New Coronavirus threat

[Ananda]

The need for second dose for much of the COVID vaccine right now, provide big problem for many developing nation's. China third vaccine that already request WHO emergency approval, seems going to be much demanded by developing nation's.

One-dose CanSinoBIO vaccine to reach 300m shots annually: company - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Seems China will aim Cansino as part of their Vaccine diplomacy drive in Africa, Asia and South America. Easy to stored and provide tolerable efficacy rate, I can see the attractiveness. So far they claim relative better side effects the other one dose vaccine like. Jhonson and Jhonson. Personally I don't mind getting just one dose. Eventough those single dose vaccine will need booster shot along the line, at least seems both of them provide better protection after on doses. It can reduce logistics constraints for many developing Nation's.

 

[swerve]

India’s B1617 variant —part 1

1. As data provided in this thread has repeatedly shown, governmental competence matters in this COVID-19 pandemic. According to health ministry data, India reported 379,257 new cases and 3,645 new deaths, taking its total caseload to 18.38 million and fatalities to 204,832. It was the highest number of deaths reported in a single day in India since the start of the pandemic.
...

And those numbers are pretty much universally (i.e. by everyone except Modi fans) accepted as massively understated. Nobody has any numbers from a lot of rural areas, where testing has been minimal & medical infrastructure is limited, & sometimes almost non-existent. A lot of people are dying at home, undiagnosed, even in the cities.

 

[swerve]

Wrt Japan, I am really surprised the Olympic Games are still on the table. With all the unknowns about emerging variants of concern and Japan’s age demographics, holding the games is a cluster f)$& waiting to happen. The economic return for the games at this point is likely going to be much lower than expected and will be wiped out if there is a major increase in infections.

Have you been listening to my wife?

She watches Japanese news, & talks to her family & friends in Japan, & your opinion on holding the Olympics is identical to hers. She expects a new prime minister as soon as the pandemic subsides. Nobody's knifing Suga in the back yet because they don't want the poisoned chalice. They're waiting for him to fail.

 

[John Fedup]

Have you been listening to my wife?

She watches Japanese news, & talks to her family & friends in Japan, & your opinion on holding the Olympics is identical to hers. She expects a new prime minister as soon as the pandemic subsides. Nobody's knifing Suga in the back yet because they don't want the poisoned chalice. They're waiting for him to fail.

Waiting for the pandemic to subside...might be a huge pandemic tsunami before that happens with all the disastrous consequences.

 

[ngatimozart]

Have you been listening to my wife?

She watches Japanese news, & talks to her family & friends in Japan, & your opinion on holding the Olympics is identical to hers. She expects a new prime minister as soon as the pandemic subsides. Nobody's knifing Suga in the back yet because they don't want the poisoned chalice. They're waiting for him to fail.

There's Olympics talk here but no one is seriously talking about not going. The Olympic Kiwi athletes and team officials have been getting their vaccinations and are still preparing for the games. Some members of the public are questioning the wisdom of the wisdom of the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics continuing to be held. I have to admit that I too am starting to have doubts about the wisdom of continuing with the Olympics this year. Maybe they should either cancel them completely or hold the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics in 2022.

 

[OPSSG]

And those numbers are pretty much universally (i.e. by everyone except Modi fans) accepted as massively understated. Nobody has any numbers from a lot of rural areas, where testing has been minimal & medical infrastructure is limited, & sometimes almost non-existent. A lot of people are dying at home, undiagnosed, even in the cities.

1. Agreed. India's COVID-19 death toll jumped by a record 3,689 deaths on 2 May 2021, the highest single-day rise since the start of the pandemic, taking the country's death toll to more than 215,000.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389445694264512512

2. India’s fight against a surge in coronavirus cases will be reinforced by new UK Government support announced by the Prime Minister. 1,000 ventilators will be sent from the UK’s surplus supply to Indian hospitals to help the most severe Covid cases. This is in addition to 200 ventilators, 495 oxygen concentrators and 3 oxygen generation units the UK announced that are being sent to India last week.

3. A special cargo flight brought 28 tonnes of medical equipment from France as part of the country's first phase of the "solidarity mission" launched by President Emmanuel Macron to help India.

