Russia - General Discussion.

[KipPotapych]

^ Budanov and Zaluzhny were “wounded and/or dead” for weeks though.

 

[ngatimozart]

Apparently Larov, the Russian FM, has gone to Syria to personally inform Asad that Wagner will no longer being acting independently in Syria.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1674105163554906112

 

[John Fedup]

This article discusses the FSB, GRU, and other security responses to Prigozhin's short lived rebellion. As an casual observer, It seems to me some senior people sat on the fence and were waiting to see happened. Regardless, Putin's confidence in these organisations must be diminished and his failure to punish indicates some weakness but any significant purging would likely mean even more trouble so I guess sitting on the fence works for him as well.

Putin’s Real Security Crisis: The Most Important Lesson of the Wagner Rebellion Is the FSB’s Failure (foreignaffairs.com)

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Thanks. And it opens, to boot. I find it hard to get behind the paywall at the FA more often than not (a step less from WSJ, but still a rare event). I’ll take a read when I have a minute.

Another bit on the Wagner from Reuters. It appears that earlier reports of commanders in Syria being arrested may have been true. This Reuters report citing Syrian officials and others suggests that Wagner in the country was basically dismantled in the early hours of Prigozhin’s run. It indicates that absolute majority of Wagner personnel in Syria signed new contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence and took pay cuts. Those who didn’t were flown out of the country. It also implies via Flightradar tracker similar flight(s) took place in Mali.

Syria brought Wagner fighters to heel as mutiny unfolded in Russia

As Wagner mercenaries advanced on Moscow in an attempted mutiny in late June, authorities in Syria and Russian military commanders there took a series of swift measures against local Wagner operatives to prevent the uprising spreading, according to six sources familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

Like I mentioned earlier, this does look like the beginning (or the end, ha!) of the end for Wagner. I don't recall for sure who it was now, but feel like it was a higher-up official from CAR, who said something along the lines of “We don’t care if they send us Mozart or Beethoven instead, we will take them all”. I would not be surprised that events similar to those that happened in Syria happened elsewhere as well.

In the meantime, Bat’ka (Lukashenko) says that Prigozhin is in Sankt Petersburg, while Peskov said that “we neither have capabilities nor will” to track the whereabouts of the chef. There is no one at the new Wagner camp in Belarus either (via Google translate):

Assistant Minister of Defense of Belarus Leonid Kasinsky told the BELT agency that there are no fighters of PMC "Wagner" in the camp near Osipovichi. Representatives of the military company have not yet come to the camp and got acquainted with the possible accommodation.

"I think that when the final decision of the Wagner group is made whether to be located or not to be located in Belarus, then they will watch," he said.

The tent camp proposed by Belarus to accommodate fighters of PMC Wagner can accommodate about 5 thousand people. It is also possible to place military equipment in the camp.

On June 6, during a meeting with journalists, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko spoke about the proposal to place Wagner PMC fighters in former military camps that were used in Soviet times. At the same time, Mr. Lukashenko noted that the heads of PMC "Wagner" have a "different vision of their deployment". He added that at present the issue of redeployment and placement of PMC "Wagner" in Belarus remains unresolved, as it depends "on the decision of the Russian side and the Wagnerites themselves".

From: В предложенный Белоруссией ЧВК «Вагнер» лагерь пока еще никто не приехал

There are also reports that the German intelligence knew about the events to happen a week prior.

 

[ngatimozart]

According to Lukashenko, Prigozhin is in Russia, "... on Thursday Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko said: 'As for Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus.' "

Wagner boss Prigozhin is in Russia, Belarus ruler Lukashenko says

Alexander Lukashenko says Prigozhin, who led a short-lived mutiny in Russia, is in St Petersburg.

www.bbc.com

There are reports that Russian authorities have returned gold, money, and weapons to Prigozhin after they were found at his house and confiscated. If this indeed the case then it's a slap in the face for Putin because it undermines his image as a tough autocratic leader, weakening him further politically.

Exiled Wagner Group boss returns to Russia to collect confiscated weapons

Yevgeny Prigozhin was invited by the FSB in St. Petersburg to pick up his rifles and handguns in the wake of his failed mutiny.

nypost.com

It appears that the Syrian govt cracked down on Wagner forces inside Syria pretty quickly.

