If you are looking at that using a perspective of political competence then I am afraid with May and Trump I am sure the temporary political mismanagement and stupidity of Justin's and Jacindarella's administration are regarded as what they are - temporary and stupid with plenty of that to go around. They will be gone, as will Trump and May and Australia will likely get a Shorten cabinet. I am sure that these political sideshows that politicians wander into is well factored in.
I've got no doubt you're right about political (clown?) sideshows being factored in but the damage done by some of those clowns has had ramifications for many years thereafter... eg. in NZ's case the loss of ACF & reduction in frigate force. I don't think I'd consider Canada as much a defence basket case as NZ is now.
With almost 30 years of significant under-funding of defence NZ has now jumped beyond that side-show status and is firmly now in the 'new normal' of a dumbed down defence force and at a Govt level a complete & utter lack of understanding of the nature of defence relationships & how they are part of that 3 legged stool (the other 2 legs being foreign affairs & trade). NZ is almost at the point, if not already there, of irrelevancy in the defence space. Hey we're tiny & insignificant in the new world order of globalisation...maybe we should just accept that! Well I won't!
Being a small player NZ should always aim for quality over quantity - but cutting corners (eg: P3K2 without self-defence systems, Frigates without surface to surface weapons such as Harpoon) and so on have consistently dumbed down the quality component. if the 4 P8A are armed 'properly' and Frigate replacements meant 3 vessels with a SSM then we could start to move back into the 'quality' side of the equation but alas I'm not going to hold my breath.
There has been a systematic rundown of defence by every single Govt in the last 30 years and the $20Bn supposedly on the table was little more than catch-up & maintaining status quo - if indeed it ever actually materialised. I'm quietly confident there is a slow dawning in NZ of the folly of the last 30 years however I doubt that is going to translate to any significant increase in funding, it'll take some nasty scares and making of some very awkward decisions to turn this attitude around. Unfortunately I also foresee the Greens ascending again and that won't be great for defence.
I dare say the grown-ups in 5-eyes have pretty much moved on from taking us too seriously. I guess P8A & SAS could take up (very) small niche roles on the periphery of any significant conflict but alas we don't have the ability to sustain such deployments. The reality is we will only ever get tame side-show roles, we play on the edge of the sandpit whilst the big-boys play in the middle, but it is in fact ourselves who have cast ourselves to the edge of that sandpit.
I dare say costs were indeed a major factor in the Singaporean decision due to the decades of run-down and that should clearly flag just how unlikely it is we will ever see a NZ ACF re-established in peace time. Given RSAF were to provide the a/c NZ only had to pay a share of infrastructure costs. If NZ were to look at it's own ACF it would have a massive cost of a/c; own personnel plus those same infrastructure costs to fund, so I forthwith say here & now, the next time I see a 'dream-list' of combat a/c with supposed shelf prices etc I will bloody-well scream!
Bah-humbug, nasty xmas pressie!
