Middle East Defence & Security

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member


Very interesting times we live in
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
No you just didn't understand my question. I asked why would Israel bother making peace with its neighbors if it negates its freedom of operations, especially when no nation poses a credible threat to Israel.
In case that's not clear, I am directly referring to the peace with Egypt and Jordan, and the Abraham Accords. So I am asking why did Israel so eagerly accepted all these? And why did it give up freedom of operation in these countries.
I suspect Israel makes peace in situations where it believes it will no longer need freedom of operation, or in cases where the local regime can be influenced via the US. But I can't confidently state this.

Stable nations in formalized peace of course. We only have about 77 years of evidence for it.
Then why not support Assad, sign a formal peace, return the occupied territories to Syria, and have a stable-hostile neighboring Syria?

No. I literally answered a simple "no" to the same question earlier.
Can you not see the issue? You are simultaneously claiming that hosting Iranian military bases puts you at war with Israel and claiming that Mexico hosting such a base would not put them at war with Israel.

You can try. It never went well for anyone other than Israel itself.
I can think of at least a couple of countries that could accopmlish this by ultima ratio regum. But I think you know this wasn't the point.

I don't understand your question though. I was talking about Gaza, not Israel. It was very clear and my wording was not ambiguous.
The topic of statehood in the Palestinian context is a faux topic designed to separate those with shallow understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (who claim statehood is the core of it), and those with deeper understanding (who claim statehood was never part of the conflict).
I don't know if statehood is at the core of it, but I believe it's a significant factor. If Gaza is an independent nation-state then Israeli behavior is one thing If it's a piece of Israel it's another. I believe Israel prefers to have the answer be neither, so it doesn't have to be responsible for the population but can have full freedom of action. I think it's a good example of Israel preferring to operate in a gray area.

Israel has freedom of operation in Gaza because the Palestinians never wanted, do not want, nor will ever want peace with Israel. It is necessary because of a state of war.
Israel does not have freedom of operation in Jordan and Egypt by choice. These too are very hostile populations. Jordan's population is the most hostile in the region. But peace is assured because they're led by dictators that can rein in the population and are interested in keeping the peace.
And because those dictators have specific foreign policy ties that Israel finds favorable.

Israel does not strive for democratic neighbors. It works to find suitable partners, strengthen them, and have them rule and rein in the hostiles.
If by chance any such neighbor becomes democratic without losing its ability to maintain the peace - that's a nice bonus.
True, obvious, and beside the point.

There are very rare cases where Israel operates in the gray area, but even then it's a gray, not something explicitly illegal. Legal consultation exists at all strategic levels and so far despite even standing trial over numerous wars, Israel was not once found guilty by a court.
I don't believe this is true. See above vis-a-vis Gaza.

If anything, the axis theory only corroborates this. Israel is unable to provide more aid than it currently does, nor should it, because it's busy fighting its own wars and at exceptionally high expenditure, while European nations that should assist it are still not even rearming.
Frontier nations should be net recipients of western aid, not its providers.
We do not hear about Ukraine providing aid to Israel or Taiwan, or Taiwan providing aid to Israel and Ukraine.
I don't think the issue is so much quantity as it is visibility.

How very European. Put the average European nation in the middle east and it'll be squashed within weeks.
"Oh no good sir you cannot go around raping our kids. I'm going to have to write you a letter with a frowning emoji and ask the UN to reduce your aid allowance to 3,000 daily calories equivalent within 5 years".
What a curious comment. I suppose your (Asian?) approach would be to have the killings continue? As to what would happen to European nations in the Middle East, Europe waged war on a scale and with an intensity that nobody has since twice last century, and many times before that. Right now two European nations, Russia and Ukraine, are fighting in the largest war of the 21st century (at least by my estimate). So I don't think you are correct. I suspect a European nation in the Middle East would have done just fine. Either way, I've pointed a path forward. You don't like that path? What specifically about it do you dislike? European toothlessness? I specifically pointed to Russia, a particularly crocodile-shaped European nation as a key actor who bears some (quite a bit) of responsibility here. I also pointed out the path would involve engaging with Turkey, and Israel as regional players.

It seems to me that your entire position is "Israel does no wrong" and "I don't care about the killings".

I wouldn't blame them for it.
Nice try. That's not the point and you know it. The point is that Israel didn't magically just get everything they needed to survive. There were specific factors at play. It's the old "bootstrap" argument, that ignores the realities of the modern world. The Alawites can't do what European Jews did in Israel. It's simply not possible. So suggesting that as a solution is a way to deflect responsibility. Israel is happy to illegally occupy parts of Syria, along with certain other players. Israel should partake in helping resolve these issues. It doesn't have to be the main player or the only one. But some action should be taken.

Israeli aid is backfilling for others' aid.
A has 1 tank and B has 1 tank and C has 1 tank.
What does it matter if B got 1 from A and gave 1 to C, or if A gave 1 to C without B? The end result of both is A with 0 tanks, B with 1 tank, and C with 2 tanks.
Ukraine gets from a pool of equipment influenced by how much flows into it. If nothing flows in, less will flow out. More flows in = more flows out. Israel helped keep the flow in.