4. France, UK and Germany are doing good work to help — the video below explains French efforts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389589090601816065

5. A German military aircraft with 120 ventilators reached India, as plans were being made for additional flights with more supplies to help India cope with the catastrophic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The aircraft, which took off from Cologne, brought a team of 13 experts who will help set up and operate mobile oxygen production units over the next two weeks. Germany is providing €50 million of goods and is one of a number of countries that has pledged to help.

 

[OPSSG]

I'm very concerned with Indonesia especially from this April, May, and June. Many people simply do not care with COVID and Government can't control all the gathering. Yes there's urgency in the surface to not repeat India case. However with Jokowi's following Indian model of micro area containment, I'm very worried on how to control it...

Very concerning...

Indonesia still not reach that, and people already relaxed their attitude in close quarters like restaurant and malls. While the Government shown bit overwhelmed on controlling that.

@Ananda, I hope I am wrong but I do expect an India-type crisis very soon unless:

(i) Indonesia (especially Jakarta that records only 3,000 new cases per day); and

(ii) Luzon and Mindanao in the Philippines (especially Manila that records only 3,000 new cases per day and Davao City that records only 35 to 40 new cases per day),

arrest the current trend of infections. There is serious undercounting of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia and the Philippines. A citizen-led data science campaign in Indonesia has uncovered almost three times more deaths from the coronavirus than the government tally, according to a report on The Telegraph.

The world’s fourth most populous nation in the world, in 2020, Indonesia had the highest COVID-19 fatality rate in Asia (but have now been overtaken by India in 2021). While the figures could be skewed by limited testing, many experts also think that the real number is likely to be much higher than the official numbers. Further, I suspect Davao data is either wrong from inadequate testing or it is fake. By way of contrast, in Singapore, where contact tracing is an Olympic sport, there are still currently 131 confirmed COVID-19 cases who are still in hospital and 267 are isolated.

 

[Ananda]

hope I am wrong but I do expect an India-type crisis very soon unless:

That's why people in Market and Financial Industry is quite jittery with the Government Progress on controlling people movement in this month and next (during Ramadhan and Ied). The trend in Jakarta and West Java for couple of weeks actually already shown downward trend or at least stabilize. However it's still shaky trend, not a sustainable one yet.

However so does India in end of last year and early this year. Personally I believe eventough the mutated virus version has some to do with India COVID Tsunami recently, but more on to Modi's Administration let the people movement and congregation unchecked. So back to Indonesia, we are nervous to see how successful the Government to control people movement with this couple of months.

Moreover Jokowi's administration must forgot opening most International tourism or postpone it at least until August and September. Many people (not only in Indonesia) already think vaccination is their tickets to go back to "normal" life. Strong government control still needed at least until September, even tough if the trend shown decrease trend.
India should be the lesson learned, if any nation (the Administration and the people) still not learn that, then it'll open another COVID ticking bomb.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia (especially Jakarta that records only 3,000 new cases per day); and

Sorry @OPSSG put this on different post. Since the first one talk about problem on managing people movement and congegration, while I'll put this response on another post on the context of tracing.

Tracing will always be a problem for large, heavy population developing Nation like India, Indonesia and Philipines. I can't talk much on Philipines, however for Indonesia I can say the best number of tested and tracked COVID case (per million population) are in Jakarta.

Even that, Jakarta still miss some what on tracking cases on dense populated area populated on lower economics segment. This's due to on tracking migrant population that many still not well documented. Even that, the Jakarta's numbers still the best tracked region in Indonesia. Considering percentage of ratio on testing based on WHO standard, Jakarta already far surpass it.

For this last few of weeks Jakarta's number already fall below 2000 daily and in fact is already around +/- 1000 daily for last couple of weeks. The outer islands and region or even some parts of Java that I'm worried on tracking capabilities. Some reports from Central Java and Jogjakarta area recently shown spike on the numbers of hospitalisation and burrials, while their officials number still shown stable trends. So many Public Health Analyst suplement their calculation trend on the numbers of sudden increase on medical treatment plus burrials on top of the officials COVID numbers. If they don't see the jump on those two numbers on a particullar area, then the officials COVID numbers more or less can be used. This practise especially being done on the latest spike from November 20 - Februari 21.

Still the numbers that being calculated from Philipines, Indonesia, or India are still more reliable than most Sub Saharan Africa for example. In the end it will be reflected to how good each government keep tracking on their own population data and movement. This especialy true for their own domestic migrants workers. Like it or not, the way CCP keep tracking on their population movement is one of the reasons why they manage to put China COVID numbers controlable.

