KAI KF-21

[Sandhi Yudha]

i can understand that PT DI and other supporting BUMN can't achieve it right away, they will need more time and more research to reach that level.

But is it worthed to make those learning process faster by asking more ToT or more right of this KFX by contribute more??
previously it's 20%, then went down to 18% for the same mount of ToT...
let's just say 22-25% for more ToT n right....

even though i believe the next question would be, do we have that much money..??
or how much difference that 5% would make..??

During SBY-period, the agreement was that Indonesia would pay 20% of the budget for participation in the design and a certain amount of ToT. In the last years the IPTN-engineers do not participate anymore because of the unwillingness of the Jokowi-administration to pay. With other words, Indonesia missed many chances to gather enough expertise, knowledge and experience in developing (stealth) jetfighters. And even if the whole 20% was paid, i can't believe that Indonesia will be ready to develop an own stealthfighter, even an aircraft in the class of Hawk Mk.200 or TA-50 will be a miracle. I mean do we have companies in the same calibre as Hanwha Systems, LG and Samsung?

Besides that, do you think that the Indonesian government, and specially the Jokowi-administration is willing to spend billions of $ in developing an own variant of the KF-X or a new fighter?
I believe that the whole negotiating process by the Jokowi-administration is a theatrical act to let the Indonesian participation stuck and to force an Indonesian withdrawal. And it is up to them who to blame, the SBY-administration, the Koreans, Covid-19.....

So, answering on your question
"do we have that much money?"...
Yes, undoubtly.

But it is all about the political willingness on how much there will be spend on defence and the aerospace industry.

 

[Ananda]

As a Banker I have watch many Industries learning curve. Whatever your Industry is, the basic learning curve is more or less similar. It begin with you learning from other people design (as sub contractor or license holder), then you move toward collaboration with other parties to build and design together (as equal partnership, or you lead with other parties as consultant), later on you begin to move to work on your own design.

All of that depends on how much you are willing to invest on developing your own RnD. The more advanced your learning curve stages, the more Investment that you need to put.

Thus on this Fighters Jet program, DI basically still in first stage. Again as Junior Partner, DI basically only learning and follow the lead from KAI. DI engineer only work with KAI lead design project, no more no less. KAI before achieving this stage, already moving to second stage when they're developing T-50 with LM help.

do we have companies in the same calibre as Hanwha Systems, LG and Samsung?

Adding to what Sandhi comments, it doesn't matter whether Indonesia got 20%, 18%, or 23% or even 40%. Cause at this stage we do not have aerospace Industry and supporting industry that have enough Tech Know How to develop their own tech or even integrated necessary off the shelf tech to support Fighter program. It's simply because no Indonesian Industry already received opportunity to involved on Fighters program. So whatever the license program that will be decided, whether continue with KAI, Dasault or even LM, it's "still" part of early stage of learning curve.

The way I see it on many Industries, there's no 'jump' on learning curve. You have to follow each stage, cause that's how you build your know how. You can "speed it up" by Investing more, but you still need to follow stages of learning curve.

 

[chiphocks]

All of that depends on how much you are willing to invest on developing your own RnD. The more advanced your learning curve stages, the more Investment that you need to put.

Thus on this Fighters Jet program, DI basically still in first stage. Again as Junior Partner, DI basically only learning and follow the lead from KAI. DI engineer only work with KAI lead design project, no more no less. KAI before achieving this stage, already moving to second stage when they're developing T-50 with LM help.



Adding to what Sandhi comments, it doesn't matter whether Indonesia got 20%, 18%, or 23% or even 40%. Cause at this stage we do not have aerospace Industry and supporting industry that have enough Tech Know How to develop their own tech or even integrated necessary off the shelf tech to support Fighter program. It's simply because no Indonesian Industry already received opportunity to involved on Fighters program. So whatever the license program that will be decided, whether continue with KAI, Dasault or even LM, it's "still" part of early stage of learning curve.