I really don't see the point in talking about this topic though.
That's not true. Israel hasn't backfilled any tanks for anyone sending them to Ukraine. It has backfilled small quantities of artillery, but again that's not the point. The point is that the volume is low and the visibility of the aid is kept low, and to the best of my knowledge Israel has avoided supplying actual weapons to Ukraine itself. All of this points to Israel wanting to keep relations with Russia as amicable as is reasonbly possible. It runs directly counter to your "axis" argument and points out that blaming the Alawites for Assad's relationship with Russia is hypocritical when Israel itself has a relationship with Russia.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Very well, let's use a more appropriate word, like "Axis". It means partnership.
You're being intentionally obtuse. Russia gets more help from the DPRK then it does from China but China is the axis and the DPRK aren't. Russia deals with other BRICS countries and with many other third world partners, but they aren't included in your "axis", despite you defining it as a partnership, and Russia absolutely has a partnership with India. Russia has much closer ties with Belarus who remains a major source of military hardware for Russia, including things that it can't really source elsewhere, but they're not part of this axis yet Iran is. And by the way Belarus was used as a staging ground for invading Ukraine and continues to host Russian military bases, where they are effectively safe from Ukrainian strikes, arguably safer than in Russia itself, at least the parts of Russia within striking distance. Your selection is arbitrary and tied to players based on a convenient narrative, rather than an accurate reflection of the far more complex reality.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
That's not true. Israel hasn't backfilled any tanks for anyone sending them to Ukraine. It has backfilled small quantities of artillery, but again that's not the point. The point is that the volume is low and the visibility of the aid is kept low, and to the best of my knowledge Israel has avoided supplying actual weapons to Ukraine itself. All of this points to Israel wanting to keep relations with Russia as amicable as is reasonbly possible. It runs directly counter to your "axis" argument and points out that blaming the Alawites for Assad's relationship with Russia is hypocritical when Israel itself has a relationship with Russia.
Note that Israeli supplies of, e.g. 155mm guns (backfilling a Danish donation to Ukraine) & MRLs to European countries aren't aid, but commercial deals. The Europeans are paying the full price & the Israeli manufacturers expect to make profits.

The only military aid Ukraine has received which I've heard of which can be said to have been Israeli was Patriot missiles formerly operated by Israel, but retired from service & in storage. They were returned to the USA, which sent them to Ukraine. Or to be precise, USAF C-17s collected them from Israel & flew them to Poland.

Israel is also reported to have allowed a couple of Israeli companies to sell (again, commercial sales) anti-drone EW systems to Ukraine - but the Israeli press suggests that it may have been motivated by wishing to see them tested against Iranian drones.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Note that Israeli supplies of, e.g. 155mm guns (backfilling a Danish donation to Ukraine) & MRLs to European countries aren't aid, but commercial deals. The Europeans are paying the full price & the Israeli manufacturers expect to make profits.

The only military aid Ukraine has received which I've heard of which can be said to have been Israeli was Patriot missiles formerly operated by Israel, but retired from service & in storage. They were returned to the USA, which sent them to Ukraine. Or to be precise, USAF C-17s collected them from Israel & flew them to Poland.

Israel is also reported to have allowed a couple of Israeli companies to sell (again, commercial sales) anti-drone EW systems to Ukraine - but the Israeli press suggests that it may have been motivated by wishing to see them tested against Iranian drones.
Good point. It's not even aid, it's business.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Then why not support Assad, sign a formal peace, return the occupied territories to Syria, and have a stable-hostile neighboring Syria?
There were attempts. According to released memos, Mr Assad made maximalist demands and remained ambiguous about what Syria would offer in return.


As for Lil Assad, according this here, talks only started picking up in 2010 and by 2011 there were still major hurdles. And as you know 2011 is when the civil war started and any peace treaty was thrown out the window. You don't bet your national security on someone that can't even control his own territory.

All in all, it turned out very well. I opposed giving up the Golan at any cost, even for peace, and what happened since then only reinforced my opinion.
The last 2 years taught every Israeli that land for peace is a concept that should go extinct, and instead it's the Arab nations that should make tough concessions if they want peace.

Can you not see the issue? You are simultaneously claiming that hosting Iranian military bases puts you at war with Israel and claiming that Mexico hosting such a base would not put them at war with Israel.
I never made such claim. You may have misunderstood my claim, but I have clarified it several times. Mexico is not at war with Israel. It never was. So making peace with Mexico is not a possibility to begin with.


I don't know if statehood is at the core of it, but I believe it's a significant factor. If Gaza is an independent nation-state then Israeli behavior is one thing If it's a piece of Israel it's another
Palestinians never wanted statehood. They still don't. Understanding this is part of the foundation of understanding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially in Gaza.

Gaza's formal status as state, autonomous region, or magical chunk of dirt - is irrelevant.
There are wars in Gaza because the people of Gaza prefer killing Jews over living ordinary lives. That is the basis of the conflict.
Freedom of operation is a 3rd or 4th order consideration. Like saying I only play card games to get queens.


I believe Israel prefers to have the answer be neither, so it doesn't have to be responsible for the population but can have full freedom of action. I think it's a good example of Israel preferring to operate in a gray area.
Israel had full freedom of action in Gaza in 2005. Then it withdrew that year and relinquished most of it. It didn't return until briefly in 2008 to a much more hostile and fortified Gaza. Despite many justifications to re-occupy it, it never did except briefly before pulling out.

I cannot recall a single policy item enacted by Israel that somehow contributed to freedom of action in Gaza that isn't a direct and temporary response to hostilities from Gaza.

don't believe this is true. See above vis-a-vis Gaza
Can you name 1 Israeli policy item that would constitute a breach of LOAC+IHL?
If you can't, at least name an informal norm.

The notion that Israel operates routinely outside international legal frameworks is a product of Arab propaganda that therefore cannot be substantiated. Have you never wondered why the biggest proponents of this theory lack any conversational depth?

Israel is the standard setter in LOAC+IHL. The only nation rivaling it is the US.
It's not a matter of nationalism. I personally do not believe in the legitimacy of any higher legal authority, and oppose some treaties thought to be "humane" like banning cluster munitions and anti personnel mines.
I also believe adherence to LOAC+IHL should be somewhat relaxed to reduce the immense budgetary strain. Compliance is incredibly costly due to the very high usage of expensive guided munitions, and overall more time consuming practices that Israel too can no longer afford 17 months into a war.

don't think the issue is so much quantity as it is visibility.
Why would visibility be an issue? More precisely, why should it be more visible? I find the European approach of boasting while doing little - disgusting. Israel should, IMO, advertize more its aid to Ukraine to counter influence campaigns. But I doubt that's a concern to you.
Yes I admit it does require research beyond the superficial to understand the true scope of Israeli aid to Ukraine. Per capita, it's outsized. But Israeli foreign policy has almost always been low-visibility.

I specifically pointed to Russia, a particularly crocodile-shaped European nation as a key actor who bears some (quite a bit) of responsibility here. I also pointed out the path would involve engaging with Turkey, and Israel as regional players.

