China to build aircraft carrier

[Pursuit Curve]

Thank you for the prediction gf, I just wonder out loud if the real percieved threat is seen as the Indian Navy, the Air War seems to be already escalating with the JASDF. It will take a very large Chinese Navy to be able to take care of all its strategic objectives, Taiwan, Spratlys, Indian Ocean, Japan, Indonesia etc etc.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Thank you for the prediction gf, I just wonder out loud if the real percieved threat is seen as the Indian Navy, the Air War seems to be already escalating with the JASDF. It will take a very large Chinese Navy to be able to take care of all its strategic objectives, Taiwan, Spratlys, Indian Ocean, Japan, Indonesia etc etc.

Again, at a purely tactical level I cannot see China successfully doing proper coverage. It is also directly contradictory to current doctrine:

- become involved with only one conflict area at any one time
- do not fight away from the mainland and strong air support

The PLAN and the PLAAF are nowhere near ready to contest Taiwan
If they are to protect their commercial assets in extended resource SLOCs like Iran, and traditional SLOCs like the Malacca Straits, then they need fast force projection - they do not have any of that even remotely in place. Thats a 10 year plan IMV.

Taiwan is a classic example of what they can't achieve. An amphibious or PJ invasion of Taiwan has only 4 hours to have absolute dominance. That means that they have to get supporting logistics of 1000tonnes per day every day rolling in on as soon as the first troops land.

None of their sealift or airlift can reven remotely achieve that - especially in contested air space. At the 4 hour mark (assuming USAF support) you have the first F-22's and F15E's from Alaska arriving on station (remember that there is now a functioning F22 squadron and AESA equipped F-15's sitting in Elmendorf) - and they can be refueled by CSF's on the south eastern side of Taiwan as they arrive on station. Couple this with the AAR wing sitting in Alaska and the USAF has absolute tempo and only needs to consider reload issues. The USAF reloads become less of an issue as the CSF/CTF closes on approp waypoints.

There is already a CSF within 3 days sailing. another within a week.. All CSF's are able to provide tankerage for F-22's as they waypoint across.

I don't want to travel into the political side of debate, but at a purely tactical level they're not even remotely close to getting the right pressure and tempo in place.

and I haven't even spoken about the other US assets in play.

I really think that Chinas first interest lies in the Indian Ocean.

 

[Pursuit Curve]

Again, at a purely tactical level I cannot see China successfully doing proper coverage. It is also directly contradictory to current doctrine:

- become involved with only one conflict area at any one time
- do not fight away from the mainland and strong air support

The PLAN and the PLAAF are nowhere near ready to contest Taiwan
If they are to protect their commercial assets in extended resource SLOCs like Iran, and traditional SLOCs like the Malacca Straits, then they need fast force projection - they do not have any of that even remotely in place. Thats a 10 year plan IMV.

Taiwan is a classic example of what they can't achieve. An amphibious or PJ invasion of Taiwan has only 4 hours to have absolute dominance. That means that they have to get supporting logistics of 1000tonnes per day every day rolling in on as soon as the first troops land.

None of their sealift or airlift can reven remotely achieve that - especially in contested air space. At the 4 hour mark (assuming USAF support) you have the first F-22's and F15E's from Alaska arriving on station (remember that there is now a functioning F22 squadron and AESA equipped F-15's sitting in Elmendorf) - and they can be refueled by CSF's on the south eastern side of Taiwan as they arrive on station. Couple this with the AAR wing sitting in Alaska and the USAF has absolute tempo and only needs to consider reload issues. The USAF reloads become less of an issue as the CSF/CTF closes on approp waypoints.

There is already a CSF within 3 days sailing. another within a week.. All CSF's are able to provide tankerage for F-22's as they waypoint across.

I don't want to travel into the political side of debate, but at a purely tactical level they're not even remotely close to getting the right pressure and tempo in place.

and I haven't even spoken about the other US assets in play.

I really think that Chinas first interest lies in the Indian Ocean.

