Indonesian Aero News

Ahmad

Active Member
The problem with CATSAA is open interpretation by US alone. Biden actually more hostile to Russia/Putin compared to Trump. Thus considering the development situation including what brewing in Ukraine, do you want to take risk on that ?

Our defense assets and Economics dependency are more tied to US and it's allies. CATSAA so far only related to Defense procurement. Yes, Trump seems give more leeway on CATSAA in the beginning for maintenance. However it's more directed to countries like India and Vietnam that has more portion of Russian Defense assets in their inventory. We are not.

Anyway, even Trump got stricter with CATSAA implementation later part of his term. Mostly also due to Democrats attack that he's too soft with Putin. Biden will certainly be more confrontative with Putin. Trump never say Putin as murderer, but Biden did.

He can be tough on Putin, yes, but when it involves Indonesia, it will be a different matter. US under Biden puts multilateral relationship as center point of his strategy to go against China in Indo Pacific region where Indonesia is very important variable on that region. Not to mention the missile will likely be used to deter China aggressiveness in Indonesian part of SCS (North Natuna), particularly in relation to our EEZ. Buying missiles for Flankers is actually inline with US interest in IndoPacific region. Politician as caliber as Biden understand this and also many in congress and Pentagon, they will not see CATSA as black and white as people may think.

We are not going to face risk, what we should do is to ask Biden administration whether we are going to be allowed or not
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
US under Biden puts multilateral relationship as center point of his strategy to go against China in Indo Pacific region where Indonesia is very important variable on that region.
@Ahmad this shown again your over confidence on Indonesia importance. Remember what US done to Turkey their own long term NATO allies due to Missiles procurement.

It's your own believe on Indonesia importance to US. Good thing people in MinDef shown more caution on dealing with Russian now.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
With proper maintenance and upgrades with Belarusian and other sources' components, it should be possible to keep the Sukhois for at least 15 years.

The arrogant attitude of the US with its boycots and embargoes, make the US to an undesirable and unreliable defence equipment supplier. It demands total obedience from its allies and other countries. Also companies from NATO-countries participating in projects like the Krimea Bridge and Nord Stream 2 projects are threatened with sanctions.

But the problem is, like Ananda already said, is that Indonesia is more dependent from the US in an economic way than from Russia. Besides that Russia shows less willingness for ToT and offset projects than other suppliers, even less than the US.

Of course Indonesia needs to lobby to convince the US that CAATSA-sanctions are not necessary and yes Indonesia is a large country on a strategic place with a large population and an enormous amount of natural resources, but we are not that important that the US can not spread its world dominance without Indonesia, we are not even a NATO-country.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
The arrogant attitude of the US with its boycots and embargoes, make the US to an undesirable and unreliable defence equipment supplier. It demands total obedience from its allies and other countries
That's the problem with International Politics and Diplomacy. It's a game of bargain, give and take but also set of lines that can't be cross.

Like it or not for US, CAATSA already become their set 'lines' that being support by both Political sides in Capitol Hill. Just like Indonesia has lines of not officially put itself on the any sides. However lines is always changing, but for now seems CAATSA is the lines that US want to enforce on its Defense Politics.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
@Ahmad this shown again your over confidence on Indonesia importance. Remember what US done to Turkey their own long term NATO allies due to Missiles procurement.

It's your own believe on Indonesia importance to US. Good thing people in MinDef shown more caution on dealing with Russian now.
Not my words, US state official statement, it has been like this since I started reading it during Obama administration :cool:


U.S.-INDONESIA RELATIONS


Indonesia is a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific Region and U.S.-Indonesia relations have taken on increasing importance. Indonesia is the world’s third largest democracy, largest Muslim-majority country, the seventh-largest economy by purchasing power, and a leader in ASEAN. It possesses the world’s greatest marine biodiversity and its second greatest terrestrial biodiversity. Indonesia also borders the South China Sea, which has the world’s busiest sea lanes — over $5 trillion in cargo and as much as 50 percent of the world’s oil tankers pass through the South China Sea every year.


Dont compare us with Turkey, Turkey has made many US European allies angry and he acted like wanting to be some sort of world power, while Indonesia has always been low profile since our reformation period (1998-present), we are concentrating more on our own country development and region and refrine from making any controversial remark, although our position regarding Palestine is very contrast with US stands (something that US also understand).