 

[OPSSG]

There were 17 new coronavirus cases confirmed by Singapore’s Ministry of Health (MOH) as at 4 May 2021, taking Singapore's total to 61,252. Of these, 5 are from the community. All of them were detected from MOH's proactive testing of patients, visitors and staff at Tan Tock Seng Hospital or their close contacts.

MOH at one stage managed to stop all COVID-19 community spread in Singapore but it’s come back, via through the infection of an immigration officer as a cluster (which was not detected early) and then to the Tan Tock Seng Hospital cluster.

Sorry @OPSSG put this on different post. Since the first one talk about problem on managing people movement and congegration, while I'll put this response on another post on the context of tracing.

Tracing will always be a problem for large, heavy population developing Nation like India, Indonesia and Philipines...

No problem. Appreciate the long and coherent response. It helps me learn from you.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389885948943474690

INS Airavat and INS Kolkata have sailed from Singapore and Kuwait, respectively carrying cryogenic O2 tanks, O2 cylinders & vital medical supplies and heading for Indian shores.

9 warships of the Indian Navy have been pressed into service on a medical relief operation called Operation Samudra Setu II (Ocean Bridge II) to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. With medical supplies running low in Indian hospitals, these 9 vessels were sent to West Asia and South East Asia. BZ to the Indian Navy for their role in the COVID-19 fight.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

On top of the Covid-19 virus, this creepy fungus is now also targeting the Covid-patients.

Mucormycosis: The 'black fungus' maiming Covid patients in India

Doctors in India are reporting a rash of a rare infection in Covid patients which is making them blind.

www.bbc.com

 

[OPSSG]

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead for Covid-19, said that the variant, known as B.1.617, has been found in preliminary studies to spread more easily than the original virus and there is some evidence it may able to evade some of the protections provided by vaccines. The WHO official said it is reclassifying the highly contagious Covid variant spreading in India as a “variant of concern” at the global level.

WHO classifies India variant as being of global concern — Reuters

WHO: India Variant of ‘Global’ Concern — VOA

 

[Ananda]

Catatan Sebaran Covid-19 di Sumsel-Sumut Dominan Varian Baru

Menteri Kesehatan Budi Gunadi Sadikin menyoroti Sumsel dan Sumut usai temuan kasus mutasi virus SARS-CoV-2 varian B1617 dan B117.

www.cnnindonesia.com

Most of B.1.617 variance that found in Indonesia recently, found in South and North Sumatra. So far indication shown coming from Migrant Workers. Most Sumatra migrant Workers work in Malayan peninsula. This prompt Administration to increase scrutiny and tracking on Migrant Workers and people that travel from Sumatra to Java in ferry crossings.

Angka Covid-19 di Kepri Terus Meningkat, Total 12.339 Kasus

Update jumlah kasus Covid-19 di Kepulauan Riau.

regional.kompas.com

At similar period, the number of COVID infection from Batam area shown increasing trends.

Kasus Covid-19 Naik, Keterisian Tempat Tidur di RS Rujukan Lewati 50 Persen di 7 Provinsi

Capaian persentase itu disebabkan karena naiknya kasus virus corona di sejumlah provinsi.

amp.kompas.com

The bed occupancy rate on COVID Hospitals in Sumatra also creeping up above 50%, while at same time Java rates still in 40%.

All of this raise Administration worries on Sumatra and Riau Islands trends. Those two areas are where most returning migrant Workers from Malaysia and Singapore entering.

 

[John Fedup]

Several Canadian provinces are restricting the use of Astra Zeneca vaccine due to blood clot issues. Some reports now say the problem odds are 1 in 55,000. Surely the UK should have good data on this by now. Also, those who had Astra Zeneca first doses can get mRNA vaccines for the second dose. This partly due to increased availability for the mRNA vaccines. Will be interesting to see the data on mixed doses as well as Canada’s increased dose interval period.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-paused-canada-blood-clot-vitt-1.6022821

 

[John Fedup]

A report on the poor response to COVID. Once again, zero mention of the biggest issue, the shit transparency of the CCP. This lack of transparency is good reason to suspect the laboratory origin for COVID.
Covid: Serious failures in WHO and global response, report finds Covid: Serious failures in WHO and global response, report finds

 

[swerve]

"This lack of transparency is good reason to suspect the laboratory origin for COVID"

William of Ockham would disagree.

