Grand Danois
Entertainer
But if the assembly line is part of an offset deal, then you in practical terms paid for it yourself, or huh?
JSF leads in race over Turkey's new generation fighters
- Thread starter anafor2004
- Start date
Very nice post thank you!
I dont claim that Greece is not out of equation , its a part of it. But its not the only part and not the worst part! Our problems with our western neighbor might be solved but we still would have problems because of Iran and Russia in the next decades.
Even today Turkey is surrounded with countries that have very succesfull SAMs against all modern aircraft. I personally expect Iran to have better ties with Russia as they continiue their nuclear ambition. After the latest election i am sure Ahmedinejad is lauging his ass off.. They are expected to purchase Su-27 derivatives, more SAMs and they keep developing these WMD capable SSMs with huge ranges capable of hitting both Ankara & Istanbul..
F-35 with its stealth capabilities when combined with our spy sats (also going to be operative in the next decade) and AEW&C aircraft will be able to destroy the missiles on ground if / when necessary without being detected by their radars.
IMO Turkey and Greece will have solved their problems by the next decade, we will see an increasing stability in West and an increasing destability in Middle East. The signs are out there for the ones that want to see..
I still dont understand why putting aircraft on west should mean agression on Greece when;
- more than half of Turkeys population,
- most of its industry,
- its commerce center,
- its most important trade routes,
- its most important ports (until Baku Ceyhan is fully active this wont change)
- its most important city Istanbul,
is on the west.
Besides above I have explained that the airforce is distributed almost equally. I am sure F-35 will also be distributed equally in the future as Eastern Turkey will increase in importance for Baku Ceyhan pipeline, and after the SE Anotolian Project (Chains of dams on Euphrates and tigris) is completed. however its natural that it will be the western bases that will get F-35 first (Probably Eskisehir).
Why noone considers Greek acqusition of blk52+ with JHMC and Iris+ etc an agression or when HAF aircraft are stationed on bases on Aegean islands which are supposed to be free of any militarisation? Why no one jumps around when they go for 6 AAW frigates when even Germany , France and Italy can afford a few? Why is it ok for Greece to buy 4 AIP Type 214s but not for Turkey? I know the reason. Greece is much more capable than Turkey in making a good demonstration of their case. For Greece the arms purchase and Arms Race is a political tool, to corner Turkey by the help of other major forces on bilateral issues..
Turkey will replace its 100+ F-4/RF4s with F-35 starting from 2014. By 2015 our CCIP will have completed giving us a fleet of ~100 F-35 and ~240 F-16s whose lifes extended for another 20 years for early blocks.
At the same years UCAVs are supposed to be acquired by TuAF, reducing the need for piloted bomb trucks.
At some point beyond 2020 i think there will be the need for a new fighter to replace the aging F-16 blk30/40s and then we will see whats available..
Then again it wont be a surprise if we get a squadron or two of EF-2000 on the long ans stony road of EU membership..
Dear beleg
Greece is stationing troops ships and aircrafts in the Aegean area (total number less than 35.000 personnel it is not an industrial center but a very strategic area and vital for our defence more a touristic one and 10-15% of her total population) because a few miles opposite all across the Anatolian coast facing the islands there is an entire army supported with inland airbases which daily intrude the Athens FIR (which includes also as in many countries as yours international airspace) and sometimes fly above small islands and engage with dogfights with greek jets..(i wonder if a greek military aircraft violates Constantinople/Istanbul FIR without giving flight files what would be the reaction, i guess you will not sent any jet to identify and intercept the unknown trail and you would be satisfied if we sent data files NOT TO YOU BUT TO NATO headquarters..) at least 100.000 personel, dozens of old but active landing ships in order to make assaults, artillery bla bla bla...except this hostile activities Turkey does not recognise Athens FIR she wants to be reconstructed and to include all eastern aegean islands to her Istanbul/Constantinople FIR..the same time are claims for the area of SAR responsibilities which are matched with the FIR area that Turkey claims..watch the NOTAM 714 which was dividing the aegean in two equal peaces..then we had the Imia/Kardak issue in 1996 the first time after 74years the Laussane treaty was signed Turkey doubted greek soil and considers the area as a grey zone even today though the treaty 1932delineation of the border line between the Dodecanese and the Turkish coast of Anatolia using 37 points and refers explicitly to the islets of Imia/Kardak as belonging to the Italian (and therefore, since 1947, to the Greek) side. More precisely point no. 30 reads, in the original French text:
"La ligne frontiere […] passe par les points suivants: […] 30.- a moitie distance entre Kardak (Rks.) et Kato I. (Anatolie)"..you doesnt need to speak french to understand the meaning..and right afterwards the one islet became 300 islands of unknown sovenrighty..Greece was in great imbalance of power considering the airforce thus after the Imia/Kardak events the airforce had to be reinforced...