Syria cracked down on Wagner after mutiny in Russia: Report

Syrian authorities swiftly moved to isolate and control Wagner operatives after the mercenary group staged a rebellion.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Feanor]

There are reports that Russian authorities have returned gold, money, and weapons to Prigozhin after they were found at his house and confiscated. If this indeed the case then it's a slap in the face for Putin because it undermines his image as a tough autocratic leader, weakening him further politically.

This logic would make sense in a democratic or at least pluralistic society. Russia however is now thoroughly authoritarian. It's very likely that if anything was returned to Prigozhin it was with Putin's blessings. And if the intent is to quietly do away with Prigozhin by way of window, teacup, or car accident, it's best if he thinks he's forgiven.

 

[ngatimozart]

This logic would make sense in a democratic or at least pluralistic society. Russia however is now thoroughly authoritarian. It's very likely that if anything was returned to Prigozhin it was with Putin's blessings. And if the intent is to quietly do away with Prigozhin by way of window, teacup, or car accident, it's best if he thinks he's forgiven.

Thanks for that. I was having trouble figuring out why. Another point arises though, we know that the security services (FSB & GRU) and the military did nothing about Prigozhin's plot, before and when it happened. Both the GRU and FSB would have penetrated Wagner, probably to a reasonably high level. So theoretically they would have heard rumblings of it yet chose to forget to pass on said information to the Kremlin. Prigozhin was videoed in Rostov On Don during the rebellion talking and laughing with Deputy Minister of Defense Yevkurov and the First Deputy Head of the Russian Military Intelligence Alekseyev about Prigozhin taking Shoigu and Gerasimov:

"But several things which happened during this uprising were extremely worrying. For instance, there's now infamous video where Prigozhin is sitting together with Deputy Minister of Defense Yevkurov and the First Deputy Head of the Russian Military Intelligence Alekseyev, and they are sharing a laugh about the idea of taking, or getting actually Shoigu and Gerasimov. That was absolutely shocking for me. And I immediately contacted my sources in the Russian security services and special forces and asked them what do they think about the idea that you have the First Head of the Russian military intelligence basically saying, well, you can have them if you want. And my people said, well, actually Alekseyev was right. And I think that was even more worrisome for Putin, because in this case, you have the most capable elements in the Russian military and Russian security services publicly questioning the military leadership."​

Source: Andrei Soldatov, Russian investigative journalist and security services expert. From 3 min 08 sec - 4 min 16 sec in​

​

Soldatov also said that the FSB office in Rostov On Don forted up and barricaded themselves in their offices. According to him, the security services and military didn't act in order to see what way the wind was blowing.

 

[Ananda]

So Putin say, enough being bad boy, this is your new contract and prepare march to Kyiev.

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

Well sure. First representations are made about NATO non-expansion, we'll leave the exact nature aside for a moment. Then a bunch of NATO expansion takes place in the late '90s and early 2000's. And then in iirc 2003 Russia decides that since there is this powerful military alliance on its doorstep maybe joining makes sense and statements are made to that effect. I don't see the contradiction. Do you?



If the US had simply vetoed expansion, there is no expansion. It doesn't require a monolithic west. Just one firm "no".



The agreement went well beyond a ceasefire. One side wanted to see the agreement implemented in its entirety. The other didn't. There is a clear reason for those "successful" attacks. It was because the initial agreement was won by force of arms and the only leverage Russia and the rebels had, in the absence of any willingness on the part of the west to pressure Ukraine, was to use force of arms. Again consider the agreements and look at the implementation or lack thereof. As soon as time came to implement any of the political pieces that actually mattered, Ukraine simply wouldn't. On the subject of ceasefire violations, if you look at the social media presence of LDNR-related figures, typically from the lower level, they are full of complaints that they would take fire from the Ukrainian side, but wouldn't be allowed to return fire. The Minsk Accords were, for all intents and purposes, a political settlement that confirmed Russia's military victory in the '14-'15 campaigns. The problem is that Ukraine had no intention of fullfilling them, and the west had no intention of forcing them to. To present this as "both sides did some wrong" is fundamentally misleading. One side wanted them to work and one didn't.



