Royal New Zealand Air Force

[40 deg south]

The process is at Cabinet level for the decision on which tender is accepted. The Minister said earlier in the year that a decision was to be made in November, and that he was bringing it forward because of the problems with the Hercules, well it's now Armistice Day and no decision yet.

Point of Order

Some of you may be familiar with TransTasman, a long-running Wellington subscription-only gossip sheet that often served as a source of Ministerial leaks. The veteran journos who ran it appear to have shut up shop but now run a blog called Point of Order, that is worth looking at for political commentary. They have traditionally had very good contacts in MFAT - their servile coverage of former Minister McCully made most of Wellington believe he was their primary source.

Their Defence speculation hasn't always been as accurate, but a the following was included in a recent post:

He had constructive discussions with Pence and several senior US officials including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Singapore as he patiently rebuilds the US/NZ relationship, which has been underscored by the recent order for four P-8 maritime patrolling Poseidons while an order for five new C-103J Hercules is expected by the end of the year.

 

[ngatimozart]

NZDF begins annual airlift support for Antarctic research

The 2018 Antarctic summer season kicks off. I'd forgotten that Italy is also a member of the shared NZ/USA joint logistics pool.

In other news

Royal New Zealand Air Force

here is a great shot of the outgoing and incoming light twin-engine fleet. Still one more B350 in the paint shop, from the look of things.

Number four is yet to be delivered. Yep nice photo.

 

[KiwiRob]

Those Point of Order boys have the following to say.

Fortunately for the newbie Ardern, Foreign Minister Winston Peters hit his straps. He had constructive discussions with Pence and several senior US officials including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Singapore as he patiently rebuilds the US/NZ relationship, which has been underscored by the recent order for four P-8 maritime patrolling Poseidons while an order for five new C-103J Hercules is expected by the end of the year.

In all, it has been a steep learning curve for our PM.

Jacinda’s confrontation with hard-nose regional politics

 

[t68]

Fortunately for the newbie Ardern, Foreign Minister Winston Peters hit his straps. He had constructive discussions with Pence and several senior US officials including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Singapore as he patiently rebuilds the US/NZ relationship, which has been underscored by the recent order for four P-8 maritime patrolling Poseidons while an order for five new C-103J Hercules is expected by the end of the year.

Jacinda’s confrontation with hard-nose regional politics

Found this on another forum, seems the A400 is coming along for the RAF, if the load bearing figures quoted are orange for oranges comparison I'm amazed that A400M isn't the preferred aircraft for NZ. Cost implications aside would it be feasible for both tactical and strategic lift be the one type (7 aircraft) with a lease arrangement with ANZ/Boeing BBJ for VIP transport.

Echoing this view, was 24Sqn’s OC, Wg Cdr Burdett: “The A400M was remarkable in what it could do, It could take three times as much as a C-130 into a tight, small strip without taking any military risk in its performance. Whereas C-130 was taking in five tonnes, the A400 would be taking in 15.”

Atlas shoulders the load - Royal Aeronautical Society

 

[htbrst]

A minor update on the P-8 and number of jobs to be transferred to Manawatu with the Squadron moving to Ohakea.

Fleet of new surveillance planes at Ōhakea forecasts boon for Manawatū

Several hundred service personnel are likely to move into the region, as well as their families, according to a brief provided to Defence Minister Ron Mark, and released under the Official Information Act.

Most of the migration will come between 2022 and 2023, while the earlier construction phase is expected to sustain between 2400 to 2500 jobs.

Construction is set to start in 2019 and the aircraft are set to arrive in 2023...

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Found this on another forum, seems the A400 is coming along for the RAF, if the load bearing figures quoted are orange for oranges comparison I'm amazed that A400M isn't the preferred aircraft for NZ. Cost implications aside would it be feasible for both tactical and strategic lift be the one type (7 aircraft) with a lease arrangement with ANZ/Boeing BBJ for VIP transport.



Atlas shoulders the load - Royal Aeronautical Society

Yes, i was originally for 7 A400 M to cover both roles, but once again, it's the delivery rate they are being made at now, and the number of customers with large back orders already that has me concerned.

Add to this we now have only three years to fill the strategic role according to the deadline set. Malaysia took ten years to fill an order of just 4.

I think they could meet the Strategic deadline of 2025 and us knowing our govt track record, we would be lucky to get 2, in that role and given the procrastination,time remaining strategic i bet will go to C130 J.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Having watched and read this discussion since the start I keep asking myself how many LAVs or NH90s are looking to be moved by air to any given location to provide what level of service on the ground?

Based on the knowledge base here how often annually is this capability a requirement?

Its been said on different forums as well as this one I think but it warrants repeating. Given the cost of the initial aircraft purchase plus the costs of infrastructure and training as well as ongoing sustainment would it not be more cost effective to acquire armour and helicopters that can be transported in the aircraft that will get the most use?