The CCP is secretive by default. A lack of transparency on any particular issue is normal, even when there's nothing to hide, or it's counter-productive. It's more or less instinctive for Chinese officialdom to try to hush things up, & hide problems. The Chinese response to SARS-COV2 is a perfect example of standard behaviour. Local officials try to hide things from provincial officials, who try to hide them from Beijing - & that's exactly what they did in this case. The origin of the problem is unimportant: it's a problem, & must be hidden, to protect careers & prestige.

Their behaviour is exactly what one would expect if they thought the virus spread to people from live animal markets. Such markets have long been notorious for blatant disregard for laws on wildlife conservation, animal cruelty, & the like. Local officials wouldn't want higher-ups to blame them for allowing the virus to spread from animal hosts (& they know that's possible: it's happened before in China, though with much less effect), & the central government wouldn't want too much information to get out about things they've traditionally taken little notice of but which elsewhere they know are seen as both backward & reprehensible.

So, there's no need to speculate about leaks from labs. That idea is an unnecessary complication. There's a simpler answer which adequately explains all the known facts, including Chinese official behaviour.

 

[swerve]

Several Canadian provinces are restricting the use of Astra Zeneca vaccine due to blood clot issues. Some reports now say the problem odds are 1 in 55,000. Surely the UK should have good data on this by now. Also, those who had Astra Zeneca first doses can get mRNA vaccines for the second dose. This partly due to increased availability for the mRNA vaccines. Will be interesting to see the data on mixed doses as well as Canada’s increased dose interval period.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-paused-canada-blood-clot-vitt-1.6022821

The UK does have good data. Interestingly, the risk of the AstraZeneca vaccine appears to be more or less the opposite of the danger of Covid-19: it's riskier for women than men, & riskier the younger you are. Maybe 2 out of every million people given it die. In the UK, about 2000 people out of every million of the entire population (not those who have been infected) have died of covid-19 so far. The incidence & death rate have plummeted recently, as the number of vaccinated people has grown. Up to yesterday, 68% of adults in the UK had had at least one dose of a vaccine, & 35% had received two doses. Over 95% of people over 50 have had at least one dose.

Given the availability of other vaccines & the contrary risk profiles of the vaccine & the disease, it makes sense to give other vaccines to relatively young people, especially young women, & save the AstraZeneca vaccine for older people. Refusing to use it at all is a luxury that only rich countries with plentiful vaccine supplies & high-grade infrastructure can indulge in, & would result in huge numbers of preventable deaths. The AstraZeneca vaccine is much easier to handle & a fraction of the price of the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines. They need very cold freezers, much colder than domestic ones. In much of the world it's hard to maintain a cold chain good enough for even the AstraZeneca vaccine, & damn near impossible for the mRNA vaccines.

Even in rich countries, being overly fussy about which vaccine to give can cause deaths. France has put a lower age limit (& a very conservative one) on the AZ vaccine, but people under that age are struggling to get vaccinated. There isn't enough of other vaccines to go round, & because of negative publicity, many people over the limit are refusing the AZ vaccine. Between 10 & 20 times as many people are currently dying of covid-19 in France as in the UK, & that's almost certainly because far fewer people have been vaccinated. The daily covid-19 death rate in France is a few times what the British data suggest total vaccine-related deaths would be if everyone eligible was given the AZ vaccine. But AZ vaccine is being thrown away because it's reached its expiry date before it can be given. Much the same in Germany.

BTW, official guidance for healthcare workers in the UK is freely available to everyone. It's on .gov.uk public pages, downloadable by anyone. Last updated yesterday.

 

[John Fedup]

Here’s recent summary about what is known concerning variant B1.617.2. Pretty disturbing but as the article mentions some of the animal data may not apply to humans and lower antibody levels aren’t necessarily a huge concern. Still, the situation in India may be a harbinger for future horrors.

Coronavirus variants are spreading in India — what scientists know so far

Variants including B.1.617 have been linked to India’s surge in infections. Researchers are hurrying to determine how much of a threat they pose.

www.nature.com

 

[John Fedup]

The Canadian government announced a $200 million investment in a mRNA vaccine plant. Better late than never. Should COVID variants develop resistance to current vaccines this investment will be well worthwhile down the road, a hell of a lot cheaper than months of lockdowns awaiting foreign sourced vaccine supplies.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-government-200-million-mrna-1.6031024