Of course he did. That was the point. The '22 invasion was an attempt to toss all the pieces off the board and use overwhelming force to alter the outcome. But it doesn't mean that you can quietly ignore the implications of the Minsk Accords for any future deals between Russia and the West. Let's say Putin and Zelensky sign a peace deal on the current line of contact, recognizing territory based on who holds what, added with full return of refugees and an eventual referendum (on some timeline) over the future of the territories in question, and Russia paying out 1.5 trillion in war damages over a span of 10 years, with all sanctions lifted. This would require ratification in the Rada. Who is to say that Ukraine, having fought to a standstill and been bled white, won't use the break to rest, refuse to ratify anything, pocket the first reparation payments, and meanwhile re-arm at the rapid rate in preparation for round 2? A reasonable observer might say "Duh! That's exactly what they should do!" And another observer might say "Now, wait. Ukraine doesn't want the war either, they're negotiating in good faith and look, France and Germany are parties to the agreement, and even the US supports it. Surely Ukraine and their western backers can be trusted." No. No they can not. And how they handled the Minsk accords is the reason why.

My fundamental question remains unanswered. If Ukraine, France, and Germany, weren't bound by the Minsk Accords, then why would they feel themselves bound by any future treaty that they're ultimately not too happy with?

And by the way, the attempt to claim that it was both sides breaking it that sank it falls apart when you consider that Merkel admitted they were only a tactic to help Ukraine prepare for war. They were signed in bad faith from the beginning.

You can flip flop all you want but at the end of the day Russia is destroying another civilization and Ukraine/NATO is trying to stop it. There is a good reason every East European country wants to be in NATO...You know, to not get exterminated.

 

[koxinga]

You can flip flop all you want but at the end of the day Russia is destroying another civilization and Ukraine/NATO is trying to stop it. There is a good reason every East European country wants to be in NATO...You know, to not get exterminated.

The act of destroying a country is not the main issue, as callous as it sounds, but the reasons justifying it. After all, Libya would have been the percieved counter point to this argument.

I don't want to say who is right or wrong but to point out that there are obviously a vast gap between what is being perceived on either sides. This will be a major impediment to any negotiations.

 

[Ananda]

can flip flop all you want but at the end of the day Russia is destroying another civilization and Ukraine/NATO is trying to stop it

Tell that to the Iraqis and Afghanis, let alone Libyans. Or are destroying another civilization have another justification if West that do that? Why some in the West still wondering why most Global South stay in the fence in this war, or come out with illusion Russian Propaganda grip most of Global South.

Justification depends on each sides point of view and perception. This is all are fleeting thing, depending on what point of view you want to see. All this is not coming on the sudden, all this build up by momentum done by suspicions of different point of view.

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

Tell that to the Iraqis and Afghanis, let alone Libyans. Or are destroying another civilization have another justification if West that do that? Why some in the West still wondering why most Global South stay in the fence in this war, or come out with illusion Russian Propaganda grip most of Global South.

What do Iraqis, Afghanis and let alone Libyans have to do with Russia exterminating Ukraine? Let alone on Russian-Ukraine subforum? Me as a Slav, I care more about what is happening now in my neighbourhood, than your idiotic "But USA..."

 

[Ananda]

Me as a Slav, I care more about what is happening now in my neighbourhood, than your idiotic "But USA..."

Trolling huh.. New guys calling idiot..

You are the ones that bring talk about destroying another civilization.

 

[rsemmes]

Putin is a serial treaty-breaker. He can't be trusted to keep any promise. Russia was formally committed to not only recognising the pre-2014 borders of Ukraine, but protecting them. Putin broke that agreement, because he could. Any treaty which rewards Putin for invading Ukraine merely stores up trouble for the future.

"Russia should be interested in peace" - I think you've forgotten who invaded who. Putin doesn't want peace: he wants victory, or at least something he can present as victory, so he can keep power, & prepare for next time. He's proved that by his behaviour. If he wanted peace he wouldn't have started the war.

I wonder how many times treaties have been broken in History.
Russia is interested in a peace with no missiles in Cuba, sorry, with Ukraine not a NATO member.
I have to object to next time. Should we invade S. Arabia because next time is going to invade, what country? Yemen, again? Is US going to invade Iran? What is US going to do next time? If we are guessing the future, I want a reliable fortune teller and a link to prove it.

