Future Energy Pathways

Ananda

The Bunker Group

One thing for sure, Japan bet on hydrogen is mainly due to hydrogen flexibility for convertion using existing power generation tech. I'm not sure how much wind and solar can be really contribute toward overall hydrogen production base. Personally I don't have much confidence for those two. So far their track record on using as Hydrogen production fuel is not that big. As such asside fossil fuels, nuclear and even Geothermal seems shown more promise as Hydrogen production fuel.

In last March Japan already sign agreement with Indonesian Oil Company Pertamina on using later Geothermal field for Hydrogen production. Shown Japan branching on all tech for Hydrogen production base.


If Hydrogen production can be source more easily and massively on economical base, the flexibility of hydrogen to be used on existing power engine, will become more attractive. Especially for those countries that doesn't want to invest more to battery based tech.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

One thing for sure, Japan bet on hydrogen is mainly due to hydrogen flexibility for convertion using existing power generation tech. I'm not sure how much wind and solar can be really contribute toward overall hydrogen production base. Personally I don't have much confidence for those two. So far their track record on using as Hydrogen production fuel is not that big. As such asside fossil fuels, nuclear and even Geothermal seems shown more promise as Hydrogen production fuel.

In last March Japan already sign agreement with Indonesian Oil Company Pertamina on using later Geothermal field for Hydrogen production. Shown Japan branching on all tech for Hydrogen production base.


If Hydrogen production can be source more easily and massively on economical base, the flexibility of hydrogen to be used on existing power engine, will become more attractive. Especially for those countries that doesn't want to invest more to battery based tech.
Certain regions offer good alternatives for energy production which in turn could be used to produce hydrogen. The main issue is whether process is green or not. Costs suck regardless but for transportation applications that is true for EV as well.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There are physics problems with hydrogen and Sabine Hossenfelder, a German physicist discusses them. Long story short, H is the smallest and lightest element. As such it's quite difficult to store because it can escape through the atomic lattices of any storage container. Not only that, H fuel cells require platinum and iridium both of which require significant carbon emissions to process.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
There are a number of storage projects under development but certainly this is an issue. WRT platinum, I guess not having to use this element for catalytic converters in exhaust systems should make more platinum available for electrodes. Also, hydrogen internal combustion engines are another option.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Also, hydrogen internal combustion engines are another option.
Yes, and that's what Japanese aim, not for Hydrogen Fuel Cells.

Not only that, H fuel cells require platinum and iridium both of which require significant carbon emissions to process.
I believe the video talk on Hydrogen fuel cell, which basically make Hydrogen Batteries cell (well close equivalent on that). While what Japanese aim is to make Hydrogen as Gasoline or LPG replacement (LPG replacement seems more appropriate) on existing combustion engines tech.

That's what Toyota aim with car engine, or Mitsubishi with Gas Turbines. Make Hydrogen as fuel replacement for Hydrocarbons within basically existing engine tech ecosystems.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Yes, and that's what Japanese aim, not for Hydrogen Fuel Cells.



I believe the video talk on Hydrogen fuel cell, which basically make Hydrogen Batteries cell (well close equivalent on that). While what Japanese aim is to make Hydrogen as Gasoline or LPG replacement (LPG replacement seems more appropriate) on existing combustion engines tech.

That's what Toyota aim with car engine, or Mitsubishi with Gas Turbines. Make Hydrogen as fuel replacement for Hydrocarbons within basically existing engine tech ecosystems.
Toyota is actually considering hydrogen for both fuel cells and combustion engines along with Li-ion EV.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
There are physics problems with hydrogen and Sabine Hossenfelder, a German physicist discusses them.
As a small note, Sabine Hossenfelder is mostly known for somewhat controversially regularly criticizing established physics. Her anti-hydrogen series of youtube videos is mostly spread to a wider audience by rightwing "anti-green" media.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Toyota is actually considering hydrogen for both fuel cells and combustion engines along with Li-ion EV.
Yes, Toyota is large and global enough company to afford RnD for several "green" vehicles. They are looking on Hybrid, Hydrogen Combustion, Hydrogen Fuel Cell, and EV. Basically they are preparing for any market, as each market can decide seperate green vehicles preference.

However Japan as individual market seems their Government betting on Hydrogen Combustion engine solutions (at least from articles that I have put before).


Put this article from Cummins which we know is big diesels engine producer. They are lookin on alternatives for diesels in large transportation trucks. As they are put, the obvious advantage for Hydrogen Combustion engine is leveraging existing tech ecosystems.

At current stage, producers simply still grappling on which tech can become the biggest choices for future solution. Personally thus I tend to agree with Hydrogen Combustion from customer experience point of view. This if Hydrogen can be produce, stores and distribute economically. Thus if Japanese can do this, it will be attractive alternative or complement to Electric Charging grids for EV.