You also cannot compare S 400 SAM system bought by Turkey with missile for our Sukhois that have been bought long before CATSA exists
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Not my words, US state official statement, it has been like this since I started reading it during Obama administration :cool:
My God, are you that naive that taking a diplomatic BS as a real position ?


You also cannot compare S 400 SAM system with missile for our Sukhois that
Good to think the people in MinDef is not naive like you. Suit your self in your naive believe. Try to get to you to understand real world. Seems as usual you already too deep on your own nationalistic thinking. Again we are important, but not that important for US to let us cross their CAATSA line. Don't you understand if US can be tough to Turkey, they can do the same to Indonesia. Or are you already have impression that Indonesia is more important to US than Turkey.

Now let me put in simple way. Are there any new Missiles that MinDef bought from Russia lately ? Do you see MinDef try to find other source like Ukraine for Flankers Missiles ?

Talk about Indonesia get waiver on CAATSA or not, if MinDef do buy new Missiles from Russia. Don't talk about previous deals that being order before CAATSA.
 
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Toptob

Active Member
Why would they risk upsetting the US right now over what's little more than a throwaway token fleet of Flankers? While these are planes the TNI-AU could use they never bought them in numbers that mean anything. And in the future the US will be a much better supplier than Russia because 1: they are not dependent on Indonesia's main antagonist China while Russia is and 2: have a much better track record in supporting clients in the upkeep of their assets.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
have been proven wrong when you debate on me on our Aerospace planning, so dont call people as naive and say some thing like "My God" If they are not agree on your opinion. Now just take some times and wait. Time will tell which one of us that is true in their assesment over this issue.
What have you proven me wrong on any debate with you? Only you think anyone else that debate with you as wrong. I've seen your other ID in other forums that stubbornly on your opinion.

You have constantly being point out on your mistaken view, but still stubbornly on your position. That's your rights.

However putting a diplomatic statement as prove on US position, thus point out US will give waiver to Indonesia on CAATSA is completely naive.

Just like I say prove that people in MinDef at this moment still want to order new Flankers Missiles from Russia.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Air Force is not that stupid to buy new equipment and wanting to even upgrade and refurbished some Sukhoi if they think we cannot even buy missiles from Russi
You're that constantly say it's alright for MinDef to buy more Missiles from Russia for the Flankers. Now seems you change your position, since there're no new Missiles order from Russia.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
What have you proven me wrong on any debate with you? Only you think anyone else that debate with you as wrong. I've seen your other ID in other forums that stubbornly on your opinion.

You have constantly being point out on your mistaken view, but still stubbornly on your position. That's your rights.

However putting a diplomatic statement as prove on US position, thus point out US will give waiver to Indonesia on CAATSA is completely naive.

Just like I say prove that people in MinDef at this moment still want to order new Flankers Missiles from Russia.
Big ticket deal yes, we will likely get CATSA, but for supporting equipment like missile for our Sukhoi I think US will give us waiver. If I am not mistaken we bought some land vehicles from Russia during CATSA being imposed. And again I think Biden has more tendency to works with US partners and try to avoid possibility for Indonesia to lean more toward China. Buying missile for Flankers in my assessment is not regarded as big ticket deal that will make US becomes so angry and give us sanction.

But again I like for our Airforce and gov to take precaution move , this is why in my previous post I suggest them to ask this issue first with US whether we can buy supporting equipment for our Flankers fleet. I believe they will give that waiver if they ask for it.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Buying missile for Flankers in my assessment is not regarded as big ticket deal and make US become so angry and give us sanction.
Again it's good thing that people in MinDef more caution on the risk. Which's way they have go to Ukraine and Belarus to keep the Flankers fleet maintainable and getting new upgrade capabilities.

You have been point out that in the beginning of CAATSA there's some 'lenience' that Trump shows. However by end of his term he's getting tougher. I'll already put NYT link to shown you Biden is getting tougher to Russia, thus any CAATSA waiver for Russian equipment will be harder to get.

This debate begin with you continue thinking that buying Missiles for Flankers will be waived under CAATSA for Indonesia. You have been pointing out it's not going to happen, and there's risk for CAATSA being put to Indonesia for that.

