The German state i live in currently effectively assumes infection to make you immune for only 3 months where non-mainstream variants are concerned. Before British Covid spread around it was 6 months btw. The timespan is how long previous infection will exempt you from mandatory quarantine on returning from VoC high-risk countries (currently: Brazil, most countries in the South of Africa and the French department of Moselle neighboring Germany). Vaccination does not exempt you at all btw.
New Coronavirus threat
- Thread starter John Fedup
- Start date
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #762
Just further information confirming that a return to normal international travel won’t be happening soon. Commercial aviation is going to suffer for years IMO. Canadian domestic flight availability is reduced and prices are up. Zooming is looking better every day.
It's more political than anything else. They don't want to upset Beijing. They're to scared to upset the apple cart and they appear to have an anti Australian foreign policy, much the same as Helen Clark had. That's going to negatively impact upon our defence and security relationship, not only with Australia, but also with the US.
recce.k1
Well-Known Member
Hmm maybe (although that's not the official NZG's view on Australia ... PM Ardern describes the NZ-Aust relationship as "strong" and "excellent" as per NZ media reports, which doesn't quite fit an "anti Australian" narrative. The only "anti Australian" sentiment that is obvious at NZG levels is the "501" situation, that of Australia deporting NZ born criminals which in amongst the hardened criminals appear to have been a number of people kicked out for seemingly trivial i.e. minor crime reasons, which then makes the "bleeding heart" newsheadlines and usually on cue, a "frowny faced, tilted head" PM Ardern appears, to shore up her public image as a "compassionate" PM. It's somewhat theatrical, at times, but anyway) ... or maybe instead, I'd be more inclined to agree with a variation of Hanlon's Razor which is "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence"!
According to respected political reporters inside the beltway writing for Point of Order, the (NZ) Ministry of Health is being typically slow to respond to the 15 countries’ joint statement (on the WHO Study), as they are "apparently", "focused on defeating Covid, hadn’t the chance to study the document."
Judging by the occasional odd comment on other political blogs (made by other health professionals posting anonymously) they do tend to knock the MoH as being unresponsive, reactionary, seemingly incompetent at times (eg flu vaccine shortages last year etc) and basically a nightmare to deal with.
Furthermore, presumably when MoH gets it's act together (over the "15 countries joint statement") and briefs the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Point of Order curiously mentions "we are told it takes five days to prepare and issue joint ministerial statements". Perhaps this explains the absence of a formal NZ statement being issued in a timely manner in support of the "15 countries joint statement" etc?
But wait there's more. Without wishing to denigrate our (NZ) Minister of Foreign Affairs (Nania Mahuta), there has been a fair amount of (occasional) criticism of Ms Mahuta over the years since she entered Parliament in 1996, by the Opposition (and some media commentators) so perhaps somewhat partisan, that she hadn't achieved much over these years and has been slighted as being "lazy". (To be fair I think she has been quite active within Maoridom and working on those related issues, so perhaps just not more "mainstream" issues hence the "euro-centric" criticism? It was noted however, by various media sources, total astonishment at her being appointed as Foreign Affairs Minister. (I feel it simply reflects the absence of competent MP's in the NZ Labour Party that would have normally undertaken that role, i.e. they have a shallow talent pool. Their former Foreign Minister was actually from another political party - NZ First's Winston Peters 2017-2020, who previously held that role 2005-2008, hence had previous experience).
Time will tell whether this criticism of our new FM is justified or not, but if we (NZ) keep getting on the receiving end of "Australian wrath", well hopefully these rockets up their backsides will effect some positive change?
Sorry for being "political" but people outside of NZ won't understand these internal dynamics (especially our Aussie cousins - check out Andrew Bolt's somewhat disingenuous rant in the last 24 hours! My message to him, whom I like watching, would be to refer to Hanlon's Razor)!
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Nighthawk.NZ
Well-Known Member
Sorry to say but that is just Politician talk...