The way I see it on many Industries, there's no 'jump' on learning curve. You have to follow each stage, cause that's how you build your know how. You can "speed it up" by Investing more, but you still need to follow stages of learning curve.

that's exactly why i think that this is a good opportunity to start those process.
we have a demand, partner, budget even though right now it's not that much.
at least this will increase the capability of our industries to a certain point.
and if they don't push it, those stages of learning curve will consume more time and more effort with no guarantee that this kind project will happen again.

maybe after this project end, we still won't able to make high tech stuff like the AESA radar, missiles, jet engine or simply a fighter plane in the same or less capability to KFX.
but at least we will make more progress to design and build a better, more complicated air plane than what we've build now.
either using that knowledge for a fighter plane, or others

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

that's exactly why i think that this is a good opportunity to start those process.
we have a demand, partner, budget even though right now it's not that much.
at least this will increase the capability of our industries to a certain point.
and if they don't push it, those stages of learning curve will consume more time and more effort with no guarantee that this kind project will happen again.

maybe after this project end, we still won't able to make high tech stuff like the AESA radar, missiles, jet engine or simply a fighter plane in the same or less capability to KFX.
but at least we will make more progress to design and build a better, more complicated air plane than what we've build now.
either using that knowledge for a fighter plane, or others

Sounds like a good plan, but sadly your government isn't agree with you.
We should actually thank God that the N219 and Elang Hitam UAV projects are not cancelled by this current administration.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia need to build it's own production line. That's mean put more money to build IFX assembly toolings and jigs, which's not cheap.

Below the article on how ROK/KAI going to Invest on state of the art production facilities for KF-21. Just as reminder, that asside has to begin paid up of its commitment arrears payment that dues. Indonesia if wants to recommitted to the project has to prepare Investment on IFX (or they can call it IF-21) production facilities that will not be cheap.

KAI prepares smart factory for KF-21 fighter

Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is planning to develop a new ‘smart factory’ to support the production of its new KF-21 Boramae fighter aircraft.

www.janes.com

Perhaps the facilities will not be as sophisticated that KAI build. However will also be at least close to KAI facilities standard. If KAI already prepared the KF-21/KFX facilities on certain standard, then the IFX/IF-21 need to be close to it. It will create difficulty for standardize the work, if the facilities not close to par.

This will add the bills on top what Indonesia payment dues and commitment. Will they (current administration) willing to Invest additional costs ? As now they only build empty facilities building in DI (and call it IFX facilities).

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

But still nothing about the payments...
As long the government refuse to pay, it stays with empty wishes and promises.

Indonesia asks for S. Korea's support to cover tech gap in joint fighter project | Yonhap News Agency

By Choi Soo-hyang SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) -- Indonesia has asked South Korea to help it...

m-en.yna.co.kr

 

[ngatimozart]

But still nothing about the payments...
As long the government refuse to pay, it stays with empty wishes and promises.

Indonesia asks for S. Korea's support to cover tech gap in joint fighter project | Yonhap News Agency

By Choi Soo-hyang SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) -- Indonesia has asked South Korea to help it...

m-en.yna.co.kr

Deep pockets and short arms you reckon?

 

[Ananda]

KF21 지상하중 테스트

지상진동시험용 구조시제 1호기비행하중 보정시험을 위해 시험고정구를 장착하는 구조시제 2호기 ...

bemil.chosun.com

Bemil Chosun shown further ground test being done by KAI for KFX/KF-21. You can see the level of Investment that KAI prepared especially on supporting infrastructure.

Now there's still Indonesian enthusiasts even Politicians that very sure Indonesia will still continue on the IFX version. Again talk is cheap. Aside from unpaid development costs that still due, there's also no additional Investment that being poured to DI for supporting infrastructure to manufacture IFX prototype and test them.

 

[anan]

What is the latest on: KAI KF-21 Boramae - Wikipedia ?

Will any other country join in this effort? Turkey?

Theoretically could any other country join in this aircraft's development?

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Turkiye was interested in joining the KAI KF-X program, but only as an equal partner, not as a junior partner. Thats why Turkey later decided to develop an own fighter: the TAI TF-X.

Theoretically could any other country join in this aircraft's development?

Theoretically, yes.