If an armoured element is required for rapid deployment to provide a counter terrorism response or the need to bolster a south pacific island nation during unrest a supply of Hawkei and Bushmaster would surely suffice. Given that two Hawkei can be transported by a C130, a flight of three Hercules could land two Hawkei and two Bushmaster along with the 30 troops. A second flight of three lands four more vehicles the next day. Eight armoured vehicles and a half company of troops armed with .50 cal and 40 mm GMG far out guns anything in the south pacific at this time.

From a HADR response that same three aircraft flight of Hercules could land three UH60 helicopters. MrC made a good point in the value of remanufactured Blackhawks at reasonable cost a number of months ago.

So from a price point a dozen Hawkei is @$12 million, a dozen Bushmasters is @$12 million. Thats @$24 million. Combine this with @$100 million for five remanufactured UH60 helicopters and for less than the cost of a kitted out C130 you have a very deployable capability.

So now the focus needs to be on maximizing the number and types of C130J that can be acquired. A mixed fleet of 3 KC130J SOF plus five C130J30 should be available for @$1.2 billion including initial training and support. So for less than $1.5 billion 8 Hercules, five UH60 and two dozen armoured vehicles all interoperable with Australia the NZDF would gain a very valuable capability..

And I didnt even mention the C295W. Thought about it though Ngati.

 

[ngatimozart]

Having watched and read this discussion since the start I keep asking myself how many LAVs or NH90s are looking to be moved by air to any given location to provide what level of service on the ground?

Based on the knowledge base here how often annually is this capability a requirement?

Its been said on different forums as well as this one I think but it warrants repeating. Given the cost of the initial aircraft purchase plus the costs of infrastructure and training as well as ongoing sustainment would it not be more cost effective to acquire armour and helicopters that can be transported in the aircraft that will get the most use?

If an armoured element is required for rapid deployment to provide a counter terrorism response or the need to bolster a south pacific island nation during unrest a supply of Hawkei and Bushmaster would surely suffice. Given that two Hawkei can be transported by a C130, a flight of three Hercules could land two Hawkei and two Bushmaster along with the 30 troops. A second flight of three lands four more vehicles the next day. Eight armoured vehicles and a half company of troops armed with .50 cal and 40 mm GMG far out guns anything in the south pacific at this time.

One A400M probably could deploy all 6 vehicles in one lift; two A400M the complete 10 vehicles and all the force elements in one hit.

You could also fit in a UH-60 into the A400M without to much disassembly, which would require additional A400M flights per UH-60 deployed.

From a HADR response that same three aircraft flight of Hercules could land three UH-60 helicopters. MrC made a good point in the value of remanufactured Blackhawks at reasonable cost a number of months ago.

So from a price point a dozen Hawkei is @$12 million, a dozen Bushmasters is @$12 million. Thats @$24 million. Combine this with @$100 million for five remanufactured UH60 helicopters and for less than the cost of a kitted out C130 you have a very deployable capability.

So now the focus needs to be on maximizing the number and types of C130J that can be acquired. A mixed fleet of 3 KC130J SOF plus five C130J30 should be available for @$1.2 billion including initial training and support. So for less than $1.5 billion 8 Hercules, five UH60 and two dozen armoured vehicles all interoperable with Australia the NZDF would gain a very valuable capability..

Not bad, not bad at all.

One point to consider though is the requirement that a strategic airlifter is required to be able to fly to the Ice (McMurdo, Antarctica) loitre for an hour and be able to RTNZ without a PSR, which a C-130 cannot do even with A2AR. A400M apparently has that capability. Antarctica features strongly in NZs strategic environment.

And I didnt even mention the C295W. Thought about it though Ngati.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

There is no doubt about the A400s ability to carry outsize cargo but at what cost? The upfront purchase cost is close to $300 million NZ dollars per plane. Is this really a wise purchase based upon the perceived need of flying to the ice for a civilian role, not a military role. Hire civilian cargo jets for the ice flights. $600 million NZ dollars would be better spent on realistic military capabilities dont you think?

Lets see, 8 Chinooks, 10 C295W, 4 C130J, two more P8, maybe a new naval dockyard. For what the A400 offers in a two ship fleet more can be had that would serve NZDF and New Zealanders themselves better.

Like the NH90 the A400 is a champagne taste on a beer budget.

NH90 was the wrong choice and so is A400. Tried and true the C130J30 offers familiarity and ability for day to day needs. If A400 is available as the strategic replacement of thw B757 in seven years and a realistic need is there then so be it. But to me the A400 is not the C130H replacement.

The SOF version offers the next tier of SAR coverage in the absence of a P8. The J30 offers increased range and load volume .

Enough said that has already been said .Hopefully this week we will all hear something as it is almost the end of November.

