Future Energy Pathways

[swerve]

Simple. Expand the generating capacity.

Demand for electricity doesn't massively increase overnight. Growth in use, whether industrial or domestic, takes time, & that time can be taken to build more capacity.

And then there are price & hard currency earnings to be thought about. How much would North African governments want to cut off a nice earner?

The point of North African solar would be cheap land & high sunshine levels, enabling the price to be competitive despite the infrastructure needed. Those competitive advantages aren't going to disappear.

 

[John Fedup]

The question that has to be asked in that scenario is "what happens if the North African countries decide they need to use the electricity themselves and cut off or reduce delivery of electricity to Europe?" Say that increased industrial demand causes Tunisia to decide that they'd rather use the electricity to power their own industry rather than selling it to Europe. Will Europe allow Tunisia and other North African countries to do that?

If they aren't allowed to, that's colonialism.
If they are allowed to, does Europe go dark? Or do they have sufficient electricity to keep things running? If it's the latter, then Europe is energy independent and doesn't need North African electricity.

Isn’t there the option of both Tunisia and EU companies owning solar farms or is Tunisia going to insist on state owned solar farms?

 

[swerve]

Since it's a hypothetical future thing, who knows? But I'd not bet on state-owned Tunisian solar farms. They'd have to be paid for by the state, & it isn't exactly flush with money. If it ever happens, I'd expect them to be privately owned but paying for land, permits, etc. & tied into the local grid & supplying electricity for Tunisia (perhaps at a discount) as well as exporting, for political acceptability.

 

[tonnyc]

Isn’t there the option of both Tunisia and EU companies owning solar farms or is Tunisia going to insist on state owned solar farms?

Of course there are options, but countries do make rules about exports all the time and applies it even to private companies. For example, in January Indonesia banned coal exports in order to secure their own supply. This lasted only ten days while they sort things out, but for those few days no coal was shipped out of the country.

A similar scenario happening with solar power in North African countries can happen. But with coal, most coal power plants have a few days stockpile at least, so they can operate while looking for alternative suppliers and there are also quite a lot of alternatives, e.g., Australian coal. With electricity though, if a cable connects Tunisia with Italy and Tunisia decides that they need those gigawatts for themselves, it's not practical to assume there's a second cable from somewhere else or that there are enough stored electricity to last a few days while they look for alternatives.

 

[swerve]

Scale, scale & scale. Look at the size & population of Tunisia. And why would all the electricity be Tunisian? What's wrong with Libyan & Algerian sunshine?

 

[tonnyc]

Scale, scale & scale. Look at the size & population of Tunisia. And why would all the electricity be Tunisian? What's wrong with Libyan & Algerian sunshine?

Nothing wrong with them. I was just using Tunisia as a shorthand because listing all the North African countries one by one will be too long. Also, as you said, the closest links would be Morocco-Spain and Tunisia-Italy, so Libyan solar power likely has to go through Tunisia. (Algeria's may go through Tunisia or Morocco depending on the site's location.)

And we don't have to assume that Tunisia is going to be cut off power to Europe entirely. But say that in 2028 natural gas price spiked to triple the usual price for some reason. Tunisia then wants to shut off all their natural gas power plants during the day and siphon off the solar power that is delivered via Tunisia. They even pay for the siphoned solar power at the same rate Europe is paying. But this results in a 20 GWh reduction in the amount of power Europe receive per day (number picked just as an example and doesn't actually reflect actual conditions), and now Europe has to turn on their natural gas power plants and pay the natural gas cost.

Anyway what I am saying is that really Europe as a region should be pushing for energy independence. Also that this energy independence will have to include nuclear energy because it's just not achievable otherwise. Plans to get power from faraway places should be deemed as nice-to-have but not be allowed to become a must-have.

