The Bunker Group
That's why Turkiye wants to increase co-op with Ukrainian MIC.
Turkish-Ukrainian Defense Cooperation: Drones, Engines, and More - Politics Today
Kizilelma is the latest product that benefits from the Turkish-Ukrainian defense cooperation, which has expanded over the past 5 years.
politicstoday.org
This article shown Ukrainian also trying to be the engine and propulsion provider for Turkey defense projects. In paper it is going to benefit both as Ukrainian need capital and projects, while Turkiye need expertise and experience. Whether Ukrainian can still provide engine as good as South Korean, well remain to be seen. At least that's the traction goes so far.
Well then, isn't it full circle then? The K2 MBT was using German components in the first place, from the powerpack to the transmission, before replacing it with domestic equivalents and the Turks are going through that same journey.
Terran
Well-Known Member
Tank programs in Europe at my last check
K2PL With the Poles working with the Koreans to build a manufacturing plant for K2 in Poland for both domestic and export it seems like that will be the best bet.
The Franco Germanic MGCS won’t be available for atleast another decade. It’s a Frankenstein’s monster at this point. The hull of a German leopard 2, the turret of a French Leclerc the gun of another French Leclerc. Optics and systems pulled from all other the place. The 140mm is experimental.
Rhinemetall Kf51 Panther will require more work to complete. At this point it requires a new hull and the 130mm ammunition supply isn’t in production. It’s probably also a decade away.
Challanger 3 lines are not active in the UK and as a overhaul it’s not an export option. Later decades it will be available
Leopard 2 is also primarily overhauling older tanks but with the German military readiness rates and decades of peace Dividend, big question on if they could meet market demand. Italy is said to be working to acquire a number in supplement to the C1.
C1 Areste line long closed Italy did not modernize as they should have. Now rushing to overhaul.
Leclerc line is closed. Overhauling MBT to Scorpion.
Abrams yes the American Abrams. Is getting around european nations as backfill. A1 versions and A2 versions are being delivered and developed. However No new Abrams hull has come off the line in decades. These are all refits and overhauls most of the back fill is coming from US Army prepositioned storage in Europe with Poland having a large standing order being rebuilt in the US
Altay is an option if they feel they could justify the expense and option to get into licensing. however it’s long delayed and that delay isn’t just the Koreans it’s the Turks trying to find the never ending engine drama. German, Ukrainian now Korean… I am sure they will claim Turkish in a few years.
Frankly right now more demand than supply. Poland was already pushing an ambitious Tank modernization program that called for the largest tank army in Europe based on K2 and Abrams.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine.
With the pax Europe basically over the sudden restart of war programs it questionable whether even preserved Soviet based MBT production would be viable. I mean if the 125mm is going to Ukraine and having seen many of the latest versions of those vehicles base models blown apart… it seems like resources on procurement might be better spent on standardizing to NATO spec for logistics.
Short term the US and Germany might be able to backfill some nations but that back fill is taxing. The Germans had only X number ready to roll from storage and the Prepositioned stores of the US European forces are looking rather thin.
Because Some tanks are better than no tanks the Merkava 2/3 order makes sense probably for back fill. Depending on versions these tanks already meet NATO standards and at the very least can be used to retrain a long dormant tank force.
Mid term though European defense and western defense industry bases were allowed to grow thin. Ukraine war has forced NATO to hit the gym and bulk up like Harry Spotter.
In the mid term my expectations are More Leopard 2 orders however the German market means that for many of the states closer to Russia and farther from Berlin the cost point on the latest Leopards makes them less an option, more Abrams back fill with some becoming permanent seems likely but similar issue on cost.
As the Polish K2PL line opens I expect a number of states in Europe to start buying off it both K2 and the heavier K2PL configurations have potential for a number of Eastern NATO/EU states and the Korean and Polish labor costs are fairly low. Which if they can meet demand may push it ahead of the German. The Koreans seem very happy to give generous terms of use and licenses. We might even see a few more modern Merkava pop up. At the very least the Trophy system.
To our Europe first friend. in the end The EU is a loose confederation and each nation in that confederation has its own economy and military needs to consider along side those of the NATO.
Even if the Tank a nation buys is a Korean design, it’s likely that the version used will be a conglomerate of Asian, European, American and even Israeli systems and components. The Merkava is a perfect example of this. It’s using a German transmission, German/American Engine, Belgian Machine guns, American radios. Abrams has a similar breakdown of parts and systems from across the world. Even Leopard 2 has some American parts and has since the first versions.
K2PL With the Poles working with the Koreans to build a manufacturing plant for K2 in Poland for both domestic and export it seems like that will be the best bet.
