Future Energy Pathways

[swerve]

No, it can't replace fossil fuels. But it can replace some fossil fuels, just as rooftop solar can. The fact that it can't do everything is not a reason to ignore or dismiss it.

I'm far from an expert, but everything I've read says that operating costs of geothermal are relatively low. Capital cost is high, but with lower operating costs than fossil fuel the overall cost is supposed to be lower.

And like solar, it can be distributed. It doesn't all have to be in big power stations. It can reduce the need for electricity generation & transmission by providing local water heating, space heating (not a big deal in Indonesia but very valuable in some countries) & air conditioning.

 

[John Fedup]

Imagine if only 10% of world defence expenditures were added to existing funding on fusion research 10 years ago. Maybe by now, construction could be underway on numerous fusion power plants. Unfortunately, pure fantasy.

 

[tonnyc]

@swerve As I explained before, Indonesia has plenty of geothermal potential. It's just that we have lots of people and thus a huge energy demand. The potential has been variously calculated as 27 GW or 28 or 29 or 30 or 37 GW, there's no exact number but that seems to be the range. But when we have 270 million people and an expected stable population of 300-320 million in 2050, that's about 100 watt per person, give or take 10 watts. So it's not enough. We will use them, as much as we reasonably can, but other sources of energy will be needed and a lot of them too.

As for solar power, a rule of thumb is that a homeowner can (in theory) fulfill the house's energy need with solar power. But that's a homeowner. What about people living in apartment blocks? As a rule of thumb, the surface area of an apartment building can maybe cover the electricity needs of a single floor. The other floors will have to get the electricity from some other source. What about people renting rooms (kos, from the Dutch word inde kost, is very common in Indonesia)? Landlords have little reason to install solar power when they can just install prepaid meters and let the renters pay their own power. There's no reason for the landlord to provide free power to the renter. What about a factory? An office complex? A shopping mall?

Industry in particular can be very energy hungry. A factory can easily require power in the megawatts range 24/7. A data center in the tens of megawatts. A smelter several hundred of megawatts. Fulfilling those power requirements with solar will require lots of land. We do have some marginal lands. But we don't have a lot of those. The very fact that our land is relatively fertile means that most of our land is either food production or forests and we can't afford to give up the food producing land and cutting down forests is the wrong way to go. Floating solar power will help mitigate this some, but my feeling is that while solar power will help, it won't help that much.

Hence why I'm keen on nuclear energy for Indonesia. There is just insufficient renewable energy for our people. If our people is only 27-30 million we may have enough renewable resources, but for 270 million we must find additional sources of energy.

 

[swerve]

I know all of that. I've acknowledged it.

Factories, offices & shopping malls can all save money (at least, here) by covering their roofs with solar panels at current prices, so why not? Won't meet all their needs of course, but as I said, it all helps. Our electricity generators buy power from consumers who have a surplus & sell it on to others. That can make it worthwhile for, e.g. a warehouse with relatively low electricity consumption to cover its roof & sell the surplus.

Not the answer, but it all helps.

 

[John Fedup]

Some fusion news. Realistically, this technology is the world’s best hope for future energy needs without GHG emissions and other environmental issues. Unfortunately, there has been decades of articles suggesting breakthroughs that will bring forth this technology. No doubt progress is being made and hopefully it arrives while the planet can still be salvaged.
Major breakthrough on nuclear fusion energy Major breakthrough on nuclear fusion energy

 

[Ananda]

Talking on how to convert fossil energy toward green energy for a country of 270 mio people like Indonesia is already huge challange. Imagine to a country that have 5 times population.

India reliance on coal is going to be hard to reduce. China also relied on coal, but with economy more than 5 times larger then India, at least they got more capital toward transitioning toward less dependence on fossil fuel.

All three China, India and Indonesia have build transition plan to greener energy. However India I believe where the biggest challange will be. China has more capital, while Indonesia asside has less population also more choice of Greener energy sources (despite all big challange) compare to India.