One must also take into account not just the USN, but all navies in the region, perhaps if China did engage, say for example Indonesia, maybe they would stand some chance, but against serious, technologically advanced advesaries I wouldn't give them a chance.

The only trump card would be any Russian alliance in Naval treaties with China, and maybe a combined Sino Russian presence in the region.

But then again, that is off topic.

Focusing on one weapon platform is not going to win future conflicts, and any Chinese venture into the "CV Club" will probably only be a contribution of a nice target.

 

[tphuang]

Again, at a purely tactical level I cannot see China successfully doing proper coverage. It is also directly contradictory to current doctrine:

- become involved with only one conflict area at any one time
- do not fight away from the mainland and strong air support

The PLAN and the PLAAF are nowhere near ready to contest Taiwan
If they are to protect their commercial assets in extended resource SLOCs like Iran, and traditional SLOCs like the Malacca Straits, then they need fast force projection - they do not have any of that even remotely in place. Thats a 10 year plan IMV.

Taiwan is a classic example of what they can't achieve. An amphibious or PJ invasion of Taiwan has only 4 hours to have absolute dominance. That means that they have to get supporting logistics of 1000tonnes per day every day rolling in on as soon as the first troops land.

None of their sealift or airlift can reven remotely achieve that - especially in contested air space. At the 4 hour mark (assuming USAF support) you have the first F-22's and F15E's from Alaska arriving on station (remember that there is now a functioning F22 squadron and AESA equipped F-15's sitting in Elmendorf) - and they can be refueled by CSF's on the south eastern side of Taiwan as they arrive on station. Couple this with the AAR wing sitting in Alaska and the USAF has absolute tempo and only needs to consider reload issues. The USAF reloads become less of an issue as the CSF/CTF closes on approp waypoints.

There is already a CSF within 3 days sailing. another within a week.. All CSF's are able to provide tankerage for F-22's as they waypoint across.

I don't want to travel into the political side of debate, but at a purely tactical level they're not even remotely close to getting the right pressure and tempo in place.

and I haven't even spoken about the other US assets in play.

I really think that Chinas first interest lies in the Indian Ocean.

It's interesting that you said that, because all the Taiwanese war simulations have shown that they can hold off China for a maximum of 1 week without outside help. Of course, if you throw in American support, then all bets are off. As for sea and airlift, I think China will have 50-60 IL-78 and who knows how many Y-8, plus many new LSMs, LPDs and Zubrs. It's actually not that bad anymore. Again, that is discounting American help.

 

[gf0012-aust]

It's interesting that you said that, because all the Taiwanese war simulations have shown that they can hold off China for a maximum of 1 week without outside help. Of course, if you throw in American support, then all bets are off. As for sea and airlift, I think China will have 50-60 IL-78 and who knows how many Y-8, plus many new LSMs, LPDs and Zubrs. It's actually not that bad anymore. Again, that is discounting American help.

I think the common "mistake" that a lot of people make is that they only look at a US force response via the CSF or by whatever CSF's are blending. In real terms, the US response would not just be generated by Carriers steaming into the contact zone. Responses can be generated out of Elmendorf or even Whiteman. Even the Pac bases in Hawai'i and Guam can generate 4hr responses if feeder points are established. The USAF and USN have more than enough AAR in place at both a land generated and carrier organic level to provide F-22's and F15E's top ups.

An F-22 supercruising out of Elemendorf is not going to take that long to get on station and can be refueled both up and back.

Personally, I've always considered the concept that some people weigh up a CSF reaction time as the trigger point as a bit cavalier - and somewhat blind to other force assets.

It may be 4 days to a week for the first carrier - but it's only 4-5 hours for the first F-22's to arrive. and they have a full squadron plus 2 spare that can be converted to active if needed. Thats 50+ F-22's available as of today.

