NZDF General discussion thread

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I fully take on board all your points, which of course appear completely right in respect of any terrorist-type scenario. I think there could be value in thinking through the implications of a direct State-backed subversive strike - in the context of a scenario whereby access to unpolluted (relatively) farmland and maritime resources are extremely valuable resources to an undemocratic governing elite with no qualms about using military force.
For example - institute a scheduled (heavily subsidised) air service to Auckland under the control of a national carrier. At some point, surreptiously replace a commercial passenger loading with a special forces group (including a contingent of specially trained pilots and aircrew), and undertake two 'emergency landings' at Whenuapai and Ohakea RNZAF bases.
Even a rough landing by the end of the runways would still deliver overwhelming military force, given neither base would have warning to alert mobile armoured or air defence forces.
Use the available air mobility assets at each base to rapidly move force components to take over Linton's LAVIIIs and the weapons stored at Waiouru. Use the Seasprites to strike the Papakura SAS base, loading Maverick-type missiles.
Sure, major problems in logistic sustainment - and assumes no Aust or USA intervention - but the invader would have air and armoured dominance by taking control of local assets, and by eliminating most local military hardware. Fully expect resistance by NZ personnel, but they would operate at an immediate disadvantage without LAVs, Javelin, or Mistral (or much ammunition). Invader simply flies in more personnel and supplies to suit...
Honestly, I find this scenario questionable at best. What has been outlined sounds more like a plot line for scenes in a Hollywood action movie.

For starters, my assumptions about a scheduled airliner being used as the transport/entry vehicle made the issue of state or non-state actor moot. Everyone aboard the flight would have been involved and had access to small arms.

Secondly, the idea of a "civilian" airliner declaring an emergency and then landing at two RNZAF bases to launch attacks is IMO unrealistic. If an aircraft declares an emergency, they would get directed to which airfield to land at, the pilot cannot just decide to head to a RNZAF base to land. Also, emergency vehicles would approach and surround a landed aircraft that declared an emergency at a civilian field, at a military base I would also expect armed personnel as escorts. So that puts something like an A330-300 with ~300 armed attacker aboard sitting out on a tarmac somewhere, surrounded by emergency vehicles and possibly a few military vehicles mounting HMG's. In order for the people aboard the airliner to actually start their attack, they need to exit the jet which will be a problem unless they are at a terminal, which they would not be if they declared an emergency. The cabin of something like an A330 is ~5m above the ground which is too far to jump safely, especially if carrying equipment, weapons, and munitions. Also on an A330, there are only four exits on each side, which would limit how quickly people could exit. Now the emergency slides could be activated to help get the troops aboard down quickly, that just gets them to the ground around the aircraft, and they would be hard pressed to conceal the presence of small arms, unless they only came armed with pistols and other concealed weapons. If the field had armed escorts, like airfield defence guards in Land Rovers with HMG's mounted, any landing troops could/would be chewed up, and troops still aboard the plane would quickly start taking fire.

Now assuming this occurred at Auckland Airport, so that the airliner did not immediately start taking fire as soon as armed passengers started being disgorged, the passengers would be on foot and likely 1 km of open tarmac & grass to cross before reaching the edge of the airport buildings. Then they would either have another 500 m or more before reaching vehicle transportation if able to enter and pass through the buildings, or need to run all the way around the buildings before getting access to vehicle parking. Then they would need to either hijack or break into vehicles before they could start driving away...

OTOH if they were able to land at Whenuapai and not immediately begin taking fire, they would still have several hundred metres of open ground to cross before reaching either buildings or vehicle lots. If they made it this far, then the personnel might be able to disable or destroyer NZDF weapon, aircraft, and vehicles, but I seriously doubt they would be able to commandeer any, at least not in any quantity.

Using the Seasprites as an example, first they would need to gain physical access to them, which means breaking into their hangars, and doing so in a manner which would not keep the attackers from being able to open the hangar doors to roll the helicopters out. Second, the attackers would need to have pilots/crew that are checked out in that model Seasprite, otherwise they would be hard pressed (or likely just unable altogether) to turn the engines on or operate the weapons and other systems. Third, the attackers without considerable intel from/about the base would not know which Seasprites are available for operations, which need fueling, which have parts missing for maintenance, etc. It would be entirely possible for a would-be Seasprite crew to get into a helicopter, only to find out the engine will not start because all the fluids have been drained from it for maintenance. Fourth, if the first three mentioned issues were all successfully overcome, the Seasprite would still need to be armed, since militaries do not leave parked aircraft and vehicles loaded with munitions sitting around (outside of a hotpad). Getting into any munitions bunker would be difficult, as those building are designed for restricted access. Getting munitions out and to any vehicles or aircraft would also be an issue due to weight, bulk, and the potential hazards handling live ordnance normally presents.