And after all this behavior Turkey remembers suddenly the Treaties and asks for demilitarisation..
According to the American electorate it did not justify it... we have flushed 350 billion down the crapper.
He has not threatened war... he hasn't even had the guts to enforce sanctions yet. No one is worried about the Iranian Sa'eqeh. If the best they can come up with is a downgraded F-5 E then no one is worried.
What nations have S-300s? Everything from Syria and Iran have been nothing but rumors. Anything being shipped to Syria is closely monitored by the IDF. Do you need to bomb defensless Kurds?
Why do you think the orders of JSF are constanly being cut?
Perhaps because ALL of their F-16s are A/B and over 20 years old! This is not the case for Turkey's F-16 fleet.
Do you not think we see what goes on in the Turkish military? Your fragile democracy hinges on the whim of Turkish military commanders. If anything goes against what they think is appropriate they are first to quash Turkish independence. Keeping the military out of politics is a fundamental principle to democracy and especially freedom. The treatment the Kurds have recieved is especially appalling. A nation that treats it's citizens in such vastly different fashions is another concern. This arms race your nation has begun is self destructive to the region and Turkish consolidation into the EU. The shift of the government to favor anti-US policy is another problem. In my opinion your nation is an unstable element that pays lip service to freedom and democracy. I equate the situation to the US before it's Civil War... they had citizens whom they treated as second class and quashed that freedom even though they espoused it to be given to all. I believe it is only a matter of time before Turkey blows up internally from Kurdish and radical Islamic forces and I don't think giving them top-secret JSF frames is a good idea.
Simply well put.
contedicavour
New Member
That's why most offset negotiations require investments much higher than 100% of the value of the acquired jets... last time I saw it the index was around 130-140%.
That allows for a lot of orders of parts of the F35s to be built by Italian defence industries, and for the assembly line.
Details are being negotiated though and probably will be for a long time, as the first assembled jets will (or should) come out of the assembly line around 2012...
cheers
contedicavour
New Member
Just a couple of remarks ... although I'm not an expert of Turkey, I've visited Istanbul twice recently and read a lot about its politics since Ataturk's times. Turkey's military are a reliable bulwark against any risk that radical Islam may one day take over. That may not 100% fit with the ideal of democracy we cherish and fight for in the West, but do we have a single example of Western-style democracy working flawlessly in the Middle East ? 
I would thus rely more on Turkey's armed forces maintaining the heritage of Ataturk than on the currently governing politicians. Especially if the EU did something as controversial as derailing the accession to the EU negotiations.
The very sensitive situation in the south-eastern provinces inhabited mostly by Kurds is an almost insoluble equation, though I would be careful before antagonising too overtly Turkey's government. We've got (by we I mean the US and Western Europe) enough problems already in the area, let's not make them worse !!
cheers
I would thus rely more on Turkey's armed forces maintaining the heritage of Ataturk than on the currently governing politicians. Especially if the EU did something as controversial as derailing the accession to the EU negotiations.