India have larger unproductive land compare to Indonesia (in term of desert), that theoritically can be converted to solar farm. Again with the present or foreseable future solar panel tech, is it will be not enough ?

So all three of them will have to build some of their energy alternatives with Nuclear generating power. Both China and India are nuclear powers, and already build more Nuclear Power generating.

This increasing trend reliance toward nuclear power for the 1st, 2nd, and 4th populous nations will not going well with the enviromentalist and those green politicians in Europe. However is there any other choices to reduce fosil fuels ? That's the big questions.

 

[John Fedup]

Talking on how to convert fossil energy toward green energy for a country of 270 mio people like Indonesia is already huge challange. Imagine to a country that have 5 times population.

India reliance on coal is going to be hard to reduce. China also relied on coal, but with economy more than 5 times larger then India, at least they got more capital toward transitioning toward less dependence on fossil fuel.

All three China, India and Indonesia have build transition plan to greener energy. However India I believe where the biggest challange will be. China has more capital, while Indonesia asside has less population also more choice of Greener energy sources (despite all big challange) compare to India.

India have larger unproductive land compare to Indonesia (in term of desert), that theoritically can be converted to solar farm. Again with the present or foreseable future solar panel tech, is it will be not enough ?

So all three of them will have to build some of their energy alternatives with Nuclear generating power. Both China and India are nuclear powers, and already build more Nuclear Power generating.

This increasing trend reliance toward nuclear power for the 1st, 2nd, and 4th populous nations will not going well with the enviromentalist and those green politicians in Europe. However is there any other choices to reduce fosil fuels ? That's the big questions.

IIRC, India has been researching thorium based reactor designs as India has abundant thorium reserves. Due to population and a lack of energy alternatives, some sort of nuclear option is really their best option. Another nation amongst many that would benefit from fusion becoming a reality.

 

[Ananda]

Not really talking on power generating energy, however this is going to be related on how to attract more people on switching to EV.

From SCMP video. Shown how the services of swaping battery in China become alternatives for people that do not want to spend time to charging their EV. Basically your EV battery being swap with fully charged battery. Whenever you want to refill, just go the the services and swap again.

Rather go to fast charging station for at least 30 minutes, this will only take 3 minutes. That faster then refill your car in Gas Station.

Indonesia Gas Station also branching to open swap battery services. However so far only for Motorcyle EV. The concept the same with what they are doing in China.

Pertamina Buka Layanan Tukar Baterai Motor Listrik, Catat Lokasinya

Bahwa untuk melayani pasar kendaraan roda dua, termasuk pengendara transportasi online, yang harus dipenuhi adalah kemudahan dan kecepatan.

otomotif.kompas.com

This can be the service in the future. One reluctance on switching to EV is the time it takes to charge the Battery. This kind of services will make one of big barrier on people mentality being taking care.

 

[John Fedup]

Not really talking on power generating energy, however this is going to be related on how to attract more people on switching to EV.

From SCMP video. Shown how the services of swaping battery in China become alternatives for people that do not want to spend time to charging their EV. Basically your EV battery being swap with fully charged battery. Whenever you want to refill, just go the the services and swap again.

Rather go to fast charging station for at least 30 minutes, this will only take 3 minutes. That faster then refill your car in Gas Station.

Indonesia Gas Station also branching to open swap battery services. However so far only for Motorcyle EV. The concept the same with what they are doing in China.

Pertamina Buka Layanan Tukar Baterai Motor Listrik, Catat Lokasinya

Bahwa untuk melayani pasar kendaraan roda dua, termasuk pengendara transportasi online, yang harus dipenuhi adalah kemudahan dan kecepatan.

otomotif.kompas.com

This can be the service in the future. One reluctance on switching to EV is the time it takes to charge the Battery. This kind of services will make one of big barrier on people mentality being taking care.

Possibly a solution if the switching can be simplified and industry agreed on battery standardization.