The Franco Germanic MGCS won’t be available for atleast another decade. It’s a Frankenstein’s monster at this point. The hull of a German leopard 2, the turret of a French Leclerc the gun of another French Leclerc. Optics and systems pulled from all other the place. The 140mm is experimental.
Rhinemetall Kf51 Panther will require more work to complete. At this point it requires a new hull and the 130mm ammunition supply isn’t in production. It’s probably also a decade away.
Challanger 3 lines are not active in the UK and as a overhaul it’s not an export option. Later decades it will be available
Leopard 2 is also primarily overhauling older tanks but with the German military readiness rates and decades of peace Dividend, big question on if they could meet market demand. Italy is said to be working to acquire a number in supplement to the C1.
C1 Areste line long closed Italy did not modernize as they should have. Now rushing to overhaul.
Leclerc line is closed. Overhauling MBT to Scorpion.
Abrams yes the American Abrams. Is getting around european nations as backfill. A1 versions and A2 versions are being delivered and developed. However No new Abrams hull has come off the line in decades. These are all refits and overhauls most of the back fill is coming from US Army prepositioned storage in Europe with Poland having a large standing order being rebuilt in the US
Altay is an option if they feel they could justify the expense and option to get into licensing. however it’s long delayed and that delay isn’t just the Koreans it’s the Turks trying to find the never ending engine drama. German, Ukrainian now Korean… I am sure they will claim Turkish in a few years.
Frankly right now more demand than supply. Poland was already pushing an ambitious Tank modernization program that called for the largest tank army in Europe based on K2 and Abrams.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine.
With the pax Europe basically over the sudden restart of war programs it questionable whether even preserved Soviet based MBT production would be viable. I mean if the 125mm is going to Ukraine and having seen many of the latest versions of those vehicles base models blown apart… it seems like resources on procurement might be better spent on standardizing to NATO spec for logistics.
Short term the US and Germany might be able to backfill some nations but that back fill is taxing. The Germans had only X number ready to roll from storage and the Prepositioned stores of the US European forces are looking rather thin.
Because Some tanks are better than no tanks the Merkava 2/3 order makes sense probably for back fill. Depending on versions these tanks already meet NATO standards and at the very least can be used to retrain a long dormant tank force.
Mid term though European defense and western defense industry bases were allowed to grow thin. Ukraine war has forced NATO to hit the gym and bulk up like Harry Spotter.
In the mid term my expectations are More Leopard 2 orders however the German market means that for many of the states closer to Russia and farther from Berlin the cost point on the latest Leopards makes them less an option, more Abrams back fill with some becoming permanent seems likely but similar issue on cost.
As the Polish K2PL line opens I expect a number of states in Europe to start buying off it both K2 and the heavier K2PL configurations have potential for a number of Eastern NATO/EU states and the Korean and Polish labor costs are fairly low. Which if they can meet demand may push it ahead of the German. The Koreans seem very happy to give generous terms of use and licenses. We might even see a few more modern Merkava pop up. At the very least the Trophy system.
To our Europe first friend. in the end The EU is a loose confederation and each nation in that confederation has its own economy and military needs to consider along side those of the NATO.
Even if the Tank a nation buys is a Korean design, it’s likely that the version used will be a conglomerate of Asian, European, American and even Israeli systems and components. The Merkava is a perfect example of this. It’s using a German transmission, German/American Engine, Belgian Machine guns, American radios. Abrams has a similar breakdown of parts and systems from across the world. Even Leopard 2 has some American parts and has since the first versions.
SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
Everything more or less correct, but one thing.
MGCS has nothing to do with EuroTank, the frankestein tank with Leo2 hull and Leclerc turret.
Really, nothing to do with that one.
You probably mixed the 2 things.
New Leopard 2 tanks are being built, but with the demand for new tanks to replace older tanks (T-72, Leopard 2A4 . . .) being given to Ukraine, & countries bringing forward replacement of old tanks & in some cases increasing the number they want, meeting demand does seem to be a problem.
Germany is buyng new Leopard 2A8, initially 18 & possibly another 105. Czechia wants up to 70 & it's receiving some 2A4 as an interim replacement for T-72s given to Ukraine. Norway has ordered 54 2A8. Hungary is receiving 44 2A7+, & has 12 2A4 for training.
Last I heard there was a production line for hulls operating in Greece. I'm not sure if they're currently being made in Germany, though everything else is.
The 105 are an option in the framework contract for possible straight-up government-to-government resale, i.e. taking some or all of these is being offered to interested partner nations. The Czech interest in up to 70 is them staking a claim to possibly buy out most of this contingent.