The issues I outlined for the Seasprites would also apply to other military aircraft and vehicles.

At this time, I do not really see a need to go into the issues a single aircraft would have attempting to make two different "emergency" landings at airfields ~350 km apart so that troops could be landed to launch surprise attacks. Similarly, given the difficulties the attacking personnel would likely have attempting to commandeer NZDF kit, assuming they even made it that far, I see little reason to go into the practical issues attempting to launch additional attacks upon other NZDF bases.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
It's time to bring the discussion back to reality instead of remote what if scenarios.
Quite agree with that as possible scenarios are just about endless and cherry picking one or two will miss the overall picture. we really don't know what the future may or may not bring.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
A point I would make in regard to defence in general is that while we can look at the past and say that this or that should have been seen, like the Falklands war, the reality is they are not seen and have in the past not been seen "hind sight is great is it not." The problem is that different tensions come and go at regular intervals with nothing happening (Take for instance G.B./Gibraltar and Spain which has been going on for several hundred years.) so it is very hard to identify what will spill over into armed conflict, when most don't.
The simple fact is that No country has in modern history predicted a threat to them selves in time to rearm to meet that threat, they have either already had significant defence available or suffered.
And to those who find my english a little difficult, I apologise as it was never a strong subject of mine at school and I have mild dyslexia, which does complicate things a little.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The simple fact is that No country has in modern history predicted a threat to them selves in time to rearm to meet that threat, they have either already had significant defence available or suffered.
There are a few other simple facts as well. One being that the NZDF has not been resourced sufficiently to independently respond to many threats for close to three decades.

Another related simple fact is that Vote Defence is unlikely to see a dramatic increase in funding & resources, unless or until there is an imminent threat, by which time it will likely be too late.

The next simple fact is that if there is to be a significant change in capabilities for the NZDF, that change is going to come at the expense of other NZDF capabilities.

This in turn leads to one of a handful of situations. Either some way is found to cover all potential threats while staying within available resource limits. Concentrate the available resources on capabilities which can provide the broadest spectrum of available responses. Analyze potential threats to rate both potential impact as well as likelihood of impact, and then structure the NZDF according to the threat matrix.

With what the NZDF has available, I do not see how all capabilities or threats could be covered, there just is not enough resources.

As things stand now with the NZDF, for the most part the current capabilities provide a broad spectrum of responses. IMO not as broad spectrum as I would like, or really in sufficient quantity, but better than attempting to do everything and then doing it poorly.

The NZDF has also considered a threat matrix and adjusted the capabilities accordingly. Take the Mistral MANPADS as an example, which the NZDF has placed in storage rather than continuing to spend funding to keep the capability active and in service. According to analysis, it was sufficiently unlikely for NZ forces on the ground to come under air attack in a situation where a MANPADS would provide a sufficient/appropriate response.

What I consider to be important takeaways that people often seem to forget or disagree with is that before a capability can be either expanded or acquired, something(s) else have to be reduced or eliminated to free up the resources. The other is the importance of the threat matrix to try and quantify potential threats so that their importance in terms of a response is ranked. People might not agree with where a threat falls on the importance ranking, but this is where a case would need to be made for why the threat is of greater or lesser importance.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's time to bring the discussion back to reality instead of remote what if scenarios.
Agree.

Everyone has had their bit to say on the prior discussion and though it has been all very interesting it has got to that tipping point where it is now - "time called gentleman."

Let us all privately ponder the points made without engaging on further scenarios, speculation and hypotheticals.

So for the good conduct of the thread it is time to move on to fresh topics of discussion regarding the NZDF.

Cheers MrC (And please note I am wearing my Mod hat when I say this ;))

 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Having recently checked the NZDF 2015-2016 annual report for some cost figured, I noticed with interest a pie chart at the top right of page 13.

It listed for components for the budget of NZD$2.459 bil. as follows:
  • Capital Charge 18%
  • Depreciation 15%
  • Operating 30%
  • Personnel 37%

That unfortunately corresponds to Vote Defence number crunching I have done periodically over the last ten years where the listed Vote Defence budget was about 30% higher than the actual budget in real terms. Incidentally, I double checked what the NZDF budget for the time period was vs. NZ's approximate GDP (PPP), and the Vote Defence amount was still only ~1% GDP, with the NZDF budget in real terms being an "extravagant" 0.67% GDP.

There might be a notional NZD$20 bil. CAPEX spend available to reach Future35 goals, but it does seem like what will be available for Operating and Personnel expenditures will still be quite limited.