 

[tonnyc]

Possibly a solution if the switching can be simplified and industry agreed on battery standardization.

Standardization will be key. I don't see this becoming widespread without standardization.

I also don't think that in the long run we will have enough lithium batteries. When people charge their own electric cars, there is one set of batteries per car. With a swap method there will be more than one set per car since the swap station must store extra sets of batteries. This will increase demand for batteries and drive the price up. Lithium IIRC is bottle-necked. They can't mine them fast enough. Hence why people are looking at other types of batteries. Hopefully they can develop a cheap battery that's close enough.

Anyway, while the convenience of the swap method will draw people, the increased cost will push people away. I am not talking about just a hypothetical battery cost increase but also the cost of swapping itself. A swap station for electric cars will require a lot of power and store extra sets of batteries. This will cost a lot, so the station owner will charge extra to recoup their investment. This means the cost per mile/km will be significantly higher than if one slow-charges the vehicle at home.

It's too early to determine where the push-pull will settle at, but I am watching with interest.

 

[John Fedup]

Standardization will be key. I don't see this becoming widespread without standardization.

I also don't think that in the long run we will have enough lithium batteries. When people charge their own electric cars, there is one set of batteries per car. With a swap method there will be more than one set per car since the swap station must store extra sets of batteries. This will increase demand for batteries and drive the price up. Lithium IIRC is bottle-necked. They can't mine them fast enough. Hence why people are looking at other types of batteries. Hopefully they can develop a cheap battery that's close enough.

Anyway, while the convenience of the swap method will draw people, the increased cost will push people away. I am not talking about just a hypothetical battery cost increase but also the cost of swapping itself. A swap station for electric cars will require a lot of power and store extra sets of batteries. This will cost a lot, so the station owner will charge extra to recoup their investment. This means the cost per mile/km will be significantly higher than if one slow-charges the vehicle at home.

It's too early to determine where the push-pull will settle at, but I am watching with interest.

This bottleneck is probably why Toyota amongst others continue to research hydrogen alternatives why still developing Lithium ion battery powered vehicles.

 

[mrrosenthal]

Agreed. India, with access to sodium and not lithium, is heavily invested in a sodium ion solution due to lack of lithium. Lithium is not the future, but it is the present.

Let’s not miss the sodium-battery bus - The Hindu BusinessLine


In other news, AI is helping Fusion control the shape of the plasma, a major breakthrough. Previously they had a hard time controlling the plasma.
Swiss Plasma Center and DeepMind Use AI To Control Plasmas for Nuclear Fusion (scitechdaily.com)

First AI controls plasma inside fusion reactor (freethink.com)
It forced the super-hot plasma into a shape never before seen in the tokamak.

This bottleneck is probably why Toyota amongst others continue to research hydrogen alternatives why still developing Lithium ion battery powered vehicles.

 

[ngatimozart]

In other news, AI is helping Fusion control the shape of the plasma, a major breakthrough. Previously they had a hard time controlling the plasma.

Do you have a source for that. You have been on here long enough to know that you are required to provide sources.

 

[Ananda]

Nice video from Bloomberg on China drive for clean energy. One thing that for me can take from this Video. China which going to put most of their Eco-Green initiatives, already prepared huge area in Western China for massive Solar and Wind farm. Something that perhaps in West on Canada and US can duplicate this.

Even with that, they still build massive initiative for Nuclear power. Even with that, they still need four decades to achive neutral carbon aim. So I don't know how EU want to achieve this by 2049, if they don't go Nuclear.

Western Politicians has to be honest on achieven zero carbon, if Nuclear not in the calculation as many Green Politicians try to do.

 

[swerve]

Most European countries don't have vast areas of arid, very low value land with a lot of sunshine. The USA does, Australia, of course, Spain, Italy & Greece to a limited extent. What Europe needs is political stability in North Africa & big interconnectors across the strait of Gibraltar & from Tunisia to Sicily to get maximum use of solar power.

