Well it's official now because the fifth prototype has been shown publicly and guess what? No Indonesian flag on it.
KAI KF-21
- Thread starter Eeshaan
- Start date
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Too much speculations now on what's the meaning of the covering of Indonesian flag on this 5th Prototype. Some say it is simbolyse ROK Insistance that this 5th prototype (which suppose become Indonesian prototype) will not be given to Indonesian control until all payments dues being full fill.
Others (especially in Indonesian enthusiasts blogs and forum) saying it is not changing anything. They point out the symbol of Indonesian MinDef still shown under ROK flag.
Again for me, how this resolves not changing the fact, if all investment and development costs payments from Indonesia being held, as the contract stated. This 5 th proto should be assembled and parts manufactured in DI facility. This already provide DI learning curve as under license contractor.
So this whole drama really put doubt on Indonesian commitment. Nothing good coming from not showing definite resolve on any International projects. Either you in or you out, and don't put your decision in Political Limbo and Financial uncertainty.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Poland announced its intentions to participate in the KF-21 project
bulgarianmilitary.com
This Bulgarian sites claim Poland want to be participate in KF-21. The claim come from Polish magazine. Well it's not a secret that ROK try to find at least 2 'junior' partners for this project to take each 20% stake. ROK from begining only want to hold 60%, and try to find partners for the other 40%. They allready got Indonesian 20% and before try to get Turkey for the other 20%. However Turkey want to get equal footing with ROK, thus ask 40:40:20.
Now presently this 20% hold by KAI, thus teoritically KAI just sell their portion to Poland, and make 60% ROK, 20% Poland and 20% Indonesia. However just on 'devil advocate' sides, perhaps Indonesia can ask Poland to take over its portion also. Make 60% ROK and 40% Poland
.Considering Indonesian fleekish commitment so far in this project, perhaps it is a way out. They just turn over Indonesian flag in Prototypes, from Red-White to White-Red of Poland ones
.Perhaps this can also be a wake up call for Indonesian current administration for pay up or walk out.
This site is on par with Eurasian times. I would take anything in it with a massive grain fo salt.Poland announced its intentions to participate in the KF-21 project
This Bulgarian sites claim Poland want to be participate in KF-21. The claim come from Polish magazine. Well it's not a secret that ROK try to find at least 2 'junior' partners for this project to take each 20% stake. ROK from begining only want to hold 60%, and try to find partners for the other 40%. They allready got Indonesian 20% and before try to get Turkey for the other 20%. However Turkey want to get equal footing with ROK, thus ask 40:40:20.
Now presently this 20% hold by KAI, thus teoritically KAI just sell their portion to Poland, and make 60% ROK, 20% Poland and 20% Indonesia. However just on 'devil advocate' sides, perhaps Indonesia can ask Poland to take over its portion also. Make 60% ROK and 40% Poland
Considering Indonesian fleekish commitment so far in this project, perhaps it is a way out. They just turn over Indonesian flag in Prototypes, from Red-White to White-Red of Poland ones
Perhaps this can also be a wake up call for Indonesian current administration for pay up or walk out.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Agree on that. My post actually more reflecting my own frustration with current Indonesian administration commitment treatment on this project. This's not good for Indonesian 'trustworthy' image on doing International long term project.
So I put this as potential way out (if it's true on Polish intention), for Indonesia on the project. Indonesian administration got money if they really committed on the project. The fact they are still not paying (only lately provide small installment from overall due), plus not providing 'active' investment yet on IFX manufacturing facilities, shown still fleeting commitment.
Well it's just my banter anyway
.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Its just hopeless.
Looking to the available defence budget, it will be not enough to finance the current wild plans for the next 10 years, let alone to also pay our debts to South-Korea and invest in a KF-X production and assembly line.
IPTN is just lucky if KAI decides to let IPTN produce some small unimportant parts like small access doors, sun shades and cupholders as compensation for the money already paid by Indonesia.
Looking to the available defence budget, it will be not enough to finance the current wild plans for the next 10 years, let alone to also pay our debts to South-Korea and invest in a KF-X production and assembly line.