 

[vonnoobie]

There are entire articles devoted to it. Swerve's point about it not being a binding agreement is likely valid. But it didn't help.

And entire articles refuting it, The fact is NATO was falling apart long before the invasion so using NATO as an excuse is total BS. Russian (Putin's) actions literally revived and expanded NATO better then any leader in the West ever could have.

They both fell apart because fundamentally and substantively Ukraine had no interest or desire to implement them. Read the agreements. There was no scenario where Ukarine's leadership was willing to follow through on what those agreements contained. Ukrainian presidents on two occasions made a serious attempt to follow through. One was Poroshenko in 2016 and the other Zelensky fairly early into his term. Both were immediately sabotaged by their own government. Both ran into issues with right wing "volunteers" not being willing to follow the separation of forces agreement and neither had a snowball's chance in hell of getting the Rada to accept the autonomous status for the LDNR.

So you are by your reasoning putting responsibility for them falling apart squarely on Ukraine's shoulders.. LPR/DPR broke as many promises/agreements as Ukraine did. Blame lies on both sides, Not one or the other.

None of portions that benefited Russia were ever implemented. Russian agricultural exports were still essentially halted.

At various time leading up to and during the grain deal Russia literally put in its own bans on exporting Russian agriculture, Russia has actually exported record amounts, and sanctions dont apply to Russian agriculture.... Exactly what is Russia expecting?

 

[rsemmes]

As has been noted, Putin's word on a treaty is worthless. If you need a roadmap of how this plays out if this invasion isn't repulsed, look to the Sudetenland in 1938. Same mission template.

As you are mentioning the Sudetenland, you should mention Teschen. I guess you can find a few more examples, "both ways", if you care to look.

Germany invaded Poland (there are a few things to read about Poland), USSR invaded Poland; the British Empire was not interested.

 

[tonnyc]

I am looking at a local newspaper, Sindonews. They have an article about the withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal and which countries will be most impacted. According to them, total grain export from Russia in 2022 was 61.8 million tonnes, with Egypt being the main importer and Turkiye second. Russia's grain export for June 2023 was 4.2 million tonnes.

I apologize for linking an article that isn't in English, but I thought having an Indonesian news source, which overall tend to be friendlier to Russia, would reduce doubts regarding the validity of the data.

So I am not certain how @Feanor concluded that Russian agricultural exports were essentially halted. Russian agricultural exports to Western Europe certainly are halted, but the rest of the world are still eating Russian grains.

 

[tonnyc]

I thought I edited in a Google Translate version of the article covering the Russian grain imports but apparently it didn't go through. So here it is.

Terungkap Siapa Pembeli Terbesar Gandum Rusia

Negara Afrika Utara itu mengimpor 11,9 juta ton gandum Rusia selama periode yang disebutkan, atau setara 22,5% dari semua ekspor Rusia. Mesir menjadi pembeli terbesar...

ekbis-sindonews-com.translate.goog

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

What do Iraqis, Afghanis and let alone Libyans have to do with Russia exterminating Ukraine? Let alone on Russian-Ukraine subforum? Me as a Slav, I care more about what is happening now in my neighbourhood, than your idiotic "But USA..."

Please calm down, that another person has other opinions and using counter arguments shouldn't be a reason to attack that person in such agressive way.

Yes, it is wrong to invade another country without a good reason, but the point is that certain countries have done this multiple times in the last decades, but these invasions (or in some cases just airstrikes) are often simply accepted because "that country is on our side" => the good guys.

And yes, there are undoubtly cases of warcrimes in Ukraine, but that Russia wants to exterminate the Oekraïnians doesn't make sense at all.

 

[John Fedup]

Please calm down, that another person has other opinions and using counter arguments shouldn't be a reason to attack that person in such agressive way.

Yes, it is wrong to invade another country without a good reason, but the point is that certain countries have done this multiple times in the last decades, but these invasions (or in some cases just airstrikes) are often simply accepted because "that country is on our side" => the good guys.

And yes, there are undoubtly cases of warcrimes in Ukraine, but that Russia wants to exterminate the Oekraïnians doesn't make sense at all.

Extermination doesn’t have to make sense, just ask Mao, Adolph, or that other more famous tyrant from Russia Joe Stalin. Many others could be added to the list.