This model with the German framework contract was likely chosen to force the manufacturer into committing to a contractually agreed set of potential delivery dates as well as a fixed price, both fairly important when considering the extremely massive price hikes and stretched production queues on the market.
Terran
Well-Known Member
I stand corrected however. That’s still pushing MGCS farther away. With EMBT still being a Frankenstein’s tank.
As to nothing to do with each other, that seems unlikely. EMBT or EuroTank is more likely to showcase the technologies meant for the eventual MGCS. I mean technology requires prototyping, demonstration and maturity. EMBT as an “interim solution” is basically meant to bridge the gap well “spiraling” in technology for MGCS. A Bridge between the current MBTs and the Next MBT. That’s the same rationale of Abrams X. It might be built as is but only because the next MBT requires more time.
The questions are on lead time and production rates. Not just the new tanks but the old ones too. It takes time and strong production base to spool up builds. Even for an existing line you can’t just walk in today and say “hey guys orders from the top we need triple the output.”My use of the word “Primarily” was as like you, have heard of active production but not where or how much. Most of the Leopard 2 in Europe are former German army a few new orders from Spain and Greece that were specifically for them. After that it’s not easy to see new production reports.
Even if they are building new, the support base is still going to be divided as you need to back fill the spare parts bins of Germany, Poland… ecta ecta. Well also building new orders.
Polish officials have been quoted complaining about the lack of spare parts.
'Eternal problem' may delay the delivery of Leopard 2s to Ukraine
bulgarianmilitary.com
They may need to soak up the parts and maintenance refill themselves just to get the German army anywhere near where it should be.
Back on topic please. If you want to discuss non Russian tank production start another thread.
Makes sense. The manufacturers of various weapons have been complaining that they're being expected to invest in production without solid assurances of orders. This should settle that for Leopard 2.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
There are reports of Wagner commanders being arrested by the RU military police in Syria (via Google translate):
The Russian military police in Syria detained four high-ranking commanders of the private military company Wagner. This is reported by the Saudi TV channel "Al-Hadas" with reference to sources.
It is specified that in the south of the country, the head of PMC in Al-Suwayda was detained, and three more commanders were detained at Khmeimim Air Base. According to the channel, the police also came to PMC offices in Deir ez-Zor, Hama and Damascus.
m.lenta.ru
The Russian military police in Syria detained four high-ranking commanders of the private military company Wagner. This is reported by the Saudi TV channel "Al-Hadas" with reference to sources.
It is specified that in the south of the country, the head of PMC in Al-Suwayda was detained, and three more commanders were detained at Khmeimim Air Base. According to the channel, the police also came to PMC offices in Deir ez-Zor, Hama and Damascus.
Российские военные задержали высокопоставленных командиров ЧВК «Вагнер» в Сирии
Российская военная полиция в Сирии задержала четырех высокопоставленных командиров частной военной компании (ЧВК) «Вагнер». Уточняется, что на юге страны был задержан руководитель ЧВК в Эс-Сувейде, еще троих командиров задержали на авиабазе Хмеймим. Полиция также приходила в представительства в...
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #2,132
I'm going to move all new discussion of the Wagner situation vis-a-vis Syria, Africa, Belarus, etc. to this thread. It's no longer directly related to the war in Ukraine. Wagner discussion surrounding their continued involvement in Ukraine or their reformation for the purpose of contributing to that war effort can continue in the other thread.There are reports of Wagner commanders being arrested by the RU military police in Syria (via Google translate):
The Russian military police in Syria detained four high-ranking commanders of the private military company Wagner. This is reported by the Saudi TV channel "Al-Hadas" with reference to sources.
It is specified that in the south of the country, the head of PMC in Al-Suwayda was detained, and three more commanders were detained at Khmeimim Air Base. According to the channel, the police also came to PMC offices in Deir ez-Zor, Hama and Damascus.
Российские военные задержали высокопоставленных командиров ЧВК «Вагнер» в Сирии
Российская военная полиция в Сирии задержала четырех высокопоставленных командиров частной военной компании (ЧВК) «Вагнер». Уточняется, что на юге страны был задержан руководитель ЧВК в Эс-Сувейде, еще троих командиров задержали на авиабазе Хмеймим. Полиция также приходила в представительства в...
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I asked in the other thread, who is going to pay to the Wagner troops in Belarus and for what. Simply to add content, according to Putin, the Russian government paid 70.3 billion rubles in salaries and 15.8 billion in bonuses (or as I understand it, anyway). In addition, insurance payouts in the total amount of 110 billion rubles were made to the troops and their families (wounded and killed, I am assuming). These are payments for the period from May 2022 to May 2023.
m.lenta.ru
The same articles also mentions that the company called Concord (Prigozhin’s company) also received 80 billion rubles (basically food supplier for the Army).