The very sensitive situation in the south-eastern provinces inhabited mostly by Kurds is an almost insoluble equation, though I would be careful before antagonising too overtly Turkey's government. We've got (by we I mean the US and Western Europe) enough problems already in the area, let's not make them worse !!
cheers
That's all fine and well but we need not give them JSF. When I hear how Turkey can be trusted to uphold democratic ideals and upholds the pursuit of freedom I don't laugh... I scoff. They are supposed to be the shining beacon on the hill in the Islamic world. Look how well democracy works in an Islamic nation... well how well does it work? Fine until the military has to quash all freedoms. The ideals of Ataturk should be ingrained into the hearts and souls of the population by now, it has been several generations since his concepts inception. Everyone who remembers the Ottoman Empire is either dead or close to it. The thing is the arms race is on and it is very real. They are up to something... do they have designs to revive their lost empire? I don't know but I am wary. As you noted the Islamic fundamentalists have been gaining ground in the government and have been taking a rather hard line towards the US. I don't think their refusal to help us should be rewarded with access to JSF when they are on the verge of falling into a power struggle between Osama supporters, military hardliners and Kurdish seperatists.Just a couple of remarks ... although I'm not an expert of Turkey, I've visited Istanbul twice recently and read a lot about its politics since Ataturk's times. Turkey's military are a reliable bulwark against any risk that radical Islam may one day take over. That may not 100% fit with the ideal of democracy we cherish and fight for in the West, but do we have a single example of Western-style democracy working flawlessly in the Middle East ?
I would thus rely more on Turkey's armed forces maintaining the heritage of Ataturk than on the currently governing politicians. Especially if the EU did something as controversial as derailing the accession to the EU negotiations.
The very sensitive situation in the south-eastern provinces inhabited mostly by Kurds is an almost insoluble equation, though I would be careful before antagonising too overtly Turkey's government. We've got (by we I mean the US and Western Europe) enough problems already in the area, let's not make them worse !!
Turkey is a Democratic western style state but thats the surface..underneth are the Generals who move the puppets..if the puppets(politicians) do something against their power or even to doubt their power or to follow a policy on certain issues different than these the generals have approved, there are many stories of their interference..remember Menteres who was overthroned from his power as a P.M of Turkey and hunged, the Junta of the 80ys etc..i doubt if Tyrkey can ever be a pure Democratic State achnowledging the rights of its citizens as equal whether they are not of turkish origin or of a different religion or a linguistic minority..from the other side if the Generals will not have in the future the power they have today in turkish politics maybe the Turkish State as we know it today will face tremendous problems..a very controvercial and difficult issue and of course we are all out of topic.
contedicavour
New Member
I think we share the same fears, but we have different ideas on how to reduce the risk that they materialize. A very large part of the Turkish population shares Western ideals and way of life. They voted for the moderate Islamic party because too many of the mainstream parties faced corruption and trust issues. That large part of the population just wants to be recognized as close to the West and is fed up with being marginalized by the EU or of being pushed too hard by the current US administration. If we want to keep these millions of Turkish on our side, it is key not to offend or marginalize them, otherwise their pride will push them further away from us. That's why refusing to sell to them F35s is IMHO a bad idea, since it would mean considering them a second-rate NATO member.
Besides, even if the worst of nightmares materialized, ie that in 10-20 years' time Turkey went along the same path as 1979 Iran, well then let's not forget that those wonderful F14s didn't really constitute the threat that we could have imagined. Most of the Turkish Air Force personnel are extremely loyal to Ataturk's heritage and NATO, I don't see them flying F35s against fellow NATO countries even if a radical Islamist president told them to.
To summarize, I'm for a diplomatic way of sending messages to the Turkish government in order not to hurt their pride and to help out strengthen Turkey's democracy and accelerate Turkey's integration into Europe. Which btw is in Europe's best interest as our economies stand to gain from this.
cheers
The Kurds have votes & use them, so their situation isn't at all comparable with the situation in the slave states of the USA, or even that in the southern states of the USA before the Civil Rights movement. Being Kurdish has never been a bar to election, or holding public office, in Turkey - about 25% of Turkish MPs have acknowledged Kurdish ancestry. (From the Economist, 08-06-2000) "People openly identifying themselves as at least partly Kurdish have served as mayor of Istanbul, prime minister, president, even army chief of staff. Nor do they necessarily play down their Kurdishness: Hikmet Cetin, a (Kurdish) former foreign minister and speaker of parliament, likes to parade his fluency in Turkey’s main Kurdish dialect." Is that really like the USA pre-Civil War?
