Philippine Navy Discussion and Updates

[icefrog]

Seriously, the Philippines is not ready for any type of submarines now or 2 to 3 years from now. I think (IMHO) they would probably be ready to dive-in into this new class of naval armament in 6 to 8 years? Just like somebody stated, there is so much preparation for submarine operations. The Phippine navy will be lucky if their sailors are proficient to operate the ships that they're planning to acquire now in the next 2 or 3 years. It takes time to be proficient in operating more modern ships. I think it is taking at least 6 months for Philippine sailors to learn how to operate those Hamiltons and those ships are at least 40+ years old.

And I agree. I really don't know where that someone got an idea that PH is diving in into it just like that. I think I did not fail to mention that what they are thinking is around 2020 - about the time frame you gave.

Really, I do not know where people got the idea that it will not take time for training, preparations and the necessary infrastructures. Just the delivery time will take years if they choose to buy new but if they intend to get 2nd-hands or they are targetting a particular 2nd-hand sub from another country it's also wise to tell that particular country that they are interested as to have those inspected and if deemed feasible and not a waste of money to have those units reserved and stored for them before it gets scrapped or converted to trainer subs.

Also, if those 2nd-hand subs still contains classified technology then the OEM can get rid those technology before they transfer them into another country. That is just common sense. That is if they still classify those as classified technology rather than obsolete. This is as much as the same as export variants of German and Russian subs does not contain classified technology in them that Germany and Russians uses. I though this was already understood but I guess I was wrong.

 

[Zhaow]

That's why if the Philippine Navy REALLY wanted to get into the SSK submarine game by 2020, they would have to really do the Vietnam program and follow the Vietnam in getting SSK's. It's not only getting SSK submarines, it's also investing and building infrastructure to support those SSK submarines. It's getting the training and building in-house training to support those SSK submarines. If the Philippine Navy wanted SSK's 3 to 4 would be good enough for them. I do have doubts that the Philippine Navy can handle SSK submarines right now, unless they pay South Korea, Russia or Europe to build, and train their crews.

If I were to make a wager, I would bet a used South Korean Type 209 or a used Russian Kilo class SSK would be available for the Philippine Navy by 2020. That's if they have all the things that Vietnam is doing to get their Kilo class SSK.

 

[Zhaow]

And I agree. I really don't know where that someone got an idea that PH is diving in into it just like that. I think I did not fail to mention that what they are thinking is around 2020 - about the time frame you gave.

Really, I do not know where people got the idea that it will not take time for training, preparations and the necessary infrastructures. Just the delivery time will take years if they choose to buy new but if they intend to get 2nd-hands or they are targetting a particular 2nd-hand sub from another country it's also wise to tell that particular country that they are interested as to have those inspected and if deemed feasible and not a waste of money to have those units reserved and stored for them before it gets scrapped or converted to trainer subs.

Also, if those 2nd-hand subs still contains classified technology then the OEM can get rid those technology before they transfer them into another country. That is just common sense. That is if they still classify those as classified technology rather than obsolete. This is as much as the same as export variants of German and Russian subs does not contain classified technology in them that Germany and Russians uses. I though this was already understood but I guess I was wrong.

If the Philippine Navy really wanted to get in on the SSK program and money was tight, my bet would be that they can look at a second hand Type 209 from South Korea or look to Russia and get in on either a used Kilo class SSK or newer versions of the Kilo class SSK or the export version of the Amur class SSK. They would have to look at it now, to get an SSK submarine running in 8 yrs by 2020.

 

[dazzerler1]

If the Philippine Navy really wanted to get in on the SSK program and money was tight, my bet would be that they can look at a second hand Type 209 from South Korea or look to Russia and get in on either a used Kilo class SSK or newer versions of the Kilo class SSK or the export version of the Amur class SSK. They would have to look at it now, to get an SSK submarine running in 8 yrs by 2020.

I have the impression that you seem to think that the Philippine Navy Brass and Government officials don't know what it takes to establish an submarine program? I also think that there is no one way, program or process for them to follow so they don't have to copy what vietnam is doing? In due time, not now, the will figure out what they truly need and what timeframe they will start to acquire submarine and more advanced capabilities. They need basic military materiel at this time just to have a credible deterrence.