IPTN is just lucky if KAI decides to let IPTN produce some small unimportant parts like small access doors, sun shades and cupholders as compensation for the money already paid by Indonesia.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
From my understanding this KFX/IFX program development allocation use defense budget, however the DI infrastructure for production and assembly will use Direct Capital Injection. This's just like PAL got DCI from MoF for Submarine manufacturing facilities. Thus it's basically using SOE Investment allocations.
This is going to be the problem. DI already got DCI or PMN (Penyertaan Modal Negara), but despite some 'fanboys' hope on that PMN being use for IFX, reality that's being use for N219 program. This because PMN need to be shown how they are going to get the return back. It is afterall part of commercial Investment. Thus it shown even DI doesn't know how to justify commercial return on IFX program (unlike N219 which they have clearer business model).
Thus if it is not justifiable for commercial return, then IFX investment has to be given as part of non commercial base investment. This is seems that make difficult to be justifiable. DI is already money loosing company, is it appropriately to give them more investment on project that will not giving justifiable commercial return ?
On this revelation, I suspect seems nobody willing to take responsibility for that move. It is politically hot seat, and basically this is the problem. Investment in IFX is clearly political decision, thus any decisions to continue on that Investment must be also Political base motivation. Looking on that perspective why present administration want to put their political fortunes on previous administration project ? Especially previous administration is their political opposition.
This's the problem on doing projects that are being view as Political needs. Changing fortunes in political environment, will change the priority on the projects.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Terbongkar! Begini Nasib Proyek Jet Siluman KF 21 RI-Korea
Proyek pesawat tempur siluman KF-21 Boramae antara Indonesia dan Korea Selatan ternyata tidak semulus yang dibayangkan.
www.cnbcindonesia.com
This article part of Indonesian MinDef public explanation on the 'drama' of Indonesian participation in KFX program. Basically it is simply reiterate:
1. Indonesian "politically" still commited to the program.
2. Indonesian "financially" will continue try to pay up their commitment in the program. This shown already allocated some of overdue payment on 2022 and 2023 budget.
However they are 'glossing over' how much their due is, how much the due that will be, and how you are going to finance supporting production infrastructure. Base on several data on Indonesian payment and dues account; Indonesia so far only pay USD 170mio and has overdue payment of USD 430mio. Even all being paid it is still USD 600mio over total commitment of around USD 1.6 bio. This as Indonesia portion is 20% of total project costs of USD 8 bio.
Thus the budget that need to be set asside for project commitment is still around USD 1.4 bio. Not including of Indonesian own Investment for DI production support facilities.
KAI prepares smart factory for KF-21 fighter
Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is planning to develop a new ‘smart factory’ to support the production of its new KF-21 Boramae fighter aircraft.
www.janes.com
Korea clearly still want for Indonesia participation not just to share RnD costs, but also share on initial production to reduce individual costs per fighter. The conservative calculation around USD 65-70mio per fighter come with assumption of initial batch order of 120 ROKAF and 48 TNI-AU order (total 168 order, got mixed up before). This means Indonesia still has to find USD 3.5 bio to finance TNI-AU allocation.
Thus by conservative calculation total costs for Indonesian participation in the program will be amounted around USD 5.2 bio for RnD, DI facility and TNI-AU portion. Something that so far can be calculated from open source, but not being talk officially by Indonesian officials.
How to finance that, is the 'talk' that seems being avoided so far. That amount still not as big as Rafale procurement, let alone F-15EX projected procurement costs. Question still remain if enough commitment to show the 'money'.
The Article in my opinion also shown it is 'questionable' action by present Indonesian administration to conduct 'two years study' on the project, bargain for more tech access, demanding export rights. In the end all back to original agreement. Thus after all this years of bargaining, present indonesian administration more or less back to original possition as 'junior partner' with acknowledgement the project lead is ROK as 'senior partner'. DI will have 'join' export rights 'under' KAI supervise marketing program. The thing that actually aknowledged by previous Indonesian admin when they join the program as 'junior partner'.
