Indonesian Aero News

[Gadjah Mada]

The truth is, most of those so called 'defense' experts now in Indonesia, did not even posses legitimate defense back ground. Mostly come out from Political back ground, thus produce what the 'political order' that come to them. Well that's how they make their living this days, producing rubbish comment hoping to produce some kind of 'public' controversy which in the end just to 'stir-up' political back-deal in the parliament.

Agree. One NGO even reject the idea of purchasing Nakhoda Ragam class due to "it tilted when turning" which a junior high school students could explain based on centrifugal and centripetal force. A very basic physic theory we experience daily during riding motorcycle. C`mon, They should make better arguments )

Anyway, Ananda what about this article: Indonesia Says

And some gossips that US offer more F-16 for TNI-AU according to Dephan?
It seems TNI AU has stopped the plan to purchase Sukhoi-except if PDIP win 2014 election- F-16 seems will be the backbone of TNI AU until the planned KFX being inducted.

Suddenly I doubt about the willingness of TNI AU to equip the Sukhois, considering until now, no picture on their weapons in public.

All the money planned for the Russian weapon may be go to US instead. If the F-16 addition come true, just wait for another saga in Senayan.

 

[Saracens]

To continue that future forecast, may be I have some words:

1. That forecast is only for south east Asia air superiority, not to whole world.

2. That comments come about time when some economist expert, form inside and outside Indonesia forecast Indonesian economy will be the 6th in the world at 2045.

So, may be he forecast with that economy strength, Indonesia will get air superiority in south east Asia at 2045.

3. If KFX/IFX projects with South Korea success, Indonesia can produces more aircraft from 2025.

 

[Ananda]

And some gossips that US offer more F-16 for TNI-AU according to Dephan?
It seems TNI AU has stopped the plan to purchase Sukhoi-except if PDIP win 2014 election- F-16 seems will be the backbone of TNI AU until the planned KFX being inducted.

Suddenly I doubt about the willingness of TNI AU to equip the Sukhois, considering until now, no picture on their weapons in public.

Based on OAO KTRV export figures for 2012, Indonesian AF have ordered Kh-31Ps ($6.3mil), R-77s and Kh-29Ts ($8.8mil) and Kh-59MEs ($5.2mil).
bmpd -

KTRV if I'm not mistaken is the Russian bureau for missiles export. So according the Russian Indonesia Min-Def still order missiles for the Flankers, not much but seems enough for training purposes (at least in my point of view).

That's the problem on looking to Indonesian defense planning and procurement, even with more 'openness' from mindef this days, many still in shades. Is the missiles already here ? Is the contract still going on ? and if yes why haven't they show it to the public ? Too many questions still has not been answered, but then again Indonesian military is not big on showing all their assets anyway.

As why they stop ordered more Flankers, for me the answered is because they (Mindef) got more F-16 offered. In 2005, I see the bits of plan on getting 3 sq of Flanker (48 fighter on all), in which 1 for new sq, 1 for replacing F-16 sq, and 1 for replacing F-5. But those plan being put when Indonesia think that getting more F-16 or even upgrading and maintaining existing ones still not possible.

In beginning of this thread, I already stated a statement from then Air Force Chief, that Flanker cost more than double to operated compared to F-16. I believe in reality, TNI-AU love and more comfortable with F-16. They (the generations of current TNI-AU) grew-up with US/Western made equipment. They re more comfortable in that. Even Flankers performance still outbid (especially in patrol range) of F-16, but operational wise I do believe TNI-AU still preferred F-16.

In short TNI-AU have in mind from my perspective (base on bit information from various sources) want to keep Flankers and F-16 as their main assets. However for the current administrations, seems equipping 1 full sq of Flanker is the most they can do with what time they have left (2014).

10 existing F-16 plus 24 new upgraded F-16, can be stretched for 3 (uncompleted) sq strength. If US did offered second batch of F-16 thus TNI-AU can operate 3 full sq, as Mindef claim Menhan: AS tawari hibah F-16 - AntaraNews.com , then TNI-AU will have enough fighters to cope with.

By then (2014-2015) operating 6 full sq of fighters (1 Flanker sq, 2 Hawk 200 sq, and 3 F-16 sq) plus 1 COIN and 1 LIFT sq, it's already put TNI-AU as reasonable Air Force for South East Asia standard. More than that, TNI-AU infrastructure (hard and soft) will be stretched beyond the full capacity just to support them.

 

[Ananda]

To continue that future forecast, may be I have some words:

1. That forecast is only for south east Asia air superiority, not to whole world.

2. That comments come about time when some economist expert, form inside and outside Indonesia forecast Indonesian economy will be the 6th in the world at 2045.

So, may be he forecast with that economy strength, Indonesia will get air superiority in south east Asia at 2045.