The rights they have been denied which other Turks have always had are those of cultural expression (though Turkish pop music charts have long been filled with Kurdish songs - but in Turkish), & those laws are now gone or going.
The Turkish state also does not like any proposals for secession - but then neither does the USA. In Turkey, the only people proposing secession have been Kurds, & the refusal of Turkey to consider it, or negotiate over autonomy led to the PKK rebellion, & the brutal Turkish reaction to it. But there's no evidence that most Turkish Kurds want independence, or are even very interested in autonomy. Kurdish nationalists get about 20% of Kurdish votes: the other 80% go to mainstream Turkish parties.
BTW, the largest Kurdish city is Istanbul nowadays. Kurds are leaving the poor, conservative south-east for the bright lights & more open society of the western cities at the rate of about half a million a year.
Have you ever been to Kurdistan, or know any Kurds?
IF Greek aircraft flew in to Istanbul FIR they would have entered Turkish. the case with Atina FIR Zone is it has more International airspace and TuAF conducts its training flights in International Zones. There is a clear difference here and ofcourse you do know it but still bring this example which has no relevance to the topic.
I dont remember that we asked for demilitarisation of the islands, on the contrary netiher Turkish Military or Turkish foreign ministry has made enough pressure on Greece over the militarisation on the islands too much since it started after WWII and extensified after 1974 which caused us to for the Aegean Army late 1970s. For me Aegean Army is a reaction which is given VERY late to Greek militarisation of Aegean Islands..
Isnt it funny tho, when Turkey puts aircraft to its more develeoped and strategical west, modern military gear , you say its an agression, but when Greece puts it its a defensive act..
Our primary concern is that Greece doesnt increase territorial waters to 12 miles. Since we both know that you wont do this anymore (after we almost made a deal during last government of Greece things wont go back to 12 miles on all Aegean anymorebut a trade off for both sides.) believe we will overcome other differences very swiftly. Infact there is already a great step forward in this since the latest visit of Chief of Gen. Staff Büyükanit to Greece. Turkish aircraft are flying unarmed over Aegean and since the visit Greek aircraft intercept but there are no more dangrous dogfights.. Its a good stepforward..
@ Big-E you are cluless about Turkish Politics as far as i can see from your remarks.. Thus i will not get into a pointless argument with you. Just be sure that an Islamist government is more of a puppet of USA/EU than an center/iberal/leftist one.. You still and still insist NOT TO GET that this order is for 2015 and beyond.. NOT TODAY!
There are so many points in your post i would like to point on but those would unnecesarily extend the post and drive it away from the main point of the thread..So this is my last post in this pointless threat.. Its pointless to argue when you talk to deaf ears. If you want to discuss western democracy, its standards , biases, hypocricy and double standards be my guest to open another topic to discuss it..
You may not like it but JSF is the next gen fighter of TuAF.. And thats very satisfying for me...
There are so many points in your post i would like to point on but those would unnecesarily extend the post and drive it away from the main point of the thread..So this is my last post in this pointless threat.. Its pointless to argue when you talk to deaf ears. If you want to discuss western democracy, its standards , biases, hypocricy and double standards be my guest to open another topic to discuss it..
You may not like it but JSF is the next gen fighter of TuAF.. And thats very satisfying for me...
PS. For fantasma: You seem to have forgotten that during the same years you were being ruled by Junta, or murdering eachother in a terrific civil war. Your perfect democracy , which denies even the basic right of expressing their Ethnicty to your minorities, makes you a bacon of freedom in the West!!! Have you gotten your medicine from the USA a few days ago?
Dear Friend,IF Greek aircraft flew in to Istanbul FIR they would have entered Turkish. the case with Atina FIR Zone is it has more International airspace and TuAF conducts its training flights in International Zones. There is a clear difference here and ofcourse you do know it but still bring this example which has no relevance to the topic.
I dont remember that we asked for demilitarisation of the islands, on the contrary netiher Turkish Military or Turkish foreign ministry has made enough pressure on Greece over the militarisation on the islands too much since it started after WWII and extensified after 1974 which caused us to for the Aegean Army late 1970s. For me Aegean Army is a reaction which is given VERY late to Greek militarisation of Aegean Islands..
