A cautious and incrementalist America
1. In Nov 2019, it was reported that
Jordan donated 2 Bell AH-1 Cobra gunships to the the Philippines. IMHO, the Pinoys cannot afford the Bell AH-1Z Viper (without foreign financing).
2. At this point, I just want the Philippines to make up their minds. If they want to cancel the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US, please go ahead.
(a) I am guessing the greedy Pinoys are hoping to be gifted the recently retired AH-1W (by talking about cancelling the VFA again).
(b) In Oct 2020, the last two-bladed main rotor Whisky Cobra in US Marines service was succeeded by the four-bladed AH-1Z Viper. There is a large fleet of Whisky Cobras that could potentially be sold off as surplus to a foreign buyer, or donated via foreign military aid initiatives. Of course any sale, or gift for that matter, would have to be approved by the U.S. State Department.
Its also possible the US simply refuse because they want to sell the AH-1 Cobra to the Philipines.
3. After 20 Jan 2021, I can count on Blinken (President-elect Biden's choice to be the next US Secretary of State) to: (i) be competent (by attending ASEAN meetings); and (ii) present a compassionate face (but to act as realists to protect American interests). This means putting a stop the T-129B sale (unless a reset with Turkey is planned).
(a) I expect American concerns with human rights and humanitarian efforts to return to the foreground — there will be renewed bipartisan commitment to recentering human rights concerns in U.S. weapons transfers, as well as accountability for past misuse of weapons — resulting in 2021 tensions with Duterte.
(b) The Democratic centrists in Biden’s team believe in careful management of the post-Cold War order. They are cautious and incrementalist. They will stand up to China but will not want to define their strategy as a great power competition. Within Biden’s foreign policy team, there is an ongoing debate among Democratic centrists about the future of U.S. foreign policy; and many favor a foreign policy broadly consistent with that of President Barack Obama.
(c) They maintain high hopes for bilateral cooperation with Beijing on climate change, global public health, and other issues — which means space to trade away Pinoy interests, to gain in other areas.
(d) In July 2020, more than 30 progressive groups sent a
letter to Biden urging him to select foreign policy personnel in a manner that would “challenge the institutions and groupthink that have led to a disastrous, overly-militarized, unilateral approach to foreign affairs” of past administrations.
Kate Kizer, policy director for Win Without War, a progressive foreign policy organization that signed the letter, said the recent UAE arms sale is a good place to start. “President-elect Biden has promised to chart a different path than Trump, and we’re hopeful that he starts by immediately undoing as many of the just-notified sales to the UAE...”
4. There is nothing independent about President Duterte’s foreign policy — he is just a Chinese puppet. His remark that he would scrap the VFA, if the US does not supply the Philippines with COVID-19 vaccines, by saying it was in line with his independent foreign policy, is a choice that I welcome. Duterte’s choice is policy until 30 June 2022, when his term ends.
5. It is time to drop dead weight until the end of Duterte’s term in the Philippines. That way, the Americans can focus their resources in 2021 and 2022 on real allies and partners. Biden’s incoming foreign policy team, under Antony Blinken, is unlikely to welcome the latest silly move by Duterte, in an attempt to force Blinken’s hand even before Biden’s team takes office.
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