 

[Ananda]

Most European countries don't have vast areas of arid, very low value land with a lot of sunshine

I think I make bit typo on my post. I mean "something that perhaps in West more on Canada and US can duplicate". Canada does not have sunshine, but they have large empty area with wind potential.

That's why it is always confuse me, with EU drive on Green Energy, but in same time don't want to invest in Nuclear. China example shown even with large area for Solar and Wind potential (probably as large as Euro zone outside Russia), they still need to invest extensively on Nuclear.

Wind, Solar, and Hydro as what those Green movement claim as future energy, is simply not enough to replace Hydrocarbon energy. I always smack my face when I heard those 'greenies' talking on Future Energy, but in same time oppose Nuclear in the same 'fanatism' with Hydrocarbon.

There's much talk in those Greenies to build large solar and Wind farm in Sahara. Well, are this experience with Russia don't give Euro Zone lesson for more independence in Energy ? Are Euro want to put their green energy future in area that basically so far shown more Political symphathy toward China and Russia ? Area where China influences just getting bigger ?

Nuclear is the only way for more getting Euro own independent energy. If those milenial and Gen Z Euro 'greenies' don't realise this, I don't know what to say more on future Euro energy independence.

 

[kato]

There's much talk in those Greenies to build large solar and Wind farm in Sahara.

"Desertec" died a couple years ago due to lack of government support and public criticism of involved companies trying mostly to gain subsidies for it.

 

[John Fedup]

I think I make bit typo on my post. I mean "something that perhaps in West more on Canada and US can duplicate". Canada does not have sunshine, but they have large empty area with wind potential.

That's why it is always confuse me, with EU drive on Green Energy, but in same time don't want to invest in Nuclear. China example shown even with large area for Solar and Wind potential (probably as large as Euro zone outside Russia), they still need to invest extensively on Nuclear.

Wind, Solar, and Hydro as what those Green movement claim as future energy, is simply not enough to replace Hydrocarbon energy. I always smack my face when I heard those 'greenies' talking on Future Energy, but in same time oppose Nuclear in the same 'fanatism' with Hydrocarbon.

There's much talk in those Greenies to build large solar and Wind farm in Sahara. Well, are this experience with Russia don't give Euro Zone lesson for more independence in Energy ? Are Euro want to put their green energy future in area that basically so far shown more Political symphathy toward China and Russia ? Area where China influences just getting bigger ?

Nuclear is the only way for more getting Euro own independent energy. If those milenial and Gen Z Euro 'greenies' don't realise this, I don't know what to say more on future Euro energy independence.

Big empty space lands for windmills, true, but I am not sure about the costs to transmit the electricity to market and maintain the windmills in remote areas. Solar panels in remote desert areas should require less maintenance.

 

[Ananda]

Solar panels in remote desert areas should require less maintenance.

If we see the video on Chinese on building ellectric transmition from Western Desert to the Industrial East, I suspect it will cost similar on per km distances whether transmiting from Desert or Northern Canadian Tundra.

However it is true that Solar Farm investment and maintenance are less then Wind Farm at this stage. China solar drive actually creating much economic capacity on their production enough to push price down substantially.

 

[tonnyc]

Most European countries don't have vast areas of arid, very low value land with a lot of sunshine. The USA does, Australia, of course, Spain, Italy & Greece to a limited extent. What Europe needs is political stability in North Africa & big interconnectors across the strait of Gibraltar & from Tunisia to Sicily to get maximum use of solar power.

The question that has to be asked in that scenario is "what happens if the North African countries decide they need to use the electricity themselves and cut off or reduce delivery of electricity to Europe?" Say that increased industrial demand causes Tunisia to decide that they'd rather use the electricity to power their own industry rather than selling it to Europe. Will Europe allow Tunisia and other North African countries to do that?

If they aren't allowed to, that's colonialism.
If they are allowed to, does Europe go dark? Or do they have sufficient electricity to keep things running? If it's the latter, then Europe is energy independent and doesn't need North African electricity.