It seems to me that your entire position is "Israel does no wrong" and "I don't care about the killings
Your "Israel does no wrong" comment very clearly ignores my long time stance that Israel made more wrong foreign policy decisions than right ones, under the current leadership in the last almost 20 years, more so beyond that.
I don't consider Russia a role model for anything. I do care about the killings, as indisputably demonstrated here. But I do not see a path forward to appease everyone. A realistic approach is preferred.
In December Israel destroyed most of the SAA's former arsenal, thus reducing tremendously the capacity for violence in Syria. Israel's demands for a DMZ in the south have forced HTS into a reconciliatory approach toward Druze. I also support Israel conducting a campaign to prevent Syria from rearming, especially under Turkish influence.
These are actions that take very little resources but yield very high gain.
Protecting any other ethnic group in Syria through means beyond that, will take more resources at much lower gain.
The Kurds are much more favorable to Israel and not far from the Alawites but protecting them is deemed almost untenable, although mostly because of Turkey.

The Alawites were given a shot at survival by Israel by leveling the ground. Now it's up to them to evolve as a society. Syria and its many factions cannot evolve back into a coherent entity if they'll keep relying on intervention so much.
As I am grateful to the many western nations for being cold to Israel in its early decades, as it taught those who lived here before me what security independence is.

Israel is happy to illegally occupy parts of Syria, along with certain other players. Israel should partake in helping resolve these issues. It doesn't have to be the main player or the only one. But some action should be taken.
As I explained:
1. Military occupation is not illegal. There is robust framework for what military occupation is and how it's conducted. It's about as illegal as owning a car. You can do illegal things with a car, but merely owning it is not inherently illegal. This perverts the concept of international law.

2. Israel already helped more than anyone else has, by a long shot. By disarming HTS of state-level arsenal and leaving them only on par with other factions. And by gradually enforcing a DMZ in southern Syria where that is realistic for the IDF's capabilities.

3. You have not suggested any concrete action, let alone one that is realistic. Saying "do more" doesn't count if it can't be backed up with an example.

That's not true. Israel hasn't backfilled any tanks for anyone sending them to Ukraine.
The war since October 7th has elevated Israel's own needs and tanks slated for export were returned to service.
IIRC within about a month, another brigade was already set up.
I think the issue was very clear. I never said Israel backfilled tanks.

It has backfilled small quantities of artillery, but again that's not the point.
That's not true. Israel exported about $4.5 billion to Europe in 2023 and a similar number in 2022 - spike years in Israeli defense exports and coinciding with the war in Ukraine.
These include air defenses, electronics, communication systems, radars, artillery, munitions, pilot training, airborne systems etc etc. Most of these stuff you can't physically send to Ukraine. But it does bolster European security where otherwise their industry can't cope, and it does give them better freedom to pick up obsolete stuff and send to Ukraine.

For many reasons, most of them practical, it makes a lot of sense for Israel to NOT send directly to Ukraine. Direct aid requires robust logistics and constant supply, and Israel cannot do that in wartime where munitions go first and foremost to it.
To assist Ukraine, Israel expedited deliveries to Europe and has not redirected Europe-bound weaponry to the IDF. But it cannot also sustain a supply chain to Ukraine when none is willing to fund it.
I'd be happy to see 2 dozen David's Sling batteries covering Ukraine, but unless the US can manufacture 5,000 Stunner missiles a year over what Israel needs for itself, at its own expense, I don't see how it happens practically.
It would also be incredibly unfair Israel give out its own stuff, in the middle of a war, while spending 10% of GDP already, when Europeans can't be bothered to lift a finger and spend a measly 2%.

and to the best of my knowledge Israel has avoided supplying actual weapons to Ukraine itself
Your knowledge is outdated.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
@Feanor @swerve Your wish to portray this as commercial deals and not aid, may accidentally stumble upon the fact that it's true for the vast majority of aid to Ukraine.

It's not gifts. It's all loans, investments with dividends, and overall a lot of money going into American and European MICs.
If you really think there's any defense company out there selling weapons to Ukraine and not getting paid, you're delusional.

But not as delusional as demanding a country at war on 8 fronts that twice outspends the biggest European spender, to also take on the 3rd largest military in the world, while Europe doesn't even support Israel in the slightest.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
European companies providing weapons to Ukraine are being paid - by European governments, not Ukraine. Those governments have also given, free, a hell of a lot of weapons, ammunition, & other military equipment. Much of it's been from stocks, & they've ordered replacements from the makers. In some cases, they've bought stuff from stocks held by other countries & passed it on, & on top of that they're buying new build stuff to give to Ukraine. Some European countries are paying for such things as ammunition to be made in Ukraine.

I've not seen anyone here demanding anything.

"a country at war on 8 fronts that twice outspends the biggest European spender"
What country is that? The biggest European spender on defence last year spent the equivalent of about 17% of Israel's GDP, so you can't mean Israel. Israel doesn't spend 34% of its GDP on its armed forces.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
European companies providing weapons to Ukraine are being paid - by European governments, not Ukraine. Those governments have also given, free, a hell of a lot of weapons, ammunition, & other military equipment. Much of it's been from stocks, & they've ordered replacements from the makers. In some cases, they've bought stuff from stocks held by other countries & passed it on, & on top of that they're buying new build stuff to give to Ukraine. Some European countries are paying for such things as ammunition to be made in Ukraine.

I've not seen anyone here demanding anything.

"a country at war on 8 fronts that twice outspends the biggest European spender"
What country is that? The biggest European spender on defence last year spent the equivalent of about 17% of Israel's GDP, so you can't mean Israel. Israel doesn't spend 34% of its GDP on its armed forces.
No. The biggest spender is Poland at about 4-5% of GDP.
Israel twice outspends that by reaching 8-10%.
There is not a single European nation spending 17% of GDP. That's entirely false.

Your claim that defense companies also work for free is false. If Israeli defense companies are criticized for accepting monetary value for their work, then so too must European and American companies who also get paid for manufacturing equipment that goes to Ukraine.

Old equipment donated has to be backfilled first, so new production is needed. That production has to be paid for by someone.
New equipment donated is also paid for.

