Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Honestly, I find this scenario questionable at best. What has been outlined sounds more like a plot line for scenes in a Hollywood action movie.I fully take on board all your points, which of course appear completely right in respect of any terrorist-type scenario. I think there could be value in thinking through the implications of a direct State-backed subversive strike - in the context of a scenario whereby access to unpolluted (relatively) farmland and maritime resources are extremely valuable resources to an undemocratic governing elite with no qualms about using military force.
For example - institute a scheduled (heavily subsidised) air service to Auckland under the control of a national carrier. At some point, surreptiously replace a commercial passenger loading with a special forces group (including a contingent of specially trained pilots and aircrew), and undertake two 'emergency landings' at Whenuapai and Ohakea RNZAF bases.
Even a rough landing by the end of the runways would still deliver overwhelming military force, given neither base would have warning to alert mobile armoured or air defence forces.
Use the available air mobility assets at each base to rapidly move force components to take over Linton's LAVIIIs and the weapons stored at Waiouru. Use the Seasprites to strike the Papakura SAS base, loading Maverick-type missiles.
Sure, major problems in logistic sustainment - and assumes no Aust or USA intervention - but the invader would have air and armoured dominance by taking control of local assets, and by eliminating most local military hardware. Fully expect resistance by NZ personnel, but they would operate at an immediate disadvantage without LAVs, Javelin, or Mistral (or much ammunition). Invader simply flies in more personnel and supplies to suit...
For starters, my assumptions about a scheduled airliner being used as the transport/entry vehicle made the issue of state or non-state actor moot. Everyone aboard the flight would have been involved and had access to small arms.
Secondly, the idea of a "civilian" airliner declaring an emergency and then landing at two RNZAF bases to launch attacks is IMO unrealistic. If an aircraft declares an emergency, they would get directed to which airfield to land at, the pilot cannot just decide to head to a RNZAF base to land. Also, emergency vehicles would approach and surround a landed aircraft that declared an emergency at a civilian field, at a military base I would also expect armed personnel as escorts. So that puts something like an A330-300 with ~300 armed attacker aboard sitting out on a tarmac somewhere, surrounded by emergency vehicles and possibly a few military vehicles mounting HMG's. In order for the people aboard the airliner to actually start their attack, they need to exit the jet which will be a problem unless they are at a terminal, which they would not be if they declared an emergency. The cabin of something like an A330 is ~5m above the ground which is too far to jump safely, especially if carrying equipment, weapons, and munitions. Also on an A330, there are only four exits on each side, which would limit how quickly people could exit. Now the emergency slides could be activated to help get the troops aboard down quickly, that just gets them to the ground around the aircraft, and they would be hard pressed to conceal the presence of small arms, unless they only came armed with pistols and other concealed weapons. If the field had armed escorts, like airfield defence guards in Land Rovers with HMG's mounted, any landing troops could/would be chewed up, and troops still aboard the plane would quickly start taking fire.
Now assuming this occurred at Auckland Airport, so that the airliner did not immediately start taking fire as soon as armed passengers started being disgorged, the passengers would be on foot and likely 1 km of open tarmac & grass to cross before reaching the edge of the airport buildings. Then they would either have another 500 m or more before reaching vehicle transportation if able to enter and pass through the buildings, or need to run all the way around the buildings before getting access to vehicle parking. Then they would need to either hijack or break into vehicles before they could start driving away...
OTOH if they were able to land at Whenuapai and not immediately begin taking fire, they would still have several hundred metres of open ground to cross before reaching either buildings or vehicle lots. If they made it this far, then the personnel might be able to disable or destroyer NZDF weapon, aircraft, and vehicles, but I seriously doubt they would be able to commandeer any, at least not in any quantity.
Using the Seasprites as an example, first they would need to gain physical access to them, which means breaking into their hangars, and doing so in a manner which would not keep the attackers from being able to open the hangar doors to roll the helicopters out. Second, the attackers would need to have pilots/crew that are checked out in that model Seasprite, otherwise they would be hard pressed (or likely just unable altogether) to turn the engines on or operate the weapons and other systems. Third, the attackers without considerable intel from/about the base would not know which Seasprites are available for operations, which need fueling, which have parts missing for maintenance, etc. It would be entirely possible for a would-be Seasprite crew to get into a helicopter, only to find out the engine will not start because all the fluids have been drained from it for maintenance. Fourth, if the first three mentioned issues were all successfully overcome, the Seasprite would still need to be armed, since militaries do not leave parked aircraft and vehicles loaded with munitions sitting around (outside of a hotpad). Getting into any munitions bunker would be difficult, as those building are designed for restricted access. Getting munitions out and to any vehicles or aircraft would also be an issue due to weight, bulk, and the potential hazards handling live ordnance normally presents.
The issues I outlined for the Seasprites would also apply to other military aircraft and vehicles.
At this time, I do not really see a need to go into the issues a single aircraft would have attempting to make two different "emergency" landings at airfields ~350 km apart so that troops could be landed to launch surprise attacks. Similarly, given the difficulties the attacking personnel would likely have attempting to commandeer NZDF kit, assuming they even made it that far, I see little reason to go into the practical issues attempting to launch additional attacks upon other NZDF bases.