 

[anan]

Turkiye was interested in joining the KAI KF-X program, but only as an equal partner, not as a junior partner. Thats why Turkey later decided to develop an own fighter: the TAI TF-X.

This strikes me as foolish. Turkey can't afford the R&D on her own. With South Korea and Indonesia, there would be large economies of scale.


Theoretically, yes.

Potentially, which countries? Presumably not Japan? Not India? Not Russia or China? I don't think Iraq's, Thailand's Jordan's, Saudi Arabia's, UAE's, Egypt's, Algeria's, Peru's, Colombia's, Argentina's, Chile's, Mexico's, Nigeria's, South Africa's aerospace industries are advanced enough to merit consideration? Why would Brazil join? Canada? Or would one of these be a suitable joint R&D partner?

Which European country are you thinking about?

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

| "The MND said in a statement that the new long-range air-launched missile recently underwent an aircraft separation test, with ADD footage of the test showing the weapon being launched from a Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF) F-4E Phantom II aircraft. The missile has been slated for use by Korea Aerospace Industries' (KAI's) KF-21 Boramae low-observable fighter aircraft, which is being developed for the RoKAF.

According to the MND, the new indigenous missile is currently in the research and development stage and the recent flight test verified its ability to successfully strike a target after being launched from the aircraft." |

South Korea testing several new missiles amid tensions with Pyongyang

South Korea's Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced on 15 September that its Agency for Defense Development (ADD) has been developing and testing a range of new...

www.janes.com

This new missile will definitely extend the strike range and increase the firepower of the KF-X.

우버人사이트

사람들이 모여 인사이트를 공유하는 장

uberin.mk.co.kr

 

[Ananda]

유용원 TV

차세대 전투기 KF-21 '보라매'와 스텔스 무인 전투기의 유무인 복합체계 작전 영상

tv.naver.com

Video (from Bemil Chosun) on KF-21 concept with KAI 'loyal wingman' type UCAV following in operation. This video has create some 'wild fantasy' with some Indonesian defense fanboys on how Indonesian IFX will work in similar concept within end of this decade.

There's no guarantee on Indonesian paid the dues, there's no guarantee that Indonesia will pour more money in developing IFX let alone loyal wingman type UCAV, and the most important thing there's 'still' no guarantee yet on even what type of Fighters that Indonesia will commit as TNI-AU next generation Fighters.

While KAI and ROKAF continue their progress with this program, regardless what will happen with Indonesia commitment or not. Why even some Indonesian fanboys still fantasies that DI/Indonesia participation matter on this program ?

That's what Junior Partner means, someone that just come along, buying the license, got involved in some design work (as followers). Nothing else, whether Junior Partner still in program or not, it's not matter with the program continuation.

Anyway good luck with KAI on the program. It's their own hard work program. As for IFX, if Indonesia still continue on the program, it is nothing more than licensing agreement.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

A new and very nice promotion video, with some top level computer animation/CGI. It looks better than most promotion videos of other defence companies, who are sometimes using computer animation technologies from the '90s.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1446425089457541123

So it's up to the Indonesian government, pull out of the project now and spend the limited budget on the F-16, F-15 and Rafales, or ordering just one squadron of F-16V and T-50I and keeping the rest of the jetfighter budget for the KF-X.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia fails to execute KF-21 cost-sharing agreement

Indonesia had agreed to pay 20 percent of the cost for the development of South Korea’s KF-21 Boram…

www.donga.com

The opposition in ROK is asking why the Government practically still continue try to engage Indonesia, try to keep Indonesian technicians engage in KFX/KF-21 Projects. While Indonesia it self continue has not shown to honor it's financial commitment.

This's what I have wrote sometimes ago. Eventough there's still shown indication that ROK administration wants to keep continue engaging Indonesia on defense Projects, however it has to go both ways. There'll be internal push in ROK if Indonesia still eluding it's financial commitment. In the end money talks, and talks is cheap without the money trail to follow.

This still can be opposition talk, but closing to ROK own election time, it can develop to Political issue. If Indonesia still doesn't shown it's financial commitment, why should ROK try to keep end of their bargain ?