NZ will open a quarantine free two way travel bubble with Australia at 2359 NZST 18 April 2021. This is on a state by state basis so if there is a COVID-19 outbreak in one state it doesn't impact upon the bubble with the rest of Australia. Apparently the idea is in the NZ context, Australia will be treated as if it was part of NZ WRT outbreaks, so instead of being considered a national outbreak, any outbreak will be considered a regional outbreak to start with and work from there as the outbreak response progresses.
covid19.govt.nz
Work is ongoing to extend a two way quarantine free travel bubble with the Cook Islands and other Pacific Islands, especially ones that haven't had any COVID-19 infections.
Trans-Tasman bubble to start 19 April
New Zealand’s successful management of COVID means quarantine-free travel between New Zealand and Australia will start on Monday 19 April.
covid19.govt.nz
Work is ongoing to extend a two way quarantine free travel bubble with the Cook Islands and other Pacific Islands, especially ones that haven't had any COVID-19 infections.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #767
A bubble with ocean dividers should work. Canada’s Maritime provinces bubble was reasonably successful for awhile but land entry is easy and the resources for provincial border enforcement were extremely limited.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #768
Wow, close provincial borders in Canada, good idea but somewhat late! The Brazilian variant seems to be significant in BC (probably for sometime now) and it is likely too late to limit its spread to eastern Canada. Slow vaccine program and pollies bending the knee to commercial interests resistant to effective lockdowns have gotten us to this point. The only thing junior got right was social distancing and masks (likely needed advisers for this).
IPCR_quad
Member
Considering virus been around for billions of years, and flu has been around since dawn of humanity, it'll be a while.
Who is @Claireredfil ? I've just searched and can't find that user anywhere. If this is a quote from outside these forums it is appropriate to provide a link. Otherwise you'll be accused of setting up a straw man argument. By myself, if noone else
oldsig
A recently created DT ID, who made a single one-liner post and got nuked, along with another also suspiciously recently created ID that made a single, one-liner post in this thread. Both ID's have been Banned and their posts deleted by the Mod Team.
-Preceptor
You won't find them because I banned them for trolling, using two accounts and deleted their posts.
India’s B1617 variant —part 1
1. As data provided in this thread has repeatedly shown, governmental competence matters in this COVID-19 pandemic. According to health ministry data, India reported 379,257 new cases and 3,645 new deaths, taking its total caseload to 18.38 million and fatalities to 204,832. It was the highest number of deaths reported in a single day in India since the start of the pandemic.
2. This Apr 2021 alone, India has added more than 6 million new coronavirus cases — including cases of the mutated B1617 coronavirus, that has two spike protein mutations (namely at E484Q and L452R). In reality, India’s B1617 virus variant contains a total of 13 spike protein mutations, that helps it spread faster in the population. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been criticised for allowing massive political rallies and religious festivals which have been super spreader events, for the B1617 virus variant, in recent weeks. "The abruptness with which India went from bad to worse was striking," Jeremy Konyndyk, the senior advisor coordinating agency-wide Covid-19 efforts at USAID told CNN, noting that the US has been providing support to the country since last year.
3. From the first nationwide lockdown, announced by Modi in March 2020 with less than 4 hours’ notice, the central government managed the pandemic under obscure provisions of the Epidemic Diseases Act and the Disaster Management Act, which allowed it to ride roughshod over India’s federal structure. Instead of delegating India’s 28 state governments the authority to design strategies tailored to local conditions, the central government tried to manage COVID-19 by decree from Delhi, with calamitous results.
4. India launched its vaccination drive nearly two months after the UK, but by April, only 37% of health workers, and barely 1.3% of India’s 1.3 billion people, had been fully vaccinated. Only 8% had received at least one vaccine shot. Here, too, the authorities initially bet on centralisation, and its refusal to grant emergency-use approval to vaccines from abroad led to a nationwide shortage of vaccines by mid-April.