Every item donated to Ukraine has been paid for by someone. Singling out Israel for that is abhorrent, and self-embarrassing.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
No. The biggest spender is Poland at about 4-5% of GDP.
Israel twice outspends that by reaching 8-10%.
There is not a single European nation spending 17% of GDP. That's entirely false.

Your claim that defense companies also work for free is false. If Israeli defense companies are criticized for accepting monetary value for their work, then so too must European and American companies who also get paid for manufacturing equipment that goes to Ukraine.

Old equipment donated has to be backfilled first, so new production is needed. That production has to be paid for by someone.
New equipment donated is also paid for.

Every item donated to Ukraine has been paid for by someone. Singling out Israel for that is abhorrent, and self-embarrassing.
READ WHAT YOU REPLY TO!

"There is not a single European nation spending 17% of GDP."
I didn't say any European country is spending that.

You referred to the biggest spender, without defining the term. I used the usual definition, i.e. whoever pays the most in absolute terms, which in Europe other than Russia in the most recent full year is Germany. German spending is equivalent to 17% of Israel's GDP - & that is what I wrote: "The biggest European spender on defence last year spent the equivalent of about 17% of Israel's GDP " Oh, & where did you get 8-10% of Israel's GDP from? The budget (not actual spending, yet) for 2025 is 6.5% of the predicted GDP - but that hasn't happened yet. It was reported as 5.3% in 2023.

"Your claim that defense companies also work for free"
I didn't say that. I said the exact opposite. "European companies providing weapons to Ukraine are being paid - by European governments"

"Every item donated to Ukraine has been paid for by someone. Singling out Israel for that is abhorrent, and self-embarrassing."
Should be embarrassing to you, since the point is that Israel has not paid for any military items donated to Ukraine, but other countries such as Germany, France, the UK, the USA, Denmark, Norway, & so on have paid for them, while you said "It's not gifts. It's all loans, investments with dividends" - which is untrue. Most of what NATO members have provided is gifts, from NATO governments. Some's been paid for with loans - but Ukraine's not paying the interest. In some cases Russia is, unwillingly, from Russian government money held abroad.

Do you not understand English, or are you deliberately trolling?
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The war since October 7th has elevated Israel's own needs and tanks slated for export were returned to service.
IIRC within about a month, another brigade was already set up.
I think the issue was very clear. I never said Israel backfilled tanks.
I'll reply to this part here, since it's most relevant, I will provide a separate response to the rest of the points made. Israel has back filled relatively few things in general and has done so under commercial contracts, not as part of an effort to aid Ukraine. Contrast with the US who has provided subsidized equipment to back fill European stockpiles as replacements for things sent to Ukraine. This simply isn't the same.

That's not true. Israel exported about $4.5 billion to Europe in 2023 and a similar number in 2022 - spike years in Israeli defense exports and coinciding with the war in Ukraine.
A spike in global arms markets "coincided" with the war in Ukraine. Except of course it's not a coincidence at all.

These include air defenses, electronics, communication systems, radars, artillery, munitions, pilot training, airborne systems etc etc. Most of these stuff you can't physically send to Ukraine.
What? Why not? Russia has taken western Ukraine and Odessa and I somehow missed it? Put it on a Novaya Pochta truck, and drive it into L'vov. What's the problem? Logistics? Ukraine manages to operate so many different families of vehicles from so many different incompatible manufacturers, it's insane. I'm sure there's something Israel could have sent to Ukraine. How about some M113s? You yourself talked about how outdated and terrible they are. Why not hand off this terrible old vehicle to Ukraine? They would jump from joy to get more of them because they're running pickup trucks in front line areas and losing many soldiers daily to strikes that even a lightly armored vehicle might survive, or at least protect the occupants from.

But it does bolster European security where otherwise their industry can't cope, and it does give them better freedom to pick up obsolete stuff and send to Ukraine.
Yes. But it does so at their own expense. If they couldn't buy Israeli, they might buy RoK, or Singaporean, or US, or some other source. Israel is getting in on the action due to a spike in global demand. Israel is not providing aid.

For many reasons, most of them practical, it makes a lot of sense for Israel to NOT send directly to Ukraine.
One of those reasons is the desire of Israel not to piss of Russia. With whom Israel has a relationship. A partnership you might say. Dare I say... an axis?

Direct aid requires robust logistics and constant supply, and Israel cannot do that in wartime where munitions go first and foremost to it.
What? Israel has provided the ~4.5 bln in military goods you mentioned. They aren't going to go to Israel's own armed forces regardless. The difference is that they weren't sent as aid to support Ukraine but were sold under commercial contracts to European nations, who then may or may not use those deliveries to offset aid to Ukraine. But that last part has nothing to do with Israel.

To assist Ukraine, Israel expedited deliveries to Europe and has not redirected Europe-bound weaponry to the IDF. But it cannot also sustain a supply chain to Ukraine when none is willing to fund it.
None willing. Least of all Israel itself. So what aid are you talking about? I'm also not sure any of the deliveries were expedited to assist Ukraine. This seems to be your interpretation. Do you have any evidence of a direct causal link?

I'd be happy to see 2 dozen David's Sling batteries covering Ukraine, but unless the US can manufacture 5,000 Stunner missiles a year over what Israel needs for itself, at its own expense, I don't see how it happens practically.
Emphasis mine. Do we need to keep hammering the point? Israel isn't providing aid. It's selling products. The behavior is logical, as you say. But you can't then pretend that this is evidence of some joint existential struggle.

It would also be incredibly unfair Israel give out its own stuff, in the middle of a war, while spending 10% of GDP already, when Europeans can't be bothered to lift a finger and spend a measly 2%.
This is a justification of why Israel isn't providing aid like other players. Not a refutation.

Your knowledge is outdated.
I used the term weapons for a reason. My knowledge may be outdated, do you have evidence of Israel supplying weapons to Ukraine?
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
You referred to the biggest spender, without defining the term. I used the usual definition, i.e. whoever pays the most in absolute terms
The typical measurement is % of GDP, which is a relative, not absolute value.
% of GDP for different nations results in different absolute values.