Indonesia try to change the Submarine batch 2 partner (eventough already sign preliminary commitment with DSME). Indonesia only engaging continues negotiations on KFX financial commitment, while still doing other expensive defense procurement from other vendors. Does that give ROK confidence that Indonesia serious to continue engaging ROK as serious defense partner ?

I always question the Political will of this administration on KFX for sometime now. Seems ROK internal politics now going to push ROK administration to decide whether keep or break with Indonesian commitment on KFX.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Indonesia fails to execute KF-21 cost-sharing agreement

Indonesia had agreed to pay 20 percent of the cost for the development of South Korea’s KF-21 Boram…

www.donga.com

The opposition in ROK is asking why the Government practically still continue try to engage Indonesia, try to keep Indonesian technicians engage in KFX/KF-21 Projects. While Indonesia it self continue has not shown to honor it's financial commitment.

This's what I have wrote sometimes ago. Eventough there's still shown indication that ROK administration wants to keep continue engaging Indonesia on defense Projects, however it has to go both ways. There'll be internal push in ROK if Indonesia still eluding it's financial commitment. In the end money talks, and talks is cheap without the money trail to follow.

This still can be opposition talk, but closing to ROK own election time, it can develop to Political issue. If Indonesia still doesn't shown it's financial commitment, why should ROK try to keep end of their bargain ?

Indonesia try to change the Submarine batch 2 partner (eventough already sign preliminary commitment with DSME). Indonesia only engaging continues negotiations on KFX financial commitment, while still doing other expensive defense procurement from other vendors. Does that give ROK confidence that Indonesia serious to continue engaging ROK as serious defense partner ?

I always question the Political will of this administration on KFX for sometime now. Seems ROK internal politics now going to push ROK administration to decide whether keep or break with Indonesian commitment on KFX.

|"The DAPA plans to hold a sixth working-level meeting to start implementation of the finalized agreement, but Indonesia is postponing approving the agreement by citing the COVID-19 pandemic and internal working-level review process. The South Korean agency has sent five letters requesting the convening of working-level talks since April. Indonesia sent a reply to inform the agency of its intention to hold a working-level consultative meeting late July, but has yet to take action.

According to a contract between the Korea Aerospace Industries and Indonesia, the agreement includes a provision suggesting that if a party fails to pay scheduled contributions more than twice, each party shall have its technical staff’s participation and access to development materials denied, but Indonesia, which has failed to pay its share of contributions since 2016, has been dispatching technical staff to the KAI since last month."|

A hopelessly unreliable junior partner.

A 6th, 7th or 20th working-level meeting will not solve this problem.
I think the South-Korean government also knows that they shouldn't expect something from our current administration. Maybe they are just pretending they still have hope and trust into the Indonesian government, and accepting this situation because of Indonesia's order for some more T-50Is.

 

[Ananda]

To continue working on with KFX it's not only the dues that Indonesia has to paid, but also the additional Investment for DI to build the supporting IFX facilities.

It's just the same when you working with a Partner on building something, and the Partner continue avoiding to paid out his share, stating financial problem. At the same time, that partner talk to everybody else how he wants to buy new Mercedes.

How some People in Indonesia think that Indonesia is still a good partner with ROK ? This administration doesn't even want to tell the truth whether they have will to continue 'Investing' with the program. All they're doing is keep delaying. Well there's the limit on ROK patience, that's what that article point is.

 

[Ananda]

Behold South Korea’s Very Expensive Stealth Fighter

For all its unsurprising features, the KF-X still is likely to cost a lot of money. And that should cast doubt on its future.

www.forbes.com

One thing that I laugh when reading some parties in Indonesia talking on how important Indonesia contributions to KFX program, or how fanboys in Indonesian forums keep talking how Indonesian engineers is very important on contribution to KFX program. Well lets see the fact shall we:

1. Of 20% that Indonesia must paid (around 1.7 T KRW/Korean Won), Indonesia only paid until now 220 mio KRW or 13% from 20% which is 2.5% of total development cost. However ROK continue build KFX program unhindered financialy.
2. The DI engineers that being talked by some over nationalist fanboys as very important, has not involve in the program for close to two years. In fact before that their involvement have been reduced, due Indonesian unpaid due (no matter how DI officials try to mask it). However is that hindered KAI engineers on developing the KFX program tech ?

