KAI KF-21

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Nice video from KAI on KF-21. This video seems prepared for recent ADEX 2021, and seems it is the longer version from the videos of KF-21 that circulate recently. The last portion of Video shown KF-21 working in formation of KAI version of loyal wingman.

This video shown the loyal wingman concept use KAI's UCAV, while there's other picture and video during Adex that shown the loyal wingman concept used converted FA-50.

For Indonesian that still support KF-21 to be produce/licensed by DI, just take a look on KF-21/KFX production facilities that being invested by KAI. Is DI can afford to build that ? I know DI also has composite 'cooking' facilities (courtesies from IPTN Habibie era), but take a look of level automation that KAI invest on that facilities.

The level of Investment to build that in ball park can be similar with Indonesian overdue payment contribution with KFX program. Is there even any hints on money trails for that ? So paying the dues (which still no final commitment on that yet) is not means DI will be ready to 'license' KF-21 production in their facility.

This is why the 'finance' people has to calculate overall costs, and calculate how much production commitment need to be fullfill to make all the Investments (in Development and Supporting production facilities) can be make sense. All that compare to 'licensing' other fighters, or just procured others with some off set agreements.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Thank you for sharing, but i dont think its necessary to get stressed/upset about fanboys and people who claim that Indonesia still plays an active role in the development of the KF-X.
You dont need to be a genius to know that until 2024 there is absolutely no political willingness to be part of the program.

The only chance that a (licence) built KF-21 will ever be assembled in Bandung is after 2024, and it will be also an very small chance, almost 0.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
dont think its necessary to get stressed/upset about fanboys and people who claim that Indonesia still plays an active role in the development of the KF-X.
No I'm not upset with those fanboys ;). On contrary I'm fell sorry for them. I see what circling around in other forums, twitters, You Tube channels of 'millenials' that think DI actually already have capabilities to produce Fighters under current conditions of Human Resources and Facilities.

I saw some other Indonesians that try to point out the obvious that DI is far from ready, got hot rebuttal by those fan boys base on their fantasy arguments. So I wrote this just for any Indonesians that read this forum, to be more realistics.

DI capabilities on building Turboprop, is not the same with participating on building a 4.5 gen Fighters. The 'finance' people also learnt that KAI offer for DI only doing assembly and build small parts is also related to DI capabilities and existing infrastucture. KAI actually wiling to provide more workshare to DI, as long as DI improve their facilities to KAI standard. This means much more investment then just paying the dues.

That's why I proposed to switch from KF-21 to FA-50 as it will be more in line with DI own capabilities, facilities and learning curve. Even that there will be more Investment needed on DI infrastucture, but less then building parts for KF-21. Is simple KF-21 are much more heavy on composites and other advance materials compare to FA-50 that using more materials DI already more familiar with.

Just trying to get more Indonesians defense enthusiast to be more realistics and not falling to fanboyish mentality :).
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Add:
ROK seems really try to make KF-21 as effective assets for ROKAF. Their video clearly shown KF-21 will be the backbone of future ROKAF operation.

So the current plan for KF-21 to be procured for 100-120 as F-5 and F-4 replacement will not stop there. In the end KF-21 will be ROKAF F-16 replacement. Questions will be how to reduce the costs if the Junior Partner can't committed on the number of Fighters will be procure (or even be procure).

How KAI make the costs of KF-21 will be comparable to others more mature 4.5 gen fighters in the market ? How to make the like of Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines or even Vietnam interested ?

At this moment the only way that I see to do it, to replace their F-16 faster then plan with KF-21. Increase their own KF-21 population first. The initial calculation on the project was 170-200 KF-21 Population with 120 ROKAF and 50-80 for TNI-AU. This's where their own calculation of cost per fighters coming from. They (ROK) should find contingency finding other customers fast or increase their own population, considering their Junior Partner still in 'limbo' situation.

I suspect they have to subsidise some of the export effort for KF-21 in order to make the cost competitive enough.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Break or In for Indonesia. If this Yonhap article sources right, then it's a good thing ROK push Indonesia for final negotiations. This Drama is just getting to long.

Push Indonesian Administration on definitive answer. Either in or break from the Project. If 'In' what's Indonesia commitment not only on payment due but also further Investment in the project. If 'Break', what's then ? Working to other aero Project or just cut for good with KAI/ROK co-op.

In the end has to come to business decision, and not just 'political' stand point. Money talk, and money trail has to be shown, not just cheap talk.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
For the non-Indonesians, keep in mind that the negotiation isn't being done by the finance ministry or office of the president. It's by the Indonesian defense ministry.

It's also on record that the defense ministry did not budget the KFX share payment on 2016 and 2017 (Indonesian language article) and suddenly requested three years worth of money to the finance ministry in 2018, without providing the documentation necessary.

The finance ministry can't disburse payment if the defense ministry didn't ask for it. Also they can't disburse payment without proper documentation. I concluded that Ryamizard, the defense minister at the time, do not actually want the KFX. Whether the current defense minister, Prabowo, wants the KFX remains to be seen. Indonesia's economy is big enough that we can pay the $420 million overdue payment (though perhaps not as a single lump sum immediately, given the way national budgets work), but Prabowo must clearly say yes and override the various factions in the air force, none of which championed the KFX. I personally don't think Prabowo wants the KFX either. He'd rather buy Rafale or F-15. I think he's mistaken, but he's the defense minister and I am not.