 

[ngatimozart]

There is no doubt about the A400s ability to carry outsize cargo but at what cost? The upfront purchase cost is close to $300 million NZ dollars per plane. Is this really a wise purchase based upon the perceived need of flying to the ice for a civilian role, not a military role. Hire civilian cargo jets for the ice flights. $600 million NZ dollars would be better spent on realistic military capabilities dont you think?

Lets see, 8 Chinooks, 10 C295W, 4 C130J, two more P8, maybe a new naval dockyard. For what the A400 offers in a two ship fleet more can be had that would serve NZDF and New Zealanders themselves better.

Like the NH90 the A400 is a champagne taste on a beer budget.

NH90 was the wrong choice and so is A400. Tried and true the C130J30 offers familiarity and ability for day to day needs. If A400 is available as the strategic replacement of thw B757 in seven years and a realistic need is there then so be it. But to me the A400 is not the C130H replacement.

The SOF version offers the next tier of SAR coverage in the absence of a P8. The J30 offers increased range and load volume .

Enough said that has already been said .Hopefully this week we will all hear something as it is almost the end of November.

One of the lessons learned from Afghanistan was that the hiring of civilian air freight companies and or friendly air forces proved to be an expensive option. Plus availability wasn't guaranteed if such lift was required at short notice.

Parliament is sitting tomorrow and generally the week it sits there usually is a Cabinet meeting on the Monday morning with a press conference at 4pm in the afternoon. Yep the end of the month is this Friday.

 

[Redlands18]

One of the lessons learned from Afghanistan was that the hiring of civilian air freight companies and or friendly air forces proved to be an expensive option. Plus availability wasn't guaranteed if such lift was required at short notice.
.

That is how the RAAF was able to put a case forward for getting C-17s in 05-06, there is only one way to guarantee availability*, own your own.
Within reason of course*

 

[ngatimozart]

That is how the RAAF was able to put a case forward for getting C-17s in 05-06, there is only one way to guarantee availability*, own your own.
Within reason of course*

Dead right there. In NZ's case back in 2012 or 13 a RNZAF B757 with a senior Cabinet Member on board was caught out by bad weather conditions at Pegasus Field, McMurdo Sound. It orbited trying to find a gap in the weather to land, but in the end had to land in the conditions because it was well past it's PSR. So a proposal was put to Cabinet, heartily endorsed by the then Minister of Defence, who was also a very senior Cabinet Minister, to acquire two white tail C-17s. The Cabinet got sticker price shock and being somewhat stingy voted it down because of a fiscally stingy economic philosophy. Even the near death experience of a fellow senior Cabinet Minister failed to sway them.

 

[MrConservative]

So a proposal was put to Cabinet, heartily endorsed by the then Minister of Defence, who was also a very senior Cabinet Minister, to acquire two white tail C-17s. The Cabinet got sticker price shock and being somewhat stingy voted it down because of a fiscally stingy economic philosophy.

To be fair the issue in early 2015 was not really the sticker shock. Cabinet were aware of the price and the benefits - but the timing of making the acquisition decision out ran them. The politics of getting a surplus by the end of FY2015/16 trumped the immediate acquisition and they gambled that the remaining whitetails would not all be snapped up in the next couple of years. The lack of urgency was a lesson learned - which Brownlee and Mitchell made sure did not happen with the P-8A. The extra 4 for Qatar that June (A nation half the size of Tasmania needing 8 C-17's is questionable - and only because their arch Gulf rival the UAE had ordered 8) was from left field - they were simply blindsided by that. Labour supported it (with Goff), the select committee at the time were really impressed following their famil flight according to Mark Mitchell - the only negative person against it was Ron Mark who had only just got back into Parliament after spending time away as the Mayor of some 2 horse town and was getting his defence advice from the barman at the local RSA - though usually Ron only likes an idea if he can claim credit for thinking of it first - which some have said was likely to be a real issue.

Even the near death experience of a fellow senior Cabinet Minister failed to sway them.

That may have something to do with that particular Cabinet Minister. Possibly another or any other Cabinet Minister may have elicited greater concern and sympathy.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Afghanistan is / was a military operation and I see the need for that but at what cost to have the capability in house.

With the forthcoming new Supply ship being ice strengthened the need for multiple flights to the ice is reduced. Again this can be accomplished by civil air cargo or combi if urgent. Can you honestly justify the outlay of @$600 million for a pair of A400?

As the small Air Force that the RNZAF is why not focus on the typical day to day but with a new aircraft with improved performance at a reasonable cost of ownership.

If money wasn’t an issue than a fleet of five A400 and five C295W would be ideal providing for deployed, training and maintenance availability and attrition.

Here is hoping for a decision this week so we can get on with the discussion good and bad.

 

[Rob c]

Afghanistan is / was a military operation and I see the need for that but at what cost to have the capability in house.