Isnt it funny tho, when Turkey puts aircraft to its more develeoped and strategical west, modern military gear , you say its an agression, but when Greece puts it its a defensive act..
Our primary concern is that Greece doesnt increase territorial waters to 12 miles. Since we both know that you wont do this anymore (after we almost made a deal during last government of Greece things wont go back to 12 miles on all Aegean anymorebut a trade off for both sides.) believe we will overcome other differences very swiftly. Infact there is already a great step forward in this since the latest visit of Chief of Gen. Staff Büyükanit to Greece. Turkish aircraft are flying unarmed over Aegean and since the visit Greek aircraft intercept but there are no more dangrous dogfights.. Its a good stepforward..
@ Big-E you are cluless about Turkish Politics as far as i can see from your remarks.. Thus i will not get into a pointless argument with you. Just be sure that an Islamist government is more of a puppet of USA/EU than an center/iberal/leftist one.. You still and still insist NOT TO GET that this order is for 2015 and beyond.. NOT TODAY!
There are so many points in your post i would like to point on but those would unnecesarily extend the post and drive it away from the main point of the thread..So this is my last post in this pointless threat.. Its pointless to argue when you talk to deaf ears. If you want to discuss western democracy, its standards , biases, hypocricy and double standards be my guest to open another topic to discuss it..
You may not like it but JSF is the next gen fighter of TuAF.. And thats very satisfying for me...
PS. For fantasma: You seem to have forgotten that during the same years you were being ruled by Junta, or murdering eachother in a terrific civil war. Your perfect democracy , which denies even the basic right of expressing their Ethnicty to your minorities, makes you a bacon of freedom in the West!!! Have you gotten your medicine from the USA a few days ago?
you may forget that the atrocities and the civil war in Greece had started right after the end of WWII after the German invasion which left country in ruins (Turkey meanwhile was a neutral one waiting to see the outcome and go with the winners side) between the Communists and the Royalists and was about to determine the fate of the country's future whether will follow the East Block all the Western nations..
Our Democracy was overthroned by Juntas Generals (assisted by US to serve their interests in the area) and Greek people have paid with their lives and many others were exiled to achieve their goal to restore Democracy..tell me about the struggle of the turkish people to gain Democracy or to confront the interferrence of the Generals in politics..Today Greek Generals do not have any influence on political matters..tell me about your Generals..even Foreign states when they want to discuss very serious issues they decide to discuss them with the Generals..we talk about a total different environment and total different mentality..
Every single Greek citizen has the right to express his ideas and his ethnicity as an individual..the Laussane Treaty that Ataturk signed does not speak anywhere for Turks but a Muslim minority (a part of them yes of Turkish origin, Pomaks, gypsies)..
From the other side your perfect democracy have managed to exterminate the Rums citizens of Istanbul (of Greek origin), Imvros, Tenedos from 120.000 to less than 5000. (in greek thrace the Muslim population from 120.000 to 150.000 surely there were discriminations but not in your states level..figures talk)..what about the right of property of the Rums whom;s even today we speak as soon as they die turkish state claims their properties and they cannot handover them to their children under a secret legitimate..you talk about a muslim minority and their rights which represents the 1.5% of the greek population and you have an entire nation of more than 10million in your country and they do not have the right to learn their language at school..should be or not this an official lunguage? (even a few years ago they were persecuated not to speak their language in public tv newspapers in Kurdish etc)..maybe if you speak freely or wright something not proper like Orkhan Pamuk the one who has gained the Nobel of Literature the next step is to go on Court..Dont compare Greek Democracy with Turkish one...its like day and night...
well said beleg bro
from what i have read,here are some who have "first hand experience" about turkey and some who just heard something about turkey......
in order not to get too off topic,i will not comment on some of those quotes!
but let me say just one thing:
those who are without any guilt shall throw the first stone!!!
but still ,it´s like raining stones
from what i have read,here are some who have "first hand experience" about turkey and some who just heard something about turkey......