What a waste of time of negotiating. Damaging Indonesian reputation as 'trustworthy' partner on International project, and more importantly only 'confirm' back more or less original possitioning on the project.
Add:
In Previous post, I speculate to used direct capital injection to DI as part of financing KFX production facility in DI. Something that has precedent in PAL previously, when financing Submarine facilities.
This is going to be problematic as that kind of direct capital injection usually has to shown commercial justification. Something that will be difficult for DI condition, plus possition as Junior Partner.
Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kemhan RI
www.kemhan.go.id
However from MinDef sites, this meeting from MinDef RnD Bureau, seems shown it will be finance by MinDef. This is then in my book it is open aknowledgement, the project is difficult to justified commercially. Thus has to be finance by MinDef as part of Defense Procurement, and not DI or SOE ministry commercial Investment. This make it political investment and not commercial investment. Something that means no need to find commercial justification.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
A nice unofficial promotion video of the KF-X.
And, specially for our fanboys, including our flag near the canopy.
And, specially for our fanboys, including our flag near the canopy.
TayJG
Member
Is Eurasia Times an unreliable site? I haven't caught them in a falsehood yet. Only been reading them for like a week or two though.
TayJG
Member
Why would South Korea want this plane, because its main rival (DPRK) fields massive amount of cheap garbage aircraft, so that makes South Korea build a lower quality fighter as well so they can mow down herds of Mig-21/19/17/15?
www.aerotime.aero
South Korea’s second KF-21 prototype takes to the skies for the first time - AeroTime
Four months after the first, a second prototype of the KF-21 Boramae fighter jet conducted its first flight out of Korea Aerospace Industries’ facility near Sacheon airport, South Korea. Much like its predecessor, the aircraft stayed airborne for around 35 minutes, according to the Defense...
www.aerotime.aero
Would it have been so hard for ROK to give this thing an internal weapons bay?
Because while South Korea is worried about North Korea, they do have other worries, such as China and Japan. South Korea remembers they were invaded and conquered by Japan and were Japan's colony for several decades. South Korea remembers that the People's Republic of China is North Korea's backer and the one that turned their near victory into this perpetual stalemate and made North Korea the threat that they are today.
You might think that these are old history, but South Korean people had not forgiven Imperial Japan's sins and PRC never stopped flexing their might in not so friendly ways.
TayJG
Member
That's my point though. Why not develop a better plane, namely by giving the KF-21 an internal weapons bay? Because it lacks it, it is not a stealth fighter.
Ah. That. Older plans envision a block 1 without internal weapons bay because it's faster to develop that way and once the block 1 is in production, develop a block 2 that does have an internal weapons bay.
TayJG
Member
Has anyone in the military or civilian sector spoke about such a possibility?
The blog entry where the picture is from is dated 2013. Similar pictures can be found by searching for KFX block 2. Over the years there had been many presentations and displays and press releases from official sources where they talk about the plan for KFX block 1 and block 2. They are primarily in Korean language though but Google Translate can often get you the gist.
TayJG
Member
That's good for them. It pains me to see weapons stored under the wings of an aircraft that has the generic look of the most popular design for 5th generation fight jets.
The blog entry where the picture is from is dated 2013. Similar pictures can be found by searching for KFX block 2. Over the years there had been many presentations and displays and press releases from official sources where they talk about the plan for KFX block 1 and block 2. They are primarily in Korean language though but Google Translate can often get you the gist.
TayJG
Member
Domestic long-range air-to-ground missile to be developed for the KF-21
South Korea's Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) has announced plans to develop a long-range air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) to equip the KF-2
www.aviacionline.com
South Korea’s homegrown KF-21 fighter takes to the skies for first time
First rolled out in April 2021, the twin-engined aircraft bore the flags of both South Korea and Indonesia — the only foreign partner in the program.
www.japantimes.co.jp
I didn't know all of the above before.
60 FA-50 & 134 F-16V (upgraded from F-16C).
FA-50 Light Combat Aircraft
Meet the F-16V: The Most Technologically Advanced 4th Generation Fighter in the World