 

[John Fedup]

Apparently four Canadian provinces are considering SMRs. The reactors are in the 200-300 megawatt range. The 5 billion dollar price tag seems excessive but I imagine another CANDU Darlington type power station would be north of $30 billion.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/smr-nuclear-power-provinces-canada-1.6399928

 

[John Fedup]

A short summary on scientists’ recommendations for GHG emissions. Suggested solutions make sense but no mention of nuclear generation, a realistic solution for base load. The omission detracts confidence from this report IMHO.

Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming Climate change: IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

 

[Ananda]

How the war in Ukraine could speed up Europe's climate plans

There's concern the U.S. push to send more natural gas to Europe will increase climate warming emissions. But energy experts say the crisis might actually speed up the shift to cleaner energy.

www.npr.org

Another version on that IPCC forum. Seriously why they are stuborn reluctancy with nuclear is beyond me. Eurozone energy self reliance level will be higher then now for one thing, if most of them did not ditch Nuclear investment.

There's much advancement in Nuclear Power Generation security and waste management. However seems being put asside by those enviromental "experts" that seems still looking Nuclear tech as of old potential problematics reactors frm the 60's.

The EU plan, called REPowerEU, calls for eliminating the need for Russian fossil fuels over time, replacing them with hydrogen, biomethane, as well as wind and solar energy.

The solutions always the same, dream of Solar, Wind, even hydrogen while knowing well that the most cost efficients hydrogen production are through fossil fuel side process (under current infrastructure and tech).

https://www.tuvsud.com/en/themes/hydrogen/explore-the-hydrogen-value-chain/hydrogen-production?gclid=CjwKCAjw0a-SBhBkEiwApljU0m2mFwStaiXlWwrtO4K89E4-Twpeeg0XPEqZ0fXFkxeq_woXrXhTqhoCEqQQAvD_BwE

Anyway enough of my ranting.

 

[John Fedup]

How the war in Ukraine could speed up Europe's climate plans

There's concern the U.S. push to send more natural gas to Europe will increase climate warming emissions. But energy experts say the crisis might actually speed up the shift to cleaner energy.

www.npr.org

Another version on that IPCC forum. Seriously why they are stuborn reluctancy with nuclear is beyond me. Eurozone energy self reliance level will be higher then now for one thing, if most of them did not ditch Nuclear investment.

There's much advancement in Nuclear Power Generation security and waste management. However seems being put asside by those enviromental "experts" that seems still looking Nuclear tech as of old potential problematics reactors frm the 60's.



The solutions always the same, dream of Solar, Wind, even hydrogen while knowing well that the most cost efficients hydrogen production are through fossil fuel side process (under current infrastructure and tech).

https://www.tuvsud.com/en/themes/hydrogen/explore-the-hydrogen-value-chain/hydrogen-production?gclid=CjwKCAjw0a-SBhBkEiwApljU0m2mFwStaiXlWwrtO4K89E4-Twpeeg0XPEqZ0fXFkxeq_woXrXhTqhoCEqQQAvD_BwE

Anyway enough of my ranting.

I understand and agree with your rant. Beyond stupid IMHO. Hell, might as well build new fission reactor plants and if fusion ever happens, much of the plant infrastructure will be needed for a fusion reactor substitute. Green energy happening faster with orders of magnitude less radioactive waste concerns.

 

[John Fedup]

China continues to invest in nuclear technology. The particle cannon (proton accelerator) is an interesting approach to fuel recycling.

China’s ‘Particle Beam Cannon’ Is a Nuclear-Power Breakthrough

It promises to recycle spent nuclear fuel, making it cheaper and less dangerous—and moving Beijing toward energy independence.

www.defenseone.com

 

[Ananda]

Who Really Controls The World’s Oil Reserves? | OilPrice.com

As much as 65 percent of the world’s oil and gas reserves are controlled by national oil companies according to new research

oilprice.com

This article talk about the Global oil reserve now mostly hold either by Saudi's, Russian, Iranian and Venezuella. However what I like to point out from this article is the question: "Is Oil and Gas going to diminish in importance by those green energy?".

I do sense the Investment on those ussual Green Energy as my previous posts put will not be enough to cover Global demand of energy. Especially when those "greenies' still lobby for not only less fossil fuel but also less nuclear.

