New Coronavirus threat

[John Fedup]

I agree. Here is an "interesting" set of statistics for people to consider, and then compare responses to. I currently reside in a US state with a population of ~5.1 mil. people. Per data from the state department responsible for public health, as of 23:59 20 Feb. 2021 there have been 437,018 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state, another 68,571 probable cases, with 7,417 confirmed deaths and 915 probable deaths.

Now for some comparison. Australia is ~5x the population of the state I live in, yet the much smaller population of the state has/had 15x the number of cases. That suggests, strongly, that steps take in Australia to contain or mitigate risk of viral spread has been more effective, to the tune of an order of magnitude, than steps taken in the US.

Side note: My info suggests that ~29k Australians have or have had COVID-19, which would be more like 0.115% of the population.

The province of British Columbia has roughly the same population as your state, 5.07 million and to date has 76,000 cases. It is one of the better performers in Canada. Ontario, with a 14. 57 million population, has had 293,086 cases. Lockdowns and mandatory masking/social distancing likely explain the difference between your state and BC.

 

[spoz]

Oops, misplaced a decimal point again. 0.115 of course, Better not to do that at work!

 

[Todjaeger]

The province of British Columbia has roughly the same population as your state, 5.07 million and to date has 76,000 cases. It is one of the better performers in Canada. Ontario, with a 14. 57 million population, has had 293,086 cases. Lockdowns and mandatory masking/social distancing likely explain the difference between your state and BC.

That and the degree to which people actually follow pandemic mitigation and control efforts, as opposed to believing it all a hoax, or treating the measures as a sort of litmus test to show partisan political support, or...

 

[kato]

I currently reside in a US state with a population of ~5.1 mil. people. Per data from the state department responsible for public health, as of 23:59 20 Feb. 2021 there have been 437,018 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state, another 68,571 probable cases, with 7,417 confirmed deaths and 915 probable deaths.

I live in a state in Germany with a population of 11.07 million. As of the exact same timestamp we had 310,795 cases and 7,923 deaths - i.e. 28% of your caseload, with a higher death rate (that at 2.5% is in line with typical numbers globally).

Measures included some of the harder ones for lockdowns in Germany, including daytime mandatory-travel-only restrictions and nighttime curfews.

However with the mutations we're now switching over into third wave - with R values slightly above 1 again, and new infections rising again after leveling at a plateau of around 44-45 cases in last rolling 7 days per 100,000 people coming out of second wave .
In the last three weeks - since they started sequencing all positive samples on Jan 30th - about 19% of all cases have been mutated variants-of-concern with higher infectiousness. Patient Zero with British variant B1.1.7 entered the state on Dec 20th (identified Dec 24th), Patient Zero with South-African variant B.1.351 on Dec 13th (only identified on Jan 12th). Haven't seen any reports on infection vector for Brazilian B.1.1.28/P1, but it's in the state too in low numbers (about 0.3% of VOCs during the first week of full sequencing).

 

[John Fedup]

More bad news about emerging mutations in the US. The huge pool of infected patients will lead to more variants. Enhanced transmission and a more serious consequence, more serious symptoms. I fear by the time Canada gets its vaccination efforts underway, some vaccines may no longer work against new strains.
Researchers find worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City
Researchers find worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

What kind of sick act is this!? Such tests has nothing to do with the prevention of pandemics!

Covid: Japan asks China to stop anal tests on its citizens

Some Japanese citizens have said the tests for Covid-19 caused them "psychological distress".

www.bbc.com

 

[supersupersoldier]

The province of British Columbia has roughly the same population as your state, 5.07 million and to date has 76,000 cases. It is one of the better performers in Canada. Ontario, with a 14. 57 million population, has had 293,086 cases. Lockdowns and mandatory masking/social distancing likely explain the difference between your state and BC.

Covid cases in Ontario are overwhelmingly concentrated in the GTA where population is about 3 million. There are currently 0.3 million cases in Ontario. So roughly 1 in 10 diagnosed positive with it in the GTA. The rural areas of Ontario may also have a lot of cases but there are very few facilities in rural areas for testing so most people in rural areas of Ontario never get tested.

 

[John Fedup]

The GTA includes York, Halton, Durham and Peel regions as well as Toronto itself. The population is over 6 million whereas the Ontario population is over 14 million. Currently there are 303,000 cases reported for Ontario since the pandemic start. Some GTA numbers, Toronto Public Health, 94,600 cases, Peel, 61,000, York, 28,000, Durham, 12,000 and Halton, not sure but likely much less than 20,000.

 

[supersupersoldier]

The GTA includes York, Halton, Durham and Peel regions as well as Toronto itself. The population is over 6 million whereas the Ontario population is over 14 million. Currently there are 303,000 cases reported for Ontario since the pandemic start. Some GTA numbers, Toronto Public Health, 94,600 cases, Peel, 61,000, York, 28,000, Durham, 12,000 and Halton, not sure but likely much less than 20,000.

The number of people diagnosed positive is obviously far fewer than the number of people infected. I would wager the vast majority of people shy away from testing because of the negative consequences of a positive test result.

 

[OPSSG]

The number of people diagnosed positive is obviously far fewer than the number of people infected. I would wager the vast majority of people shy away from testing because of the negative consequences of a positive test result.

