Russia - General Discussion.

swerve

Super Moderator
If French and German companies want an EU-wide defence industry, they need to sell shares so they're evenly owned across the EU, with profits and jobs shared.
Are you saying that German & French companies should control who buys their shares? How would that work? What if Poles, Greeks, or whoever don't want to buy their shares?

Rheinmetall's shares are publicly traded. 54% are owned by individuals, 46% by institutional investors. Poles, etc. are completely free to buy them.

KNDS is different, being 50% owned by the French state & 50% by a German family trust with 26 members of 4 families. Should they be dispossessed? And if the French state shareholding was put up for sale, how could it be guaranteed that the right people would buy it?

And what about the non-French, non-German companies? Czechs, Poles, Spanish, Italians, etc. Should their shares be distributed? Or should their countries continue to treat them preferentially?
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Are you saying that German & French companies should control who buys their shares? How would that work? What if Poles, Greeks, or whoever don't want to buy their shares?
I'm saying that if people want EU member states to be buying armoured vehicles and similar items just from within the EU - which generally means buying French and German - those manufacturers should be reformed into truly pan-EU companies, or profit margins be cut so it's worth their while.

Seriously, where has this idea come from that rather than benefit from competition on the international defence market, countries should be dependent on their neighbours? The EU isn't a military alliance, it's an economic organisation with political elements - and often political tensions.

What's next, should Italy and Poland be expected to ditch CAMM because it was first developed by the UK? Should Spain be made to ditch ESSM for the Bonifaz-class and buy Aster?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What do you do if you don't have a domestic manufacturer in the first place? Only a handful of countries can make top-tier tanks, but far more want them.
If one is Luxembourg, or Djibouti, one suffers. But in Europe MBTs were produced in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Romania, Ukraine, and Russia. Today only France, Germany, and Russia, retain full domestic production capabilities. Ukraine presumably had them pre-war (though they were in poor state, there's a reason the only T-84Ms produced went to Thailand). I'm unclear on the exact state of the Polish factory, but the rest seems to have lost the capability. I suspect for many this is a mistake.

It doesn't benefit EU states to be reliant on French and German tanks - or indeed in the future MGCS which may need both French and German approval for export. As you say, Poland doesn't have great relations with France and Germany. Being reliant on them for tanks and armoured vehicles would give them far more power within the EU.
Sure. But any reason Poland couldn't produce a PT-92 Twardy 2? Presumably they would have to partner with someone for some of the tech, but it would still be better then a pure import. Of course there is a reason. The reason is they got cheap Leo-2A4s (a very modern western MBT of 1979 vintage). So they let domestic capability decay and are now dependent on someone for foreign supplies.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
In the past couple of days, there have been some speculations if Merkava’s are going to end up in Ukraine.


Personally, I think it is a very long shot and unlikely.
Quoting myself here for continuity.

Today, several Russian and European articles (probably others as well) suggested that the European country in question is going to be Poland, others citing that the two countries are Poland and Ukraine. All of the articles that I read were citing Israeli Walla as the original source. I tried looking myself, but all being in Hebrew lead me no further. Luckily, I have someone “handy” who speaks Hebrew and asked her to scroll through and find the original.


It’s funny because the original article states the following (this is via Google translate, my “handy” person made a better translation for me, but it doesn't change the point and this way I have something “legit” to reference):

A security official confirmed last night (Saturday) to Walla! Because negotiations are currently taking place with two European countries, but at this stage there is no maturity for a deal. A security expert in Poland estimated that the tanks are intended for Poland and Ukraine.

So everyone is citing Walla which is citing some supposedly “expert in Poland”.

In addition, she scrolled through other Israeli media outlets and gave me the briefs from the most recent publications. Essentially, the United States is pressuring Israel for the sale, but nothing could be further from a done deal. A good deal of Israeli officials and top brass in particular are strictly against the sale regardless of who the buyer is. They basically want to keep their tanks. Ukraine itself is out of the question because there is a law in Israel along the lines of “Israel cannot sell military equipment to third world countries”. There is also talk about Israeli minister of defence being pressured by the Americans to have a conversation with Reznikov (the Ukrainian counterpart) in regards to what Ukraine needs in terms of defensive weapons/systems.

Hope that puts some further context into what is happening in that part of the world.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...- those manufacturers should be reformed into truly pan-EU companies, ...
I think you're missing my point. Who does this reform? How could it be enforced? How could it be legal?