5. India's super-wealthy have been in a panic to flee the country's exploding COVID-19 crisis - taking private jets to London before the UK adds their country to its "red list" of restricted pandemic-stricken nations. Now, AFP reports that Indian expats who live and work in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) but were on travel to India are desperately scrambling to return to Dubai. Fearing a prolonged flight ban between India and the UAE, the expats are trying to use an exemption granted to private business planes instituted last year during the first wave of the pandemic.
6. Some 300 weekly commercial flights were suspended in the latest pandemic flight restrictions in one of the world's most busy air corridors - stranding not only low-paid workers on short-term contracts, but also members of wealthy families who traveled to India for holidays, or work.
1. As data provided in this thread has repeatedly shown, governmental competence matters in this COVID-19 pandemic. According to health ministry data, India reported 379,257 new cases and 3,645 new deaths, taking its total caseload to 18.38 million and fatalities to 204,832. It was the highest number of deaths reported in a single day in India since the start of the pandemic.
2. This Apr 2021 alone, India has added more than 6 million new coronavirus cases — including cases of the mutated B1617 coronavirus, that has two spike protein mutations (namely at E484Q and L452R). In reality, India’s B1617 virus variant contains a total of 13 spike protein mutations, that helps it spread faster in the population. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been criticised for allowing massive political rallies and religious festivals which have been super spreader events, for the B1617 virus variant, in recent weeks. "The abruptness with which India went from bad to worse was striking," Jeremy Konyndyk, the senior advisor coordinating agency-wide Covid-19 efforts at USAID told CNN, noting that the US has been providing support to the country since last year.
(i) India, a country of 1.3 billion people, has become the latest hotspot of a pandemic that has killed more than 3 million people worldwide, even as richer countries take steps towards normality with accelerating vaccination programmes. India's crisis is deepening, and several countries have pledged medical assistance as hospitals face oxygen shortages. Hospital beds are now overflowing, oxygen supplies have dwindled, vaccination centres have run out of doses, and pharmacies are unable to meet the demand for antivirals.
(ii) India is reeling from its inapt management of the crisis over the last few months. In the recent past, on national television, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to bang plates together. Two weeks later, he instructed them to light lamps at a specific moment. Superstition replaced science-based policies in confronting the pandemic.
(iii) Amid the collapsing health system and swamping coronavirus infections in virus-hit India, angry Twitteratis are now demanding resignation from Prime Minister Narendra Modi — whose government has clearly failed at controlling the virus spread in the country.
(iv) Responsibility for the devastating second wave of Covid-19 now sweeping India belongs "first and foremost" to the government, according to Narendra Taneja, a spokesman for the ruling BJP party. "We are in power, we are the government in India so of course responsibility is first and foremost ours, good or bad, whatever it is. It is our responsibility and we're trying our very level best," Taneja told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. However, he also argued that the current crisis could not have been foreseen. "A lot of people are saying that... we knew in February. At that time, scientists and doctors were more or less of the same view," he said.
3. From the first nationwide lockdown, announced by Modi in March 2020 with less than 4 hours’ notice, the central government managed the pandemic under obscure provisions of the Epidemic Diseases Act and the Disaster Management Act, which allowed it to ride roughshod over India’s federal structure. Instead of delegating India’s 28 state governments the authority to design strategies tailored to local conditions, the central government tried to manage COVID-19 by decree from Delhi, with calamitous results.
4. India launched its vaccination drive nearly two months after the UK, but by April, only 37% of health workers, and barely 1.3% of India’s 1.3 billion people, had been fully vaccinated. Only 8% had received at least one vaccine shot. Here, too, the authorities initially bet on centralisation, and its refusal to grant emergency-use approval to vaccines from abroad led to a nationwide shortage of vaccines by mid-April.
