@OPSSG agree on that. Prabowo's will use all the bargain from US potential to gain as much as possible bargain from Dasault. His preference with France and some in MinDef or Parliament in fact shown quite clear. However his preference is not everything. US trade balance issue is also very important.
Like I said before, some in MinDef and Political circles will always keep cautious approach with US Democrats. They know some Democrats house members at least in Far Left shown support for Papuan Movement, and those Guys are belong to Kamala Harris side. Eventough many Indonesian Political factions do have good relationship with Obama and Biden, but they will keep wachfull eyes with Democrats Left.
French on the other hand is mostly considered more reliable Defense Suppliers by MinDef and TNI. Even after East Timor fiasco, French was the first Western power that resupply TNI.
My calculations on still potential US Fighters procurement more to the need of rebalancing trade that Trump wants. Even if he's gone soon, he's trying to get that. At the same time I do believe Biden will aim on that also, eventough less vulgar than Trump.
How to balance it, which I still don't know. If this talk of 36 Rafale is the one their choose, they will be lucky to get USD 5bio on life time sustainment costs. After that how much credit line left that Ministry of Finance willing to give MinDef especially TNI-AU for US rebalance trade demand? On the same time MinDef have lot off plan for Navy.
If this's not in COVID condition, they can ask
Garuda to dump Airbuses and get Boeing using US based leasing (so can directly impact Trade Balance). However with this condition, it will be lucky even with Q1 2021 vaccination Garuda going back to operational profit next year. Heck it'll be lucky if any Airlines can get back to operating profit by 2021 (this's operating profit not net profit).
Thus it's back to Government procurement, and for US it's back to Defense procurement. I'm just sceptical that if they choose Rafale, they will have enough credit on TNI-AU allotment to buy Boeing MPA or Tankers, or AEWC. Cause without that how're other program for US?
US trade balance is more sensitive issue for Indonesia, due to the importance of US relative to Euro let alone French, German or even Russia as individual trade Partner. If it's not due that, those Political Factions that support Su-35 will not going to take notice on CAATSA.