in order not to get too off topic,i will not comment on some of those quotes!
but let me say just one thing:
those who are without any guilt shall throw the first stone!!!
but still ,it´s like raining stones
If you mean the decline of the Rums from Turkey from 120000 to 5000 in a 50 years time as a "first hand experience" this is the level of Modern Turkish Democracy that you should be proud of.well said beleg bro
from what i have read,here are some who have "first hand experience" about turkey and some who just heard something about turkey......
in order not to get too off topic,i will not comment on some of those quotes!
but let me say just one thing:
those who are without any guilt shall throw the first stone!!!
but still ,it´s like raining stones
I only made three points on Turkish politics... 1) the Islamic party is making gains 2) they are hardlining against the US and 3) the military is in control. How you imagine I am clueless is beyond me because these are facts... not opinion. The Islamist government is not a US puppet, they are hardlining AGAINST the US, we had more cooperation from Khadafi. The timetable of this order is irrelevent to me.
I think Turkish policies and agendas are important to the JSF acquisition debate. If we just say you are getting them this is a one post thread. Understanding the motivation of the deal and a debate about it's merits is certainly approprate for this discussion. The fact that you don't want to participate in the democracy of this board is up to you.
You may not like it but JSF is the next gen fighter of TuAF.. And thats very satisfying for me...
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contedicavour
New Member
To go back to the topic, ie who is entitled to acquire the latest US jets... is there any specific decision by the Pentagon or by Congress that states who should have F35s and who shouldn't ?
Because if there isn't, whatever you may think of Turkey, you can expect that sales will go ahead. Adding 100+ orders adds to economies of scale and lowers unitary prices for the F35s that the US will or might acquire. Since the whole point in the US is how to make sure the F35 pricing doesn't escalade further, you won't help yourself by starting to curtail international orders of the jet... since unfortunately reliable democracies (UK, NL, Italy) have a bad tendency to make defence cuts and sabre orders...
cheers
Because if there isn't, whatever you may think of Turkey, you can expect that sales will go ahead. Adding 100+ orders adds to economies of scale and lowers unitary prices for the F35s that the US will or might acquire. Since the whole point in the US is how to make sure the F35 pricing doesn't escalade further, you won't help yourself by starting to curtail international orders of the jet... since unfortunately reliable democracies (UK, NL, Italy) have a bad tendency to make defence cuts and sabre orders...
cheers
by first hand experience i meant that they were in turkey for a while!
saw turkey and it´s people with their own eyes!
that´s all!
Just a question:are you also a member of the network54 military forum?
@Big-E:I respect your opinion, but no matter what you do or say,we will get the JSF!more cooperation from Khaddafi?Yeah!!!
You can buy JSF... the question, is are they going to be able to afford it. If the Democrats run both houses of Congress and you have a SECDEF like Gates in office whose priorities are to de-transform DoD then JSF orders will be cut. Cut orders means an increase in price. The US Congress has already expressed an interest to make the F-22 a better bomber and increase orders to forgoe making JSF purchases for the USAF. Talk in SWATLANT is we are never going to get our naval variants and forced to fly Super Bugs for the rest of our careers. Beleg seems to think Turkey not getting JSF makes me happy... it does not because it means I don't get it either.
We have been arguing on DT for some time about the final price and affordability of the project for RAAF and other partners. If anyone before the Nov. 7th election questioned the number of orders to be procured as more or less then the answer now is definetely less. While I see the EU rejoicing at the change in government I don't think they realize the ramifications for their defense industries. The Democrats have control of DoD purse strings and have been quite angry at Republican defense spending... it doesn't take Nostradamus to see cuts are coming with liberals running the Armed Services committee. The only thing that the Democrats will build more of is the F-22... you want that instead?
contedicavour
New Member
I'm very worried by the prospect of no navalized F35s. After the A12 cancellation, this new cut would be a huge blow :shudder . Can't USAF be persuaded to order F35B variants, a bit like RAF and RN are now sharing HArirers today (and F35Bs hopefully tomorrow) ?
With Australia onboard the list of allied countries willing to acquire F35 (often F35Bs) is getting longer.
cheers