5. India's super-wealthy have been in a panic to flee the country's exploding COVID-19 crisis - taking private jets to London before the UK adds their country to its "red list" of restricted pandemic-stricken nations. Now, AFP reports that Indian expats who live and work in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) but were on travel to India are desperately scrambling to return to Dubai. Fearing a prolonged flight ban between India and the UAE, the expats are trying to use an exemption granted to private business planes instituted last year during the first wave of the pandemic.
6. Some 300 weekly commercial flights were suspended in the latest pandemic flight restrictions in one of the world's most busy air corridors - stranding not only low-paid workers on short-term contracts, but also members of wealthy families who traveled to India for holidays, or work.
- In a Level 4 travel advisory, the US government on asked its citizens to leave India as soon as possible in wake of the country's COVID-19 crisis.
- Israel banned entry to tourists from India over concerns about the variant's spread and the severe increase in cases there. As part of the new restrictions, only 300 Indian caregivers and students will be allowed to enter the country per month. They will be required to quarantine at coronavirus hotels.
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Context & comparison for India problems —part 2
7. Many including the EU, UK, Germany, Israel, France, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore have sent aid to India, to help them cope with the crisis. India's severe medical oxygen supply crisis is expected to ease by mid-May, a top industry executive told Reuters, with output rising by 25% by then.
8. The Biden administration has also redirected its own order of AstraZeneca manufacturing supplies to India, which will allow it to make over 20 million doses of vaccine. Konyndyk told CNN that the Indian government has asked that USAID "work through the Indian Red Cross to distribute the supplies so we'll be working mainly through that channel." USAID said, "The United States deployed the first of several emergency Covid-19 relief shipments to India. Arriving in New Delhi from Travis Air Force Base on the world's largest military aircraft, the shipment includes 440 oxygen cylinders and regulators... In addition, on this first flight, USAID has sent 960,000 Rapid Diagnostic Tests to identify infections early to help prevent the community spread of Covid-19, and 100,000 N95 masks to protect India’s frontline healthcare heroes," the statement said.
10. Even if you have a competent government during this COVID-19 pandemic, multiple waves of this outbreak can erase gains made. In early Apr 2021, South Korea reimposed a ban on nightclubs, karaoke bars and other nightly entertainment facilities, authorities said on Friday (Apr 9), after the number of new COVID-19 cases surged, fanning fears over a potential fourth wave of outbreaks. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) reported 671 new cases, a day after the daily tally hit the highest level since early January, with clusters developing from churches, bars and gyms, mostly in the greater Seoul area. Total infections rose to 108,269, with 1,764 deaths so far.
11. Likewise, there are 16 community cases among the 35 new COVID-19 infections reported in Singapore as of noon on 29 Apr 2021 — there was a period of a few months where there were zero community cases in Singapore. This resurgence is the highest number of community infections in Singapore since 11 Jul 2020, when 24 community cases were reported.
7. Many including the EU, UK, Germany, Israel, France, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore have sent aid to India, to help them cope with the crisis. India's severe medical oxygen supply crisis is expected to ease by mid-May, a top industry executive told Reuters, with output rising by 25% by then.
(i) Many countries have said they will supply oxygen, diagnostic tests, treatments, ventilators and protective gear to help India at the time of crisis which World Health Organization’s chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Monday called “beyond heartbreaking.” Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany was “urgently preparing a mission of support” to help India cope with the rise in infections. “The fight against the pandemic is our common fight,” she said.
(ii) The IAF’s C-17 fleet has so far airlifted 18 Cryogenic oxygen containers from Dubai Airport and landed at Panagarh Air Base in three sorties since 26 Apr 2021. India also received a special cargo for medical aid comprising 480 BiPAPs (for breathing support), 157 ventilators, and other medical supplies from the UAE on 29 Apr 2021. This follows a call received by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar from UAE Foreign Minister HH Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan earlier where he expressed his solidarity with India in the wake of the worsening Covid-19 situation in the country.