I can't actually see China wanting to move on Taiwan if the US gets involved, because every day after the end of this November sees more F-22's coming online. A second squadron will be combat active by March 2006 (AFAIK)

The best thing is for all the talk about Taiwan to settle down rather than get "talked up"

 

[Pursuit Curve]

Of course China's overwhelming resources, not overwhelming technology, will be the deciding factor in any invasion of Taiwan, but in one week, the USN will be in theatre, and also with the superior Glbal Reach that the USAF and other fixed wing assets have demonstrated, I would not think that the cost in Chinese lives, prestige, and especially political cost would be worth while in the short or long term. As was pointed out by gf, the traditional thinking that US Carrier battlegroups would be the immediate response is not the only Arrow in the Quiver.

China simply does not have the assets to create a barrier, either on the Sea or in The air, to escort, provide CAP, and also conduct Air strikes or defense suppression to support any amphibious/Airmobileattack on Taiwan, and its Navy is in even worse shape for the job.

 

[dabrownguy]

Lets see what China has to offer for getting those Marinces to Taiwan besides buying a commercial airflight.
14 IL-76 40-50 more on order as of 2005.
50-100 Y-8 (96 troops)
60-80 An-24
Thats just air transports. The naval capability doesn't seem ready either to take on Taiwan.

 

[tphuang]

Of course China's overwhelming resources, not overwhelming technology, will be the deciding factor in any invasion of Taiwan, but in one week, the USN will be in theatre, and also with the superior Glbal Reach that the USAF and other fixed wing assets have demonstrated, I would not think that the cost in Chinese lives, prestige, and especially political cost would be worth while in the short or long term. As was pointed out by gf, the traditional thinking that US Carrier battlegroups would be the immediate response is not the only Arrow in the Quiver.

China simply does not have the assets to create a barrier, either on the Sea or in The air, to escort, provide CAP, and also conduct Air strikes or defense suppression to support any amphibious/Airmobileattack on Taiwan, and its Navy is in even worse shape for the job.

you can bet that China doesn't care abot the lives or prestige or political cost. If Taiwan declares independence, all that stuff can be thrown out of the window. If you think lives of ordinary Chinese citizen actually matter when it comes to a soverignty issue as is with Taiwan, you are sadly mistaken.

Anyhow, as for whether or China has enough to create a barrier. Again, that depends on how quickly the Americans come in. If Americans come in quickly with the F-15s and F-22s, then it's not possible. Outside of that, I will go back to the Taiwanese's own simulation. And I've read about their simulations, they've had PLA doing some really dumb attacks in there.

 

[dabrownguy]

And China still won't be able to achieve victory. China at the moment does not have the capability to send and supply the troops yet.

2nd edit

 

[Snayke]

I know this is political but this is actually counting that US support will actually be existant. I fully agree that Chinese forces would stand no chance at taking Taiwan if US forces reacted. On the political side, I wouldn't be surprised if the US did not support Taiwan in the event of war with China.

 

[tphuang]

And China still won't be able to achieve victory. China at the moment does not have the capability to send and supply the troops yet.

2nd edit

18000 tonne LPD is not big enough for you?

 

[Jeff Head]

And China still won't be able to achieve victory. China at the moment does not have the capability to send and supply the troops yet.

2nd edit

Actually, their growing Amphib capabilities are impressive...and this is without the as-yet-to-be-build LPD.

Check out this comparison page:

PLAN vs USN Amphibious Capability

 

[dabrownguy]

What 18000 ton LPD are you talking about tphaung? I see 7000 ton landing ships.

 

[Pursuit Curve]

Actually, their growing Amphib capabilities are impressive...and this is without the as-yet-to-be-build LPD.

Check out this comparison page:

PLAN vs USN Amphibious Capability

Interesting website Jeff, but still the trouble for China is to escort, provide adequate defense suppression, and also not loose so many ships and aircraft just from Taiwanese defenses, that they can sustain the attack once a beach head is established, and all of this before US support comes to the aid of Taiwan.

Having these platforms in development or in existence is a great achievment for China's prestige, but the experience necessary to achieve its aim of taking Taiwan is sorely lacking in terms of the shear size of the venture. As far as I can recolect China does not have a history of Amphipious Warfare, and no amount of ships and Amphibious hardware will gauarranty success. I would be interested in knowing if the Chinese Navy does have any shore Bombardment capability, outside of missiles and what is the prediction as to how such an operation would develop, keeping in mind that the operation would have to achieve some level of surprise to have any chance, and just how difficult that is these days with surviellance at such a developed level of sophistication.