 

[Ananda]

They have been studying it for a long-time and their original time-line is 2020. Part of their study is it worth buying 2nd-hand subs and specifically mentioned a certain un-named south-east asian country that spent so much on those 2nd-hand subs they bought that it came out as if like buying a brand-new one. They don't want to make that same mistake. That is a mistake (whether that country admits it or not) that only rich countries can afford to make.

By doing so, that un-named country able to get a deal for more technology and know how for their domestic facilities in supporting their Subs. I can't say this is a mistake. They have budget to do that, and they choose to do the kind of thing that another country with much less budget can only dream to do.

Again it's just to emphasize that in order to operated effective submarine forces you need a big budget to prepared. Even buying brand new submarine however without sufficient budget to prepared your other infrastructure including your own shipyard for maintenance will only add to another expensive budget for overseas support.

 

[SpartanSG]

This is exactly what I am trying to drive at. Thank you.

Here's the thing, those countries with smaller economies (GDP) as compared to the Philippines that are operating submarines have committed the resources to acquire that capability in the long term.

Does the Philippine government have the political will to do like-wise?

The political will is the most important thing that I see the Philippines government needs, and which unfortunately was missing until very recently. Otherwise, why wait until Scarborough Shoal to go on a military modernisation spree? Why wasn't it done after Mischief Reef in 1994?

Philippines is also only going to buy smaller-displacement subs and it need not be sophisticated subs. They will not buy a fleet of 6 either and more likely to start with just 1-2 littoral submarines.

There are also so-called "budget" or entry-level submarines such as the French Andrasta and Germany's type 210mod both of w/c are being priced around the $200-250M price-range.

How much did each of the Hamilton cutters cost?

If you look at the Philippines planned defence budget for 2012, it is an 81% increase from 2011 to ~US$2.3 billion. Is US$2.3 billion a sustainable military budget for the Philippines government for the next 10 years? Or will the defence budget fall in 2013?

If the budget is not sustainable, than hardware modernisation becomes an issue, much less acquiring new capabilities (like submarines).

 

[STURM]

A year ago the debate in Thailand was to either buy 4-6 2nd-hand submarines from Germany or just 2 brand-new subs from South Korea.

The first offer came from China in the late 1980's, for Romeos at 'friendship prices'. The offer for Type 206s - U-22, U-23, U-34 and U-25- was first made about 5 years ago before they were retired from Bundersmarine service. After failing to sell the Royal Malaysian Navy [RMN] the former Zwaardis and Tigerhaai - boat of which were deck lifted to Malaysia - were also offered to Thailand by RDM. Kockums has also been pushing for its subs and top RTN officials were present at the commissioning ceremony of HMS Gotland in 1995. Thailand was actually the 1st submarine operator in the region and up to the early 1950's still operated a batch of Mitsubishi built subs that were delivered in the late 1930's.

 

[icefrog]

Here's the thing, those countries with smaller economies (GDP) as compared to the Philippines that are operating submarines have committed the resources to acquire that capability in the long term.

Does the Philippine government have the political will to do like-wise?

The political will is the most important thing that I see the Philippines government needs, and which unfortunately was missing until very recently. Otherwise, why wait until Scarborough Shoal to go on a military modernisation spree? Why wasn't it done after Mischief Reef in 1994?



How much did each of the Hamilton cutters cost?

If you look at the Philippines planned defence budget for 2012, it is an 81% increase from 2011 to ~US$2.3 billion. Is US$2.3 billion a sustainable military budget for the Philippines government for the next 10 years? Or will the defence budget fall in 2013?

If the budget is not sustainable, than hardware modernisation becomes an issue, much less acquiring new capabilities (like submarines).

We are not talking about 2012 or even 2013. We are talking about 2020 or so. And yes they will soon get the necessary budget of at least $10B. They will not be been thinking of subs and if it's feasible if they know a big budget is not going to be allocated. You should have done more research before jumping in.

They are not going for sophisticated subs with AIP, etc... They are not buying a fleet of 6 subs like Vietnam did either. They are going for small, less complex subs and in small quantity meant for littoral patrols.

 

[icefrog]

By doing so, that un-named country able to get a deal for more technology and know how for their domestic facilities in supporting their Subs.b] I can't say this is a mistake.[/ They have budget to do that, and they choose to do the kind of thing that another country with much less budget can only dream to do.