(iii) An IAF C-17 landed in Singapore on 24 Apr 2021 to transport 4 cryogenic tanks to India. Further, on 28 Apr 2021, at Paya Lebar Air Base in Singapore, the Indian High Commissioner P Kumaran saw off two C-130Hs from carrying a consignment of 256 oxygen cylinders from the Singapore Government, to support India’s COVID-19 effort.
(iv) "Upon request for assistance by India, we have activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. The EU will do its utmost to mobilise assistance to support people of India. Our ERCC is already coordinating EU MS that are ready to provide urgently needed oxygen & medicine rapidly," tweeted Janez Lenarcic, the European Commissioner for Crisis Management.
(v) Assistance from the leading economies of the world is expected to reach in multiple phases with France this week sending 8 large Oxygen Generating Plants and 5 liquid oxygen containers. Germany will make an oxygen production plant available for 3 months along with 120 ventilators and protective equipment like KN95 masks. Australia announced that it will send 500 ventilators, 1 million surgical masks, 500,000 P2 and N95 masks for the frontline health workers.
(vi) Saudi Arabia has sent 80 MT of liquid oxygen which is currently en route via sea. "Israel is considering sending medical aid to India following the large spike in infections in the country," said Prof. Nachman Ash. External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar received calls from Canadian Foreign Minister and Kuwaiti Foreign Minister to discuss ways to help India.
8. The Biden administration has also redirected its own order of AstraZeneca manufacturing supplies to India, which will allow it to make over 20 million doses of vaccine. Konyndyk told CNN that the Indian government has asked that USAID "work through the Indian Red Cross to distribute the supplies so we'll be working mainly through that channel." USAID said, "The United States deployed the first of several emergency Covid-19 relief shipments to India. Arriving in New Delhi from Travis Air Force Base on the world's largest military aircraft, the shipment includes 440 oxygen cylinders and regulators... In addition, on this first flight, USAID has sent 960,000 Rapid Diagnostic Tests to identify infections early to help prevent the community spread of Covid-19, and 100,000 N95 masks to protect India’s frontline healthcare heroes," the statement said.
9. Can we please avoid one-liners? To understand each other, a more in-depth discussion is needed. Like India and despite the Indonesian government’s efforts to contain the virus, Indonesia is still trapped in an endless wave of infections. Indonesians are used to hearing a new record number of COVID-19 cases announced every single day. The government’s halfhearted social distancing policies, low testing rates, poor contact tracing and policies that prioritise the economy over people’s health have contributed to the country’s bad COVID-19 management. Instead of turning to science for answers, some of Jokowi’s ministers recommended prayers and traditional herbal drinks. Later on this administration preferred fixing the economy to taking care of the people, a decision that proved futile.
10. Even if you have a competent government during this COVID-19 pandemic, multiple waves of this outbreak can erase gains made. In early Apr 2021, South Korea reimposed a ban on nightclubs, karaoke bars and other nightly entertainment facilities, authorities said on Friday (Apr 9), after the number of new COVID-19 cases surged, fanning fears over a potential fourth wave of outbreaks. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) reported 671 new cases, a day after the daily tally hit the highest level since early January, with clusters developing from churches, bars and gyms, mostly in the greater Seoul area. Total infections rose to 108,269, with 1,764 deaths so far.
11. Likewise, there are 16 community cases among the 35 new COVID-19 infections reported in Singapore as of noon on 29 Apr 2021 — there was a period of a few months where there were zero community cases in Singapore. This resurgence is the highest number of community infections in Singapore since 11 Jul 2020, when 24 community cases were reported.
(i) There are now 8 active COVID-19 clusters, the largest of which is linked to a nurse at Tan Tock Seng Hospital with 9 cases in all. The next largest cluster with 8 cases is linked to an Immigration officer deployed at Changi Airport Terminal 1. 7 of the cases are his family members, including a three-year-old boy. They had all been placed on quarantine earlier.