On a potential plus side though, this could drive the NZDF to purchase more upscale kit than is has been, to gain the most capabilities without needing to increase personnel and/or operating costs. An example of what I mean would be like replacing the HMNZS Canterbury MRV with something like an Endurance-class LPD. They are similar in size and crew requirements, but the LPD has a well dock, can carry more troops, and has significantly better offensive, defensive and supporting systems.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Found this tucked away on the MSN news which I cannot give a link.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson told Parliament this afternoon that National failed to put aside the money for its promised big ticket Defence Force upgrade.

This does not look good for the future, is he just lining up the capital spend for a big cut? National is claiming there is plenty of unallocated funds available. though Robertson is claiming a $20B hole.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Found this tucked away on the MSN news which I cannot give a link.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson told Parliament this afternoon that National failed to put aside the money for its promised big ticket Defence Force upgrade.

This does not look good for the future, is he just lining up the capital spend for a big cut? National is claiming there is plenty of unallocated funds available. though Robertson is claiming a $20B hole.

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/345027/govt-accuses-national-of-leaving-20bn-hole



me thinks its just smoke and mirrors to use as a pet project somewhere else a' la Julia Gillard and her abdominal fiscal planning
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Found this tucked away on the MSN news which I cannot give a link.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson told Parliament this afternoon that National failed to put aside the money for its promised big ticket Defence Force upgrade.

This does not look good for the future, is he just lining up the capital spend for a big cut? National is claiming there is plenty of unallocated funds available. though Robertson is claiming a $20B hole.
Yes I saw it on the Radio NZ site. My immediate thought was that the NZDF 20 billion CAPEX is history. It could be some political posturing on the NZG's part.
 

Ocean1Curse

Member
Yes I saw it on the Radio NZ site. My immediate thought was that the NZDF 20 billion CAPEX is history. It could be some political posturing on the NZG's part.
Asked yesterday in the house Roberston replied to Joyce that he intends to raise infrastructure bonds instead of maintain previous debt schedules. I mean establishing as a minimum 1 for 1 replacement of major defence material is the priority.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Asked yesterday in the house Roberston replied to Joyce that he intends to raise infrastructure bonds instead of maintain previous debt schedules. I mean establishing as a minimum 1 for 1 replacement of major defence material is the priority.
We can only hope that the one for one does not mean that the replacement has an inferior capability to the item it replaces
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
We can only hope that the one for one does not mean that the replacement has an inferior capability to the item it replaces
In many instances, I would be worried about the replacement having just an equal capability to that which it was replacing.

Not to be harsh, but if new frigates were ordered which were equal in capability to the planned upgrade for the ANZAC-class FFH's, then that is a wasted opportunity. And if hostilities were to break out, potentially a fatal one.

A similar situation exists with most of the other potential NZDF major capital acquisitions or replacements.
 

Ocean1Curse

Member
For NZDF to dominate technologically and logistically the target must remain at $20bln CAPEX in order to return combat capabilities to RNZAF and maintain expeditionary forces in a balanced and fiscal manner across NZDF while maintaining interoperability with Australia. And I'm quoting both Labour and NZFirst defence policy here (they're on there respective websites).

What's available to purchase on the open market is fairly understood by DT members.

And until we hear otherwise I think it's safe to assume the key focuses will be veterans affairs, cyber security and peacekeeping. Also multiple commitments to the 2016 DWP have been made. What's up for debate is the $20bln CAPEX and let's not forget it's just a number to borrow against. The government isn't going to make huge structural changes to the tax system, what's been talked about most is reducing net core crown debt through less borrowing and the introduction of infrastructure bonds.

I mean I'm pretty optimistic That we New Zealanders can make the target. Whether this triggers more trade and investment I don't know. But we won't be able to grow with out hitting the target. And for good reasons. One reason is domestic logistics capability is stretched. The recent rain event in Roxbugh shows the towns creeks were unable to deal with the event needing some 2000 truck loads of wast to be removed. Up until now New Zealand's infrastructure has been able to cope with events how ever questions remains.

Now we just can't continue operating in this kind of haphazard way and should stack capabilities on top capabilities that are fit for purpose. I'm not suggesting NZDF become a trucking company either. I'm suggesting events are exposing weakness in the economy. NASA scientists claim there's more precipitation in the atmosphere than was predicated and we can quote one of there discussion papers.

"The magnitude of the intensification of extreme precipitation in climatologically heavily precipitating regions might likely be on the higher end of current model prediction."- https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15771

So there's more rain in the atmosphere now questions remain of New Zealand's infrastructure being up for it. Again this is just one example.