3. If KFX/IFX projects with South Korea success, Indonesia can produces more aircraft from 2025.

It's how he said that. For him to be quoted as an defense expert, it's very disappointing on how he can come to that conclusions. Say that Indonesia continue the current paces of 6%+ growth until 2045 (33 years from now) did any Air Force can be a sustainable Air Force by just providing enough fund to built ?

Let's see the Saudi Arabian Force (SAF), the Kingdom already put much more money to build the Air Force than Israel can do (even with US money help), however if comes to war between those two, and no US or other outside interferences, the Israel still (I believe) having the upper hand due to better management and soft development.

In short, If US or external sources put the plug from those two countries, and they have to maintain on their own, after two years which Air Force do you still believe have more operational Aircraft ?

Back to TNI-AU case, is TNI-AU already invest enough on soft infrastructure ? Is Indonesia Aerospace technology have enough momentum at this moment to be independent technologically ? Thats' why I said in my previous post, with current capacity, operating 8 full sq of Fighters for TNI-AU is already stretched the limit of their capability.

33 years ago, China Air Force and Aerospace Industry already (relatively) more advance on what Indonesia has today. 33 years on to today, they are still far from competing with US to dominate Asian sky.

Just pouring money is not enough to build sustainable Air Force that can compete with the big guys. It's why as an expert, the way he come to conclusions based only with what Indonesian economic projected will be in 2045, is disappointing. As an expert (if he's really an expert), his conclusions is less in quality compared to many Internet Fan Boys can come out with.

 

[Saracens]

I'm agree with your view.
So, what is the soft infrastructure that Indonesia needs from your opinion ?

From I know, now Indonesia invest to the brainware and hardware.
Indonesia now capable to manufacture small lift aircraft and trainer aircraft.
Habibie already announced that he will open his new aircraft factory in Indonesia.
At 2012, 3 new airbase have built in Kalimantan border.
In 2013 budget, Indonesia will build new 15 airbase at east Indonesia.
Also with president instruction already prepared to build new high tech military factory at East Java, it's about 1000Ha area factory that must near Dolomite resources.

Surely I'm not expert about the needs to get that dream.
May be you can share your thoughts to get that dream ?

 

[Ananda]

I'm agree with your view.
So, what is the soft infrastructure that Indonesia needs from your opinion ?

From I know, now Indonesia invest to the brainware and hardware.
Indonesia now capable to manufacture small lift aircraft and trainer aircraft.
Habibie already announced that he will open his new aircraft factory in Indonesia.
At 2012, 3 new airbase have built in Kalimantan border.
In 2013 budget, Indonesia will build new 15 airbase at east Indonesia.
Also with president instruction already prepared to build new high tech military factory at East Java, it's about 1000Ha area factory that must near Dolomite resources.

Well I'm also not a defense expert just another Fan Boys. However if I may say, TNI-AU need to drastically change their culture and the way of their thinking. Any Business (yes an Armed Forces is just another defense business) this days must change the way their thinking for more efficient operations in order to have sustainable expansions.

Current Training infrastructure say for 2014-16 with 20 Grob for beginner, 20-30 KT-1 for Basic-intermediate, and 20 FA-50 for LIFT if I'm not mistaken can only produce 20-40 Pilots annually. This will be hard press for TNI-AU to maintain the plan 10 Fighter sq, 6 Transport Sq, and 4 Helo Sq which if I'm not mistaken is the plan in that time-line.

By that time TNI-AU I predict will have a manning retention problem. With Booming Airline Industry, many of the Pilots and Ground Crew will be tempted to move to more lucrative commercial industry. TNI as whole still not developed a procedure like US ANG that able to maintain some of their staff that move to commercial industry as their reserve.

How about outsourcing some of the work to Private contractors. Many AF doing that right now, but do TNI already willing to let outside contractors doing some of their sensitive job ?

In short to be able to build big, TNI need to change some of their culture and way of thinking. In the term of budget if all being done alone just like their doing right now, it will be very expensive, and even if Indonesia can keep 6%+ average growth annually for the next 33 years (to 2045), I believe it's still unaffordable.

What I'm talking is just a tip of the iceberg that TNI as organization need to work out. That's why, it's not just a matter of simple pour the money to make an effective large AF.

 

[dave55]

I think the best bet for the Indonesian airforce is to move away from US planes (which are full of strings, the most expensive, and never available to be used against them!), and go for a combination of JF-17 Thunders and J10s. Pakistan airforce is wise to develop such high capability plane with China, that is 1/3rd the price of an F-16, its new, and more capable in many aspects. In this way Indonesian airforce can get J10s as well, that are far superior than any plane in the region, in few numbers, backed by the Thunders!