This photo I take from this article:

The world population is abou to hit 8 billion people

The world population will reach eight billion this year and India will become Earth’s most populated country in 2023.

cosmosmagazine.com

Look at photo and take a look of Global population growth, Asside From China, India, and rest of East and Southeast Asia, most of the other lights in the nights (thus represent high energy consumption places) are North America, Europe, Middle East, Coastal Brazil and Coastal Australia. Those are not the biggest population growth center in future.

Look at Africa, thats where population growth in future. Africa still mostly dark, thus will those big population growth in Africa can afford those fancies greenies energy ? No, they will most likely going use relatively more affordable (in Investment to produce) of proven fossil fuels.

30 years ago most of Asia still darker then Eurozone and North America. Now the brightness in Asia (including middle east) rivalling Eurozone and North America. Even the brightness in Asia still not fully distributed yet.

Is Asia proportion of Green Energy Investment already on par with the other two region? Off course not, and will Africa will still as dark in next 2-3 decades ? Most likely not. Will they are brighthening the nights with Green Energy in the future? Doubtfully will be.

So will the prospect of Fossil energy dimmer in few decades in the future ? Perhaps in Euro, North America and some parts of more prosperous Asia. However not for the rest of that high growth population center, where their population also hungry for energy.

So much talk on Green Energy, as future for all Global energy within two decades. Well off course my ussual ranting in Energy: Unless the green energy include nuclear.

 

[John Fedup]

Nuclear will absolutely be needed for green energy. As for fossil fuels, yes poorer nations will stick with fossil….unless more rapid damaging climate change occurs which more often than not these countries are more vulnerable to.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

So they succeeded to get more energy from it than they inserted.

Voor het eerst met kernenergie meer energie opgewekt dan erin gestopt is

Onderzoekers in Californië is het voor het eerst gelukt om een kernfusie-experiment uit te voeren waarbij netto energiewinst is geboekt.

nos.nl

So it is the first time that the heart of a powerful fusion reactor has briefly generated more energy than was put into it.

Nuclear fusion reactor 'breakthrough' is significant, but light-years away from being useful

Useful, cost-effective nuclear fusion remains a distant dream, despite a small step in the right direction from the government's NIF reactor.

www.livescience.com

.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

So they succeeded to get more energy from it than they put in.

Voor het eerst met kernenergie meer energie opgewekt dan erin gestopt is

Onderzoekers in Californië is het voor het eerst gelukt om een kernfusie-experiment uit te voeren waarbij netto energiewinst is geboekt.

nos.nl

Not really.
The energy the 192 lasers shoot against the deuterium tablet was 1.71MJ, obtaining a fusion reaction that produced 3MJ.
However, the energy needed to allow the lasers to shoot 1.71MJ was... 300MJ.

That means you still need 100 times the energy you produce.

This is an important milestones, but we are still decades away from having a positive net result. ( decades? maybe its optimistic ).
Nuclear fusion is not even close to become a reliable energy source... dont worry.

Nuclear-fusion lab achieves ‘ignition’: what does it mean?

Researchers at the US National Ignition Facility created a reaction that made more energy than they put in.

www.nature.com

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting new type of hydrogen production is being studied. Called red hydrogen as it will be produced using thermal energy from a SMR. Currently a 30 MW reactor in Japan will test the feasibility of this approach.

What is Red Hydrogen? Interview With Our DirectIndustry Expert - DirectIndustry e-Magazine

What is red hydrogen and how can future small nuclear reactor produce it? Our DirectIndustry expert gives more insights.

emag.directindustry.com

 

[Ananda]

Bukan DME, Indonesia-AS Teken Kerja Sama Strategis Ini

Target Indonesia mencapai net zero emission tahun 2060 diharapkan tercapai dengan kerja sama ini.

www.cnbcindonesia.com

USTDA (US Trade & Development Agency) sign with Indonesian SOE on power PLN (State Electricity Company) on using SMR (small modular reactor) tech for securing clean energy development in Indonesia and potentially the rest of ASEAN later on.

