Ignore the AI photo. This guy makes good points.
I'll quote:
Israel’s modern mode of thinking is entirely different than psyche & mindset of its enemies, says psychologist & researcher Ofer Grosbard. Israel must develop a much deeper understanding of how its enemies see the world.
Israel’s flawed psychological perceptions led to severe strategic failures, Grosbard says; in an interview with Maariv Online, he argues that Israel must adopt new strategic approach based on 5 principles:
- Verbal threats against Israel must be taken seriously. Enemy leaders & their followers are fully committed to Israel's destruction. These are not empty words. Israel must proactively and consistently attack these enemies.
- Targeted eliminations of enemy leaders are vital. While not a magic solution, such actions are highly significant, delivering a severe blow to the self-confidence of Israel’s adversaries.
- Israeli policy of containing threats projects weakness & fuels hatred. Passive approach reinforces the notion in the eyes of the world & our enemies that attacks on Israel with no response are a normal state of affairs.
- Economic incentives offered by Israel have no impact on enemy leaders. They're wealthy, don’t need financial rewards & don't mind sacrificing their own people. They are likely to exploit economic aid to bolster their own leadership status & boost military capabilities.
- Israel must break its addiction to short-term calm, which carries high costs in the long run. The pursuit of illusory peace must end, as well as the reluctance to strike enemies before they attack us. Israel must favor ongoing preemptive action.
My 2 cents on this analysis, in the same order:
- When someone tells you who they are - believe them. I always believe in giving people/things a chance. If they extend an arm for peace, go all the way. If they start making threats, it's time to take military action and escalate until they agree that threats don't solve things.
- Aside from self confidence, persistent targeting of leadership, not just top leadership but across all echelons - political, military, from strategic to tactical level. This ensures that even if they persist in hostility, their leadership will be of lower quality, and members will be deterred from rising through the ranks and thus from being recruited in the first place.
- I agree. Every nation's security policy should be inherently proactive.
- This refers directly to the "conception" as it is widely called in Israel. The concept that economical prosperity and improved quality of life will incentivize calm and peace. It has been tried and failed numerous times, but October 7th finally put the final nail in the coffin.
- If in the early 2000's Israel had committed to a persistent strike campaign against Iranian MIC and nuclear facilities, an Iranian escalation vs Israel would not be made possible. Today Iran possesses thousands of ballistic missiles it can fire on Israel. Shooting them all down would be both costly and unrealistic.
Re: Strategic aviation buildup in Diego Garcia.
Although signs of increased readiness, these are also possibly negotiation tactics.
Multiple CSG should also arrive soon before the strike package could be described as completed, but signs of real strike intentions would probably consist of:
- Evacuation of valuable assets from Al Udeid and other major US bases in the gulf.
- Evacuation orders for civilians in the area.
- NOTAMs across Iran and much of the gulf area.
After several days of Hezbollah firing rockets at Israel, Israel is now responding with an evacuation warning for an area in the Shi'te part of Beirut.
EDIT: 2 roof knocks were reported so far. The Lebanese government is gathering to discuss these developments.
IMO: The Lebanese government must decide whether it takes military action to drive out Hezbollah and prevent rocket fire into Israel, or stay on course and risk resumed fighting.
It's not a clear decision. Strategically, Lebanon benefits from potential resumed Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Less things to worry about. On the other hand, it'll only further cement the idea that Lebanon is incapable of maintaining order within its borders, which will have an effect on normalization talks.
Lebanon demands territorial exchange. Weak and inactive central government would not persuade Israel and the US.