And why only French & German companies? Why not the multiple other EU manufacturers? Note that you can buy a French SP gun on a Czech platform, Swedish SP guns, a Slovak gun on a Czech platform, & so on, German, Swedish, Polish & Spanish-Austrian tracked IFVs . . . . there's plenty of competition.
 
That's a very zero-sum attitude, along the lines of people who suggest more trade barriers to protect local industry. Trade and competition is good, providing there are minimum standards involved. China and North Korea aren't undercutting NATO defence contractors - the competition is largely from within NATO or friendly first-world countries.
We’re talking about the defence industry here, not a random free market industry. This is an industry where products are downgraded for exports, reexports need permission and top producers refuse to sell to most countries. Being dependent on imports is a strategic vulnerability. Today you might be “best friends” with your weapons supplier, and tomorrow you may end up in a sanctions list.

European countries used to have a top notch defence industry, but lately they have lost a lot of ground to the US. Europeans ended up without a 5th gen fighter jet because they bought the F35. Now they are making different efforts to direclty build a 6th gen fighter jet, but will they be able to do it, skipping the 5th gen, or are they too far behind the US already?

In order to be able to invest large amounts of money in R&D for a new weapons system, you need high sales volumes. Otherwise, your unit costs will be too high and your equipment will be too expensive. You need to have economies of scale.

If Europeans don’t buy their own military hardware, who do you expect to give those big orders? It won’t be the Americans the ones who will buy European jets or tanks. The logical question is, why are the Europeans buying US hardware instead of boosting their own industry?

Countries like Poland shouldn't be limited to buying French or German just because it suits French and German companies. If French and German companies want an EU-wide defence industry, they need to sell shares so they're evenly owned across the EU, with profits and jobs shared.
Those companies already have owners. Some of them are even public, so Polish citizens can buy shares if they want to. Airbus is an example of successful integration between several defence companies from various European countries.

My point is, the EU should make rules regarding the acquisition of military hardware, that prioritizes EU companies. You never see the US buying European weapons system when they have a domestic alternative.

Competition spurs innovation. In contast protectionism leads to stagnation.
I mostly agree with this, but the defence industry is a strategic industry where there is no free market. If you lack one, you can easily be left behind or excluded, and you have no recourse. Look at Argentina after the Falkland war. They relied on imports, and they were cut off from access to military technology, so they could not rebuild their military. Their army is now useless as they can no longer buy advanced equipment.

If the EU wants to remain relevant as a global power, it needs to have its own high tech defense industry. For this, you need big orders in order to have enough money to invest in R&D and reach economies of scale. If the EU doesn’t protect its defence industry, nobody else will. The Americans and the Chinese will be happy to see Europe’s defence industry dwindle and become less and less relevant.

The Americans are happy to sell Abrams tanks to any country that sends its Leopards to Ukraine, as it gets another customer at the expense of the German industry.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
I think you're missing my point. Who does this reform? How could it be enforced? How could it be legal?
I do apologise. I didn't mean to suggest it was easy or desirable, I'm saying in the absence of a truly pan-EU defence contractor there's no reason for countries to never buy outside the EU.

And why only French & German companies? Why not the multiple other EU manufacturers?
Because the original poster was talking about tanks and other heavy vehicles.

Today only France, Germany, and Russia, retain full domestic production capabilities.
Yes, in part because they all managed to secure export orders. It might not have mattered for Russia and Germany did get many orders from within the EU, but it certainly gave French industry a shot in the arm. The Germans weren't hurt by orders to Norway, Chile, Singapore and elsewhere.

It's easy to criticise retrospectively, but after the Cold War many of the countries you mentioned didn't have the money to maintain domestic (land) defence industries. The UK might have been able to keep our manufactuers soldiering on, but these are the people that thought it was a smashing idea to put a rifled barrel on the Challenger 1 & 2. There's no obvious reason to believe they'd have learnt from their mistakes and built something really good.

Sure. But any reason Poland couldn't produce a PT-92 Twardy 2?
Would it have been any good? Many countries can often develop things domestically, but whether they will actually do a good job is another.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes, in part because they all managed to secure export orders. It might not have mattered for Russia and Germany did get many orders from within the EU, but it certainly gave French industry a shot in the arm. The Germans weren't hurt by orders to Norway, Chile, Singapore and elsewhere.