You're still have on your own believe, that's your rights. However don't put your own believe that Indonesia will get CAATSA waiver at this time around, without showing evidence on that.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
But again I like for our Airforce and gov to take precaution move , this is why in my previous post I suggest them to ask this issue first with US whether we can buy supporting equipment for our Flankers fleet. I believe they will give that waiver if they ask for i
Why do you think they haven't talk with US sides on this? If they don't get signal already from US that we will risk CAATSA for any future deals with Russia, they will not find non OEM sources in Ukraine and Belarus for maintenance or potential weapons supply for Flankers fleet.

What's being bought for Flankers including Missiles is part of original deals during SBY era. Are there any more deals recently with Russia? Think about that, before saying that MinDef people hasn't talk to US for any potential Indonesia getting around CAATSA.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

Those Belarus maintenance was started before CATSA is imposed
And your point ? Is there any new MRO in Russia after this ? You keep bringing older deals, but can you see that there's no new deals with Russia now by MinDef ? Especially on Flankers maintenance and equipments.

This's also already far deviate on your main topics of your insistence that Indonesian can get around CAATSA for Missiles deals.

You seems can't get the idea of US getting more strict CAATSA on implement them. Before you say don't compare CAATSA with Turkey, as Indonesia still can get away if this is only Missiles.

You have been told that MinDef even looking for potential Flankers Missiles from Ukraine to circumstances that. However you still want to cling on to your believe.

So, if somehow MinDef do order anymore new Missiles deals for Flankers, and US don't put CAATSA as you claim. Then I will humbly say you're right. However can you accept you're wrong if MinDef don't put anymore order of Flankers Missiles to Russia, as long as CAATSA being enforce by US ?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
contract for BMP-3 F and BT 3F from Rosoboron, Russia in 2019, that proves my point. CATSA is imposed since August 2017. Any way as I said many times, big tickets deal like 11 SU 35 acquisition can possibly get CATSA sanction.
So, Su-35 Contract also in 2019. Last effort from previous Defense Minister to get Su-35 deals. Is there any new developments on that ?

Are any of those BT3F in that 2019 already paid and deliver to Indonesia ?

You can't make arguments on Flankers Missiles and now you move on to Amphibious IFV. So let's back to Flankers Missiles. Again I will humbly say I'm wrong if Indonesian MinDef to buy more new Missiles for the Flankers, and can circumstances CAATSA. Let's leave it that way, since you're already deviate much from your initial arguments on Flankers Missiles.

However considering your other ID arguments style on other forums, when being debate by other forumers. I'm not surprised that your arguments is getting nowhere. Isn't Ahmad or Indos ?

So please, at least in this forum. When you debate something shown prove on your arguments. I already shown how US even under Biden is getting stricter with Russia, thus it's include CAATSA. I also shown how Indonesian MinDef looking to other sources including Missiles for Flankers due to this situation.

So let's shown if Indonesian MinDef still order new Missiles for Flankers and not just contract, but being delivered. All without any consequences from CAATSA. If not the debate become nowhere and pointless.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
You have been proven wrong once again, come on admit it. I said many times that big tickets deal like 11 SU 35 deal can still possibly get CATSA from my previous post. I am quite consistent about that, what I am saying and members here can witness is that supporting equipment can stil
Admitted what Ahmad ? Is there any new Flankers Missiles being ordered, Contract, or delivered ? What you're consistent off ?

Is there any order for new Missiles Flankers Missiles from Russia ? no.
Is there any prove that MinDef try to find alternative for Missiles sources from Ukraine? yes.

You're deviating and clearly not consistent on your arguments. Then you say I'm wrong. Wrong on what ?

The main arguments from beginning is that your believe that Indonesia can get waivers on CAATSA. However do you see any prove on that?

Now you're bring back arguments on Su-35 still in progress. Do you see during latest TNI Rapim any mention of Su-35 ?

Let's back again to main arguments. Prove that Indonesia can get waivers on CAATSA on procurement of new Defense equipment from Russia, which includes new Missiles.

Like I said, if you can prove Indonesia can get CAATSA waivers (especially on Flankers Missiles as that your main arguments) then I say I will humbly admit I'm wrong. However you haven't give any prove that Indonesia will get waivers on CAATSA. Now you say I'm wrong, when you can't prove that ?