Again it's just to emphasize that in order to operated effective submarine forces you need a big budget to prepared. Even buying brand new submarine however without sufficient budget to prepared your other infrastructure including your own shipyard for maintenance will only add to another expensive budget for overseas support.

That's your opinion and I respect it but I don't have to agree with it. There's always two sides to things. Your country just bought 24 refurbished F-16s w/c in your Government's opinion is a good deal. However, if other countries thinks it's not then you really can't blame them either. They have an opinion but it's still just an opinion but should be respected nonetheless and it is still your money. You can do whatever with it. Same with the "un-named" SEA country that bought those 2nd-hand subs.

 

[Zhaow]

I have the impression that you seem to think that the Philippine Navy Brass and Government officials don't know what it takes to establish an submarine program? I also think that there is no one way, program or process for them to follow so they don't have to copy what vietnam is doing? In due time, not now, the will figure out what they truly need and what timeframe they will start to acquire submarine and more advanced capabilities. They need basic military materiel at this time just to have a credible deterrence.

Look at what Vietnam is doing to get ready for SSK's. Just like having a baby, they are preparing for the arrival of their SSK fleet. They are sending crews to Russia to train on the Kilo SSK. They are preparing for bases and infrastructure to support the SSK fleet.They are training to have in-house training and support.

The same thing the Philippines can do as well. They can buy 2nd hand SSK's or buy Russian Kilo class SSK's, which takes time to build. At the same time, build up an infrastructure to support SSK submarines.

If I were to make a bet, I would bet a Kilo class SSK or a used Type 209 sub would be something the Philippine navy would look at for 2020. For their location, I think a Kilo class SSK would be a perfect match for them because of the Kilo's simplicity of operation and ease of use, if the Russians are training them on Kilo SSK operations.

 

[STURM]

For their location, I think a Kilo class SSK would be a perfect match for them because of the Kilo's simplicity of operation and ease of use, if the Russians are training them on Kilo SSK operations.

What makes you think that a Kilo would provide ''simplicity of operation and ease of use'' in comparison with other designs? And how would the Kilo compare in terms of operating costs - I have no idea, do you? Points to consider is that the Kilo is built for deep water operations - unlike most if not all current Western SSKs - and that many Kilo operators went for the Kilo because they did not have an alternative or because they were already familiar with Russian SSKs. I have nothing against the Kilo but I think we should put things in perspective.

 

[Ananda]

What makes you think that a Kilo would provide ''simplicity of operation and ease of use'' in comparison with other designs? And how would the Kilo compare in terms of operating costs - I have no idea, do you? Points to consider is that the Kilo is built for deep water operations - unlike most if not all current Western SSKs - and that many Kilo operators went for the Kilo because they did not have an alternative or because they were already familiar with Russian SSKs. I have nothing against the Kilo but I think we should put things in perspective.

STURM, I believe what I've bold in your post, is the main reason for any nation that currently or potentially will be using Kilo's. Like you said, Kilo's is a good design, but from info coming from our Min-def after assessing Kilo's it will take too much adjustment and more Investment too maintain both 209 and Kilo. Thus this is in my book one of the main reason TNI-AL decision for getting more 209 rather than maintain mix 209 and Kilo fleet.

So far only India that seems willing to maintain mix Russian and Western design subs on their fleet. But India is in different ball park in term of Budget capability compared with the rest of developing Asian nation.

That's you opinion and I respect it but I don't have to agree with it. There's always two sides to things. You country just bought 24 refurnished F-16s w/c in your Government's opinions is a good deal. However, if other countries thinks it's not then you really can't blame them either.

Thanks for your understanding. Hope in the future post you also not jump to blame other nation decision as a 'mistake' or 'headache' as your previous posts suggested, without first understanding why they decided that action first.

 

[STURM]

So far only India that seems willing to maintain mix Russian and Western design subs on their fleet. But India is in different ball park in term of Budget capability compared with the rest of developing Asian nation.

India's decision - from what I've read in an Indian military blog - to acquire Kilos when it was able to obtain Western designs [and it did], was highly political. Its interesting to note that though great reliance is placed on the Russians for nuclear submarine technology, such as with the ATV and the leasing of the Akula, the IN placed an order for 6 Scorpenes rather than Amurs. With regards to the PN, a design for littoral work, like the Scorpene or others, would be much better suited than a larger ocean going SSK like the Kilo. Also, though operating both Kilos and Type 209s would be a logistics nightmare, we also have no idea as to how the Kilo or even the Amur would compare to a Western design, in terms of long term operating costs.