The answer is big 'No'. This shown ROK or KAI does not need Indonesia or DI contribution actually on developing KFX. What they need from this 'fricle' Junior Partner is more on 'Market' for their KFX to reduce overall cost of each airplane.

The article above that I put, shown how the population of one fighter program is Important to reduce overall cost. Some nationalist fanboys and media comentators just taking for granted some DI officials that claim how important their participation in KFX, not realising those DI officiaos just to gather public support, to make Government continue pumping money for their work share in KFX.

But the truth is still there. Whether Indonesia or DI continue involvement or not, is doesnt matter for KFX progress. That's the truth. Indonesian money and Engineers contribution is doesn't matter on the program. Without Indonesia and DI, ROK and KAI can go ahead alone, because it is their project, their IP and they actually have enough money and tech to finish it without this fricle Junior Partner.

They only need Indonesia as Junior Partner to enlarge KFX population from begining in reducing the overall production cost. Not for development and certaintly nor for Tech and Engineer contribution.

SBY administration from begining already stated that KFX involvement was to give Indonesia/DI learning experience on involvement with other nation Fighter project. That's it, chance to learn, because Indonesian engineers does not have any experience on involvement in Fighter project. KAI already has with licensing F-16 and building T-50 to FA-50.

DI engineers work under KAI supervision no matter how DI officials try to put otherwise. It's simple, if DI owned some of the research or design of KFX from their engineers, then they have IP rights of KFX. However IP rights owned by KAI, and IFX (Indonesian version) is only 'licensing' from KFX. The rights to market that Fighters belong to ROK and KAI alone.

The article above shown the reason why ROK still need to have Indonesia as Junior Partner. They need it to increase the production size and make Indonesia as their first 'captive' market. Nothing else. If Indonesia didn't paid out the due, what they need Indonesia for ? Without Indonesia and DI, KFX will continue and fly under ROKAF. With Indonesia, they hope to reduce the flying cost per airframe.

So, if Indonesia still want to involve with KFX, and be prepared for much more money to invest from production facilities toward cost per airframe that can go from USD 70 mio to USD 120 mio. Thats calculation based on sources from ROK media it self (suggest to look at Bemil Chosun). Thus perhaps it can be the reason why some of this administration need to think more with continuation on the project.

However if they are reluctant to do it, then be honest with the ROK. Perhaps they can try regain the money that already been Invest by getting on other projects. It could means getting some more FA-50 or negotiate for FA-50 license.

Make a choices whether want to license KFX or license FA-50. Cause in the end both are licensing agreement. This if Indonesia still value ROK as potential defense partner.

 

[Ananda]

From time to time, I went to several Indonesian online sources or defense enthusiasts forums. Sometimes there're good information on Indonesian defense program outside usual media domain. If it's considered plausible I will put it in this forum, or if it's already confirmed by more reliable sources.

Anyway Today when I see one forum (don't have to tell what), and saw in one thread, one particular banned member from this forum talking trash on this forum. Usually I shouldn't be care, but since this banned member talking trash on how this forum being manage, then I decided to take time on putting some answers.

I put in this thread because he accuse me on doing deception in International forum by saying that: Indonesia/DI contribution is doesn't matter on KFX continuation, Indonesia/DI as Junior Partner basically only follow along and in the end is not different then buying license from KAI, and all ROK/KAI want is basically for Indonesia become their first export customers and need Indonesia order to reduce their production cost per aircraft (as I have put in my previous post).

Well it's not a deception, but it's the truth. All the nonsense that he wrote as counter argument, is the reasons why he got banned from this forum. Because he debating the issue with nonsense fantasy arguments.

This forum from beginning already put one of the rules, is to debate on realistic arguments from reliable sources. It's true the Mods in here are non Indonesian. However some in mods team have working connection with TNI. Thus they now what's is the realistic condition on TNI, and what TNI must do to improve it.