For Airlines industries, They are looking on Hydrogen Turbines development progress as economical green solutions for their current engines.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Absolutely agree, certain markets are more favourable to EV and perhaps fuel cell but hydrogen combustion is applicable to all. Distance and cold are the negatives for EV here for many.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
As a small note, Sabine Hossenfelder is mostly known for somewhat controversially regularly criticizing established physics.
It doesn't do any harm for a scientific discipline to be regularly criticised, especially by one of their own. There are those within each discipline who sit on their pet theories and think that they are inviolable. Plenty of egos in science, especial within the higher echelons.
Her anti-hydrogen series of youtube videos is mostly spread to a wider audience by rightwing "anti-green" media.
She backs her arguments by providing her sources. No system is infallible and I believe that it should be criticised. Are people cranky with her because she has the terminacity to criticise accepted beliefs and challenge people to think?
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Hydrogen for small cars is probably never going to be successful. Perhaps hydrogen can work for specific niche capabilities like large ships.

The battery car has already won against hydrogen (both fuel cell based hydrogen cars and ICE hydrogen cars). Hydrogen cars are too expensive and there is hardly any hydrogen infrastructure anywhere (Japan is one exception)

The battery electric car’s supreme advantage is being able to ‘refuel’ at every place there is an electricity supply, even if a charge at home is still measured in hours. As for public chargers, according to Zap Map, at the end of December 2022, there were more than 37,000 electric vehicle charging points across the UK, across 22,000 charging locations.

More electric charging points are being added each day (though many say not enough for the 2030 deadline) but should you have a fuel cell car the amount of hydrogen refuelling stops is woeful.

Hydrogen storage demands purpose-built facilities, which can’t simply be pluged into the national grid like a battery charging point – and the current cost to build one hydrogen station is estimated to be £2 million.

To have a viable national network of hydrogen that would cover all the UK’s major roads, the government suggests we would need at least 1,000 filling stations (at a cost of around £2 billion). So how close are we to hitting this? Well, not very close at all.

As of January 2023, there are just 11 places in the UK to fill up your fuel cell car. To make matters worse, the number is going in the wrong direction and is actually a decrease of three stations over the last 12 months, as Shell closed its three sites last year.

Of the remaining sites, most are on industrial estates, at council premises or next to research institutes – not particularly convenient to general use by the public. And it appears that there are currently no new sites in the pipeline. Even if a massive new investment was to be announced tomorrow, it would take many years to build a sufficient number of sites to make hydrogen power viable.
Why hydrogen cars are not the answer | The Car Expert
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Hydrogen for small cars is probably never going to be successful. Perhaps hydrogen can work for specific niche capabilities like large ships.

The battery car has already won against hydrogen (both fuel cell based hydrogen cars and ICE hydrogen cars). Hydrogen cars are too expensive and there is hardly any hydrogen infrastructure anywhere (Japan is one exception)


Why hydrogen cars are not the answer | The Car Expert
Unless cold weather performance vastly improves for batteries, EVs aren’t going to be successful in many locations. As for hydrogen infrastructure, absolutely sucks but EV isn’t much better. Charging stations are becoming more common in the commercial sector but in residential areas, the electrical grid can’t support everyone charging their vehicles overnight even if the power plants were up to the task (which they aren’t, in Ontario anyway). Explains why Toyota is investing in both.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Hydrogen for small cars is probably never going to be successful. Perhaps hydrogen can work for specific niche capabilities like large ships.
In Germany hydrogen is overtaking electric easily when it comes to commercial services, in particular public transport. This is mostly due to the niche opportunity of having central bus depots (where hydrogen infrastructure can be easily installed) while electric busses in this field have extreme problems with vehicle range (being unable to fit into set daily rounds on a single charge) and are considerably pricier for initial investment.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Unless cold weather performance vastly improves for batteries, EVs aren’t going to be successful in many locations. As for hydrogen infrastructure, absolutely sucks but EV isn’t much better. Charging stations are becoming more common in the commercial sector but in residential areas, the electrical grid can’t support everyone charging their vehicles overnight even if the power plants were up to the task (which they aren’t, in Ontario anyway). Explains why Toyota is investing in both.
Charging infrastructure is growing in Canada -- 30% growth since 2021. Canada now has 16,579 ports (7,549 stations) are Level 2 chargers, while 3,899 ports (1,483 stations) are DC fast chargers, all public chargers.

In addition there is a growing number of non-public chargers, FLO has a total of 80,000 chargers in Canada (both public and non-public, meaning a significant number of their chargers are non-public).

Canada's public EV charging networks grew 30 per cent in 2022 (electricautonomy.ca)

I don't think you need a "vast" cold weather improvement for batteries, what you need is for prices to come down and improved charging infrastructure. My Tesla model 3 long range this winter I could drive more than 300 km before charging -- temp. was 15 degrees centigrade below zero. I know some places in Canada is much colder than that, however, the reality is that most places on earth is not that cold. Anyways after 300km I need to stop to get some coffee and empty the bladder. Charging at the same time at a 250kW charger is filling up the battery quite rapidly.