@supersupersoldier, you are given notice to stop posting in this thread for 48 hours — as you have consistently failed to provide sources in any thread you post in, including this one. Posting is a privilege and the Moderators will progressively revoke this privilege by editorial control of threads.

Failure to heed to red text warning will result in an immediate ban. No reply to this final warning is necessary.

 

[John Fedup]

Some negative news about the AstraZenaca vaccine. Given the number of successful vaccinations in the UK, this clotting problem may be a problem with the particular batch and not the vaccine itself. Nevertheless, along with the over 65 issue, this could hinder vaccination efforts in many regions due to people losing confidence.
Denmark suspends use of AstraZeneca vaccine as 'precautionary measure'
Denmark suspends use of AstraZeneca vaccine as 'precautionary measure'

 

[kato]

this clotting problem may be a problem with the particular batch

The same clotting problem previously already occured in Austria (including a death) - which is why Austria and Italy benched a particular batch of it that both countries were using.

With regard to confidence, that's already well shot out the window outside of the UK to an extent that's likely completely unrecoverable. Link with some numbers from YouGov, released this week.

• About 41% in Germany and France respectively consider AstraZeneca unsafe to use, compared to 5% in the UK.
• In the two countries 42% "do not trust" the manufacturers of the AstraZeneca vaccine (UK: 9%).
• Among those willing to be vaccinated at all 42% would reject a jab with AstraZeneca and wait until a different vaccine becomes available (UK: 4%).

While in other European countries the number are still lower (at about 50-60% of that in this regard) they trend towards catching up to the Franco-German lead there.

 

[swerve]

Some negative news about the AstraZenaca vaccine. Given the number of successful vaccinations in the UK, this clotting problem may be a problem with the particular batch and not the vaccine itself. Nevertheless, along with the over 65 issue, this could hinder vaccination efforts in many regions due to people losing confidence.
Denmark suspends use of AstraZeneca vaccine as 'precautionary measure'
Denmark suspends use of AstraZeneca vaccine as 'precautionary measure'

Or it could be pure coincidence. something that would have happened anyway.

 

[StobieWan]

Seems perverse - the european lead for progress in vaccination has managed to deliver 23 million doses, mainly composed of a large dollop of the AZ vaccine with a slightly smaller portion of the Pfizer vaccine vs Denmarks 800K totals.

I'm definitely starting to see a pattern here and it's of countries with low rollout totals deciding the AZ vaccine is a problem. Based on sod all evidence.

Very strange.

 

[swerve]

While the WHO, EMA etc. say it's fine, no problems, & when politicians listen to their medical advisers they reverse the suspensions.
AstraZeneca vaccine: Germany rejects blood clot risk | DW | 12.03.2021
Germany, others stick with AstraZeneca vaccine as some pause

As the AP article points out, the people vaccinated so far are in high-risk groups, many of who already have medical problems. The anaphylaxis risk is real, but not specific to the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine. After I got my first dose of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine I had to sit & wait for a while in case of anaphylaxis, because there's a known risk with that vaccine. But in the UK it's been less than one in every 100,000 Astrazeneca vaccinations, & all have been treated successfully.

I doubt Sweden will object to it.

 

[StobieWan]

And they've gone and done it again - AZ on hold for France and Germany. If they put their vaccination programs any further back, they'd have to go an un-vaccinate people.

 

[swerve]

One of the scientific talking heads on the Beeb today said that given how many people had been given the AZ vaccine (an eight figure number), & the dates of their vaccinations, the reported rate of deaths from blood clots among them was lower than the population average, & gave the statistics underlying that.

 

[StobieWan]

Reading it now, they're stating 37 incidences out of 17m doses. I Have no idea how that can be significant statistically.

 

[aviation_enthus]

Reading it now, they're stating 37 incidences out of 17m doses. I Have no idea how that can be significant statistically.

I think it’s more related to the fact all the vaccines are still operating under emergency approvals. From what I understand, given there’s still so many “unknowns” with any of the vaccines, events like this require investigation. And in the EU sense, a “pause” while they do that.

But yes, I’ll agree the EU seems to be (in a bad way) all over the slightest issue with the AZ vaccine. Their media coverage hasn’t been helpful to the cause of getting as many people vaccinated as possible!!

 

[CJR]

One of the scientific talking heads on the Beeb today said that given how many people had been given the AZ vaccine (an eight figure number), & the dates of their vaccinations, the reported rate of deaths from blood clots among them was lower than the population average, & gave the statistics underlying that.

The issue appears to be a comparatively high incidence of a certain type of of thrombosis (venous sinus thrombosis... clot in the brain just asking for a stroke) in the younger vaccinated cohort, rather than the rate of all thromboses, which appears to be at or below normal levels.
Per www.sciencealert.com:

According to the regulatory agencies of the countries involved, it comes down to a rare but serious type of blood clot in the brain called venous sinus thrombosis. These have mostly been in quite young people (aged 20-55) which is part of the reason that there is a cause for concern.

The German public health agency has published their findings, showing that there were a total of seven cases of these blood clots in the vaccinated population of 1.6 million people aged 20-55 when they would've expected only one by chance.