Oh, & where did you get 8-10% of Israel's GDP from? The budget (not actual spending, yet) for 2025 is 6.5% of the predicted GDP - but that hasn't happened yet. It was reported as 5.3% in 2023.
Israel's GDP for 2024 has been reportedly $558 billion. Its defense expenditure was $31.5 billion, officially, but there have been many increases that are not added to the defense budget itself.
The war is estimated to have cost Israel an additional $53 billion on top of the regular (pre-October 7th) defense budget. Spread that over about a year and a half of war and you get a hefty war expense.

Should be embarrassing to you, since the point is that Israel has not paid for any military items donated to Ukraine, but other countries such as Germany, France, the UK, the USA, Denmark, Norway, & so on have paid for them
Who else is supposed to pay for it then?

I'll reply to this part here, since it's most relevant, I will provide a separate response to the rest of the points made. Israel has back filled relatively few things in general and has done so under commercial contracts, not as part of an effort to aid Ukraine. Contrast with the US who has provided subsidized equipment to back fill European stockpiles as replacements for things sent to Ukraine. This simply isn't the same.
What difference is it if it's the same or not? Your argument is pointless. It is irrefutable that Israel has provided far more aid to Ukraine than the entire continent of Europe has provided to Israel in return.
By your logic, help to Ukraine must only be measured in tanks, so anyone donating aircraft is irrelevant. Or only measured in aircraft, so anyone donating air defenses is irrelevant.
The truth is you simply don't understand the complex logistics involved in running a war. It seems you believe it's all about how many tanks and APCs and howitzers one has, but you're missing the entire industry behind it.
At a time of peak de-industrialization in Europe, Israel's industry was ready to deliver anything requested of it, and it did. Since the war in Ukraine began, Israeli defense factories cranked up their output tremendously and prioritized Europe over any other customer.

A spike in global arms markets "coincided" with the war in Ukraine. Except of course it's not a coincidence at all.
You don't understand the meaning of "coincide" and confuse it with "coincidence".
Whereas "coincidence" typically means multiple events occuring simultaneously in an unexpected way,
the term "coincide" means multiple events occuring simultaneously. Not in an unexpected way.
And indeed the point of that sentence is that there's causality. Israeli exports to Europe spiked - because of the war in Ukraine.

What? Why not? Russia has taken western Ukraine and Odessa and I somehow missed it? Put it on a Novaya Pochta truck, and drive it into L'vov. What's the problem? Logistics? Ukraine manages to operate so many different families of vehicles from so many different incompatible manufacturers, it's insane.
Logistics are the problem. Not in delivering the actual things to Ukraine, but to assure Ukraine of steady supplies.
The big unknowns are:
  1. Who will fund it? Israel doesn't have the money. It has to come from The US or EU. Neither are particularly keen on funding competing products.
  2. Who will produce it? Israel produces a large variety of items but when it comes to bulk production, it outsources to the US.
I'm sure there's something Israel could have sent to Ukraine. How about some M113s? You yourself talked about how outdated and terrible they are. Why not hand off this terrible old vehicle to Ukraine? They would jump from joy to get more of them because they're running pickup trucks in front line areas and losing many soldiers daily to strikes that even a lightly armored vehicle might survive, or at least protect the occupants from.
Israel doesn't have a surplus of M113s. Their old age means anyone out of operational use is kept for parts or used as a UGV.

Yes. But it does so at their own expense. If they couldn't buy Israeli, they might buy RoK, or Singaporean, or US, or some other source. Israel is getting in on the action due to a spike in global demand. Israel is not providing aid.
None is asking anyone to donate to Ukraine, but to supply whatever is available. The big issue is availability, not money. Israel is helping to bridge the availability gap.
It seems like you and @swerve have this perception of Israel that it's some superpower, but really it's just a tiny nation fighting for survival against hostile neighbors all around, being asked by the world's largest economical bloc to save it from a former superpower.

One of those reasons is the desire of Israel not to piss of Russia. With whom Israel has a relationship. A partnership you might say. Dare I say... an axis?
Not even going to respect that with an answer.

What? Israel has provided the ~4.5 bln in military goods you mentioned. They aren't going to go to Israel's own armed forces regardless. The difference is that they weren't sent as aid to support Ukraine but were sold under commercial contracts to European nations, who then may or may not use those deliveries to offset aid to Ukraine. But that last part has nothing to do with Israel.
Good luck to Ukraine operating electronics meant for aircraft it doesn't operate, munitions it has nothing to fire with, BMS it has no suitable tanks to put in, EW equipment it doesn't have the ships to put on etc.
Or did you really think defense trade is all about selling M4s and AKs?

None willing. Least of all Israel itself. So what aid are you talking about? I'm also not sure any of the deliveries were expedited to assist Ukraine. This seems to be your interpretation. Do you have any evidence of a direct causal link?
Yeah, every year I watch those investor conferences of defense companies that you so casually dismissed.

So what aid are you talking about?
Air defenses, aircraft, radars within and without a national early warning array, ongoing humanitarian assistance, and more.

Emphasis mine. Do we need to keep hammering the point? Israel isn't providing aid. It's selling products. The behavior is logical, as you say. But you can't then pretend that this is evidence of some joint existential struggle.
False.

This is a justification of why Israel isn't providing aid like other players. Not a refutation.
Also false.

I used the term weapons for a reason. My knowledge may be outdated, do you have evidence of Israel supplying weapons to Ukraine?
Yes.
8 Patriot batteries were withdrawn from Israeli service years ahead of time while Israeli skies were under peak threat.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
A little anecdote about RoE then and now, and how even during war the RoE can often be more strict than in peace time. Both are told in Hebrew to a local audience and include some terms that are difficult to auto-translate so I'll translate short versions.

These are 2 veterans doing reserve combat duty.
First is Cass, talking about RoE right now during SIW (Swords of Iron War).
He says he saw children aged 10-12 laying charges along a route in his AO. They drive a cart, stop every 20 meters, lay a charge. He spotted 4 points.
He later provides additional context saying the route goes through a tent neighborhood 2.5km from the border. "They're laying charges inside a humanitarian zone ahead of an expansion of IDF activity. In the process these children and other civilians could die... and I won't be surprised if at night some Gazan will trip the charge and Israel will be blamed".