Norway is the world leader in electric cars, more than 80% of all cars sold are electric, and we now have more than 6,000 DC charging ports available. Almost all DC chargers being installed in Norway these days are 150kW and above. In my local shopping mall they got 10 AC chargers (22 kW) however even on Saturdays I have never seen more than 3 cars charging at the same time, since most people have their own charger at home, and there are also some public DC chargers around.

Ladestasjoner - Norsk elbilforening

If I were to buy a new car today I would of course buy electric, but a cheaper one, with somewhat lower range than the Tesla model 3 Long Range -- It would mean I would have to charge twice on some of my road trips in winter time and perhaps even in summer, however I need to stop at least twice to empty my bladder anyway... (my road trips are normally no more than 600 km and yes my bladder is not what it used to be...).
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Charging infrastructure is growing in Canada -- 30% growth since 2021. Canada now has 16,579 ports (7,549 stations) are Level 2 chargers, while 3,899 ports (1,483 stations) are DC fast chargers, all public chargers.

In addition there is a growing number of non-public chargers, FLO has a total of 80,000 chargers in Canada (both public and non-public, meaning a significant number of their chargers are non-public).

Canada's public EV charging networks grew 30 per cent in 2022 (electricautonomy.ca)

I don't think you need a "vast" cold weather improvement for batteries, what you need is for prices to come down and improved charging infrastructure. My Tesla model 3 long range this winter I could drive more than 300 km before charging -- temp. was 15 degrees centigrade below zero. I know some places in Canada is much colder than that, however, the reality is that most places on earth is not that cold. Anyways after 300km I need to stop to get some coffee and empty the bladder. Charging at the same time at a 250kW charger is filling up the battery quite rapidly.

Norway is the world leader in electric cars, more than 80% of all cars sold are electric, and we now have more than 6,000 DC charging ports available. Almost all DC chargers being installed in Norway these days are 150kW and above. In my local shopping mall they got 10 AC chargers (22 kW) however even on Saturdays I have never seen more than 3 cars charging at the same time, since most people have their own charger at home, and there are also some public DC chargers around.

Ladestasjoner - Norsk elbilforening

If I were to buy a new car today I would of course buy electric, but a cheaper one, with somewhat lower range than the Tesla model 3 Long Range -- It would mean I would have to charge twice on some of my road trips in winter time and perhaps even in summer, however I need to stop at least twice to empty my bladder anyway... (my road trips are normally no more than 600 km and yes my bladder is not what it used to be...).
Market share for EV is still only around 7-8% in Canada, mostly in BC and Quebec. Both provinces have the highest purchase incentives, provided by provincial and federal taxpayers. Quebec has abundant excess hydro electric power. Most other provinces don’t and there are minimal plans for new generation. My issue with EV is lack power to recharge and the eventual cost of this power. Pollies are fast to support EV, a new power plant, not so much. Solar farms replacing agricultural farms, that will be regrettable down the road.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Market share for EV is still only around 7-8% in Canada, mostly in BC and Quebec. Both provinces have the highest purchase incentives, provided by provincial and federal taxpayers. Quebec has abundant excess hydro electric power. Most other provinces don’t and there are minimal plans for new generation. My issue with EV is lack power to recharge and the eventual cost of this power. Pollies are fast to support EV, a new power plant, not so much. Solar farms replacing agricultural farms, that will be regrettable down the road.
Canada should build nuclear power plants!

Canada could perhaps benefit from the climate change in that a warmer climate could open up new regions in Canada for farming?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Canada should build nuclear power plants!

Canada could perhaps benefit from the climate change in that a warmer climate could open up new regions in Canada for farming?
Yes, new nuclear generation is the answer but mega plants won’t be supported. SMR, hopefully these work as advertised. As for a Warner North wrt agriculture, questionable. The Canadian Shield in Quebec and Ontario’s North (some of the world’s oldest rock) is useless. The Arctic is basically a desert.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Yes, new nuclear generation is the answer but mega plants won’t be supported. SMR, hopefully these work as advertised. As for a Warner North wrt agriculture, questionable. The Canadian Shield in Quebec and Ontario’s North (some of the world’s oldest rock) is useless. The Arctic is basically a desert.
Scraped bare by the ice in the last glaciation, & it takes a long time to change because the conditions up there aren't good for building up new soil. Climate & the type of rock are both against it IIRC.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Market share for EV is still only around 7-8% in Canada, mostly in BC and Quebec. Both provinces have the highest purchase incentives, provided by provincial and federal taxpayers. Quebec has abundant excess hydro electric power. Most other provinces don’t and there are minimal plans for new generation. My issue with EV is lack power to recharge and the eventual cost of this power. Pollies are fast to support EV, a new power plant, not so much. Solar farms replacing agricultural farms, that will be regrettable down the road.
Far too bloody little rooftop solar here in the UK. It seems to be seen as something to be marketed to homeowners, while vast areas of warehouse, factory, shopping centre etc. roofs are bare, despite it being financially sensible. I think it may be down to tenants paying the electricity bills. Booming in China, though.

Solar can be compatible with agriculture in some places, e.g. hot & dry areas where the limiting factor is water. Can even be beneficial there. I don't think that's Canada, though. ;)
 
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