Don't go anywhere on your debate. Stick on the topic. I say US will not give CAATSA waiver for Indonesia, you say otherwise. I have shown many link even to where MinDef try to find alternative due to this problem.
Do you have any prove that US will give waivers on CAATSA.

Your debate and arguments are getting nowhere. Stick to main topic. Waiver of CAATSA, prove that US will give that to Indonesia.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
I said many times that big tickets deal like 11 SU 35 deal can still possibly get CATSA from my previous post. I am quite consistent about that, what I am saying and members here can witness is that supporting equipment can still be bought from Russia like missiles for Sukhoi.
You put in your post that Su-35 deal still in progress, then you put in other post that it is not.

The debate is getting long because you can't accept arguments that Indonesia can't get CAATSA waiver. You say MinDef should ask that, and again I said, why do you think they haven't ?

If US will give waiver to Indonesia, then the contract for Su-35 already implement, those new IFV Contract already been delivered, MinDef will not have to go to Ukraine for another Missiles sources.

Again where your prove that US will give waiver to Indonesia ? All indications including MinDef behavior toward Russian procurement, shown otherwise.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
All right, maybe I'm mistaken on your claim on Su-35. However the contract is signed by MinDef in 2019 right before first term ended.

Add:
Turnout none of us got it right. There's still no contact for Su-35. 2018 they got agreement only on "Barter"deal, while Ryamirzad finish documentation for Barter deal before his term out in 2019.


Still this is not related to the topic of US give Indonesia waiver for CAATSA. Are you already have prove on CAATSA waiver to Indonesia ?
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
All right, maybe I'm mistaken on your claim on Su-35. However the contract is signed by MinDef in 2019 right before first term ended.

Add:
Turnout none of us got it right. There's still no contact for Su-35. 2018 they got agreement only on "Barter"deal, while Ryamirzad finish documentation for Barter deal before his term out in 2019.


Still this is not related to the topic of US give Indonesia waiver for CAATSA. Are you already have prove on CAATSA waiver to Indonesia ?
"The commodities part of the deal is worth US$570 million (out of the total $1.14 Billion) and here is the biggest challenge as prices of Indonesian cash crops identified under the barter- rubber, palm oil, coffee, furniture and spices- keep fluctuating,” a senior industry source told defenseword.net. “The challenge is further compounded as the commodities are to be supplied over a period of a few years. While Russia wants the commodities to be priced at their lowest mean prices, Jakarta wants them to be tagged at a much higher price,” the source added.

Indonesian Defence Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu had said in a June 2, 2019 statement to TASS while on a visit to Moscow - Indonesian defence ministry has signed documents concerning the purchase of 11 Su-35 fighter jets while the trade and finance ministries are still in the process of approval. The need for approval from multiple ministries arises as "there will be different forms of payment," Ryacadu had said.

In addition to arriving at an equitable price for Indonesian commodities, Russia wants to negotiate payment terms in national currencies to beat US sanctions on Russian defence companies. “Jakarta has not started this as yet due to concern over its impact on Indonesia -US trade with which it enjoys a $ 12 billion trade surplus,” the industry source said.
The Su-35 is a fantastic aircraft and it is very suitable to operate with the Sukhois from SkU 11, but the part above makes the acquisition process complicated and unattractive. Besides that offset projects and ToT is much better for the development of Indonesia than just selling crops and low-tech goods.


The american government is the one who created CAATSA, they are also the ones who decides which defence items are acceptable for them and which not. As DefenceTalk-members it is completely unpredictable for us which defence equipment acquisitions are allowed and which not.

It is actually weird to see that the american hatred towards Russia is that intense, that they created CAATSA, but buying from china seems to be no problem, while china is the country that wants to take over world domination from the US.

I think its better to wait until 2024.
The BT-3Fs and BMP-3Fs ordered are not yet delivered (actually no any news-updates the last years) and it is actually also unlikely that the Su-35 will be delivered the coming years.
Most defence equipment procurement projects are going very slowly or are even cancelled during this administration, so our patience is really being tested the coming years.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
The american government is the one who created CAATSA, they are also the ones who decides which defence items are acceptable for them and which not.
This's what I mean from beginning of this long debate. CAATSA problem is that it's open interpretation for US only. Thus it's pointless to argue which type of procurement will be ok or not under CAATSA, cause it can changes anytime depend on US Interpretation only. There will be no prove of Indonesia can get waivers from US on CAATSA, cause it's open interpretation from US only.