The members that being banned also coming from International background, thus it's not true on what he accuse this forum bias on certain Nationality like Indonesian. Take a look on how many Australian members (as example) got banned or got harsh warning from Mods team due to unrealistic fantasy arguments, and not want to change their attitude.

I might be not having close relationship with DI team (which I thank God on that cause it can clouded my assessments), but I got snippets from 'finance' people sources, which for me are much more reliable. I don't envy those 'finance' people, in fact this is one of the reasons I left my previous SOE Bank. I don't want to face Political pressure on financing some Government Projects, including on those so call Strategic SOE like DI.

DI is technically a bankrupt company. If this company is commercial ones, it's already out of business decades ago. Their livelihood because of that, also depends on how many 'Political' Projects they can sell to Government. For that they're master on selling BS in media, just like any other SOE Strategic company in Indonesia.

I have been financing many companies through out my career in several Banks. I can smell which Joint Project is genuine ones, and which one is basically only licensing. I can tell you that many 'finance' people that work in Bapenas, MoF or SOE Ministry have that capabilities on that. One of unofficial 'snipets' that I got from some them clearly tell this KFX deals with KAI is basically licensing agreement no matter how legal term put it as Joint Production as Junior Partnership. I'll take their 'snipets' any day compared to any BS that Strategic Company like DI talk.

One of their Job is trying to sell to us (in Investment and Commercial Banks), to participate in Government Projects. They have to do it because SOE Banks and Financial Industry basically already reach the limit for financing capabilities on Government Projects. This why we in Industry can assess which SOE and Government projects that make sense and which are that actually financially BS.

To be fair not all so called Strategic Defense SOE are financially BS company. Few of them like LEN actually working on right direction. That's one of the reasons why it becomes the Holding Company for Strategic Defense SOE. However DI still long way from that. I can tell you that's one of the reasons why SOE Ministry and MoF really careful on putting Investment with DI, except the ones that already agreed upon 'Politically'.

So, any Indonesian that want to talk or debate in this forum is always open to participate. As long as you can provide realistic no-nonsense arguments, base on reliable sources. Don't forget, follow the money trails. Any projects or procurement or potential development that realistically can't be back up financially, is just cheap talk. We try also to reduce cheap talks in this Forums, cause it's bordering nonsense and fantasy.

 

[Ananda]

Talks over Indonesia's overdue payments for fighter project to conclude in Nov.: DAPA | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, Oct. 12 (Yonhap) -- The chief of the state arms procurement agency voiced confidenc...

m-en.yna.co.kr

Yonhap article quote ROK DAPA source that claim ROK confidence with Indonesia to make decision on payment due in November. This actually confirmed how the negotiation already become protracted.

This indicating as previous article from donga.com related to this, as shown how this matter already become Political pressure for ROK administrations to resolve with their Indonesian Counterpart.

All this also not guarantee what the result will be, it still can go:
1. Indonesia will still go with original 20% participation (perhaps with negotiate payment schedulle or work share),
2. Indonesia will reduce the participation (and consequently work share),
3. Indonesia will terminate participation in KFX but perhaps to maintain DI - KAI connection, decide to take licensing agreement for TA/FA-50.

For me personally, considering so many 'doubt' in present administrations on benefit of KFX for Indonesia/DI learning curve in Aerospace industry development (this is part of snipets that I got from 'finance' people), better to replicate Habibie move in 90's to begin the learning curve on fighter with LIFT/LCA. Habibie's way with begin with LIFT/LCA licensing with Hawk 100/200 is make sense for IPTN (which actually more capable and better financing than DI present conditions) that time.

Again anything can happen including fourth option that Indonesia back away from KFX program alltogether, and taking some negotiations on other defense projects (not related to Aerospace) with other ROK defense Industry.

All this related to many 'doubts' in administrations (especialy from 'strategics' people) with real DI capabilities. DI at this moment just but a 'shadow' from what IPTN that Habibie created in the 90's. There are many other strategic projects that actually getting more attraction from people that handle 'strategic planning' in current administrations, then adding more Investment to DI.

I personally agree to let DI has to prove them selves able to handle new projects like N219 and Black Eagle UAV, before adding new Investment on that company.