In order to achieve the next level up of economic performance it's my opinion the target should remain at $20bln CAPEX.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Yes I saw it on the Radio NZ site. My immediate thought was that the NZDF 20 billion CAPEX is history. It could be some political posturing on the NZG's part.
For this to be raised in parliament I suspect that there will be cutbacks in total spending as if they intended to go for the complete $20B I doubt it would have been raised. We could see a gradual winding back of the capital budget using the excuse that it is all nationals fault because it was not specifically budgeted. For instance we could see the P3 replaced with a simple resources protection aircraft. Time will tell and I hope I am wrong.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
For this to be raised in parliament I suspect that there will be cutbacks in total spending as if they intended to go for the complete $20B I doubt it would have been raised. We could see a gradual winding back of the capital budget using the excuse that it is all nationals fault because it was not specifically budgeted. For instance we could see the P3 replaced with a simple resources protection aircraft. Time will tell and I hope I am wrong.
Yes probably all part of softening up for this... :(

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/99...scal-costs-of-the-100-day-plan-on-december-14
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes I saw it on the Radio NZ site. My immediate thought was that the NZDF 20 billion CAPEX is history. It could be some political posturing on the NZG's part.
Political posturing - of course it is.

NZ does not really have a government at the time - but a kind of Princess Regency - and Winston is the Regent.

He has all the power frankly - he owns the Foreign Affairs and Defence part of the game - good luck to Labour for trying to trim too much of the $20B that NZ First nailed in their coalition agreement.

Robertson is telling porkies and packing a sad as he over promised and thought he could play Santa with Kiwi's own money -these clowns never thought they would actually win - until Winston decided that they were far easier to manipulate or in truth the only ones he could manipulate. Robertson has never run anything other than a Student Union 15 year ago or so and the cold hard bite of a real political-economy is starting to bite.

Other than the P-8 I am not panicking - Frigates selection and other stuff can be years down the track - they will likely go for the C-130J-SOF in the tactical role anyway and I can live with that as the Strat role does not have to be decided until after 2020 anyway when this unfortunate Princess Regency experiment is done with and the adults are back in charge.

I am getting such comic entertainment by the omni-shambles that now exist in Wellington - a real The Thick of It without the charm and street smarts of Malcolm Tucker - it is almost a Shakespearian comic farce.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
I'm a little bit confused here, isn't the forward estimates just planning on government expenditure in the future. its based on money being ring fenced in the future budgets that will go to defence if its policy for said government

this is the part most concerning
The matter is now urgent because New Zealand’s option to purchase four P8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft expires next March.
were they planning to bring forward the P8 purshace as I was under the impression it was late 2020's




http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1241/National-leaves-Labour-with-a-$20-billion-bill-Defence-capital-expenditure-budget-Grant-Robertson-Steven-Joyce.htm?ls-art0=70
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm a little bit confused here, isn't the forward estimates just planning on government expenditure in the future. its based on money being ring fenced in the future budgets that will go to defence if its policy for said government

this is the part most concerning

were they planning to bring forward the P8 purshace as I was under the impression it was late 2020's

http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1241/National-leaves-Labour-with-a-$20-billion-bill-Defence-capital-expenditure-budget-Grant-Robertson-Steven-Joyce.htm?ls-art0=70
They were bringing forward by 5 years the FASC purchase as the line at Renton will close. The issue was that it meant that they would have large CapEx sums going out for the tactical FAMC and FASC during Budget FY 2021. Two big projects in one year.

The $20B was based on forward estimates that were to be ring fenced - but only the detailed stuff in the budgets go out 4 years. The last government has projected strong surpluses and the NZ books are in good shape.

The truth is that it really should have been $25B in my view and will likely ending up that cost anyway post 2020 when normal transmission will resume.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
They were bringing forward by 5 years the FASC purchase as the line at Renton will close. The issue was that it meant that they would have large CapEx sums going out for the tactical FAMC and FASC during Budget FY 2021. Two big projects in one year.

The $20B was based on forward estimates that were to be ring fenced - but only the detailed stuff in the budgets go out 4 years. The last government has projected strong surpluses and the NZ books are in good shape.

The truth is that it really should have been $25B in my view and will likely ending up that cost anyway post 2020 when normal transmission will resume.
Thank you Mr C

Its a pity that you didn't look into buy the ex RAAF C130H fleet in 2013 putting three airframes operational and the last two as spares hulk's. Were these aircraft in better serviceable condition compared to the Kiwi birds as Indonesia bought and payed for the five remaining H's refurbished, not sure to what level tho
 
Top