This is acknowledging the need of nuclear for future clean energy is an essential steps. Indonesia now begin to sideline two lobby that before hindering nuclear energy development. Smaller one the 'da**ed' stupid greenies. They're small but loud in media on their scare tactics to publics on nuclear safety. The larger ones work behind doors but have much more money and political cloud, which is the coal industry. They are the ones that usually steered Indonesian energy strategies, including in PLN.

SMR, Thorium Molten Salt Reactor, and even Full scale nuclear reactor now gaining momentum to be seriously put as options. Realisation that you seriously can't get fossil fuel alternatives without seriously getting in to nuclear.

Problem with Indonesia as earthquake prone region being tackle with nuclear development on more geological stable area in Borneo/Kalimantan and Bangka/Belitung islands. The first ones for uranium based SMR or Full Scale Nuclear reactors as it is the area where most Indonesian uranium reserve found. The second ones mostly for Thorium Molten Salt reactor project. Bangka/Belitung islands are one of the biggest tin producing area, in which tin reserve coincidence with thorium reserve.

The Enhancement of Uranium and Thorium in Bangka Tin Slag | Permana | Atom Indonesia

Add:
Known reserve of Thorium and Uranium in Indonesia.

Siap Ditambang! Ini Wilayah RI yang Punya Bahan Baku Nuklir

Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) telah resmi menyetujui para pengusaha yang ingin menambang bahan baku nuklir di Indonesia.

www-cnbcindonesia-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Indonesia adopts regulation on uranium mining and prepares for possible NPP - Nuclear Engineering International

The head of nuclear research at Indonesia’s National Research & Innovation Agency (BRIN), Rohadi Awaludin, says the National Energy Council (DEN) is preparing to establish a Nuclear Energy Programme Implementation...

www.neimagazine.com

.

 

[tonnyc]

Adding more information to Ananda's post.

AS-Indonesia kerja sama kaji penggunaan SMR untuk PLTN di Kalbar

Amerika Serikat dan Indonesia bekerja sama mengkaji penggunaan teknologi reaktor modular kecil (SMR) pada pembangkit tenaga listrik nuklir (PLTN) di ...

www.antaranews.com

https://id.usembassy.gov/united-states-indonesia-announce-partnership-on-small-modular-reactor-nuclear-clean-energy/

Mostly the same information but NuScale is named as the US partner and the proposed nuclear capacity was specified at 462 MW which tells me that it's NuScale's VOYGR-6 concept.

 

[Ananda]

Japan Is Betting Big On Hydrogen | OilPrice.com

Japan plans to increase its hydrogen supply to 12 million tonnes per year by 2040, investing $113 billion over 15 years in the public and private sectors.

oilprice.com

Japan seems doing differently on green energyand seems not to bet on Electric/Battery ecosystems, or what Euro Greenies champion with Solar or Wind. Betting big on hydrogen for one thing can leverage existing combustion engine tech.

Guess there's a reason why Toyota also bet big with Hydrogen. Hydrogen and EV, giving choice personally I go with Toyota. Better then to charge your EV. Alas as big nickel producers, seems EV got more preference at home.

 

[John Fedup]

Japan Is Betting Big On Hydrogen | OilPrice.com

Japan plans to increase its hydrogen supply to 12 million tonnes per year by 2040, investing $113 billion over 15 years in the public and private sectors.

oilprice.com

Japan seems doing differently on green energyand seems not to bet on Electric/Battery ecosystems, or what Euro Greenies champion with Solar or Wind. Betting big on hydrogen for one thing can leverage existing combustion engine tech.

Guess there's a reason why Toyota also bet big with Hydrogen. Hydrogen and EV, giving choice personally I go with Toyota. Better then to charge your EV. Alas as big nickel producers, seems EV got more preference at home.

Japan and Toyota probably are eyeing Australia’s huge ability to produce green hydrogen via solar and wind farms down the road.