(ii) Addressing the new variants of the COVID-19 virus, director of medical services Associate Professor Kenneth Mak said that as of 20 Apr 2021, Singapore has detected 7 local cases of the B117 (the UK variant and a variant of concern), and 1 local case of the B1351 (the South African variant). Vaccines are less effective against the B1351 (the South African variant), when compared with the original coronavirus and a variant first identified in Britain. Singapore has detected 342 imported cases with the B117, B1351, B11281 (P1), B11282 (P2) and B11283 (P3) variants, said Assoc Prof Mak. The Nigerian B1525 (has 2 changes in the spike protein, Q677H and F888L, along with the E484K mutation) and Indian B1617 (with the E484Q and L452R mutation) strains of the virus have also been detected among imported cases into Singapore, he added.
(iii) All long-term pass holders and short-term visitors who have travelled to India within the last 14 days will not be allowed to enter or transit through Singapore from 24 Apr 2021. Explaining why Singapore has tightened its border measures, Lawrence Wong said the situation in India has worsened since the start of the week. He added that the mandatory stay at home period is not “100% foolproof”, noting that any leaks among newly arrived Indian workers could possibly introduce new strains into dormitories and result in new clusters. As at 29 Apr 2021, Singapore has had 61,121 COVID-19 infections but 60,738 have these have been discharged, with 110 still in hospital and 243 in isolation. Total deaths so far is 30.
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It appears that Modi is his own worse enemy. I was watching the lunchtime news on our local idiot box and the BJP had been holding massive election campaign gatherings which will have turned out to be superspreader events. That and all the various religious gatherings have created massive superspreader spreader events. This is going to get a lot helluva worse before it gets better.
India’s B1617 variant — part 3
12. Even if the spread is being managed, Japan has a problem with slow vaccine roll out and has only used about a fifth of the COVID-19 vaccine doses it has imported, government data showed on 28 Apr 2021. This underscores the logistical hurdles such as a shortage of medical staff as it grapples with a sluggish inoculation campaign. Japan has secured the largest amount of COVID-19 vaccines in Asia, as it gears up for the Olympics in the summer. But it has inoculated only 1.6% of its population so far, the slowest among wealthy countries. By comparison, South Korea, which began its inoculation campaign after Japan, has administered two-thirds of 3.87 million doses of AstraZeneca Plc and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines it had received so far, inoculating 4.7% of its population.
14. The WHO acknowledged that its preliminary modelling based on sequences submitted to GISAID indicates "that B1617 has a higher growth rate than other circulating variants in India, suggesting potential increased transmissibility." The E484Q mutation is similar to another - E484K or sometimes nicknamed "Eek." The Eek has been dubbed an "escape mutation" as it helps the virus get past the body's immune system.
15. The L452R mutation was found by a Californian study to be an efficient spreader. Dr Anurag Agrawal, director of India’s Council of Scientific and Industrial Research’s Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, said in a Bloomberg report last week that the L452R mutation has been shown to increase viral transmission by about 20% and reduce the efficacy of antibodies by more than 50%.
16. Of concern is the fact that Israel’s Health Ministry has identified 41 new cases of the Indian coronavirus variant in Israel, including 4 in people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19. The Indian B1617 variant is currently a variant of interest but not yet a variant of concern. "To escalate it up the ranking we need to know that it's increased transmissibility, increased severity, or vaccine-evading, and we just don't have that yet, but we're looking at the data on a daily basis,” said Susan Hopkins of Public Health England.
12. Even if the spread is being managed, Japan has a problem with slow vaccine roll out and has only used about a fifth of the COVID-19 vaccine doses it has imported, government data showed on 28 Apr 2021. This underscores the logistical hurdles such as a shortage of medical staff as it grapples with a sluggish inoculation campaign. Japan has secured the largest amount of COVID-19 vaccines in Asia, as it gears up for the Olympics in the summer. But it has inoculated only 1.6% of its population so far, the slowest among wealthy countries. By comparison, South Korea, which began its inoculation campaign after Japan, has administered two-thirds of 3.87 million doses of AstraZeneca Plc and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines it had received so far, inoculating 4.7% of its population.