The Widodo administration doesn't micromanage the various ministries so if Prabowo agrees to continue KFX I expect it will be continued and if not then it won't. Widodo isn't going to override Prabowo's decision here. The KFX project isn't his baby and I think Widodo also believes in the myth that an ex-soldier automatically understand defense matters better. (yes, that's a myth. like other people, some soldiers are incompetent, and they are prone to Dunning-Kruger effect. Even for the competent ones, being good at one specific field doesn't automatically mean being good at some other field)
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

So the deal that's been reach so far is to keep 20% of shares on the project, while the overall payment will be stretched into 2026.

But Indonesia will provide in-kind payments for 30 percent of its share, the details of which will be discussed at a later date.
This's knowing Indonesian Politics that still can provide problem in future. First the payment will be stretched toward 2026. Means some payments will be held by next Administration. Will the next administration going to commit ?

Also thus 30% of the payment will be set off by some other deals. It could be counter trade or off set. The details not clear yet.

One other thing that's still need to be detail first is the work share. Thus it's can mean another Investment for DI need to be done. Something that's not clear how far this administration wants to commit on that.

Moreover Indonesian media and officials still silence on this. Will have to see on that.

Add:

Prabowo's himself more interested to talk with his Malaysian counterpart and showing off Pindad.


It can means that it is just coincidence. However if he or this administration put that importance on this project (which should be more Strategic as this talk on future TNI-AU fighters), then they can arrange better scheduling.

I just see this as part of Political play to shove the problem toward next administration. Next administration that has to deal with final payment and next Investment commitment.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is the official Indonesian MinDef comment on the deal with ROK DAPA on KFX continuation participation. When you read Indonesian Political statement, you have to read what between the lines.

Dalam pertemuan tersebut, Sekjen Kemhan Marsekal Madya TNI Donny Ermawan Taufanto, M.D.S. dan Menteri DAPA ROK Mr. Kang Eun Ho menyaksikan secara langsung penandatanganan Joint Agreement tentang negosiasi ulang program pengembangan bersama KFX/IFX antara Dirjen Pothan Kemhan Mayjen TNI Dadang Hendrayudha dan Wakil Menteri DAPA ROK Mr. Choi Ho Cheon.
This statement clearly stated the Joint Agreement on renegotiation. Thus it is means the renegotiation is not finish yet. They only agree on base standpoint for further step on renegotiation.

This is why I still reserve my doubt that the deal is not finish yet. On Indonesian Political commitment so far, this means there're details negotiations ahead yet. Don't be thinking it's only part of technicalities. Technicalities can prolong the negotiations and buying time to 'shove' the finishing deals toward next administrations.

I understand those Indonesian defense enthusiats that hoping this is a done deal. However read between the lines of Indonesian MinDef official statement. It's agreement on basic position for continue the renegotiation process. It's different standing point language then the ROK DAPA. This is shown there's still different political will standing between Indonesian MinDef and ROK MinDef/DAPA.

This's what I'm already said within this thread and Indonesian AF thread. The Indonesian commitment can only secured if there's enough money trails being committed.

Again Indonesian commitment on this program has to be shown by money trails on two things:
1. Money trails and clear technical payment schedulles for all the dues on this development stages.
2. Further Investment commitment toward building neccesary Infrastructure on assembly the IFX version in DI facilities.

Without that it is means the next administrations political commitment can not be lock yet toward this project. Just like Jokowi's administration that decide to go with this prolong renegotiation steps on something that already commited by SBY administration.

On the deal it self, that 30% payment being bartered with trade deals is something that I'm worried about. Trade deals does not means Indonesia pay it with commodities. That's something missleading. Trade deals means 30% portion of payment will be reciprocally paid back by ROK with ROK buying something else toward Indonesian goods or Investment on off set.

Again the devil always in details. SU-35 deals for example go prolong and in limbo not due to CAATSA only, but it's prolong due the technicalities on trade deals with Rosoboron. Then coincidently CAATSA come (which being used as 'excuse' to put it on limbo up to this moment). So don't underestimate the potential prolong negotiations due to technicalities on this 30% trade deals.

When Indonesian MinDef offcialy still call the yesterday deals as part of renegotiation, then it's shown where the Political standing on Indonesia lay. Still in part of renegotiation, but they agree that there's further agreement standing as base to move forward.

In short, it is not what some fan boys of IFX thinking as done deal yet. The official MinDef shown it's still part of renegotiation. However it's renegotiation forward with a base on common standing agreement. This is Indonesian political standing saying the negotiation is not over yet.

Remember in Indonesia, anything can change unless the money being paid, and the assets delivered. So follow the money trails on payment due, and money trails on if there's any further Investment in DI for this project.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
According to DAPA (so the official Korean line), there has not been any large change in the KF-X/IF-X agreement (although they may be bending the facts/lying by omission).