It's easy to criticise retrospectively, but after the Cold War many of the countries you mentioned didn't have the money to maintain domestic (land) defence industries. The UK might have been able to keep our manufactuers soldiering on, but these are the people that thought it was a smashing idea to put a rifled barrel on the Challenger 1 & 2. There's no obvious reason to believe they'd have learnt from their mistakes and built something really good.
The T-72 family has a rifled barrel. That didn't stop the T-90 from being a best seller. And that's in the absence of a robust domestic customer. The Leo-2 marched across Europe. The Challeger didn't. There are reasons there.

Would it have been any good? Many countries can often develop things domestically, but whether they will actually do a good job is another.
Would a PT-92 be good in 2023 as an alternative to the K-2? No. Could it be a good Leo-2A4 alternative in the early 2000's? Yes.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Those companies already have owners. Some of them are even public, so Polish citizens can buy shares if they want to. Airbus is an example of successful integration between several defence companies from various European countries.
MBDA, Thales, Leonardo . . . Leonardo has more US ownership than anything else.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
The T-72 family has a rifled barrel.
Ehhhh, what?

Quoting myself here for continuity.

Today, several Russian and European articles (probably others as well) suggested that the European country in question is going to be Poland, others citing that the two countries are Poland and Ukraine. All of the articles that I read were citing Israeli Walla as the original source. I tried looking myself, but all being in Hebrew lead me no further. Luckily, I have someone “handy” who speaks Hebrew and asked her to scroll through and find the original.


It’s funny because the original article states the following (this is via Google translate, my “handy” person made a better translation for me, but it doesn't change the point and this way I have something “legit” to reference):

A security official confirmed last night (Saturday) to Walla! Because negotiations are currently taking place with two European countries, but at this stage there is no maturity for a deal. A security expert in Poland estimated that the tanks are intended for Poland and Ukraine.

So everyone is citing Walla which is citing some supposedly “expert in Poland”.

In addition, she scrolled through other Israeli media outlets and gave me the briefs from the most recent publications. Essentially, the United States is pressuring Israel for the sale, but nothing could be further from a done deal. A good deal of Israeli officials and top brass in particular are strictly against the sale regardless of who the buyer is. They basically want to keep their tanks. Ukraine itself is out of the question because there is a law in Israel along the lines of “Israel cannot sell military equipment to third world countries”. There is also talk about Israeli minister of defence being pressured by the Americans to have a conversation with Reznikov (the Ukrainian counterpart) in regards to what Ukraine needs in terms of defensive weapons/systems.

Hope that puts some further context into what is happening in that part of the world.
Author of that article, Amir Bohbot, is not a reliable source. He's notorious for poor journalistic standards and even disinformation. He often passes rumors as facts. It's gotten to a point where his name is synonymous with poor defense journalism in Israel.
There are also many holes in that article. For example Mr. Kulas said one nation is European, then Bohbot says two. Kulas said the US is a bottleneck because Israel needs their approval (American engines), but Bohbot says the US is pressuring Israel (implies the US would fast-track any process on their side). Kulas said the IDF planned to scrap them and sell by metal weight, but Bohbot says it apparently protests having them sold off abroad?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Ehhhh, what?
Yeah. IIRC the 100mm gun of the T-55 was the last Soviet rifled tank gun. T-62 onwards - all smoothbore.

The idea that Poland would add Merkava to its surplus of tank types (T-72, PT-91, Leopard 2, M1, K2) seemed distinctly odd to me when I read it. Even allowing for the T-72s being given to Ukraine as fast as they can be replaced, it's strange.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Yeah. IIRC the 100mm gun of the T-55 was the last Soviet rifled tank gun. T-62 onwards - all smoothbore.

The idea that Poland would add Merkava to its surplus of tank types (T-72, PT-91, Leopard 2, M1, K2) seemed distinctly odd to me when I read it. Even allowing for the T-72s being given to Ukraine as fast as they can be replaced, it's strange.
There's a possibility Merkavas could be exempt from export regulation so Poland could resell them but I'm not sure.
 

Pukovnik7

Member
If one is Luxembourg, or Djibouti, one suffers. But in Europe MBTs were produced in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Romania, Ukraine, and Russia. Today only France, Germany, and Russia, retain full domestic production capabilities. Ukraine presumably had them pre-war (though they were in poor state, there's a reason the only T-84Ms produced went to Thailand). I'm unclear on the exact state of the Polish factory, but the rest seems to have lost the capability. I suspect for many this is a mistake.
Croatia is still technically capable of producing M-84 tank domestically - note that 40 M-84A4 Sniper tanks were purchased by Croatia from Đuro Đaković between 1996 and 2003. But these depended heavily on imported components, so I am not sure it qualifies as "full domestic production capabilities".
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Croatia is still technically capable of producing M-84 tank domestically - note that 40 M-84A4 Sniper tanks were purchased by Croatia from Đuro Đaković between 1996 and 2003. But these depended heavily on imported components, so I am not sure it qualifies as "full domestic production capabilities".
2003 is a long time ago. Are the facilities still preserved?
 