With the forthcoming new Supply ship being ice strengthened the need for multiple flights to the ice is reduced. Again this can be accomplished by civil air cargo or combi if urgent. Can you honestly justify the outlay of @$600 million for a pair of A400?

As the small Air Force that the RNZAF is why not focus on the typical day to day but with a new aircraft with improved performance at a reasonable cost of ownership.

If money wasn’t an issue than a fleet of five A400 and five C295W would be ideal providing for deployed, training and maintenance availability and attrition.

Here is hoping for a decision this week so we can get on with the discussion good and bad.

Unfortunately I think that the C130J is the only likely candidate as when they eliminated the P1 from the FASC by saying it was not mature enough in its development it would seem that they shot themselves in the foot in regard to acquiring a modern transport for the FAMC. While I see the C130J as a good improvement, It is as I have said before a case off "to little to late" and in my opinion is not a great long term investment. I would have wanted us to be replacing the J's along with the RAAF in the 2030's but that won't happen. I do hope I am wrong on this.

 

[swerve]

.... The extra 4 for Qatar that June (A nation half the size of Tasmania needing 8 C-17's is questionable - ..

True that Qatar is unlikely to make good use of so many C-17s, but the physical size of the country (actually, less than a fifth of the size of Tasmania) isn't the reason. It has five times the population of Tasmania, & maybe ten times the GDP . . .

Israel is a third the size of Tasmania. Does that mean it has no use for its hundreds of operational (& many more in reserve) tanks, aerial tankers, etc.?

 

[Todjaeger]

Afghanistan is / was a military operation and I see the need for that but at what cost to have the capability in house.

With the forthcoming new Supply ship being ice strengthened the need for multiple flights to the ice is reduced. Again this can be accomplished by civil air cargo or combi if urgent. Can you honestly justify the outlay of @$600 million for a pair of A400?

As the small Air Force that the RNZAF is why not focus on the typical day to day but with a new aircraft with improved performance at a reasonable cost of ownership.

If money wasn’t an issue than a fleet of five A400 and five C295W would be ideal providing for deployed, training and maintenance availability and attrition.

Here is hoping for a decision this week so we can get on with the discussion good and bad.

There is a fundamental problem with focusing on "the typical day" and then building a force structure around that, and in reality even businesses that do responsible contingency planning look at more than just "the typical day". The fundamental problem is that while there can be long stretches where everything is going along as normal, there will be events which are outside the norm, and responsible gov'ts have the responsibility to take action if/when needed. If NZ were to just get kit sufficient to cover "the typical day" of operations, then the Kiwis would with absolute certainty, run into a capability shortfall at some point, and that point would unfortunately most likely occur when a capability was most crucial.

As many people who have been involved in this thread over time are already aware, NZ suffers (and benefits, to a degree) from "the tyranny of distance".

One result of that is that NZ has a problem moving quantities (by weight and/or volume) of cargo by air between NZ and the rest of the world. By way of example, the current C-130H Hercules would be hard pressed to lift a max normal (16,590 kg) payload from Auckland to Sydney, or anywhere else of comparable distance. This in turn means that rapidly moving supplies over long distances (why airlift is used) can become problematic, and why some examples of a larger aircraft with improved airlift capacity and range would be useful.

IMO it would be foolish to just focus on, and then object to a future airlift carrying out-sized loads and/or vehicles, as that is to ignore the literally tonnes of supplies that airlifters move.

 

[MrConservative]

but the physical size of the country (actually, less than a fifth of the size of Tasmania) isn't the reason.

I beg to differ Swerve. On objective grounds the physical size of Qatar, a geographically tiny peninsula country with the population of Greater Brisbane and a 1/3rd less land area, has as many long range heavy strategic transport aircraft as the RAAF and the RAF is to me highly questionable.

However, the cynic in me when turning to the subjective (ir)rationale the eight Qatari C-17's it all make perfect sense when considering the personal rivalry and jealousy amongst Royal families of the Gulf states that has emerged over the last 2 decades - the UAE and Qatar in particular. In other words Qatar feeling it needed 8 C-17's reeks of keeping up with the "Al-Jabiri's" had quite a bit to do it when UAE had eight as well.

Israel is a third the size of Tasmania. Does that mean it has no use for its hundreds of operational (& many more in reserve) tanks, aerial tankers, etc.?

The answer would be no - because the question you pose is a double non sequitur.

 

[John Fedup]

Qatar buying the last C-17 whitetails no doubt encouraged Boeing’s lobbing efforts for Qatar’s F-15 SE purchase.

 

[south]

Hardly a glowing endorsement.

Airbus says 'new deal on A400M' with buyers will limit future losses (by removing and delaying capabilities)

I find this thread to be an interesting read on the state of A400...

A400M

Personally if it did what it said it could on the sales brochure I think it would be a great fit for NZ.

I’m just not sure that it is all that it is sold as.