 

[Zhaow]

If any of you read any books on Kilo Class SSK. A Kilo class SSK is liken to the Volkswagen of the Submarine world. It runs on Diesel electric and doesn't have the AIP technology that is found on most western SSK submarines. If you look at the price comparison of a Diesel electric SSK vs a AIP SSK. I think a Diesel electric SSK would be cheaper than a AIP SSK. Don't get me wrong, a Kilo class SSK is very nice and if I were the Philippines and i were buying kilo class SSK's I would want the more newer versions and see if I can add AIP.

Don't get me wrong, a Kilo is a good design and for the Philippines that have deep parts of their territorial waters, a Kilo class SSK would be good for them. On top of that, is a rugged design and it's simplicity that lets beginners in on the SSK submarine community.

A kilo class SSK is nice, but I don't think the Philippines can afford any 2nd hand SSK or the New Russian Lada or Amur class SSK. The only think the Philippines can possibly get are Russian Kilo SSK's that are put in Reserve or in the fleet right now.

As far as the preparation process, it would take years for them to be SSK ready. It would mean years of infrastructure preparation and technical preparation. At the same time sending crews out to get submarine trained.

 

[Zhaow]

India's decision - from what I've read in an Indian military blog - to acquire Kilos when it was able to obtain Western designs [and it did], was highly political. Its interesting to note that though great reliance is placed on the Russians for nuclear submarine technology, such as with the ATV and the leasing of the Akula, the IN placed an order for 6 Scorpenes rather than Amurs. With regards to the PN, a design for littoral work, like the Scorpene or others, would be much better suited than a larger ocean going SSK like the Kilo. Also, though operating both Kilos and Type 209s would be a logistics nightmare, we also have no idea as to how the Kilo or even the Amur would compare to a Western design, in terms of long term operating costs.

Question, can the Philippines afford the Scorpenes's sail away price tag. How dose the Scorpenes price tag compare to the Kilo, Lada or Amur's price tag.

 

[STURM]

If any of you read any books on Kilo Class SSK. A Kilo class SSK is liken to the Volkswagen of the Submarine world. It runs on Diesel electric and doesn't have the AIP technology that is found on most western SSK submarines. If you look at the price comparison of a Diesel electric SSK vs a AIP SSK. I think a Diesel electric SSK would be cheaper than a AIP SSK.

And used Type-209s have AIP? Why are all this talk about AIP when a customer could easily choose to procure a current Western design without the option of AIP? And off course a SSK without an AIP would be cheaper than with one with an AIP module fitted. Despite what has been written about the Kilo we still don't know how it compares to Western SSKs in terms of long teerm cost effectiveness. One of the few navies that can tell us is the IN which operates Kilos and Type-209s but it hasn't publicy stated anything. Thus, your statement that the Kilo provides ''simplicity of operation and ease of use'' is pure speculation!! Also all this talk about what the PN should buy and what it shouldn't buy, with regards to SSKs, is academic as at present no funds have been alllocated for the purchase of SSKs and the priority is to get additional surface hulls.

The only think the Philippines can possibly get are Russian Kilo SSK's that are put in Reserve or in the fleet right now.

You are mistaken. I can name a number of countries that would be able to supply the PN with used Western designed SSKs if indeed there was a requirement.

 

[Ananda]

India's decision - from what I've read in an Indian military blog - to acquire Kilos when it was able to obtain Western designs [and it did], was highly political. Its interesting to note that though great reliance is placed on the Russians for nuclear submarine technology, such as with the ATV and the leasing of the Akula, the IN placed an order for 6 Scorpenes rather than Amurs. With regards to the PN, a design for littoral work, like the Scorpene or others, would be much better suited than a larger ocean going SSK like the Kilo. Also, though operating both Kilos and Type 209s would be a logistics nightmare, we also have no idea as to how the Kilo or even the Amur would compare to a Western design, in terms of long term operating costs.