Pukovnik7

Member
2003 is a long time ago. Are the facilities still preserved?
They should be, as there was some talk of possibility of buying new tanks even a year or two ago. Of course, it could be that these were just pipe dreams, but Đuro Đaković does regular maintenance on the tanks as well as their modernization so at least some capacity still exists.

EDIT: In 2018., Đuro Đaković claimed to be capable of producing 20 tanks per year.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Croatia is still technically capable of producing M-84 tank domestically - note that 40 M-84A4 Sniper tanks were purchased by Croatia from Đuro Đaković between 1996 and 2003. But these depended heavily on imported components, so I am not sure it qualifies as "full domestic production capabilities".
But the M-84s are no longer competitive on the international market, and that is the key factor. Preserving capabilities and jobs is a very expensive venture.
One might consider it a strategic industry but if your government is the only customer, the ability of the local industry to innovate and offer competitive products compared to external imports would be limited. You will need a government with a generous budget to keep things humming along without exports but it cannot continue indefinitely, and would depends on exports. Turkey is on that trajectory.

The other factor to note is European countries would have more stringent export controls and I suspect that woud limit their potential markets.
 

Pukovnik7

Member
But the M-84s are no longer competitive on the international market, and that is the key factor. Preserving capabilities and jobs is a very expensive venture.
One might consider it a strategic industry but if your government is the only customer, the ability of the local industry to innovate and offer competitive products compared to external imports would be limited. You will need a government with a generous budget to keep things humming along without exports but it cannot continue indefinitely, and would depends on exports. Turkey is on that trajectory.

The other factor to note is European countries would have more stringent export controls and I suspect that woud limit their potential markets.
Issue here is that I am not sure any other tanks would be adequate for Croatian needs. Sure, Leopard 2 and Abrams would be head and shoulders above the M-84, but they are heavy. So the only Western tanks I can think of that would fit Croatia would be AMX Leclerc and KF51 Panther (assuming latter goes into production). Outside Europe there is also Japanese Type 90 and Type 10, as well as Korean K2 Black Panther, but issue is politics and supply chains.
 

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member
I highly doubt facilities to produce MBTs are still there after 20 years.
CIO ( Consorzio Iveco-Oto Melara ), the consortium that produced Ariete MBT, Dardo IFV and Centauro B1 sold all the equipment used to produce them as scrap after only some months after the production ended.
It is not sustainable for any company to preserve facilities that are not needed.

As reported here by the former Ita Army Chief of Staff Video, even KMW some years ago refused to sell them a small number of Leopard 2 from german stock because they sold some of the machinery and would have been forced to buy new ones.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
MIC's are very expensive to maintain, especially if they can't get enough export order. New comers to export market will need enough capital to back it up, as it is expensive to open new market. Basically you need to accept thin margin, even sometimes negative margin to gain new customers.

Most expensive thing on new products is designing and developing new model, or even to keep upgrade existing models updated. This is rules on any Industry not just MIC. This is also why I believe many MIC from cold War can't survive. So, the most probable (in this case MBT) course for smaller EU nation MIC is becoming license manufacturing from Franco-German design.

This's also what many East European MIC done in cold War anyways. Doing license manufacturing from Soviet design and then doing some modifications on their own. They have to swallowed their pride and becoming sub contractor for mostly Franco-German design (on MBT), or other Euro big boys products on other defense articles. Realistically they can only afford RnD on smaller defenses assets anyway.

The only MBT program outside Franco-German at least in forseable future is Turkish Altay. Thus it is also possible for East Euro MIC working with Turkiye. Although I do sense Turkiye probably has an eye to workout whatever left of Ukrainian MIC. I know from Turkish media and forums there's talk with Ukrainian on whatever design that Motorsich can provide for Turkiye turbofan program and even diesels for naval and MBT. Ukrainian problem is if they don't workout something with Turkiye soon (as most probable Partners that already working out with them even before the War), their MIC will be continued idle and their technical skills fading away. It is much harder to revive your skill (on any industry), if you can't maintain what you have now.
 
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