KAI KF-21

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Could any other country join KFX?
That's up to ROK decision, KFX is their project. If they can find other Partner to tag along as Junior Partner like Indonesia, then technically as Senior Partner and the owner of project they can do it.

However so far they still can't find anyone else willing to tag along as Junior Partner. US able to attract many International Partner (other term on Junior Partner) when they're developing F-35. Seems ROK hopping for that, as basically they're still own 80% of the project (60% under the government and 20% under KAI). That 20% under KAI is actually what they hope to be taken by another Junior Partner. However so far they haven't find another taker.

Considering how the only Junior Partner they have still shown some Financial commitment issue, I do believe internally they're hoping on finding another partner. More Junior Partner tagging along also will open potential export market.

Urelated the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia just formed an block to contain Pres Xi.
That's already in Political issue, I don't think it's belong to this thread. There's no block within ASEAN so far that aiming to anyone.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Put this article for ROK media Joongang. The writer has bit nationalistic jinggo, but I put it as it shown the development of latest KFX/KF-21 facilities in KAI. The article in Korean, but the sites have capability to be translate to english.

What the article point out:
1. KAI facilities and their domestic partner chain already prepared for full fabrication on overall KF-21 parts.
2. Any development for Blk 2 or Blk 3 (which KAI predict will be full Gen 5 standard), will need further development cycle. Means further investment from current development that limited into only Blk 1.


Also KAI build their KF-21 facilities with seperate budget from what they already pour into development of KFX/KF-21.

This just to shown (as this thread talking also on Indonesia participation on the project), that the present program only for Gen 4.5 Blk1. Further involvement for Indonesia on Blk 2 or Blk 3 need further investment, as Korea put it on seperate development program. Thus not automatically Indonesia will have access on KF-21 blk2 or blk 3 programs.

This is again shown what snippets that I got from 'finance' people on the program is true:

1. The owner of the program is ROK and KAI, while DI only tagging along,
2. Further Investment needed asside 20% involvement on development project to build Industrial Infrastructure for KFX Indonesian version.
3. Involvement with only 20% in the program, means Indonesia will not have 'license' toward building all parts (most likely only 20%), and there's no guarantee that the parts that build by DI will be used for any export KF-21 to other customers that KAI got.

I tend to believe information from 'finance' people then DI people. DI people as one just put in Kompas TV tend to 'cover' from public the fact, Indonesia involvement is as Junior Partner not much different then Industrial Licensing. The so call Joint Development agreement does not make Indonesia ownership on the program IP. Everything still own and control by ROK/KAI.

Finance people also already see the so call Joint Development agreement. It is by principe not much different with the International Status of International Partner in JSF (F-35). The status as partner not providing any ownership on the program. This in fact like Turkey that can be boot out from JSF/F-35 program, when US decide too. They just later on going to decide how to compensate Turkey on their 'shares' in the program.

So can Korea got other potential Partner to involve in the program, can they bring new one ? Off course they can. Can they bring other different partner for further development on Blk 2 and Blk 3 development ? Off course they can. Afterall more partner means more export potential.

So it is 'delusional' by some so call analyst in Indonesian media or fanboys in online forums that put Indonesia participations on the program is essential. With or without Indonesia, the program still going. Indonesia participation is minimal and just like Turkey in F-35, replaceable.

Will Indonesia stay in the program ? Again 50:50 until the payment 'dues' on program development is being paid.

Will Indonesia build their own Prototypes ? Back to condition that all the dues being paid and DI already got Investment to prepared their own facilities. Perhaps they can do it on existing facilities if the prototypes basically only final assembly from KAI parts.

Will Indonesia going to commited for 50 KF-21 Blk 1 as being put in original agreement ? That's back to Defense Budget capacities. Do Indonesia (especially next Administrations) have still enough capacities for another Fighter program after they have to paid Rafale (and potentially F-15ID) ?

That's the step that has to be taken. Paying out the dues will only mean Indonesia stay in the program. However not automatically means DI involvement in production until further Investment in DI for additional facilities, and even those steps two being taken, does not mean automatically there will be Indonesian version of KF-21 unless next administration willing to procure them.

Because all those steps practically different program and each need different Investment. This is how real projects management work.

Add:
I wrote this as Kompas TV put comment from DI People that Rafale agreement and KFX agreement is different.


In one hand he's true that the agreement construct is different. However even he admitted that Rafale agreement also has Industrial participation. However what that DI guy not shown to the public that Joint Development in KFX doesn't mean Indonesian as co-owner (as he's try to implied with 20% shares ownership). In the end Indonesia only got some part of Industrial relationship, thus not much different then licensing. That's DI people try to cover.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

KAI told in Singapore Airshow they are planning to fasten production schedule from 2026 to 2024. Thus two years ahead. Seems the initial production aim to full fill ROKAF 3 sq first. Not surprising as ROKAF need fast replacement for their F-5E.