I have to admit, I did not have reliable data that can show comparison on Kilo's or Amur long term operational costs compared to western Design. From what I gather so far, comparing them is much also depend on supporting Infrastructure. In sense when TNI-AL reviewing Kilo, they come to conclusions that much of their current Submarine support infrastructure (including soft infrastructure/human support) has to be modified since most are geared for Western/Nato standard equipment. For example, their logistics warehousing need to be adjusted since some different method has to be apply for Russian equipment safe keeping compared to Western one. It's not on which one is more expensive, but in short they have to prepared two set of standard for everything from warehousing to sub preparations.

TNI-AL already made those changes before when they were switching from Whiskey to 209 in the 80's. Thus some of voices that come out from Min-def questions the need of maintaining submarine of Russian origin again. For that I do believe for any Navy that not used to maintain Russian equipment, will have difficulty on servicing Kilo, even though their budget able to procured a new Kilo. Vietnam will have much less adjustment since their equipment already from Russian origin, thus their soft and hard infrastructure able to adjust much faster and easier.

In short, in my opinion for Vietnam (as example) Kilo will be more economical to serviced in the long run, While for Indonesia, western design like 209 will be the more economical one.

 

[icefrog]

STURM, I believe what I've bold in your post, is the main reason for any nation that currently or potentially will be using Kilo's. Like you said, Kilo's is a good design, but from info coming from our Min-def after assessing Kilo's it will take too much adjustment and more Investment too maintain both 209 and Kilo. Thus this is in my book one of the main reason TNI-AL decision for getting more 209 rather than maintain mix 209 and Kilo fleet.

So far only India that seems willing to maintain mix Russian and Western design subs on their fleet. But India is in different ball park in term of Budget capability compared with the rest of developing Asian nation.



Thanks for your understanding. Hope in the future post you also not jump to blame other nation decision as a 'mistake' or 'headache' as your previous posts suggested, without first understanding why they decided that action first.

I stand by my opinion and I don't blame them. Why would I do that? That's their money and they can do whatever they want with it. Never said it and never implied it.

However, people still have a right to criticize it as much as people have criticized Indonesia for buying those refurbished F-16s. Same way some public opinions from your own people has criticized it and even labeled those F-16s as junk and a waste of money.

[Mod edit: Various senior members have tried to steer the conversation back on track in this thread but you continue to hold fast to your fortress of mistaken beliefs. The quality of your posts is falling below a sensible threshold and again another senior member is telling you, that you are wrong. Learn to listen and provide sources for your facts.]

 

[icefrog]

Question, can the Philippines afford the Scorpenes's sail away price tag. How dose the Scorpenes price tag compare to the Kilo, Lada or Amur's price tag.

Scorpenes? Most likely not. Only the Amur is for export. The Lada is not meant for export and for Russia only as it contains classified technology - the Amur is the one meant for export. Export variants are usually watered down versions of what the country of origin has.

What Philippines can possibly go for besides the French Andrasta and German type 210mod that was specifically created as a "budget" or "entry-level" submarine for countries that has no experience in operating submarines and current operators that would rather buy new than make costly modernizations and refurbishments that usually ends up costing as much as buying a brand-new sub. They can also probably go for 2 Korean-made type 209-1400 and Russian subs that are on the same price range or even slightly cheaper. Then there is the 2nd-hand market they can look into but they are very aware that some 2nd-hand subs are not worth refurbishing and modernizing anymore.

 

[Zhaow]

Scorpenes? Most likely not. Only the Amur is for export. The Lada is not meant for export and for Russia only as it contains classified technology - the Amur is the one meant for export. Export variants are usually watered down versions of what the country of origin has.

What Philippines can possibly go for besides the French Andrasta and German type 210mod that was specifically created as a "budget" or "entry-level" submarine for countries that has no experience in operating submarines and current operators that would rather buy new than make costly modernizations and refurbishments that usually ends up costing as much as buying a brand-new sub. They can also probably go for 2 Korean-made type 209-1400 and Russian subs that are on the same price range or even slightly cheaper. Then there is the 2nd-hand market they can look into but they are very aware that some 2nd-hand subs are not worth refurbishing and modernizing anymore.

If you were to compare a Kilo SSK to a Type 209 SSK, what would be the difference between the two. I know the Kilo SSK and Type 209 SSK near the same price, how much would they cost when you sail away from the pier. I know the Kilo class SSK is still in production and Philippines could jump in on the Kilo SSK production because Russia is still building Kilo class SSK's for anyone. Though I have to ask, is the Type 209 still in production or have they switched to Type 212 or 214.