For that any Defense procurement with Russia no matter what, will be open to the risk under CAATSA. There's no guarantee from beginning which one that will be safe or not.
So if you still value your relationship with US more than Russia (as Indonesia MinDef so far shown) then you'll go all the way to find alternative (as MinDef did).

CAATSA is created for any potential adversary by US. Now seems more to Russia, however it's open for China if they (US) deemed so in future.
I suspect that CAATSA more being used toward Russia now is more to do with more Russian economics dependency on International Arms Trade compared to China.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I dont think we are going to be sanctioned due to buying missiles from Russia. USA will also understand the situation.
1. This is factually incorrect and in this debate, you have failed to provide a valid argument or a link that shows otherwise.
(a) Learn to be gracious and listen when a senior member has been kind enough to correct you, when what you post is incorrect — if the Moderator Team had intervened earlier, you would have been banned. While Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs R. Clarke Cooper said: “The CAATSA sanctions are not designed to be punitive to a partner and ally that has got a sustainment issue or an operation or maintenance issue. We’re certainly not looking to disrupt that…”, its existence means no Indonesian or Indian bank is willing to provide a letter of credit to facilitate a Russian cross border significant transaction that involves advanced surface to air missiles.
(b) Despite the fact that CAATSA included a provision for a ‘case-by-case’ waiver of sanctions, India or Indonesia have, as yet, received no such waiver. India’s plans to buy advanced surface to air missiles is not a sustainment or maintenance issue; and in this type of case, CAATSA will apply to India or Indonesia, unless a waiver is granted.
(c) On 20 Sep 2018, to facilitate implementation of CAATSA, President Trump also issued Executive Order 13849 [380 KB] “Authorizing the Implementation of Certain Sanctions Set Forth in the Countering Americas Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.”
(d) CAATSA states that sanctions shall be imposed beginning on or after 180 days after enactment on persons that are determined to knowingly engage in a significant transaction with a person specified in the Guidance. For additional guidance on implementation of Section 231, see the following: Public Guidance/FAQ.
(e) "If India chooses to go forward with its purchase of the S-400, that act will clearly constitute a significant, and therefore sanctionable, transaction with the Russian defense sector under Section 231 of CAATSA," Sen. Bob Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee wrote in a recent letter to Secretary Austin, referring to the law called CAATSA. Senior Forum members have even more details on CATSSA that we are choosing not to share, as entertaining idiotic arguments only leads to idiots becoming more argumentative.

2. @Ahmad, if you:

(a) bring up the topic of CATSSA or post further incorrect info on the topic of sanctions, in any thread again, in the next 12 months, you will be banned; and
(b) fail to provide a link in any future post you make, you will be banned.

3. In the case of Turkey, their S400 purchase triggered the following sanctions under Section 235 of CAATSA, as implemented by Executive Order 13849 on 14 Dec 2020:

#1: a ban on US Export-Import Bank assistance for exports to SSB (Section 235(a)(1));​
#2: a prohibition on granting specific US export licenses and authorizations for any goods or technology transferred to SSB (Section 235(a)(2));​
#3: a prohibition on loans or credits by US financial institutions to SSB totaling more than US$10 million in any 12-month period (Section 235(a)(3));​
#4: a requirement for the US to oppose loans benefitting SSB by international financial institutions (Section 235(a)(4)); and​
imposition of full blocking sanctions and visa restrictions (which include sanctions #7, #8, #9, #11, and #12 of the sanctions listed above) on the following individuals:​
  • Dr. Ismail Demir, president of SSB;
  • Faruk Yigit, SSB’s vice president;
  • Serhat Gencoglu, Head of SSB’s Department of Air Defense and Space; and
  • Mustafa Alper Deniz, Program Manager for SSB’s Regional Air Defense Systems Directorate.
4. A string of your poor quality posts have been deleted; and my prior request to the other moderators not to ban you have been rescinded. If you don’t want to learn from these corrections by a senior member, your remaining time here will be short. You have used up our patience with you by being unnecessarily dogmatic and refusing to learn.
 
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