KAI claim there are interest from Asia and Euro region for KF-21. This is not surprising as I have put before, KF-21 packages will gain some interest from more advance Developing Nations that are looking for advanced fighters but with more economical packages. Still even KAI admitting that export license from US needed, before they can move with export. Thus it is potentially can limit some of their Export potential. ROK need to do more lobby with US on that. I so suspect KAI will work something with LM on export side.

As for Indonesia, well even big defense publication like Sheppard put doubt whether Indonesia still have enough capacity to take 50 KF-21 as planned. Especially after commitment with Rafale and DSCA for F-15ID.

Like I put in previous post, even the dues are paid. There's no guarantee for DI involvement in production of KFX until further Investment in their infrastructure being build. Let alone those 50 KF-21 procurement that will have to get more Political commitment on top of that.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
According to KAI, the KF-21's first flight is scheduled for July 2022. And the development of the KF-X's new active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar is also in an advanced stage. So very soon any form of Indonesia 's participation in this project will be not useful anymore.

 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
So very soon any form of Indonesia 's participation in this project will be not useful anymore.
It is still useful as licensing holder in order to secure KF-21 first export market. That's the fact that delusional Indonesian fan boys can't accept.

The other fact is that with Rafale, putting KF-21 Blk1 in Inventory only create redundancy as both of them more or less provide similar capabilities (this off course only if KF-21 Blk1 shown proven performance results as designed to).

Many Indonesian and Korean Fanboys already claim KF-21 is much better then current 4.5 gen like Rafale, Euro Fighter, Gripen and F-16V on the online forums. However those base on their prediction on Blk 2 and 3. In the meantime those can only happens if Blk 1 perform as expected.

Let's see how Blk 1 going to perform. In the paper again, it's only design to compete with existing 4.5 gen already in the market.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The performance test of its indigenously developed active electronic scanned array (AESA) radar, meant for integration into the KF-21 fighter aircraft, will start soon.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

From Bemil Chosun on ROK Indegenous AESA radar for KF-21. Unfortunately in Korean. However at least still can be seen by the tone of Interview, they are quite confident on the Progress. We also can see the interior of 737 being used as Flying Test Bed, and glimpse on the monitoring posts.

Add:
From Korean Arirang News, on the more video of the KF-21 AESA radar. Shown the mock up ofbthe radar and the prototype.

 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

From Bemil Chosun on the further progress for KF-21 AESA radar system. Regretfully the slides frm Hanhwa is in Korean. However it is profide enough graphic information on the progress.

This is seems part of this seminar conduct by Kodef.


Main point of the seminar seems how future integration of F-35A, FA-50 and KF-21 as mainstay of ROKAF future Orbat combination.
 

Arji

Active Member
@Ananda Have Indonesia reached an agreement regarding the financing of the 20%? I heard there's no change with regard to the amount, but we're paying in installments and by using commodities (CPO).
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Have Indonesia reached an agreement regarding the financing of the 20%?
If you mean the legality of agreement negotiation, then they already reach it Nov last year. I believe it is put in this thread couple pages before. However if you mean if there're money being allocated to pay the dues, not that I know of yet. Even if Indonesia going to pay with commodities it is not means 'paying' with commodities. It means Indonesia paying the cash, but counter trade by partner on buying commodities. Still it is just rumours, as no deal on that kind of counter trade payment being talked.

Remember asside paying the dues, to continue participating on indonesian version of KF-21, they also need to prepared fund to build Fighter Jet line in DI. Some talk in Indonesian overzelous enthusiast (diplomatic way call Fanboys), talking about the money for investment on KF-21 line in DI already being prepare with Parliement agreement for IDR 3 Trillion Capital Injection toward Defend ID as State Owned Holding Company on defense Industry.

However that kind of enthusiasm is shown very naive thinking as those equivalence of USD 200 mio has to be divide to improve capacity line from various SOE defense industry. LEN need capital to improve their electronics fabrication. There're rumours that I heard on Political drive for LEN developing specialised semiconductor capacity for defense equipment. Pindad need huge investment to increase their facilities, as present one is much below standard of modern heavy equipment and automotive industry.

Even DI themselves I believe will prioritise any injections to help them enlarge their N219 manufacturing line. After all this is the product they can hope to improve their cash flow situation.