The RoE-relevant part is: "One of the considerations not to respond is not that these are children, but that it's right in the middle of a populated area".

Another, David Lisovtsev, also a quality OSINT source, talks about an event during the 2018-2019 March of Return.
"A child with a school backpack arrived in the area. Our observers noticed him taking out explosive charges. As opposed to Cass's story, mine has a better ending.
Our RoE permitted firing at anyone with explosive charges, regardless of age. This child was eliminated via sniper fire."

Why is this still an anecdote? Because the circumstances are indeed different. Cass told about charges laid for a future confrontation. It's no different from building fortifications, they're not an immediate threat, except you're also doing a lot of friendly fire in the process. David talks about charges laid for immediate military action and breaching of the border for an October 7th-like event.

Perhaps the rationale is that this tent city would be evacuated before IDF entry so civilians would be spared having these charges blown up by/near them.
In legal terms, this means the default NCV even during war, is 0.
In practice, however, it means a lot of Hamas activity goes without response even when done in broad daylight under the IDF's watch.

This is where I ideologically diverge from LOAC+IHL. I believe military strategy should be proactive, not reactive. 2.5km from the border, a sniper can't really do much. But there is technology that would allow eliminating those laying the charges without risking detonating them.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I've grown skeptical of such reports, but I hope it's true because that's the approach I advocated for since the war started. It can only have a positive effect IMO:
Either we get our hostages back, or we permanently gain territory which shortens our borders and increases the distance between Hamas and border communities. The latter will be used to further pressure Hamas into releasing hostages.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What difference is it if it's the same or not? Your argument is pointless. It is irrefutable that Israel has provided far more aid to Ukraine than the entire continent of Europe has provided to Israel in return.
If I hand a dollar to a homeless man here in the USA, it's obvious I've done more to help the homeless in America then the entire country of Russia. But who cares? It's not a relevant comparison. And the lack of European aid to Israel doesn't support your argument about the "axis and allies". It runs directly counter to it. There is no axis, there are no "allies" in the sense of being opposed to the "axis". There are many different countries, with their own interests, and their own view of the situation. The token and non-military of aid of Israel to Ukraine runs just as counter to your view as the lack of European aid to Israel.

By your logic, help to Ukraine must only be measured in tanks, so anyone donating aircraft is irrelevant. Or only measured in aircraft, so anyone donating air defenses is irrelevant.
You brought up tanks. I figured I would point out that it didn't really look like that.

The truth is you simply don't understand the complex logistics involved in running a war. It seems you believe it's all about how many tanks and APCs and howitzers one has, but you're missing the entire industry behind it.
Is it your assertion that Israel plays some sort of significant role in the complex logistics of keeping the Ukrainian armed forces functioning? If yes, please elaborate, if no, what's the significance? The claim that Ukraine wouldn't be able to make use of Israeli armor, arty, or other big ticket items is simply not true. Ukraine has adapted to and made use of a dizzying array of equipment, and no doubt would be able to make use of Israeli equipment. The ability to deliver the equipment physically exists, quite a bit of the equipment is compatible with other western equipment, namely those M113s, if Israel and Ukraine really were allies on the same side of an existential struggle against an axis, it would be completely possible.

At a time of peak de-industrialization in Europe, Israel's industry was ready to deliver anything requested of it, and it did. Since the war in Ukraine began, Israeli defense factories cranked up their output tremendously and prioritized Europe over any other customer.
Defense industries as in companies? Or was this a state-level action?

You don't understand the meaning of "coincide" and confuse it with "coincidence".
Whereas "coincidence" typically means multiple events occuring simultaneously in an unexpected way,
the term "coincide" means multiple events occuring simultaneously. Not in an unexpected way.
And indeed the point of that sentence is that there's causality. Israeli exports to Europe spiked - because of the war in Ukraine.
Sure. Israeli weapon producers were all for making good money. They're not alone in this. What does this have to do with the wider point? You can't point to this spike in export as evidence of Israel being part of some grand alliance against the powers of evil. It isn't that. It's a logical step from market players in response to an increase in demand. You're wandering far afield, away from the fairly clear points I made.

Logistics are the problem. Not in delivering the actual things to Ukraine, but to assure Ukraine of steady supplies.
The big unknowns are:
  1. Who will fund it? Israel doesn't have the money. It has to come from The US or EU. Neither are particularly keen on funding competing products.
  2. Who will produce it? Israel produces a large variety of items but when it comes to bulk production, it outsources to the US.
The US is up to its ears in debt. The US also doesn't have the money. It has the borrowing power, but that's not the same. Is Israel short on borrowing power? Or is it that Israel wants someone else to eat the costs? Again it doesn't look like they're part of some joint struggle against the axis.

Israel doesn't have a surplus of M113s. Their old age means anyone out of operational use is kept for parts or used as a UGV.

None is asking anyone to donate to Ukraine, but to supply whatever is available. The big issue is availability, not money. Israel is helping to bridge the availability gap.
It seems like you and @swerve have this perception of Israel that it's some superpower, but really it's just a tiny nation fighting for survival against hostile neighbors all around, being asked by the world's largest economical bloc to save it from a former superpower.
The EU is asking Israel to save them from Russia? Sorry, did I somehow miss the news? When did this happen? My perception of Israel is a small country looking out primarily for itself, and being willing to deal with the devil incarnate if it helps Israel. Not that of a country on the side of "light" standing in a principled battle against the forces of "death". Hence the willingness to deal with Russia, China, and anyone else that Israel finds useful.

Not even going to respect that with an answer.
I'll leave this here. For the first one, the last 3 paragraphs I think are key.


Good luck to Ukraine operating electronics meant for aircraft it doesn't operate, munitions it has nothing to fire with, BMS it has no suitable tanks to put in, EW equipment it doesn't have the ships to put on etc.
Or did you really think defense trade is all about selling M4s and AKs?
Howitzers, loitering munitions and other small drones, light armor and MBTs of just about any type would all be welcome. Again the point remains is that Israel did not spend their own money, their own resources. They in fact made money on sales. That is not aid. It might be helpful, it might be beneficial, it might be welcome, but it's not aid.

