ajaybhutani said:
fighter jets arent purchased by looking at popularity but at the doctrine.
pakistan has already faced sanctions from US with orders cut down considerably.. theres no guarantee that this wont happen in the future.. and again pakistan is not in a condition to purchase all the tech from US too.. So i dont see it as a good decision to even go for the deal if theres a fear of sanctions in the medium future.
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J10 is still a new plane. not much is known to the outside world about this plane. furthermore with such a large no of planes to replace i double china can spare its j10 production for someone else at least for the near future.
Certainlu jets arent purchased on popularity basis, but the best reason for PAF to go for F-16 is the experiene in flying and in combat. They have pitched the F-16s successfuly against the Afghans and Soviets.
Also it is not a game of deff and dumb. In past US impossed sanctions temp. period of time and in 1997-98 after Nawaz Sharif asured democratic government that Pakistan wont be pursuing nuclear weapons, Clinton removed the sanctions from F-16 purchase. However, as a last resort to Indian threat of nuclear war Nawaz moved to test nukes and F-16 ban was re-impossed. That was dumb move by Nawaz but their were no alternatives to it.
Today, the situation is different. When Bush removed ban from F-16, Pakistan asked for future security. In reply Bush said Pakistan can buy as many F-16s as it wants and once the deal is signed he will provide congressional security. The threat that democrats will come to power and re-impose ban on Pakistan's purchase of F-16s seems to be virtualy invisible. Democrats and US Senate are now more concerned over India-US nuclear deal, incase if u have not noticed. Even John Kerry says he is against it and the deal is threat to peace in South Asia. India is now virtualy in a possition where Pakistan was in 1990s. Even former British Prime minister, John Howard, said that India will make a bomb out US nuclear technology within 3 yrs after the establishment of the facility. In addition, the Canadian PM said he will put a bil in parliment to end Nuclear cooporation with India that was signed by previous govt, as India may use it for military purpose. Once the govts in US and UK change, the attention would be more towards Indian nuclear program than towards Pakistan.
If Pakistan successfuly manuvers these scenerios, Indian deal on nuclear facility and future deals on purchase of US fighters like F-16 and F-18 can go in Jeopardy.
From where I stand, Pakistan is in safe possition for buying US technology. Besides US has a deal with Pakistan on "2nd hand stuff goes free" with Pakistan. The war on terror is not over and India, the so called another major allie against war on terror, has done nothing at all. It has captured no terrorists in over 57 yrs and no one expects it to do so in future. Pakistan's score in war in terror is highest than any ones. Probably more than that of US but Pakistan is also loosing much of its resources. Amazingly it have been UK conservatives and US Democrates who have been Sympathetic to Pakistan's loss. These Parties seemed to be more pro-Indian than Pakistan in the past and currently these parties are gaining more powers and preferance in their respective countries. Incase u havent been in touch with International news, alot of influencial members of conservative party and Democratic party have visited Pakistan in 3 yrs, even though they are not in power. Funny thing is even the october Earth Quake is inviting more possitive attitude towards Pakistan. Even under the labour party, UK is not possing a wall against Pakistan's "wish" to purchase EF-2000. The Sweds are not denying Gripen to Pakistan out right and all are on the table.
You must be woundering why I am paying more attention to India than US-Pak relations. Its quite simple. The concern that Clinton conveyed to Nawaz Sharif was that
"We are concerned that you might use F-16s to drop Nukes over India" Today India has nukes and Pakistan doesnt require fighter jets to carry nukes. The concerns which were put in words by clinton, today are not-valid or void. Hence i dnt see any reason for US to re-impose senctions on Pakistan's F-16 purchase.
The major reason for Pakistan for to buy J-10 is "CHINA." For china to become regional super power it is essential for them to influence the countries in region, especially in terms of MILITARY. And Pakistan wants to make sure that Chinese dream becomes a reality. Therefore, excepting and introducing Chinese high-tech, state-of-the art in region is essantial. Pakistan is china's gateway in South Asia and ME. and in terms of military Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have signed a defence deal with Pakistan. It is for sure they will be buying Pakistan modified Chinese weapons. J-10 is just not a step to fill the gap in PAF's "needs" but rather more a political and diplomatic moved complied not by Pakistan alone but china also. Also reducing the number of F-16s in favor of J-10, will fore US to promiss more security.