KAI need USD 88 mio to build KF-21 line, and if DI only build smaller capacity line, it is still need USD 40-50mio investment. KF-21, is complex Fighter project which even not as par yet with F-35, however using large amount of composite materials and other process that has not yet available in DI. DI has composite materials facilities (legacies from Habibie era), but even I'm no airframe engineers, knows it is not suited for present days gen 4.5+ fighters like KF-21. It is also need upgrade to keep up with tech progression.

So if any Fanboys think Defend ID will invest that kind of money on top priorities project like LEN, enlarging PAL and Pindad, even DI N219 and Black Eagle MALE line, well good luck on their dream.

In short I still not see this project getting prioritise funding over other priority projects that I mentioned above. I might be wrong, but I always follow the money trail, rather then listening on 'just' political talk. So, yes politically this project already reach agreement. However how to fund it, still not clear.

That's why on Indonesian Navy thread, I talked on many discussion, bargaining and reprioritising still happen between MinDef and MoF plus Bapenas.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group


Korean online media shown preparation of KF-21 prototype doing first flight schedule next month. Indonesian flag still printed on the prototype fuselage. Shown Indonesia still 'officialy' in the project.

This is KAI project with DI as junior participant. Whoever say otherwise, and try to enlarge DI contribution from actual very minimum in the project, really delusional on the fact until now. KAI going alone on all prototype, on all development, shown DI involvement is actually only to gain know how under KAI supervision. They (KAI) never needed DI, and this's very clear within Finance People understanding. ROK need Indonesia as potential first export market with potential underlicense production. No more than that.

So Politically Indonesia already give agreement to continue with the project. However it's doesn't mean definitely will stay on. Remember how this administration hold off the continuation of DSME 1400 second batch ? Thus any agreement still can be call off, especially if money trail do not follow. Again, until money trail shown and paid, anything can happen.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
So basically throughout their two term, this administration practically not making any commitment for this program after 2017. This is when they decided to hold the payment for renegotiation.

By pushing production from 2026 to 2031, they can avoid Investment need for building production line. As with 2026 production target, they need to do Investment on production line before their term end in 2024. In short they push this program for next administration to decide.

Means Indonesian commitment for this program will be depends on next administration political decision. So Indonesian commitment to this program decided by SBY, and renegotiate by Jokowi then push it to next administrations. Nice move to make a program continue in limbo.
 

Toptob

Active Member
So basically throughout their two term, this administration practically not making any commitment for this program after 2017. This is when they decided to hold the payment for renegotiation.

By pushing production from 2026 to 2031, they can avoid Investment need for building production line. As with 2026 production target, they need to do Investment on production line before their term end in 2024. In short they push this program for next administration to decide.

Means Indonesian commitment for this program will be depends on next administration political decision. So Indonesian commitment to this program decided by SBY, and renegotiate by Jokowi then push it to next administrations. Nice move to make a program continue in limbo.
Hahahaha!!! This one is for the next government to decide!!! Where have I heard that before?!? This happens here too, the only problem is that the next government will usually be some combination of the same people and they still won't want to take a decision...

Anyway, I've never seen any good reason for Indonesia to be involved with this program anyway. Better just drop it entirely, that would be better for all involved. Indonesia is not being a very trustworthy partner and this would just be adding more types to a fleet that looks more like some eclectic billionaire's aircraft collection than an air force.

Would it help if the forces (in this case the air force) increase their power vis a vis the political class?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I've never seen any good reason for Indonesia to be involved with this program anyway.
This program already become political the moment Indonesia tied in with ROK lead program. The problem is this continues indecision limbo. Politically they say Indonesia still in, but so far don't want to commit money trail on this. If they are pushing this time line back, theb just shown how this project become more as political baggage to push down.

Personally I just want to see proper consistant decision making. Whether in or out, not in limbo. Well afterall Indonesian political circle and bureacrats still like "projects".
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Seems the Vlogger provide better video latter on. The first one seems being done early in the morning, while this one on latter stage. Shown preparation include take off run.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

More official video on KF-21 Taxi trials. This is already closing in on first flight trials, and despite Indonesian Flag is still in this prototype fuselage, no news on Indonesian payment.

I already put in Indonesian AF thread, if still want to commit with this Project, drop one of procurement project. Either F-15 or Rafale and used that funding to invest on production facities in DI and commitment for 50 KF-21 as MOU commitment.

Personally I prefer ditch F-15, goes with Dasault on Rafale licensing. Then use the facilities as preparation for KF-21 licensing. This is just based on affordabilities issue. Well, enough of my ranting.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Congrats for KAI and ROKAF for the first flight of KF-21 prototype. As usual for DI and TNI-AU, pay your bill first ;):D (if you still want to participate). (Note change the video with the one from Korea Defense Blog, seems bit better in quality).

Add more from Bemil Chosun:

 
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