 

[Ananda]

http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/s720x720/224601_256864401083686_1142695543_n.jpg

Based on this, the Indonesian Government next year budget plan only put Defense (Pertahanan in Bahasa) as 0.8% of the budget even though the nominal amount increase around 6% from IDR 72.5 T to IDR 77.7 T or increase around IDR 5.2 T or close to USD 600 mio.

Despite this increase, actually as % to GDP, it's reduce from 0.9% in 2012 to just 0.8% of GDP. Why ? Because the Government and Political establishment do not have courage to reduce the Subsidies (including Fuel, Electricity etc). The Subsidies which made significant part to Public Service posts (Pelayanan Public) increase significantly from IDR 590.8 T to IDR 733.8 T or more than 40%.

In short Indonesian Fuel subsidies is still much larger than Defense expenditure. Not kind of budget for a nation that prepared for an all out Defense build-up.

 

[Gadjah Mada]

In this way Indonesian airforce can get J10s as well, that are far superior than any plane in the region, in few numbers, backed by the Thunders!

I am not sure about the word far superior. Compared to which country?

Singapore operate F-15 SG and a quite large number of F-16 block 52. RSAF arguably the most technologically advanced air force in ASEAN. They have more money (Singapore have the largest defense spending in ASEAN so far), they have good management, and they are major Non-NATO ally with great support from countries like India and Israel.

Malaysian RMAF operate Su-30 MKM and F-18, and on the way considering the likes of Rafale and Typhoon as replacement for their MiG-29 replacement.

Thais`s RTAF operate older version of F-16 A/B and start to operate JAS Gripen.

Vietnam also have a considerable number of Su-27 and Su-30.

Not to mention Australia with their long history.

 

[Saracens]

Dear Dave, like Ananda said, the near problem of Indonesia's TNI AU are the pilots.
With 8 sq near this 2 years, they will have lack of pilots.

Back to military industry, which I've some connection with my last job.
From PINDAD's needs, there are plenty new business all over Bandung to support the parts that PINDAD needs.
I've work with some factory that have projects from PINDAD to fulfill the parts, and also upgrading capability the factory of PINDAD.
With PT. PAL, some shipyard and their parts outsource also have upgrading projects with my team.

So, I believe with DI/IAi, there will be many outsource for the parts in Indonesia. Have some discussion this year about the factory capability with them.
Hope the transfer of technology running well.

Also, last month I've discuss with my partner from Germany how, with what type machine and technology that used to weld Leopards
But it still have more works to do to give Indonesia's factory to use that technology.

But, I've change my career path, so maybe I can not know more about the process and military industry in Indonesia.

But Ananda, I think Indonesia's generals and leader know about the human resources problems.
And one of the solutions is gaining them by high nationality.
How to get that? Create conflict and tensions with neighbor.
So, they know to control the conflict it must have MEF so the conflict can be solved with little casualties.

I have little worries when the transition at 2014 the conflict will happen.
It will be hidden agenda to gain political purpose too, so they're boosting the procurements.
But, its just my fictional think fftopic

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Based on OAO KTRV export figures for 2012, Indonesian AF have ordered Kh-31Ps ($6.3mil), R-77s and Kh-29Ts ($8.8mil) and Kh-59MEs ($5.2mil).
bmpd -

KTRV if I'm not mistaken is the Russian bureau for missiles export. So according the Russian Indonesia Min-Def still order missiles for the Flankers, not much but seems enough for training purposes (at least in my point of view).
.

Thanks for the link Ananda! Now we know that in the near future our Sukhois are better armed than with some dumb free fall bombs.
But i see also a small contract, worth $0,57: BD. What dows it mean BD?

 

[the road runner]

I am wondering if Indonesia's choice of less Flankers is due to money?
I would assume a single engine F-16 would be cheaper to fly and maintain compared to a double engine Flanker.

 

[Gadjah Mada]

Thanks for the link Ananda! Now we know that in the near future our Sukhois are better armed than with some dumb free fall bombs.
But i see also a small contract, worth $0,57: BD. What dows it mean BD?

As-17 Krypton/X-31P/kh-31P is an anti radiation missile. I doubt about this data, since this kind of missile has never been mentioned before. Kh-31 A AShM probably more reasonable since it will complement the Yakhont of TNI AL.

X-59 ME/Kh-59 Ovod M is an anti ship/cruise missile. It seems the role is not that different from Krypton. It is weird if TNI AU order missile with almost the same role but different type. Or may be they just want to try in small number first before decide further purchasing?

Not sure about the Vympel. Which type? R-37 long range, R-73 short range, R-77 amraamski or others?

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I am wondering if Indonesia's choice of less Flankers is due to money?
I would assume a single engine F-16 would be cheaper to fly and maintain compared to a double engine Flanker.