In total, that’d be about $3.5 billion (using the average exchange rate) going Prigozhin’s way in a period of one year from the Russian government. Putin is currently concerned if there was any theft involved (via Google translate):
The Russian president said he was concerned about the possible theft of funds allocated to the fighters. “I hope that during these works no one stole anything or, let’s say, stole less,” he concluded.
That could be a part of what happens next: the end of Prigozhin, even if he doesn’t catch wind and flies out of a window, kills himself, drinks expired refreshments, and so on.
Edit: Wagner says that the arrests in Syria mentioned in my posts above are fake news:
t.me
Путин назвал расходы бюджета на содержание ЧВК «Вагнер»
Содержание ЧВК «Вагнер» обошлось российскому бюджету в 200 миллиардов рублей в период с мая 2022 года по май 2023-го, сообщил президент России Владимир Путин. Основная сумма поддержания деятельности группы составила 70,3 миллиарда рублей, еще 15,8 миллиарда было направлено на стимулирующие выплаты.
The same articles also mentions that the company called Concord (Prigozhin’s company) also received 80 billion rubles (basically food supplier for the Army).
In total, that’d be about $3.5 billion (using the average exchange rate) going Prigozhin’s way in a period of one year from the Russian government. Putin is currently concerned if there was any theft involved (via Google translate):
The Russian president said he was concerned about the possible theft of funds allocated to the fighters. “I hope that during these works no one stole anything or, let’s say, stole less,” he concluded.
That could be a part of what happens next: the end of Prigozhin, even if he doesn’t catch wind and flies out of a window, kills himself, drinks expired refreshments, and so on.
Edit: Wagner says that the arrests in Syria mentioned in my posts above are fake news:
Оркестр Вагнера | Wagner
По задержанию бойцов ЧВК "Вагнер" в Сирии. ㅤ Информация о задержании не соответствует действительности. @orchestra_w
t.me
Last edited:
I have changed the thread title from "Russian and the West" to "Russia - General Discussion" just to widen the topic because the situation within Russia has changed with Prigozhin's act of rebellion.
Various commentary about the ongoing political situation in Russia.
Lukashenko's version of the deal between Prigozhin and Putin, plus his part in it.
I don't necessarily agree with this, but the possibility does exist.
https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1673254846986592257
It does look like Putin has ordered the dissolution of Wagner PMC.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673427685714829313
Lukashenko's version of the deal between Prigozhin and Putin, plus his part in it.
I don't necessarily agree with this, but the possibility does exist.
https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1673254846986592257
It does look like Putin has ordered the dissolution of Wagner PMC.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673427685714829313
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Several reports from outside of RU claim Surovkin has been arrested. Waiting for confirmation from RU.
www.themoscowtimes.com
Russian General Arrested Following Wagner Mutiny – MT Russian - The Moscow Times
Updated to include additional reports.
www.themoscowtimes.com
There are reports from within Russia on Telegram from various Russian posters. The Washington Post and NY Times reports are apparently based on leaked US intelligence.Several reports from outside of RU claim Surovkin has been arrested. Waiting for confirmation from RU.
Russian General Arrested Following Wagner Mutiny – MT Russian - The Moscow Times
Updated to include additional reports.
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1674174082546384898
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1674128408417128471
And finally this comment from Blackadder sums up the Russian effort.
https://twitter.com/pitchblacksteed/status/1673657580449587203
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️"С ним ничего не произошло, он на рабочем месте находится" — дочь генерала Суровикина на вопрос о местонахождении ее отца В сети появился разговор с Вероникой, дочерью Сергея Суровикина, которая опровергла распространившиеся слухи о задержании ее отца. t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
Russian Telegram put claim from Surovikin daughter, that claim his Father still working as ussual. At least that's what I got through translation.
This war really full fog of war, claim and counter claim. Really interesting to see both claim and counter claim working.
We have various russian sources and mil bloggers say that he is under some sort of arrest. If he is and that video was made under duress, surely his daughter of all people is not going to go against anything the MOD tells her to say. Its been 6 days since the "coup". It would have been relatively easy for pravda to release a video of Surovikin going about normal business, but they still havent. When there is smoke there is fire.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️"С ним ничего не произошло, он на рабочем месте находится" — дочь генерала Суровикина на вопрос о местонахождении ее отца В сети появился разговор с Вероникой, дочерью Сергея Суровикина, которая опровергла распространившиеся слухи о задержании ее отца. t.me/RVvoenkor
Russian Telegram put claim from Surovikin daughter, that claim his Father still working as ussual. At least that's what I got through translation.
This war really full fog of war, claim and counter claim. Really interesting to see both claim and counter claim working.