Yeah, every year I watch those investor conferences of defense companies that you so casually dismissed.
Fair enough. So Israel as a state actor isn't in play but private Israeli defense enterprise is making strategic decisions about where to direct their exports? Or what exactly was stated at those conferences to lead you to this conclusion?

Air defenses, aircraft, radars within and without a national early warning array, ongoing humanitarian assistance, and more.
Do you have any specifics? I've only see the radars piece. What air defenses and aircraft do you mean?

Yes.
8 Patriot batteries were withdrawn from Israeli service years ahead of time while Israeli skies were under peak threat.
Sure. Any evidence that they have gone to Ukraine? I'm not aware of those 8 batteries showing up yet, but perhaps I missed it.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
And the lack of European aid to Israel doesn't support your argument about the "axis and allies". It runs directly counter to it. There is no axis, there are no "allies" in the sense of being opposed to the "axis".
You believe my argument references the WW2 era western allies vs Nazi axis. It is not. And I have repeatedly said that:
1. These are loose formations with far more dominant self interest than mutual interest compared to WW2 or Cold War.
2. The Axis is more unified than the west.

This aligns with my reference to Europe not as an existing military power, but as one merely waking up. They have a lot to do before they're a coherent force, like political realignment, rearmament, and legal reforms to enable joint action.

I already conceded that we won't see eye to eye on that. Your worldview is narrow. Mine is wider. I don't understand why you keep bringing this up.

The token and non-military of aid of Israel to Ukraine runs just as counter to your view as the lack of European aid to Israel.
The non-military Israeli aid to Ukraine does not run counter to my view. And the military aid only supports it.

You brought up tanks. I figured I would point out that it didn't really look like that.
As an example of planned aid, not as example of fulfilled backfilling aid.

Is it your assertion that Israel plays some sort of significant role in the complex logistics of keeping the Ukrainian armed forces functioning? If yes, please elaborate, if no, what's the significance?
Yes. I already elaborated. I cited exact figures for Israeli defense exports to Europe between 2022-2023 and that 2024 results are predicted to be even higher. All this serves European rearmament in areas they're lacking, including valuable ToT they'll need to start manufacturing items for themselves that'll eventually feed into Ukraine.
Without countries like Israel and South Korea, Europe would have to invest greater money into setting up local R&D and production and would prolong lead time for deliveries to Ukraine by years.
Poland for example is buying American and Korean AFVs simultaneously. When its armed forces are saturated, additional units could be manufactured to relieve older AFV types recently urgently received, to aid Ukraine.


The claim that Ukraine wouldn't be able to make use of Israeli armor, arty, or other big ticket items is simply not true. Ukraine has adapted to and made use of a dizzying array of equipment, and no doubt would be able to make use of Israeli equipment. The ability to deliver the equipment physically exists, quite a bit of the equipment is compatible with other western equipment, namely those M113s, if Israel and Ukraine really were allies on the same side of an existential struggle against an axis, it would be completely possible
Name 1 vehicle or weapon Israel could deliver from its own stocks or production to Ukraine.
Do not include items already sent, e.g. Patriot systems, or items explained non-feasible like M113.

Defense industries as in companies? Or was this a state-level action?
Both.
Defense companies self-manage manpower to a high degree. The state decides to whom to grant and prioritize export licenses, what manpower to draw during war, and of course let's not forget that 2 (Rafael, IAI) of the 3 (Elbit) large defense companies are state owned with all that implies.
There was common interest between the government and private sector, and within the general DIB, to prioritize Europe. It makes sense from a political, industrial, and financial point of view.

Another critical political decision was to not reciprocate to UK's and Spain's arms embargo on Israel, and to continue defense exports to them.

Sure. Israeli weapon producers were all for making good money. They're not alone in this. What does this have to do with the wider point? You can't point to this spike in export as evidence of Israel being part of some grand alliance against the powers of evil.
It's not. You're conflating the existence of an alliance and axis with the topic of aid to Ukraine. Once you see Israel does a lot to help Ukraine stay on its feet, you go around to saying there is no western alliance. Once you see that there is, you go around denying Israeli aid to Ukraine.

Arms trade is an inherently political endeavor. There are some who wish to trade with all, for example Turkey. But the vast majority only trade within a certain political sphere. It's a bilateral action. Arms importers will generally lean toward suppliers that share a worldview and political interests/alliances. And arms exporters will generally lean toward selling to those who share their worldview and political interests/alliances.

The principles at play are rather simple. As an importer I would not want my supplier to sell to my enemy. As a supplier I would not want my customer to resell to my enemies.
As such, we see how the west (US, NATO, MNNA) and east (Russia, China, Iran, proxies) typically trade within themselves, and not with each other. Both seem to occasionally trade with entities loosely aligned with them but as an exception rather than the rule. Usually if that happens it is to buy their alignment.

Israel's arms exports are very typical of western trade patterns. Its customers in Asia are aligned against China, in Europe aligned against Russia, and in MENA aligned against Iran. In Latin America and Africa aligned against those aligned with Russia, China, Iran.
This means there is an inherent political framework to Israel's defense exports, very similar to the general west's.

The US is up to its ears in debt. The US also doesn't have the money. It has the borrowing power, but that's not the same. Is Israel short on borrowing power? Or is it that Israel wants someone else to eat the costs? Again it doesn't look like they're part of some joint struggle against the axis.
1. Israel is a frontier nation against Iran. Not only is it part of the joint struggle, it is a leader in it.
2. Israel's borrowing power has been vastly diminished during the war.
As you can see, Israel borrowed a lot of money to fund its own war effort. The Lapid-Bennet government of 2021-2022 brought a massive reduction of debt through smart policies, down to 60.7% in 2022.
Populist Netanyahu policies increased it slightly to 61.3% in 2023. The war brought it up to 69% in 2024.
[Debt as % of GDP]
There is also the fact Israel's credit rating dropped multiple times with a current negative forecast. So yes, Israel does not have borrowing power right now either.