Exactly, besides that the time between overhaul from the Saturns are shorter than the PWs

 

[the road runner]

Exactly, besides that the time between overhaul from the Saturns are shorter than the PWs

I would have thought the PW's would be cheaper and less time consuming to overhaul than the Saturn's?

 

[ADMk2]

I would have thought the PW's would be cheaper and less time consuming to overhaul than the Saturn's?

I would imagine so, however the time between overhauls means the greater the better. The shorter the time between overhauls, the more frequently you have to perform them...

Is it cheaper to service your car once or twice every 10,000k's?

 

[Ananda]

I am wondering if Indonesia's choice of less Flankers is due to money?
I would assume a single engine F-16 would be cheaper to fly and maintain compared to a double engine Flanker.

I'm not quite sure to called it less Flanker. More appropriate called Hold the next batch of Flanker contract (after 1 sq). Local forum still show that the plan for Flanker actually still for 2 sq. However seems the present administrations think that with what time they have left and what budget allocation for TNI-AU, they stop procuring Flankers after 1 sq. Whether the option for 2nd Flanker sq still pursue or nor seems up to the next administrations.

Yes the Money definitely is a factor. Indonesian F-16 inventory should consists of 10 existing Block 15 OCU and 24 upgrade Block 25. The USD 750 mio contract to upgrade those 24 Block 25 will provide with electronics that up to Block 50 standard.

If what the Mindef claim is true on another Batch of ex USAF F-16 is in offer, plus the plan for Upgrading the existing Block 15 OCU the the same standard, then say another 24 upgrade F-16 (10 existing Block 15 OCU and 14 Block 25 of second batch offer), with say same USD 750 mio contract will made good offer compared to USD 750 mio contract for another batch of Flankers which perhaps can only provide 8-12 Flankers (depends on the packages) albeit new one.

In short, Flankers due give TNI-AU more capacity especially in patrolling range, however with the large geographical space to cover, more quantity of F-16 seems attract Min-def more than a second batch of Flanker.

That off course only from procurement side, which not mentions more economical operational cost of F-16 to Flanker. Like I said before, TNI-AU will maintain mix Flanker and F-16, but with more quantity will be on F-16 side. This mix seems meet well for TNI-AU present and near future need.

 

[Gadjah Mada]

According to: http://www.dsca.mil/PressReleases/36-b/2012/Indonesia_12-44.pdf

Indonesia has requested a possible sale of 18 AGM-65K2 MAVERICK All-Up-Round Missiles, 36 TGM-65K2 Captive Air Training Missiles, 3 TGM-65D Maintenance Training Missiles, spare and repair parts, support equipment, tool and test equipment, personnel training and training equipment, publications and technical data, U.S. Government and contractor technical and logistics personnel services and other related elements of program and logistics support.

In Wikipedia the price of maverick is US$17,000 to $160,000, depending on variant. While this transaction is estimated about $25 million. It seems too expensive. Can anybody give the idea on price breakdown?

 

[ADMk2]

According to: http://www.dsca.mil/PressReleases/36-b/2012/Indonesia_12-44.pdf

Indonesia has requested a possible sale of 18 AGM-65K2 MAVERICK All-Up-Round Missiles, 36 TGM-65K2 Captive Air Training Missiles, 3 TGM-65D Maintenance Training Missiles, spare and repair parts, support equipment, tool and test equipment, personnel training and training equipment, publications and technical data, U.S. Government and contractor technical and logistics personnel services and other related elements of program and logistics support.

In Wikipedia the price of maverick is US$17,000 to $160,000, depending on variant. While this transaction is estimated about $25 million. It seems too expensive. Can anybody give the idea on price breakdown?

DSCA announcements, as I mentioned the RAAF thread, rarely contain a complete list of everything being acquired. For instance they almost never mention any options that have been placed (say 18x Maverick missiles with options on another 100 for example) yet those options potential value is included in the estimated price.

I highly doubt Indonesia is paying 800k each (or so) for Maverick missiles. I suspect that there is a large number of options in the actual detailed request, and these will not be revealed for national security reasons, but ordered over the years to supplement Indonesia's inventory of weapons, as needed.

An earlier Maverick missile purchase for Taiwan followed a similar pattern:

http://www.dsca.mil/pressreleases/36-b/Taiwan 01-25.pdf

Except in that one, more than double the number of missiles, cost $7m less than Indonesia's current acquisition...

Moral of the story: don't get too wound up by the public details of these announcements.

There's too much going on in the background...

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The first four EMB-314/A-29 Super Tucano aircrafts were yesterday delivered to Indonesia's Air Force, TNI-AU at Halim Perdanakusuma Air Base.

Impressive promotionfilm
A-29 Super Tucano - Indonesia's Air Force - YouTube

Picture taken from Jakartapost
http://www.thejakartapost.com/files/images2/tucano.jpg