Indonesia is still paying for 20% of the development costs, as agreed. However, it has been negotiated that 30% of Indonesia's share will be paid with goods in a barter transaction (Specific terms and conditions, what goods will be given to Korea, are to be negotiated later).

This is what the Korean officials want to 'sell' to the public, so it will be interesting to see what the Indonesian side will say about the deal/any concessions.

Source: 보도자료(상세조회) | 방위사업청
I see you're already post this news also. I just also just put it on KFX Thread. Yes, bit interesting the Indonesian side (media and officials) are bit silence on this.

Like a saying says; 'The devil in details'. This deals if it's confirmed from Indonesian side still provide some Political problems. What's the 30% trade payment will be, will the next administration still commit, and will further Investment needed, will be done in future.
Its amazing that you guys can read and understand the Korean language.

But like someone already said here.
|"Again Indonesian commitment on this program has to be shown by money trails on two things:
1. Money trails and clear technical payment schedulles for all the dues on this development stages.
2. Further Investment commitment toward building neccesary Infrastructure on assembly the IFX version in DI facilities."|

And this is just a "Joint Agreement for even more renegotiations". Nothing has changed yet! Almost nothing. It is almost like a political trick to extend the situation of undecision.

I dont understand why they are doing this, probably i am too dumb for that.

Janes has also uploaded now their article about the sixth bilateral working-level meeting. I wonder how many will follow.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
amazing that you guys can read and understand the Korean language.
I have automatic Google translate setting to English in my device. It's a Samsung :D.

Janes has also uploaded now their article about the sixth bilateral working-level meeting. I wonder how many will follow.
Jane's article basically repeat more on Korean DAPA announcement. Which if we see Indonesian MinDef official announcement, again there's subtle different position betwen the lines.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

From TNI-AU official FB pages. The ROK DAPA Minister visit TNI-AU chief. This's the visit after yesterday signing on continuation of KFX renegotiation agreement base. Again that's MinDef official statement.

The language from TNI-AU chief is also keep neutral with TNI-AU supporting defense assets co-op with ROK. Meeting with TNI-AU shown continue lobby still needed with the users too.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
KAI schedulle still put 2022 as the first flight of the type. So far KAI seems still on schedulle, lets see how they are going to keep it.
 

anan

Member
What possible specs might this aircraft have relative to other inexpensive 4th gen fighters:
---Jas 39 Gripen
---HAL Tejas
---CAC/PAC JF-17 Thunder
---Chengdu J-10
---Mikoyan MiG-29
---Sukhoi Su-35
---Shenyang J-16
---(have I missed any major skews?)
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
It's newer Airframes.


I'm bit reluctant to talk on specs of an Aircraft still in development relative with those in the market. For me, all the specs of an Aircraft still in development means it's still speculative.

However just like the video that I just put, you can check lot off online speculations of the capabilities of this KF-21. Try bemil chosun, I think as Korean defense online sources, it's quite balance.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Korean media put another video on KF-21. Overall not much different from the other videos being put before. However in this video shown preparation for the 3rd and 4th prototype. One of them seems a double seaters.

By previous agreement, it's been agreed that DI will manufacture the 6th prototype. However with Indonesian continue ambiguous position, and moreover no clear Political and Financial/Business will to provide DI for investment on Jet Fighter facilities, then it's more likely KAI will build the overall prototypes.


Similar time, another Korean Media put video on T-50 and derivatives. Again for me, if Indonesia still shown not enough commitment either financial and Political for KFX project, just negotiate with ROK to switch partnership toward T-50 licensing.

It's more appropriate with the level of Investment and DI own capabilities to start working on licensing LIFT/LCA, just like Habibie plan on the 90's. In the end it's just another licensing anyway. However this one is more appropriate with DI learning curve anyway. Better be more realistic with Financial and Tech capabilities.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
http://instagr.am/p/CZ0_cLph-Vh/
From Instagram of Dadang Hendrayudha DG of Baranahan (Directorate in Indonesian MinDef that handle procurement of defense infrastructure).

Shown visit from KAI Director for KFX program. This within a day after his bos and French defense minister sign order for Rafale.

I do hope he say: "Talk is cheap money talk, then show me the money". The Korean perhaps saying you ordering Rafale, ordering F-15EX, FREMM, Arrow 140, A400M, so don't tell me you don't have the money to pay your dues in KFX.

If I'm on Korean side, I'll push Indonesian side to shown the money and not delaying the payment dues. Afterall Indonesian MinDef doesn't mind to order expensive stuff from Euro and US sources.

Well I do wish best of luck to Korean to push Indonesian payment and not commitment talk anymore. This is just getting ridiculous.
 

anan

Member
Why is Indonesia investing in so many related skews?

Any way to estimate the life cycle cost of the KFX versus the F-15EX?

Could any other country join KFX? (Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore?)

Urelated the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia just formed an block to contain Pres Xi. This could expand to include India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand. Doing joint military R&D (such as KFX) would be a great way to strenghten this block.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Urelated the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia just formed an block to contain Pres Xi. This could expand to include India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand.
Do you have a source for this please.
 
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