1742890835838.png

3. Massive disparity in economical power between Israel and US means the US can definitely help fund items that would cripple Israel economically. The transfer of 8 Patriot batteries to Ukraine was only made possible after the US passed an aid item that increased production and expedited delivery of David's Sling systems and missiles. Else Israel would have to keep the Patriots operational a few more years.
If the US was to commit more funds to the project, it could even facilitate deliveries to Ukraine if Israel's own stocks were full.
Israel's higher PPP for defense products, e.g. ~$5-6M per MBT vs $20-30M in Europe, or $700k per interceptor vs $3-4M in USA, means the US would gain more bang for the buck compared to other aid items, and the money would still mostly flow to the American DIB. But I'm assuming the matter of competition is of higher priority here.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
The EU is asking Israel to save them from Russia? Sorry, did I somehow miss the news? When did this happen? My perception of Israel is a small country looking out primarily for itself, and being willing to deal with the devil incarnate if it helps Israel. Not that of a country on the side of "light" standing in a principled battle against the forces of "death". Hence the willingness to deal with Russia, China, and anyone else that Israel finds useful.
You want Israel that spends 5% of GDP on defense in peacetime and double in wartime, still in the middle of a war, to provide even more aid to Ukraine when Europe refuses to help Israel. How else should I interpret that?
Are the Patriots not enough? Are the radars not enough? Do you also want us to disband 2 armored divisions to give to Ukraine? Do you also want our entire stock of howitzers and MRLs? Half our air force?
Hello, we're in the middle of a war here, and struggling for equipment ourselves.

I'll leave this here. For the first one, the last 3 paragraphs I think are key.
All words, none of the nuance. You say "last 3 paragraphs" but perhaps miss the essence of the 3rd paragraph from last. You also again conflate intent with capacity.
For Israel, Turkey is the greater evil compared to Russia. That's because Turkey can actually act against Israel and it does. Russia would not have been a factor if the EU actually dealt with it in the first place, instead of colluding with it against Ukraine.

Howitzers, loitering munitions and other small drones, light armor and MBTs of just about any type would all be welcome.
Howitzers are going to Europe to backfill. If that's not enough, do consider that perhaps Israel does not have the industrial capacity to build more. Its howitzers are mostly built in the US.
Loitering munitions are something that needs ramp up of production and funding. Israel spends 5% in peace and double in war. Europe spends 1.5% - 2% in peace and about as much in war. Where are the European orders for Israeli LMs?
Do you really expect Israel to fund it when Europe does nothing?
Light armor and MBTs from where? All of Israel's current production goes toward fulfilling its own needs.

Again the point remains is that Israel did not spend their own money, their own resources. They in fact made money on sales. That is not aid. It might be helpful, it might be beneficial, it might be welcome, but it's not aid.
The definition of "aid" is "help given". If it is helpful, it is aiding. Ukraine is greatly helped by Israel's DIB support of European rearmament and Israel's equipment donations to Ukraine. Helped more than perhaps any country in Europe relative to size of population and economy.
Ukraine is also helped by Israel's ongoing war effort. Every resource spent to battle Iran is a resource US and Europe didn't have to spend doing so.

Fair enough. So Israel as a state actor isn't in play but private Israeli defense enterprise is making strategic decisions about where to direct their exports? Or what exactly was stated at those conferences to lead you to this conclusion?
The majority of Israel's DIB is state-owned, not private. But even the private sector is intertwined in government strategy. You think Israel's DIB operates similarly to how it operates in the US or Europe perhaps, but it does not. It is a well balanced ecosystem. That is also why I have on numerous occasions explained that Europe should prioritize creating defense-DIB ecosystems as a first step of rearmament.

Do you have any specifics? I've only see the radars piece. What air defenses and aircraft do you mean?
Patriot. Israel had approximately 8 batteries at its peak. It started gradual withdrawal in 2021 but that in itself is almost meaningless as these could have been transferred to MLMB, a secretive security apparatus tasked with securing Israel's strategic sites. Alternatively these could have been transferred to a reserve. When I last visited Palmachim AFB in central Israel there was a battery stationed there.
They were split into 2 regional divisions, each with at least 4 batteries. By the time Israel announced it'll withdraw them, in the context of Ukrainian requests, it had operated at least the southern division tasked with protecting Israel from drone incursions, particularly from Yemen.

In January 2025 it was first reported, after planes were seen flying from Israel to Poland, that ~90 interceptors were transferred directly from Israel to Ukraine. The systems themselves, receiving Israeli but not US upgrades over the years, will have to be refurbished and improved over an uncertain amount of time in the US before they're ready for shipment, so Ukraine would receive modernized systems. It's not known how many interceptors Israel had and whether some had to be sent to the US for refurbishment first. Sales of such interceptors to Israel in the past were not reported as far as I'm aware.


Israeli F-16C/D were given to the 115th "Red Squadron" in 2017. The IAF recently withdrew its single seat F-16C from that squadron. While the IAF is currently receiving F-35s, it's at a much lower rate than the retirement of F-16s and such quick withdrawal is draining available airpower more rapidly than the IAF must have initially planned. These are not obsolete platforms, by the way. They are in flying conditions are typically are sold to private aggressor companies or offered to countries looking for a lower end solution. This isn't directly related to Ukraine, but the timing is curious, so close to the withdrawal of Patriots and two-seat D variants not being clearly better for IAF needs. In American hands these could be used to support Ukraine's current fleet of older F-16s, or just generally support the global F-16 pool from which the US draws to support Ukraine.

Sure. Any evidence that they have gone to Ukraine? I'm not aware of those 8 batteries showing up yet, but perhaps I missed it.
Interceptors were sent. That one you saw. There were more flights from Israel to Poland since, whose contents went unreported, though not necessarily Patriots. More permanent components like radars and auxiliaries are most likely in the US right now for refurbishment and revitalization, as there's quite a lot of standard American upgrades to catch up on. Raytheon being OEM means it can't be done in Israel or Ukraine.
As you are probably aware, aid commitments take time to fulfill.
 
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