 

[aaaditya]

18000 tonne LPD is not big enough for you?

is it an indigenous design or the russian ivan rogov class?how many are under construction and planned?
by the way it is not enough if you compare plan's capabilities with the usa.
also i have noticed that the plan vessels do not carry many helicopters,this is one advantage that the us amphibious forces have as the helicopters provide flexibility(troop transportation,asw/asuw,surveillance,casualy evacuation etc),i believe the proposed plan aircraft carrier will have limited troop/material transpoert capability.

 

[tphuang]

like all of the other ships, it's Chinese design. You have to remember that China is building huge oil tankers these days, so 20K tonne supply ships and 18K tonne LPDs aren't out of their reach at all.

According to one of the specs:
normal displacement: 12.3K tonnes
maximum displacement: 17.6K tonnes
HHQ-7 for air defense
2 Z-8 copters
4 LCAC
using a 76mm gun

According to the people on CDF, the first one is under construction in one of the Shanghai's shipyards.

More according to photos and such:

As for the 072 series, a little breakdown:
Just to sum up the LST inventory at this time:
072III (Imp Yuting class): 11: 911-913, 918, 987, 992-997
072II (Yuting class): 11: 991, 934-940, 908-910
072 (Yukan class): 7: 927-933

for 073,
073 Yudao: 1: 965
073II Yudeng: 1: 990
073III: 6(9?): 941-943?, 944-949

almaz
Also, you can figure how many troops can get transported using the 8 Zubrs China is building right now.

 

[PLA2025]

The scenario is that the US would give Taiwan full support with several carrier battle groups and starting jets from Japan and South Korea etc.
But when regarding the interdependency between China and the US, it is unlikely that the US would risk to engage China, while China is also unlikely to attack Taiwan at the current circumstances. A war between China and the US is something the world doesn't need since it might trigger a 3rd world war.

 

[Pursuit Curve]

The scenario is that the US would give Taiwan full support with several carrier battle groups and starting jets from Japan and South Korea etc.
But when regarding the interdependency between China and the US, it is unlikely that the US would risk to engage China, while China is also unlikely to attack Taiwan at the current circumstances. A war between China and the US is something the world doesn't need since it might trigger a 3rd world war.

PLA, you are so right, with the upcoming Olympics it would be bad news, but after the olympics all bets are off. I think alot depends who is in the Whitehouse at the time, and US investment in China, and Vice Versa. But if it does happen, I do not like the prognosis.

 

[gf0012-aust]

All the talk about LHA's etc is really academic though. The reality is that there has been a de-emphasis on amphibious landings as a solution to get men on shore. Opposed landings lost their halo after D Day. None of note have occurred since Grenada and force structures have changed accordingly.

Amphib opposed landings require a greater emphasis on theatre dominance prior to initiation - thats why there is more focus on sieze and hold and then land the force majeur.

Look at the logistics to conduct an amphib operation in a contested theatre. All the numbers are not in favour of an amphib assault on Taiwan. It takes more than an ESF to conduct such an event and the PLAN doesn't have anything remotely close to fielding an ESF let alone conduct an opposed assault with all the necessary dominance issues covered off before, during and after a landing.

 

[turin]

like all of the other ships, it's Chinese design. You have to remember that China is building huge oil tankers these days, so 20K tonne supply ships and 18K tonne LPDs aren't out of their reach at all.

How old is this information? If that would be true, why are the major sites on such issues, like sinodefence.com or chinese military aviation not giving any further info about the LPD?
This would be a major step for the PLAN, since the current sea-lift capabilities rely solely on the known dated designs mentioned in your post and news sites certainly would pick up such procurements very quickly, so I am just wondering.

By the way, the Zubr-class is not being build by China. In fact they buy these eight units from Russia, similary to the Sovremenny- and Kilo-deals. See for example sinodefence for that issue. I am not aware of any licensing agreement, though that may be desired by the PLAN in the future.