13. As the pool of the infected grows in the pandemic, the virus mutates to become more easily spread. That is why I suspect that the Indian massive superspreader events are transmitting the B1617 variant (which has the E484Q and L452R mutations) of COVID-19. The more transmissible variant was first found in India and had been detected in more than 1,200 sequences uploaded to the GISAID open-access database "from at least 17 countries." Some of these mutations result in reduced neutralisation which may have an impact on counter measures, including vaccines. "The impression is that the Pfizer vaccine has efficacy against it, albeit a reduced efficacy," said Hezi Levy, Israel’s health ministry's director-general.
14. The WHO acknowledged that its preliminary modelling based on sequences submitted to GISAID indicates "that B1617 has a higher growth rate than other circulating variants in India, suggesting potential increased transmissibility." The E484Q mutation is similar to another - E484K or sometimes nicknamed "Eek." The Eek has been dubbed an "escape mutation" as it helps the virus get past the body's immune system.
15. The L452R mutation was found by a Californian study to be an efficient spreader. Dr Anurag Agrawal, director of India’s Council of Scientific and Industrial Research’s Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, said in a Bloomberg report last week that the L452R mutation has been shown to increase viral transmission by about 20% and reduce the efficacy of antibodies by more than 50%.
16. Of concern is the fact that Israel’s Health Ministry has identified 41 new cases of the Indian coronavirus variant in Israel, including 4 in people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19. The Indian B1617 variant is currently a variant of interest but not yet a variant of concern. "To escalate it up the ranking we need to know that it's increased transmissibility, increased severity, or vaccine-evading, and we just don't have that yet, but we're looking at the data on a daily basis,” said Susan Hopkins of Public Health England.
- Variant of concern (eg. UK’s B117, Brazil’s P1): A variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (eg. increased hospitalizations or deaths), a significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.
- Variant of interest (eg. India’s B1617, Brazil’s P2, UK’s B1525): A variant containing specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #778
Wrt Japan, I am really surprised the Olympic Games are still on the table. With all the unknowns about emerging variants of concern and Japan’s age demographics, holding the games is a cluster f)$& waiting to happen. The economic return for the games at this point is likely going to be much lower than expected and will be wiped out if there is a major increase in infections.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I'm very concerned with Indonesia especially from this April, May, and June. Many people simply do not care with COVID and Government can't control all the gathering. Yes there's urgency in the surface to not repeat India case. However with Jokowi's following Indian model of micro area containment, I'm very worried on how to control it. Doing micro area containment can be done if the capabilities on tracing and area control are efficient and tight. Something that I don't see this Government already shown good track record doing that.
Most people already fed up, and those who already got vaccinated are showing much relax attitude. At the same time eventough close to 20 million already vaccinated, only a third of that got twice doses already. I see restaurant, malls And hotels nearly back to capacity, and traffic already close to before COVID.
Very concerning. Many expert talk about begin to relaxing only after 70-80 million population in COVID epicenter like Big Cities and Java got full twice doses. Indonesia still not reach that, and people already relaxed their attitude in close quarters like restaurant and malls. While the Government shown bit overwhelmed on controlling that.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #780
The situation in Canada is somewhat similar. After 14 months of on and off again lockdowns people are tired and pi$$ed off. Major total lockdowns should have occurred earlier with longer durations. All air ports should have been closed from the onset just like the land borders were along with provincial border closings. Had this been done from the get go things surely would be better. Who should have been vaccinated first is debatable and vaccine procurement sucked but I am not sure if there was a good solution other than an investment in vaccine technology and production capability after SARS. Needless to say the pollies missed that. The big question here will be the consequences (if any) of delaying the second dose to 16 weeks, especially as the new emerging variants of concern arrive (many already have). The other big question is how effective will the current vaccines be against these new variants? I imagine the US, UK, and Israel will be indicators of how well current vaccines work against new variants give their relatively high vaccination rates.